05/01/2010 5:30PM

Churchill: Derby wagering from Mars


Well, Lookin at Lucky finally dipped down to 7-1 with a mere 2,788 minutes to post (okay, okay - it's 'only' 69 MTP), and is the defined Derby favorite for the first time since Derby betting began. Wow. It seemed all week like "wide open race" was the hottest cliche going, but that was one accurate cliche, at least in terms of public perception. Lucky could make a run at Harlan's Holiday's 6-1 standard as longest-priced favorite in the Derby. Super Saver is still 8-1 (Calvin Borel money, for the most part, one assumes) with Sidney's Candy finally showing some movement, too, now at 9-1. Ice Box continues to be remarkably short, 10-1, but not so much as Paddy O Prado, who is 11-1 despite having one career win -- that having come on turf -- and a distant seventh-place maiden finish in his lone dirt start.

Want more? Dean's Kitten is roughly the same price as American Lion. Discreetly Mine - not Backtalk, not Make Music For Me, not Dean's Kitten, not Homeboykris -- is by far the longest shot in the field. Backtalk, whose win this year came in the Sportsman's Paradise at Delta, and who was beaten a mile last out by 21-1 American Lion, is 20-1.

Umm -- help?