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Thanks to everyone that entered the FormBlog Breeders' Cup Fantasy Handicapping League.
We have 483 contestants. KYL syndicate is in the lead with 1378 fantasy earnings.
I am currently in 34th place and have some work to do.
If you haven't joined yet, there's still plenty of time to do so.
Head on over to https://www.fantasycapping.com/illman
The league password in DRF123.
You can find league rules here:
This week's race is Saturday's Pennsylvania Derby from Parx.
Here are two horses to look out for over the next few weeks:
The 3-year-old half-brother to Grade 1 winner Dreaming of Julia is undefeated from three starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 105, 102 and 105 at Gulfstream Park. A $335,000 RNA as a yearling, Atreides is a Stonestreet Stable homebred by Medaglia d'Oro out of multiple Grade 1 sprint winner Dream Rush.
In his most recent effort, the $75,000 Monarchos Stakes contested over a one-turn mile on August 30, Atreides was bumped a couple of times in the opening furlong before settling into a nice rhythm stalking the pace. He cruised up to the leader while racing in the two-path, took over the lead under a very confident Edgard Zayas and drew away to win by 17 1/4 lengths while under wraps late.
His trainer, Marty Wolfson, indicated that the Indiana Derby on October 4 will be the next destination for Atreides. It remains to be seen what Atreides has beaten in Florida, but he has sure looked good.
The 4-year-old son of Lion Heart has really picked it up this form cycle for trainer Eddie Kenneally. The multiple Grade 3 winner returned from a two-month freshening to finish second behind Itsmyluckyday in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile before placing second to Valid in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup.
He returned to his winning ways with a professional score in the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap at Churchill Downs on September 6 and has now earned three consecutive triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (100, 108, 104).
In the Ack Ack, Bradester broke well and set the pace while racing well off the rail. He took heat from RIGHT TO VOTE through solid middle fractions, made the front on the far turn, and dug in gamely to fend off CARVE's late surge.
Expect Bradester to ship to New York for a tilt in the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont on September 27.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 8/6/14 - 9/1/14
1. RIVER ROCKS - 110 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 31Aug14-3SAR
2. ITSMYLUCKYDAY - 108 - Woodward Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 30Aug14-11SAR
2. STONETASTIC - 108 - Prioress Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - 30Aug14-8SAR
4. ATREIDES - 105 - Monarchos Stakes - 1 Mile - 30Aug14-9GP
5. WISE DAN - 104 - Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 30Aug14-5SAR
6. PALACE - 101 - Forego Stakes (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 30Aug14-10SAR
7. C J'S AWESOME - 100 - Alw 85000N1X - 1 1/8 Miles - 1Sep14-8SAR
7. MAKE YOUR MOVE - 100 - Clm 25000(25-20)N4L - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 31Aug14-3PRX
7. RING WEEKEND - 100 - Saranac Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 1Sep14-9SAR
10. BROADWAY EMPIRE - 99 - Alw 35000N1T - 1 Mile - 1Sep14-2CBY
10. BROKEN SWORD - 99 - Tranquility Lake Stakes - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 31Aug14-7DMR
12. SNAKE PIT - 98 - OC 50k/N3X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 30Aug14-11MTH
12. TUJOES - 98 - OC 25k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - 31Aug14-7PRX
14. MISS SERENDIPITY (ARG) - 97 - Yellow Ribbon Handicap (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 1Sep14-9DMR
14. SHARP SENSATION - 97 - Turf Monster Handicap (G3) - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 1Sep14-11PRX
16. BLUE TONE - 96 - Harry F. Brubaker Stakes - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 30Aug14-3DMR
17. CARY STREET - 95 - Greenwood Cup (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles - 1Sep14-9PRX
17. GENTLEMAN'S KITTEN - 95 - Cliff Guilliams Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 1Sep14-8ELP
17. IRISH MISSION - 95 - Glens Falls Stakes (G3) - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 31Aug14-6SAR
17. MIDNIGHT STORM - 95 - Del Mar Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 31Aug14-9DMR
21. BIG CAZANOVA - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack) - 28Aug14-2DMR
21. PROTONICO - 94 - Smarty Jones Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 1Sep14-10PRX
21. RED OUTLAW - 94 - El Cajon Stakes - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 29Aug14-6DMR
21. TAPPININTOVICTORY - 94 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 31Aug14-8TIM
25. ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR - 93 - OC 20k/N1X -N - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 29Aug14-5DMR
25. EL KABEIR - 93 - Md Sp Wt 83k - 7 Furlongs - 30Aug14-4SAR
25. STREAMSIDE - 93 - Alw 35840NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 31Aug14-4GG
25. SUPER SOLDIER - 93 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 1Sep14-6AP
*The lifetime past performances for RIVER ROCKS are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 9/2/14 - 9/8/14
1. RENEESGOTZIP - 106 - C.E.R.F. Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 3Sep14-4DMR
2. BRADESTER - 104 - Ack Ack Handicap (G3) - 1 Mile - 6Sep14-4CD
3. JOY BOY - 102 - OC 50k/C - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 3Sep14-8IND
4. AMERICAN PHAROAH - 101 - Del Mar Futurity (G1) - 7 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 3Sep14-8DMR
5. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE - 99 - Super Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 6Sep14-11LAD
6. GOLDEN TICKET - 98 - Left Bank Stakes - 1 Mile - 5Sep14-8BEL
6. LEGENDARY (GB) - 98 - Japan Racing Association Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Sep14-9LRL
6. RAINBOW HEIR - 98 - New Jersey Breeders' Handicap - 6 Furlongs - 6Sep14-9MTH
9. ZA APPROVAL - 97 - Real Courage Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 7Sep14-4BEL
10. BENWILL - 96 - Unbridled Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Sep14-10LAD
10. TOASTING - 96 - Sky Beauty Stakes - 1 Mile - 7Sep14-3BEL
10. TRAFFIC LIGHT - 96 - Roanoke Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Sep14-10PRX
13. JOES BLAZING AARON - 95 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 6Sep14-8BEL
13. MISS MISCHIEF - 95 - Alw 36440NC - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Tapeta) - 4Sep14-2PID
15. BERN IDENTITY - 94 - Dave's Friend Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 6Sep14-8LRL
15. FAST N FINE LOOKIN - 94 - Alw 30000N1X - 5 Furlongs - 6Sep14-2RP
15. RED RIFLE - 94 - Yankee Affair Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 6Sep14-9BEL
15. SHEER DRAMA - 94 - Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes - 1 Mile - 6Sep14-6LRL
15. SOI PHET - 94 - Los Alamitos Mile Stakes - 1 Mile - 6Sep14-8LRC
20. CLARK KENT - 93 - Md Sp Wt 75k - 6 Furlongs - 7Sep14-5BEL
20. MIKE MAN'S GOLD - 93 - Muckleshoot Tribal Classic Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 7Sep14-9EMD
22. ANKENY HILL - 92 - Pirate's Bount Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 3Sep14-2DMR
22. GLICKMAN - 92 - Clm 20000N3L - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 5Sep14-5BEL
22. LAILA'S JAZZ - 92 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 6Sep14-3BEL
22. RUSTLER HUSTLER - 92 - Banjo Picker Sprint Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 6Sep14-9PRX
*The lifetime past performances for RENEESGOTZIP are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 9/9/14 - 9/15/14
1. TARIS - 102 - Alw 31680N3L - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 10Sep14-4PID
2. CASTLETOWN - 101 - H.P.B.A. Sprint Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 12Sep14-6CBY
2. FREE WORLD - 101 - OC 80k/N3X - 1 Mile (Turf) - 13Sep14-10CD
2. STORMIN MONARCHO - 101 - DTHA Governor's Day Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 13Sep14-5DEL
2. TRADE STORM (GB) - 101 - Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1-C) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 14Sep14-11WO
6. LUBASH - 100 - Ashley T. Cole Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 14Sep14-4BEL
6. SHEIKHZAYEDROAD (GB) - 100 - Northern Dancer Stakes (G1-C) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 14Sep14-6WO
8. SUNTRACER - 99 - Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 13Sep14-9KD
9. CALGARY CAT - 98 - Bold Venture Stakes (G3-C) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 13Sep14-4WO
9. VALID - 98 - Alw 43600NC - 1 Mile - 11Sep14-4GP
11. DECEPTIVE VISION - 97 - Canadian Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 14Sep14-9WO
12. ANNECDOTE (GB) - 96 - Noble Damsel Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 13Sep14-7BEL
13. TWO NOTCH ROAD - 95 - Punch Line Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 13Sep14-9LRL
14. DREAMING OF NENO - 94 - OC35k/SAL25k - 6 Furlongs - 12Sep14-3GP
14. I'M ALREADY SEXY - 94 - Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 13Sep14-10KD
14. REGALLY READY - 94 - More Than Ready Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 13Sep14-7KD
17. MARGANO - 93 - PTHA President's Cup Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 13Sep14-9PRX
17. UNZAPPED - 93 - New Castle Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 13Sep14-11DEL
19. BALL DANCING - 92 - Sands Point Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 13Sep14-8BEL
19. BALOOGA BULL - 92 - Gold Cup Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - 13Sep14-5ASD
21. I FORGOT IT'S NAME - 91 - Clm 16000N2L - 5 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 12Sep14-2AP
21. LOCHTE - 91 - The Vid Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 13Sep14-9GP
21. NATES MINESHAFT - 91 - OC 50k/N2Y -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 13Sep14-3RP
24. DOUBLE OURS - 90 - Clm c-25000 - 6 Furlongs - 13Sep14-6CD
24. LUKES ALLEY - 90 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/4 Miles (Polytrack) - 12Sep14-8WO
24. MAGNA BREEZE - 90 - Alw ---s - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Sep14-3IND
24. POWER PED - 90 - Alw 105000N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Turf) - 13Sep14-3KD
24. SAINT OF SAINTS - 90 - Clm 30000(30-25)B - 7 Furlongs - 14Sep14-3CD
24. TIZ WINDY - 90 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 13Sep14-3CD
24. W. B. SMUDGE - 94 - Clm 25000(25-20) - 6 Furlongs - 13Sep14-7IND
*The lifetime past performances of TARIS are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*DOUBLE OURS was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Brad Cox from Randy Morse.
I believe I was mistaken in my previous post about the Timeform Ratings. DRF used to use Timeform? and then they moved to the Racing Post Ratings?
Anyhow, my basic question is the same. Where are they?
We switched from Timeform Ratings to Racing Post Ratings several years ago. I believe our initial agreement with The Racing Post expired, but I did hear that we recently renewed our partnership. I'm trying to get answers concerning the arrangement and will let you know as soon as I find out more.
*The links to the five most recent blogs (and blog comments) are listed below:
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
The video previews for most of this weekend's graded stakes action will be available later in the week at the following link:
Congrats to Paul G. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling race.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.
Let's go with the Pennsylvania Derby for this week's race.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|Copy of Formblog Woodward 8-30-14.xls||76.5 KB|
On Anonymous’s comment abt lowered take-out rates at SA:
How does that change any single bettor’s bottom line, really?
Steve T its been years since i posted here and i am one one those old timers,these young wippersnappers that talk about the horses of today well they have their own opinions and are in their minds right,but you and i know in our lifetime we have seen the best there ever was,SECRETARIAT...the horses of today could not shine the hoof of BIG RED,and why is he the best well...kd,preakness,and belmont records,no one before or now can come close to his times,keep posting Steve,and i also love that song I LOVE LA!!!!!
HG $50 EX BOX 5/11 This race could easily come up boxcars. It saddens me the decimation that the older horse division has taken, particularly re the Breeders Cup Classic. Wise Dan, if he is the same horse this year, should point there. As it relates to HG, I'm picking an older horse I don't think is particularly strong, because the race is weak enough he fits- Prayer for Relief. His Woodward puts him right there, I'm not convinced Moreno is as good at Belmont and his last work indicates the improvement he showed in the last could continue. I struggle with who to pair him with, but will use Moreno. Rick
Turnbackthealarm, Really enjoyed your account of the day at Arlington Park races. I hope you will forgive me if I say that my own abiding memory is not of betting systems, not even winning horses, IT WAS of everyone having FUN, win lose or draw. You were a really nice crowd. Of course, some days are more important than others, and some days the betting is pretty important, but Arlington Park on 6th Sept was just a really great day out. Thanks. Best Regards - Bernard Downes
Sharpie - I'll finish what I started later :) It's nothing unusual for a horse to get beat off a 4 month lay-off . Especially if the winner breaks an old track record in Racehorse Time for any track ! I only saw the replay but ... I saw a horse catch a flyer from the gate and a jockey that spent more energy giving back what the horse already took for free then he would have if he just would have let him go. The best race he's ever run is his wire job . It's right in the Form ..... UH OH ... Victor already admitted after the Preakness that he doesn't make a plan and he doesn't READ the Form ?!?!?!!?? I would have fired him right then on TV !!!! It seems like a pretty good paid workout time wise . I'm not touting him for the BC but he's already proved to be a pretty good & fast horse that can carry the weight on his day . Shared Belief is a Gelding . If Budroyale , Tiznow's genetic duplicate could only muster 2nd because he was gelded why should I think SB can win it . At least I got good place money on Bud . I didn't understand that no geldings have won the BC Classic back then . I think I'll stick with whole horses in the win hole until geldings start to win their fair share . No OLD horses have ever won the BC Classic either . NOT EVEN ZENYATTA !! If The Mystery Horse shows up nobody gets to go slow . I have my doubts if Bayern could shake him off like Dude did and still keep running at the end . Moreno is hard to like but he's a trier .He needs a slow front running trip that he won't likely get . Bayern or no Bayern . New York is a pace horse . JJ
The Grand Finale! Race 10-Maidens, long on the grass, two year olds SR and I both picked In the Chamber and Cosmology I admit to not remembering all the bets here because a) It was late b) I was tired c) I was hungry d) I realized late that GIANT OAK’s full baby brother, Oak Brook, was in the race, and e)there were a couple of silly names and favorite sires. Giant Oak’s brother, Oak Brook, from the left side was a fantastic looking piece of race horse. Then you saw the right. He was riddled with rain rot!!!! That’s disgusting. It’s a fungal rash a horse gets from either being left out in the rain and not drying out properly or from being groomed with a brush that has not been cleaned properly that transmits the disease. YUCK!!!!!! Chadwick was a diminutive chestnut who was the spitting image of his daddy, English Channel. He was a little headstrong like daddy too. I couldn’t take my eyes off him. Furthering my attraction to In the Chamber was the fact that he was partially owned by Princess Kathy Stables. Fort Dixie was a lovely horse that caught my eye, so much so, that it must have been that subliminal message that made me actually punch in this one’s number (when I decided NOT to be him) instead of In The Chamber’s on one of my tickets. The race itself was crazy, so if you can get a replay, watch. The third place horse lodged an objection against the first place horse and the fourth place horse lodged an objection against the second place horse. Both horses had legitimate complaints, but after about 15 minutes and all our collective Formblog wisdom, we couldn’t figure out how to make the race work with the objections the way they were. So, the stewards let the results stand, because, I assume, THEY couldn’t figure it out either. Numbers deserved to come down, but there was no way to do it fairly given the way the fouls occurred. In the end, it was: In the Chamber E. Esquivel $21.40 $10.40 $6.80 Oak Brook E. Perez $4.80 $3.80 Fort Dixie E. Perez $4.00 Chadwick was fourth. As for me, I had $5 to show on Fort Dixie, accidently, on the Ron Z ticket. I had $5 to show on Oak Brook, $2 ATB on In the Chamber and lost my exacta box with In the Chamber and Chadwick on my side bet voucher. I may have had some other combinations, but I failed to write them down. So, the final result of the day was that I made $3 net on the Ron Z voucher and $15 net on the TBTA side bet voucher, so I did make money, just not much. But most importantly, the experience of trying another person’s (at least sort of, almost) system was a blast. And as always, THANK YOU DAN ILLMAN because without you, I would never have had such a PRICELESS DAY!
Part 3 of Arlington Park with Bernard Race 7 Arlington Washington Lassie Stakes for two year old fillies SR and I both pick Sugar Talk because it’s my dog’s name. For handicapping, she picks Puntsville and I pick Happy to Go. Lemon Gala and Quality Rocks look best in the paddock and now I am in a quandary. Silly name or best looking? So, I bet $5 to show on Sugar Talk AND Quality Rocks. Sugar Talk runs last and Quality Rocks wins and pays $3.40 to show. Race 8-Grade 3-Arlington Washington Futurity for two year old males Both SR and I have the same picks: Ike Walker (silly name) and Recount. We have our eye out on Seraph because he is a Kantharos baby a new Steve T sire pick. One Go All Go wins the paddock beauty contest with Mr. Lightning Boy a close second. But I stick with Recount because he looks good in the paddock too. Recount wins and pays $2.80 to show and One Go All Go pays $3.40 to show. So, I win, but not as much as I could have. For the record, Seraph took a hard left out of the gate and nearly hit the rail. So, then he recoils and bolts nearly to the outside rail. Luckily, no horses were bothered or injured. But it sure could have been a disaster. Race 9-Allowance NWx1, 5 Furlongs on Turf (Uh oh, I stink at these and also forgot to handicap this race beforehand. Must have been the drink……….) SR picks Voodoo Spell and BLUE GRASS DAN!!!!!!!!!!! First off, all Formbloggers placed the token bet of their choice on Blue Grass Dan to give thanks for the incredible gift Dan Illman has given us with Formblog. Unfortunately, he finished off the board, but we all agreed it was money well spent. Then, what do I do? I haven’t handicapped, I hate turf sprints and I am not exactly cleaning up with my show bets or my other side bets. I decide to pass. Then, I see HAWK’S IMAGE. He is gorgeous, big, dappled , on his toes and acting like a horse who is happy to be there. However, he is the second longest shot on the board, morning line. As all but SR Vegas were at the paddock, I asked everyone else what they thought of him. All agreed he was nice looking. He simply towered over the field in looks. So, in deference to my Ron Z experiment, I bet him to show on my parlay voucher and ATB on my separate voucher. I believe everyone but SR Vegas went and bet him too. Well, we were surely rewarded handsomely. Hawk's Image paid $33.00,$8.60 and $3.60! Now I am up again on my show bet voucher and on my “other” voucher too. I believe Bernard really killed it and wagered quite a bit more than I did. Needless to say, all Formbloggers were smiling after this race. The next part is the last part!
Part 2 of the Epic Day at Arlington otherwise known as "Welcome to America, Bernard Downes Day". * I forgot to add into part 1 that all our handicapping on paper occurred on the Thursday night before Saturday's races while we were drinking my new favorite drink, a Mediterranean Mule. The recipe is one can Ginger Beer (can be, make that should be non-alcoholic), 1 1/2 oz Fig Vodka, 1 1/2 oz Rum and the juice of half a lime. Pour over ice in a tall glass. Don't be dumb like I was the first time and have the alcoholic ginger beer. I had two drinks and the results weren't good. I should also add that quite a few beers were consumed the night before the races when we took Bernard to an "authentic" British pub in Chicago. Speaking of bad results, on to handicapping: Race 4 $5000 Claimers NWx4 SR picks La Pinata, Exactness TBTA picks La Pinata, Prince of Madness Pig Bodine picks an exacta of Emile-Jost Van Dyke Grudge Match wins the beauty contest, but I just can’t pull the trigger because of his record. Prince of Madness looks much prettier than La Pinata, so I bet $5 to show on Prince of Madness. I also miss out on the Pig Bodine exacta because I am only betting my “show parlay” method, so I am bummed out on missing a $133.20 exacta for $2 even though Prince of Madness pays $3.40 to show. But hey, I’m back in business! Race 5 $50000 Claimers NWx2L (whoopee!) SR picks Spooky Vision, Kitten’s Song TBTA picks Spooky Vision The longest shot in the field, Spooky Vision, was 6-1 and that is the horse both SR and I picked. Well, except I didn’t bet it. Instead, I choose Forget the Name because the turf was yielding and he was the only horse that had a positive race over it. Guess who gets beat for third? Yep, Forget the Name. Spooky Vision finishes second and I am back at ZERO again. Race 6 Illinois bred $50,000 Maiden Claimers SR picks Win D Prado TBTA picks Peej, Cadet Captain My notes say “no one looks good, no one looks bad” in the paddock. So, I bet $5 to show on Cadet Captain who had longer odds than Peej. The horses finish Cadet Captain, Win D Prado and Peej. I get $3.20 to show. At this point in the day, I am getting peeved about the exactas and trifectas I coulda woulda shoulda won. So, I go get another betting voucher and decide to play the show parlay on my first voucher and whatever I feel like on the second voucher. The other turning point is this is where Chicago Gerry joined our merry little band of Dennis and Rose of Moline, SR Vegas, Bernard Downes and me. Anyone that knows me, knows that when Chicago Gerry arrives, my focus and concentration go straight into the toilet because he and I have WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY to much fun together. I absolutely adore him.
Epic Tale of the Ron Z show betting parlay (almost) method Parameters: Try to find a horse that was not a favorite that you think could hit the board, preferably at 4-1 or better. When in doubt, prettiest horse gets picked. All my bets were for $5 or more, but I am showing payouts from the Results page of DRF which gives $2 payouts. Setting: Arlington Park September 6, 2014. There were two stakes races for two year olds, however, the first 5 races were low level claimers and other assorted horrendous conditions that indicated that most of these horses need to be retrained for a second career. Race 1-Illinois bred Maidens SR picks Run Fort Run, Leon Robert TBTA picks Lewis Cielo, Leon Robert However, Leon Robert was the prohibitive favorite, so Lewis Cielo it is. I bet $5 to show . He pays $2.80. I’m up a couple of bucks. Griffin the Great who was the best looking horse in the paddock and who was hammered down from 30-1 to less than 10-1 finishes last. Leon Robert finishes second. Race 2-$7500 claimers NWx3 SR picks Peligrosa, She’s Telling Tales TBTA picks Peligrosa, Lordliness Lordliness looks best in the paddock, but since both of us liked Peligrosa, I bet $5 to show and she pays $2.20. Lordliness broke down and was vanned off. I’m up, man this game is easy!!!! Race 3-$5000 claimers NWx4 SR picks Johar Irish, Nobel Bird TBTA picks Johar Irish, Space Traveler (the very very very short priced favorite and on paper, deservedly so) My handicapping notes say look for lameness in Nobel Bird and Devil’s Tower, and neither looked “off” in the paddock. The beauty contest winner by TONS was Fox Rap who had not even picked up a check of any kind in over a year and a half, which could have been longer, but that is as far back as the PPs went. So, had I parlayed my earning of $7 plus the $5 I planned on betting per race, I decide that Space Traveler who was like 2-5 would merit a $10 show bet instead of $5. After all, he was the paddock announcers best bet of the day, Joe Kristofek’s best bet and the AP line makers best bet of the day. Silly me, why didn’t I notice that this race was a short field and ripe for a Whacky Macky special????? Guess what, Space Traveler finishes off the board, Nobel Bird paid over $40 for a $2 ATB and my paddock beauty contest winner who hadn’t paid for himself in over a year? He pays $7 to show. So, instead of earning $35 on this race, I am down to 0. SR doesn’t know it yet, but she punched in the wrong betting number and has the winner!!!!!!!!! End of part 1
Stockton bad Ben should be ruled off. Big wind which makes speed horses fade. Good day to take notes for later n the meet