04/25/2008 3:32PM

Closing Day Carryover


3:33 pm: Heavily-bet firster Alluring Tune ($6.80) kicks off the closing day pick-six with mandatory payout at Keeneland with a narrow victory over favored second-timer Value Stream after a long stretch drive that could have gone either way. They were my two A's in the race, accounting for $720 of my $768 investment so I'm alive on five of my six tickets:

8,11/1,2,7,9,11/3,4,8,11/5/2,5,6/5 ($240)
4,7/1,2,9/8,11/5/2,5/5 ($48)
8,11/1,2,9/9,10/5/2,5/5 ($48)
8,11/1,2,9/8,11/1,3/2,5/5 ($96)
8,11/1,2,9/8,11/5/3,11/5 ($48)
8,11/1,2,9/8,11/5/2,5/1,2,3,6,11,12 ($288)

The first ticket combines all my A and B horses in all six races. The other five tickets each consist of one "C" backup horse and five A's.

So I guess Allluring Tune was my best result since some players probably singled Value Stream, including the TVG host who gave me some jitters claiming there was reviewable bumping down the stretch between the first two finishers. I didn't see any and it seems the stewards didn't either.

As you can see from the tickets, my biggest leans on the play are Spoken in the eighth race and Compromise in the finale. One or the other must win, and if either loses I have to have all A's to stay alive on the backups in those races, assuming I backed up with the right horses.

3:51 pm: This time a photo-finish among my A's didn't break precisely the best way, as 3-1 Bullara held off 5-2 Sir Lowry and 7-2 Master Mizzen, but I'm not complaining: One of the last decisions I made was to elevate Bullara from "B" to "A" status, somewhat reluctantly. Bullara, 2 for 14 with seven seconds, is not exactly a profile in courage. but he did almost win the Forerunner over this course and technically had the top figure off his last start. So the five live tickets all live for a while longer.

Time to make some late pick-four savers of the insanity-insurance variety, hooking up the horses I didn't use on the same tickets in the pick six.

4:18 pm: Dead as a doornail after losing a three-way photo to a Michael Matz horse, just like in the last leg of last Wednesday's big carryover. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. The dogs are hollering for a walk anyway, and that's more important than a measly $1.7 million.

4:50 pm: If you're alive for six at Keeneland after Tazarine's victory at 20-1 in leg 4, call your financial advisor. This was one tough winner. Tazarine had some fast races at Saratoga last summer but appeared to have tailed off badly and was beaten 36 lengths in her last three starts against similar N1x company. Of course those races were on dirt and today was her Polytrack debut, so maybe that explains it. The annoying thing to me was that I thought there was a false favorite in the race in 6/5 Latest Scoop and that Spoken was huge value at 2-1. My single led to the top of the stretch but had no resistance when Tazarine slipped through to challenge her, and settled for second.

5:25 pm: Is anyone alive? Can 4/6 be worth anything? Will-pays are usually slow to come, if at all, on these closing-day carryovers due to the mandatory-payour provision. With an AAXXA result so far, I'm "alive for 4" with both my lone A and my six C's in the finale, and maybe a couple of them are uncovered for 6/6, meaning I'd get some 4/6 consos. And not to worry, commenter easygoer: I did set aside a small saver fund for those pick-4's, so even if this amounts to zilch, I'll still technically be gruntled for the meet. As for Elkhorn winner Dancing Forever, 4-1 was a little generous coming off a narrow loss to Einstein. This 5-year-old finally figured out the game two starts back and if you believed his last two races, he figured right there. And hats off to Brass Hat getting up for third. The 7-year-old was making his first grass start in 2 1/2 years .

Okay, the will-pays are up. One ticket alive to the 3,5 and 6 for a $1.2 million 6/6 payoff. 5 of 6 gets the top prize with anything else, at nothing lower than $21,124 on the 1 and $37,627 on the 2 and 11.

6:05 pm: I'm guessing that one person was alive for $1.2 million to the 3,5 or 6 in the Keeneland finale, so condolences to that handicapper. It would be extremely poor taste to wonder how someone could go three deep in the race and not use second-choice Society Hostess, so I won't. At least that person got at least 3 of what looks like 59 winning 5-of-6 tickets that paid $21,124 -- no wait, the official prices now say it's $25,970. And I haven't been credited for my two 4/6 consos. So I'm thinking the will-pays were calculated and posted on the assumption there would be consos, but that only applied if someone had 6/6. In New York, if 5/6 gets the top prize on a mandatory-payout day, there are 4/6 consos, but it appears the rules may be different in Kentucky. Oh well. I've still got that $2 meet profit burning a hole in my pocket.

Farewell, Keeneland. Churchill opens tomorrow, first post 12:45.