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Let's get to a question as well as a few random thoughts.
Haven't been here in a while... have a question perfectly suited for you: what is your opinion on RNA's at sales? On one hand, it can be viewed as a negative because none of the buyers bid high enough... but on the other hand, the current connections, who know the horse best, are not willing to take just any price on their prospect, even if they could make a sizable profit...
I won't let an RNA automatically dissuade me from betting a horse, but I have found underlays in maiden races when the RNA price is woefully short compared to the pedigree/sire's stud fee/previous auction price (or RNA).
Paz the Wine made her debut as the 2 to 1 favorite in the third race at Saratoga on August 25. Trained by Graham Motion, the NY-bred was purchased for $24,000 as a weanling, but was a $14,000 RNA as a yearling. Earlier in 2016, Paz the Wine sold for $45,000 at a 2-year-old in training sale. While she did sell "up" at two, that RNA sandwiched between the two auctions seemed like a red flag. Why was she considered an untouchable commodity in 2015? Paz the Wine finished fourth.
High Jingo ran in the sixth race at Saratoga on August 10. The Shackleford filly sold for $65,000 as an August yearling, but was listed as a $37,000 RNA less than two months later, and was a $35,000 RNA the following April. For some reason, she couldn't find a new home. High Jingo ran well, but dropped a four-horse photo, completing the superfecta as the 3 to 1 third choice.
I also don't like horses that were RNA's at weanling/yearling auctions, but suddenly sell for hot amounts at 2-year-old in training sales. More often than not, the purchase wasn't due to conformation and pedigree, but because of an ultra-fast public workout (of the one- and two-furlong variety). Many times, these horses turn out to be nothing more than one-hit workout wonders.
I do tend to be more forgiving for filly RNA's, especially if they are consigned by noted breeders, as the connections might inflate the price based on broodmare potential as well as racing value.
Take Control might have been the most famous RNA as a son of A.P. Indy - Azeri that was listed as a $7,700,000 RNA at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling auction. The following year, the connections accepted $1,500,000. Take Control won his first two starts, the second following a 30-month layoff, before finishing fourth in the San Diego Handicap and tenth in the Awesome Again Stakes. He was later euthanized after breaking down during a workout.
*Irst (pronounced by Larry Collmus as eye-are-ess-tee) looks like a promising 2-year-old for Todd Pletcher. An $85,000 yearling that resold for $180,000 in March, Irst has plenty of class and stamina in his pedigree.
A son of first-crop stallion Union Rags (winner of the Belmont Stakes), Irst is out of a half-sister to graded/group stakes-winning routers Acoma, Festival of Light and Arch, and is a direct descendant of the great broodmare Courtly Dee.
Considering his route-oriented bloodlines, it wasn't very surprising that he was dismissed at 11 to 1 in a six-furlong dash at Saratoga on September 4. Ridden by Javier Castellano, who seemingly had his pick in the race between Irst and fellow Pletcher-trained firster Commandeering (the 5 to 2 post time favorite), Irst took some time to find his footing and he trailed going into the far turn. Showcasing some professionalism, he rallied along the rail turning into the stretch, split horses and was moving well late for second behind the gate-to-wire winner. Irst galloped out best and seems primed for a one-turn route race at Belmont in the coming weeks.
*I really enjoy Japanese racing, but I don't like the idea of a "series" of two relatively unimportant one-mile races determining an automatic berth into the Kentucky Derby.
It seems like a slap in the face to American breeders and owners that spend copious amounts of money in search of a Derby starter.
With the UAE Derby winner perhaps rewarding a Japanese/Dubai-based/European entrant, and this series awarding a berth to a Japanese starter, there is a possibility that there will be only 18 spots for American-based horses...for America's biggest race. As Mr. Hegarty's article notes, Churchill Downs Inc. is looking to get a foothold in a potentially lucrative gambling market. Their bottom line shouldn't come at the expense of stateside horsemen, however.
Of course, some horseplayers will now scour the Japanese 2-year-olds in search of a possible Derby Future wager. This one landed on Epicharis, a nine-furlong debut winner at Niigata on August 14? A half-brother to a multiple group-winning turf runner, Epicharis is by dirt-loving Gold Allure. In his debut, he went right to the front, rated kindly on the lead, and was never in any danger late.
*Mike Beer and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis at 4:00 ET on Saturday. You can find us at live.drf.com. This week, we'll cover Belmont, Woodbine, Churchill, Los Alamitos and more.
*You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
*Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 8/31/16 - 9/6/16
1. SHAMAN GHOST - 106 - Woodward Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 3Sep16-10SAR
2. RING WEEKEND - 103 - Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 5Sep16-9SAR
3. WONDER GAL - 100 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 2Sep16-7SAR
4. POWER JAM - 99 - Pirate's Bounty Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 5Sep16-3DMR
5. FREE ROSE - 98 - Del Mar Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 4Sep16-8DMR
6. DISTINCTIVE B - 97 - Clm 40000(40-35) - 6 Furlongs - 1Sep16-2DMR
6. HOT SEAT - 97 - Md Sp Wt 51k - 6 Furlongs - 6Sep16-3PRX
6. LADY SHIPMAN - 97 - Turf Amazon Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Sep16-6PRX
6. ROYAL POSSE - 97 - Evan Shipman Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - 2Sep16-9SAR
6. SUFFUSED (GB) - 97 - Glens Falls Stakes (G3) - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 3Sep16-11SAR
11. ANGRY MOON - 96 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 4Sep16-9SAR
12. A FLEET ATTITUDE - 95 - Banjo Picker Sprint Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 3Sep16-5PRX
12. AWESOME SLEW - 95 - Smarty Jones Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - 5Sep16-9PRX
12. CATHRYN SOPHIA - 95 - Princess of Sylmar Stakes - 1 Mile - 3Sep16-8PRX
12. HOLY LUTE - 95 - OC 75k/C -N - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 31Aug16-6DMR
12. KOBEL - 95 - Roanoke Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 3Sep16-9PRX
12. LUCY N ETHEL - 95 - Prioress Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - 4Sep16-11SAR
12. MELMICH - 95 - Elgin Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - 31Aug16-3WO
12. SCUBA - 95 - Greenwood Cup (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles - 5Sep16-7PRX
12. SILVER RIDE - 95 - Alw 85000N1X - 7 Furlongs - 3Sep16-8SAR
12. SUCCESSFUL NATIVE - 95 - Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 3Sep16-9KD
22. AVENGE - 94 - John C. Mabee Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 4Sep16-6DMR
22. INSPECTOR LYNLEY - 94 - Saranac Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 3Sep16-5SAR
22. IVAN FALLUNOVALOT - 94 - Alw 40000NC - 6 Furlongs - 1Sep16-8RP
22. JACKS ESCARPMENT - 94 - Kenora Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 31Aug16-4WO
22. KLIMT - 94 - Del Mar Futurity (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 5Sep16-5DMR
22. LONG HOT SUMMER - 94 - OC 100k/C -N - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 2Sep16-7DMR
22. NONNA'S BOY - 94 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 3Sep16-6SAR
22. SEA COAST (IRE) - 94 - Steve Pini Memorial Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 3Sep16-10SUF
22. SECRET SOMEONE - 94 - Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 3Sep16-7KD
22. STREET FASHION - 94 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 4Sep16-3SAR
SHAMAN GHOST's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 9/7/16 - 9/13/16
1. COMFORT - 103 - Seattle Slew Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Sep16-3BEL
1. WATCHYOUROWNBOBBER - 103 - More Than Ready Stakes - 1 Mile - 10Sep16-7KD
3. STACKED DECK - 100 - Ontario Jockey Club Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 11Sep16-6WO
4. AIN'T GOT TIME - 98 - DTHA Governor's Day Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 10Sep16-11DEL
4. SOI PHET - 98 - E. B. Johnston Satkes - 1 Mile - 10Sep16-8LRC
6. ALLIED AIR RAID - 97 - Unbridled Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep16-10LAD
6. DA BIG HOSS - 97 - Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep16-9KD
6. FLATLINED - 97 - Old Friends Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Turf) - 8Sep16-9KD
6. ONUS - 97 - Lady Baltimore Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep16-7LRL
6. TOEWS ON ICE - 97 - OC 62k/N$Y - 6 Furlongs - 11Sep16-7LRC
11. CONQUEST ENFORCER - 96 - Allied Forces Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - 11Sep16-5BEL
11. DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING - 96 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Sep16-7BEL
11. STAR STUDENT - 96 - Alw 36366NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Alw 36366NC
11. TEXAS CHROME - 96 - Super Derby (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - 10Sep16-11LAD
15. I LOVE YOU HONEY - 95 - Alw 25000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 13Sep16-8PRX
15. PROTONICO - 95 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 Mile - 9Sep16-3BEL
15. TAMMY THE TORPEDO - 95 - Violet Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep16-9MTH
15. WAR DANCER - 95 - PTHA President's Cup Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep16-10PRX
19. TENANGO - 94 - OC 25k/N1X - 7 Furlongs - 9Sep16-8GP
20. BREAKING THE FEVER - 93 - Hcp ---s - 6 Furlongs - 12Sep16-8FL
20. MISSISSIPPI DELTA - 93 - Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 10Sep16-10KD
20. ONE GO ALL GO - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 10Sep16-6KD
20. OSCAR NOMINATED - 93 - Dueling Grounds Derby - 1 5/16 Miles (Turf) - 11Sep16-9KD
24. CLEARER VIEW - 92 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep16-9WO
24. DREAM TEAM - 92 - OC 62k/N$Y -N - 1 Mile - 9Sep16-7LRC
24. LIGHT THE NIGHT - 92 - Alw 77000N1X - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - 9Sep16-5BEL
24. OLD HARBOR - 92 - George Rosenberger Memorial Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep16-10DEL
24. TRY YOUR LUCK - 92 - Dueling Grounds Oaks - 1 5/16 Miles (Turf) - 11Sep16-8KD
The lifetime past performances for COMFORT and WATCHYOUROWNBOBBER are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*Congrats to Samuel Proud for winning the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
Let's go with Saturday's Woodbine Mile for this week's exercise
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
$10 EX 6 / 1,2,5, 8 = $40
$5 TRI 6 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,5,8 = $60
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|SHAMAN GHOST.pdf||688.38 KB|
|Copy of HG 9 3 16 SAR OPC.xls||52.5 KB|
A good day at Belmont yesterday. +$3015 ROI but missed that $7k pick 5 for 50 cents.
These are tough Annie!! Catch that 19-1 shot in R2..Looked good the rest of the way.
Who said this game was easy???
Gunner Runner has a tough race ahead. Needs a win. My MKB selection needs the front!!
Good Luck All!!
PARX has a nice day set for Saturday. The Cotillion seems more of the same we have seen this year with Songbird controlling things. I see no reason the house horse beats her although her numbers are within striking range.If you beat a special filly you should get paid nicely. I don’t see Cathryn Sophia paying nicely even if she pulls the upset. Who knows who wins the PA Derby. This 3 YO group takes turns beating each other. Last year the PARX marquee day was soiled by bandit Ramon Preciado running a juiced up Trouble Kid in the Gallant Bob. Gamblers were robbed but add it to the list. Gamblers are resilient folks. We are back again betting the track with Preciado in full bloom. But beware of Preciado again on Saturday. He has a handful of price types entered. Not a bad idea to include his horses regardless of form. Groundhog Day could be 09/22/16.
Saturday race of day is PARX #4. You have this lineup of trainers to navigate:
Jorge Navarro, Jason Servis, Ramon Preciado, Guadelupe Preciado, and Jamie Ness. Suggestions - Holy water, rosary, darts. alcohol, Ouija board, ALL button or call a local Chemistry professor?
A horse that seems to be in a hurry is Summer Revolution. This is the Summer Bird son who is a 3 YO. He ran a couple of eye poppers at SAR this summer. Thrown in the deep end in the Kings Bishop he was certainly not embarrassed fading a bit to 4th. Now he tries the PA Derby. Anybody remember Stradavari who was rushed into the TC after a nice effort. Gone. You get a nice horse so rarely I like patience but who knows.Summer Bird’s do get ground. I hope this one holds together and progresses. Mike Smith on board so that helps.
Worst spotted horse candidate in America – Queen Esther in the Cotillion? She broke her MDN for 40. Has cleared a couple of conditions in average efforts. Most recently beaten 15L in a recent PARX stakes. Sure let’s jump into a G1 for $1M. Her last 3 BSF’s are 70/77/73.The conditions does not say they pay for 6th place but if she beats somebody she will get $30k. Frankly I don’t see anybody she beats other than Disco Rose. I hope Esther takes care of herself. She probably shows speed and is hung with a major fade. Seems a poor spotting to me with other reasonable options out there.
One of my favorite horses American Patriot runs at LRL Saturday. I have done okay with him so he must be SPECIAL. ;-) I liked his explosive late runs earlier in the year but with blinks he is proving to be a bit handier. The long stretch at LRL might suit. If he wins you won’t get rich.
Angelie Jolie and Brad Pitt are on the rocks. Who ever saw that coming? Actually they had a nice run by Hollywood standards. Till death do us part generally is not a literal statement for big screen types. What lasts longer Hollywood marriages or trainer/owner marriages. Who you got?
Great reading folks...Back at Belmont today.
Pick 5 on 50 cents tickets x 5 times.
1,2,6 / 1,2,5 / 2,6,7 / 1,2,3,/ 3,4,5,7.
Win / Place wagers
Google the phrase "joy Scott Go Fund Me."
The last three races of the late P4 sequence at Parx on Saturday are for 3YO with some big names and interesting horses.
Prx 11. Field of 12 3YO lined up to go for $1.25 million at 1 1/8 miles in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby including Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Summer Revolution, Cupid, My Man Sam and Connect. While Nyquist is the favorite at 5/2 and has never really run a poor race, I think longshots Hit It Once More and Wild About Deb actually have a shot in this field and both are listed at 20/1.
Prx 10. The G1 Cotillion for 3YO fillies contested at 1 1/16 miles for $1 million features undefeated Songbird in a small field as the 1/2 favorite. However, two other top 3YO fillies are signed up. Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia are also entered as is perennial runner up Land Over Sea. This will be Songbird’s sternest test yet and she has to travel. However, her last two works at SA were amazing. Plus she gets big time rider in Mike Smith, who only won a handful of G1 races at Saratoga in just two handfuls of rides.
Prx 9. This is an interesting race. Thress are wild here as The G3 Gallant Bob with a purse of $300K for 3YO will be run a 2x3f (i.e. 6f) on the dirt. The favorite is the third place finisher out of Kings Bishop, Noholdingback Bear, He ran a good race that day, but I am still a bit skeptical. He is 5-4-1-0 on the artificial stuff at WO, but 4-0-2-1 on the main. Threefiveindia from Chad Brown and Mind Your Biscuits round out the other favorites. However, given that 3YO CA horses are still coming east and winning races (see Drefong and Arrogate at Sar), I lean towards Navy Hymn, who has the CA speed and the Hollendorfer/Smith combo with Who’s Out.
Sorry to hear about AK’s Candy – maybe an 870 yard race in the evening at Los Alamitos would get her over the top – she has LOTS of stamina for a quarter horse. :)
Great post – that’s all that needs to be said.
Congrats - nice job.
Correction: The Northern Dancer, not the Canadian.
Thanks for your support on AK all the way. I appreciate it. She tries but is compromised like so many claiming horses. My intent was to never own and race horses and certainly no more than one. We still have Curveball Lily on the IR. That biz plan got diverted so you play the hand dealt now. I get little joy out of it. I don’t expect to jump for joy even if she had won by 15L. I am a realist so the economics preclude celebrations if they ever are warranted. Most folks want to be seen in the paddock, barns,possibly the winners’ circle. I would not do any of that even if I was there on site. I stay away on the front side letting business do business. Drinks in the evening possibly would be the extent of it. So I ride out the last furlong with her. I am against paying $1,000 to ship this quality of horse to the FG. Rather a max drop/claim or private fire sale works for me. The problem is as a minority owner I have more say in running Microsoft than AK’s Candy. Again the realist in me.
I agree finding a low priced favorite with flaws is better than finding a lock low priced favorite. Frankly I thought she should fit strongly in the race. Win it maybe, but losing it was no surprise. With air flow you get these scenarios. I suspected the Capuano was really live. I bet a lot of races and the fact I have not played a single nickel should tell the community something. Two of the three races she has ran the winner was haveable as long shots. Now in her next start, assuming there is one, it will be interesting to see her odds. Say on a drop to $10k will the weight of the betting public again come in. Speed/fade types on drops always take tonnage. God bless them on that.
The humblest of "Thanks" for my congrats for my Photo Finish contest win over Joe L. last Saturday. It's been a long time between drinks for me here due to a lot of tough players. I just got back from a getaway with no internet, phone signal or TV, it was well needed. Hope to put the Formulators to good use since my freshening. Hope you all like my Saturday's race. Thanks again, Mooch
I've been away for a bit and was saddened to see Lenny Moon quitting horse racing. It reminded me of more than ten years ago when I went from lurker to poster on Formblog. There was a poster asking for help concerning his time/money spent handicapping and its affect on his family. The outpouring of support from the posters here was tremendous, and made me feel safe that this is a spot where I can learn and talk in a constructive way. Lenny is receiving much support in the comment section of his blog. Coincidentally, many posts are from Formbloggers. This outpouring definitely shows the spirit of friendship we have all shared over the years, whether it is concern over gambling habits, the loss of beloveds, the death and illnesses of individual posters, the loss of our pets and even the hurt and bewilderment we experience when the world at large seems cruel and indecipherable. For many of us, this is home.
I have been pretty shaken up by September in general. On September 11th, 2001, I lost at least 15 friends and another dozen acquaintances. On the actual day itself, seven children whose parents were killed, spent the evening in my backyard while my neighbor and I cooked on the grill for them. You see, their mothers needed some time alone to scream, cry and perhaps down a drink or two without alarming their kids. Besides losing my friends, it was soul crushing to listen to the kids speculate that they would soon be hearing from their dads when cell service was restored. Though fifteen years have passed, the anniversary hasn't become any easier for me and I can feel the anxiety and sense of loss start building up in the days before 9-11. This year was no different. Just when that feeling started to pass, the bombing in Chelsea occurred. My son lives just about 8 blocks from the blast. However, the second the alert hit my phone, a huge jolt went through my body. Luckily he responded to my text immediately and laughed at me for being a nervous Nellie. It was the next day when he read the news reports of the timing and the address of the blast. He was less than a block away, so my intuition was spot on.
When I was feeling the worst, I picked up the phone and called a Formblogger. We are lucky to have this community. We all have other friends and family we could talk to, but there is something special about the love of this game and it's magnificent athletes that binds us together.
Moderation is over rated when it comes to enjoying your children's games. They know you are there and it means something, whether they verbalize it or not. My son played three sports (some were travel too) from kindergarten until his freshman year of high school, and even then, it was two varsity levels for three years of high school. Once, when Dave was in seventh grade, I had a commitment to meet the Bishop of my diocese with a woman I was sponsoring to become Catholic. Of course, my son's basketball team added a tournament game that conflicted. I explained to him that I couldn't attend. Fifteen minutes later, my event was cancelled due to illness of the Bishop. (Yay!) When I called my son to confirm the time and place (It wasn't my weekend), you could hear the joy in his voice, "Mom, your perfect record is intact!" I've never forgotten that whenever I considered blowing off a game or a family event for horse racing. Did it kill me to miss American Pharoah's Belmont win because of a high school graduation? (Almost.) I've missed five Kentucky Derbies because of First Communions. Don't even get me started on weddings and the Preakness. The bottom line is, there will always be another race. You only start with one set of family and with luck and love, that family expands and grows over the years due to the tending you make for it, much like a beautiful garden. It requires care, commitment and good soil.
Regarding the Canadian and The Woodbine Mile: I had zero time to handicap this weekend, but wanted to see Tepin. As luck would have it, I caught the Canadian too, beginning with the post parade. Only two horses stood out to me physically, The Pizza Man and Wake Forest. Both looked much better than they did at Arlington. World Approval did not look as well physically as he did at Arlington and he did not impress me that day. Tepin, physically, did not impress me in the post parade. Her stride looked much less than fluid, and was in my opinion, choppy, in the last bit of the race. She hung on to win with sheer guts and that she had the jump on the closers.
Regarding Marcus Vitali: I hope there is a special place in hell reserved for trainers who knowingly run a horse with a slab fracture of their knee. Florida's enforcement of medication rules is a joke. Gulfstream is just about unbettable. Navarro at Monmouth is a disgrace. The powers that be seem to thumb their noses at any sort of integrity of the product that horse players are expected to bet on. It's sickening.
Earlier, we had discussed a bit, the possibility of arbitraging a wager. For instance, if you are live to half the horses in the last leg of a pick 4 and know the payoffs, then possibly you could place win wagers on the uncovered horses to guarantee a profit. Those profits for the wager could range from $1 on each uncovered horse to the Pick 4 payout on a covered horse, less the original Pick 4 wager, less the win amounts.
Looking at AK's Candy from a business perspective, The Horse Owners' Business, you will share in any purse money that AK's Candy earns. If you had another business, The Wagering Business, you could wager against AK's Candy as long as it is deemed profitable. There is no conflict of interest, there is no insider information being used that is not known to the general public.
At the end of the year, after all taxes and expenses are paid and profits can be taken, as long as the profit pot is larger than it would have been with only one business, what is wrong with that? (OK, I can think of a few things like time invested vs. return, but this is a philosophical argument)
If you owned gas stations, why would you not want to sell diesel fuel also or in the near future have a quick charge station for electric cars?
Or, if you had a parka/winter clothes manufacturing company, what would be wrong with also owning a Sunscreen company for people that wanted to go naked? Is there a conflict of interest here?
Actually, this has gotten me to thinking. Maybe I should be looking around much harder for more AK's Candy types (false favorites) and jumping in with both fists, rather than always looking for horses that can't lose to looking for horses that will lose and take lots of money with them.
Wow, a 7 horse field, and a $1 trifecta paid $239 with the 4th, 3rd &2nd favorites in order and an $889 Super with the 5th favorite, fourth, all because a favorite ran out of the money.