04/25/2008 3:32PM

Closing Day Carryover


3:33 pm: Heavily-bet firster Alluring Tune ($6.80) kicks off the closing day pick-six with mandatory payout at Keeneland with a narrow victory over favored second-timer Value Stream after a long stretch drive that could have gone either way. They were my two A's in the race, accounting for $720 of my $768 investment so I'm alive on five of my six tickets:

8,11/1,2,7,9,11/3,4,8,11/5/2,5,6/5 ($240)
4,7/1,2,9/8,11/5/2,5/5 ($48)
8,11/1,2,9/9,10/5/2,5/5 ($48)
8,11/1,2,9/8,11/1,3/2,5/5 ($96)
8,11/1,2,9/8,11/5/3,11/5 ($48)
8,11/1,2,9/8,11/5/2,5/1,2,3,6,11,12 ($288)

The first ticket combines all my A and B horses in all six races. The other five tickets each consist of one "C" backup horse and five A's.

So I guess Allluring Tune was my best result since some players probably singled Value Stream, including the TVG host who gave me some jitters claiming there was reviewable bumping down the stretch between the first two finishers. I didn't see any and it seems the stewards didn't either.

As you can see from the tickets, my biggest leans on the play are Spoken in the eighth race and Compromise in the finale. One or the other must win, and if either loses I have to have all A's to stay alive on the backups in those races, assuming I backed up with the right horses.

3:51 pm: This time a photo-finish among my A's didn't break precisely the best way, as 3-1 Bullara held off 5-2 Sir Lowry and 7-2 Master Mizzen, but I'm not complaining: One of the last decisions I made was to elevate Bullara from "B" to "A" status, somewhat reluctantly. Bullara, 2 for 14 with seven seconds, is not exactly a profile in courage. but he did almost win the Forerunner over this course and technically had the top figure off his last start. So the five live tickets all live for a while longer.

Time to make some late pick-four savers of the insanity-insurance variety, hooking up the horses I didn't use on the same tickets in the pick six.

4:18 pm: Dead as a doornail after losing a three-way photo to a Michael Matz horse, just like in the last leg of last Wednesday's big carryover. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. The dogs are hollering for a walk anyway, and that's more important than a measly $1.7 million.

4:50 pm: If you're alive for six at Keeneland after Tazarine's victory at 20-1 in leg 4, call your financial advisor. This was one tough winner. Tazarine had some fast races at Saratoga last summer but appeared to have tailed off badly and was beaten 36 lengths in her last three starts against similar N1x company. Of course those races were on dirt and today was her Polytrack debut, so maybe that explains it. The annoying thing to me was that I thought there was a false favorite in the race in 6/5 Latest Scoop and that Spoken was huge value at 2-1. My single led to the top of the stretch but had no resistance when Tazarine slipped through to challenge her, and settled for second.

5:25 pm: Is anyone alive? Can 4/6 be worth anything? Will-pays are usually slow to come, if at all, on these closing-day carryovers due to the mandatory-payour provision. With an AAXXA result so far, I'm "alive for 4" with both my lone A and my six C's in the finale, and maybe a couple of them are uncovered for 6/6, meaning I'd get some 4/6 consos. And not to worry, commenter easygoer: I did set aside a small saver fund for those pick-4's, so even if this amounts to zilch, I'll still technically be gruntled for the meet. As for Elkhorn winner Dancing Forever, 4-1 was a little generous coming off a narrow loss to Einstein. This 5-year-old finally figured out the game two starts back and if you believed his last two races, he figured right there. And hats off to Brass Hat getting up for third. The 7-year-old was making his first grass start in 2 1/2 years .

Okay, the will-pays are up. One ticket alive to the 3,5 and 6 for a $1.2 million 6/6 payoff. 5 of 6 gets the top prize with anything else, at nothing lower than $21,124 on the 1 and $37,627 on the 2 and 11.

6:05 pm: I'm guessing that one person was alive for $1.2 million to the 3,5 or 6 in the Keeneland finale, so condolences to that handicapper. It would be extremely poor taste to wonder how someone could go three deep in the race and not use second-choice Society Hostess, so I won't. At least that person got at least 3 of what looks like 59 winning 5-of-6 tickets that paid $21,124 -- no wait, the official prices now say it's $25,970. And I haven't been credited for my two 4/6 consos. So I'm thinking the will-pays were calculated and posted on the assumption there would be consos, but that only applied if someone had 6/6. In New York, if 5/6 gets the top prize on a mandatory-payout day, there are 4/6 consos, but it appears the rules may be different in Kentucky. Oh well. I've still got that $2 meet profit burning a hole in my pocket.

Farewell, Keeneland. Churchill opens tomorrow, first post 12:45.

Steven Cedroni More than 1 year ago
Steve, it's the same old story with every track, they always keep bettors in the dark. Keeneland offered a two day wager linking the Maker's Mark and the Blue Grass. Calder offers a two day wager linking the Calder Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Both tracks never posted the possible payoffs before the first leg was run. Both tracks never posted the will pays after the first leg was run. I only got the will pays from Keeneland after sending an email to customer service. I have sent two emails to Calder and have yet to receive a response. Churchill does the same thing every year with the Oaks/Derby double. Two hours after the race is over you can find the will pays on DRF. There is no mention of them on the Churchill website at anytime. It would be nice to see the possible payoffs before the Oaks is run. Does Churchill Downs intend to address this?
AndyScoggin More than 1 year ago
Excellent postings from flip!! That makes for a good day! Write on, flip!
george quinn More than 1 year ago
I do not usually write coulda woulda shoulda blogs, but today my small 336 dollar ticket was 7,8 1,2 3,4,8,9,10,11,12 all 5 6 miss the opener a nose 1-1 with the rest of the world then come flying on the turf with the 1 and 2 in leg 2. This would not be that hard to take nose neck nose but then I had the toughest stretch in the middle. That is how difficult this game is when you have the tough ones and do not get a sniffle. George in Lexington Ky.
tklawless More than 1 year ago
Steve, Saw an interesting comment by Alan Shuback: "Strange decision by Breeders' Cup Sunday's Champions Mile at Sha Tin is the first foreign race to be part of the Breeders' Cup's Win and You're In scheme, giving rise to two questions. Why is this race part of that program when no horse trained in Hong Kong has ever run in the Breeders' Cup? And how does winning a race in April qualify a horse to run in a race that won't be run until October?" Isn't this win & you're in deal going a little too far?
jim More than 1 year ago
Steve, Nice card at big a for a p-6. 4 turf races in the sequence. One a stakes. This one i can play!
george quinn More than 1 year ago
Is it me or does anyone else think Dutrow sounds like Johnny Campo spewing crap about Pleasant Colony back in the 80s? SHUT UP DICK DUTROW! You make us hate you. Same with Rick Porter, If he enters Eight Belles in the Derby, I hope she finishes 20th. These guys are wearing me out. George in Lexington Ky. P.S Have you not had enough already Steve? And the week has not even started Ugh!
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Most racing fans like to see at least 4 efforts between January 1st & first Saturday in May, to build up the horse's stamina, or "foundation." But this idea does have its limits. The proof of this is that, over the years, most of the men training Derby horses that I've selected to win have given them excellent non-profit foundations.... Flip, you've done good. We all needed to be reminded of what a recurring embarrassment Rich Dutrow - successful or not - has been. It's almost as if the heavenly powers that be decided that one Donald Trump wasn't enough - that racing needed its own clown prince.
scott More than 1 year ago
Steve, In your race 8 recap, you wrote: "The annoying thing to me was that I thought there was a false favorite in the race in 6/5 Latest Scoop and that Spoken was huge value at 2-1." I was wondering what you think is more important when trying to determine the favorite in a multi-race exotic: the ML or the off odds. I ask this because in race 8, the ML favorite was the 5, while the 1 was the favorite at post time. While having no data to back up my opinion, I've generally found that the ML is a better indicator of a favored runner in a multi-race exotic, rather than the off odds (not always, but usually). You stated that the 1 was a false favorite and the 5 represented value, but wasn't it more likely at the start of the pick 6 sequence that the 5 would be the more used runner in the pick 6 due to the ML, in spite of the fact that she went off as second choice? Note: the pick 3 will-pays for races 6-8 showed the 1 a slight favorite over the 5 ($602 vs. $672). When playing the pick 6 today, I was trying to decide between the 1 and the 5, and used the 1 because of the higher ML, even though I thought she'd end up being favored when the gates opened. In the future when playing a multi-race exotic, if I can't separate two runners, am I better off estimating the off odds and basing my decision on that, rather than just blindly using the ML?
david More than 1 year ago
churchill's open- so who can see it ? as racing consolidates and fragments , how long before tvg goes to greyhounds ? well at least they'll put up a pick four ticket for palm beach
H. Bird More than 1 year ago
Keeneland released final figures on their website, and it is funny how they contorted their report to downplay how poorly their product was received by the nation's bettors. The track release says that handle was down 5% (comparing total handle from 2007 to this year), but they neglect to note that last year's meet lost a Sunday b/c of Easter. The proper comparison is this year's daily average of $9.4 million with last year's $10.55 million. This indicates a shocking decrease of about 11%, made more remarkable by increased on track attendance, perfect weather, and the success of competitors like Aqueduct and Oaklawn (both showing increases). Has any major race meeting ever posted an 11% decline in handle without extraordinary circumstances???....Seems like some old sayings apply here...."Figures don't lie, but liars figure" (Mark Twain)....."You put lipstick on a pig, it's still a pig".