05/11/2012 3:22PM

Column Companion: Derby Day Handle



Here is the pool-by-pool comparison between Kentucky Derby Day betting in 2012 and 2011, the data behind the Sunday column you can find by clicking here.



As noted in the column, these figures vary slightly from the ones released by Churchill Downs because I did not include the two-day wagers or non-commingled wagers.

Whackymacky More than 1 year ago
So, a little off base with the greyhounds last night.. www.jaxkennel.com A friend email's me and tells me that this monster Greyhound is racing at Jax Kennel Club in Race #11. His name is Offthebrakedrake. Track record holder in the sprint races... He is running out on the #2 hole. Easy breaker and a monster rusher to the turn!!! The dog goes off at 1/9 with, you quessed it, huge $$ bet on the show pool. Bridge Jumper Alert!!! The lid opens and he rushes the turn to clear by 4 as he hits the turn in front. All of a sudden, he pulls up to what looks like a pulled muscle!!! He drop's back like he is carry in a ton of bricks !!! The race concludes withe the finish being: 7-8-6-3. Our track record holder finished dead last with a pulled musle at 1/9!!! Payoffs: 7. $14.60 $8.20 $20.60 8. $40.60 $59.20 6. $85.60 So, I quess, some of these crazy people live and die by the sword also in Dog Racing !!!! Some great show prices if you can catch them !!! Strange to see that !!!! Whackymacky Out!! Thought that you would like this Steve...
W.G. More than 1 year ago
What is notable here is how field size and type of race can affect handle. While the last two races were both down from 2011 in handle overall, the maiden race, with only seven starters was down substantially from the allowance race that was in that slot (Race 12) in 2011, while the allowance race that was the finale (Race 13) in 2012) was not down nearly as much as in 2010. What also is interesting about these stats is the fact that while the handle on multi-race exotics that included the Derby (not including the Pick 6 because there was a carryover this year where there had not been a year ago), the handle in most cases was up double digits, including an amazing 26%(!) on the Pick Three that began with the Derby itself and 16% on the Pick Four that involved the Woodford Reserve and Derby. Also notable was the nearly 12% increase on the double that came after the Derby. All this bodes well if in fact we do see the 2013 Derby become the first ever to be contested at night. While for now Churchill and NBC have said they expressed no interest in that, I still think what may force it are two things I've mentioned before: 1. NBC needing the TV Rating from the Derby to count in the prime time ratings for the "May Sweeps." 2. Churchill looking to rake in potentially hundreds of millions in new handle from the Asia-Pacific region, where for the Oaks it would be Saturday morning and for the Derby it would be Sunday morning. If Japan and Australia take the Derby full-bore and it were later in the morning/early afternoon for them, then I suspect Churchill would go with a nighttime Derby no matter what some would say about that. My opinion is still that the only reason Churchill and NBC did not look at this year's Derby being the first at night was likely a major concern the much-anticipated fight between Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Manny Pacquiao would not only have been scheduled to take place, but been scheduled for last Saturday night. As it was, a fight featuring Mayweather headlined a pay-per-view event that had 1.5 million buys, the second most ever for a non-heavyweight bout this past Saturday night. A Mayweather-Pacquiao match if it ever happens is likely to obliterate that and every known record for pay-per-view sales, with some thinking that could do five-plus million pay-per-view buys if not many, many more. At the time Churchill had to make a decision on whether or not to have the Derby at night, this likely was playing on the minds of both Churchill Downs and NBC, with NBC likely concerned about an overlap of the race portion of the Derby telecast (that likely would be the third hour of a 7:00-10:00 PM ET telecast if it happened) and the first hour of a pay-per-view telecast of Mayweather-Pacquiao (while the fight itself would likely not start until after 11:00 PM Eastern Time, such telecasts usually begin at 9:00 PM ET). Churchill likely also was concerned that if that fight took place, they would have had to pay through the nose to be able to show the fight at Churchill Downs (in order to assure the largest crowd possible for the first nighttime running of the Kentucky Derby that if it ever happens will likely be in the 200-225,000 range) following the Derby. In addition, Churchill had to likely be concerned about the effect a Mayweather-Pacquiao fight would have had at simulcast locations on the Derby since many of those outlets likely would have had to also pay an arm and a leg to show the fight after the Derby to what traditionally for many tracks is their largest audience of the year among other things. I suspect the threat of that fight taking place on May 5 played a much bigger role in why this year's Derby was not at night than many would otherwise realize, as I don't think many who don't follow boxing realize the kind of records a Mayweather-Pacquiao fight is expected to set if it ever happens.
AlydarandEasy More than 1 year ago
You don't give up, do you? Your obsession with nighttime racing, and the asian/pacific region is somewhat frightening. Are you going to put on your tombstone---"If only they had raced at night". At least there is no mention of changing the name of the Bowling Green Hdcp!!