02/27/2009 6:07PM

Catching up

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Thank you for responding to my wishlist comment, but that is FORMULATOR. It just looks so complicated. I have used the old basic format for so long that I worry I won't have the time to learn how to get around in it. (Frightened of mechanical things and advanced technology computer stuff). And, no Uncle Steve, I don't do snowblower maintenance or plowing with those scary things.
Annie

For many, many years after the first version of Formulator was released, I scoffed at the technology.  I thought it would be too difficult to learn, and was terrified of losing all of my data.  Of course, my data consisted of marble notebooks full of trip and bias notes, and I would have to go back through my books if I wanted to transcribe my notes onto the past performances.  My peers laughed as I would drag a knapsack full of foolishness to the racetrack while all of their information was on their personalized past perfornances.  Finally, I took the bait.  My challenge was to find the flaws, and point them out to these tech geeks that were so dependant on their computers.  Of course, in finding the flaws, I also found that I was saving hours upon hours of work.  In one place, I could save all of my notes, look up charts, and get just about any trainer stat possible.  Now, with the Formulator Web, I can get video replays, and pedigree reports, and there is more on the way.  I would advise any handicapper to at least give it a try.  I'm sure it's not for everyone, and it may not be for you, but it deserves a glance.  Now I know you said you gave it a glance in the past, but there's some good stuff there, and you can customize it to your needs.  One more chance?

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Dan, could you possibly update us on Cost Of Freedom? Will he ever race again? What's happening on this front. I miss him.
slewofdamascus

After failing a prerace physical on three separate occasions, Cost of Freedom was finally taken out of training in mid-January.  You can follow his progress on the Disabled List on the right side of the blog where I will record his workouts, entries, etc. whenever they occur.

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Thanks for your help before.  Can I ask a third (and I hope) last time on some?
Again all are female, all appeared at the Keeneland Mixed Sale. 
Fortune in Faith 3 y/o $20K
Garden Music 4 y/o $10K
Granny's Tale 3 y/o $35K
Imagistic 5 y/o $50K
PGM

Not 100% sure about any of these, but Fortune in Faith was purchased by a bloodstock agent based in California with ties to South American racing. As a sibling to Grade 1 winner Valid Angel, she most likely will become a broodmare although a SoCal start is possible.  Imagistic was purchased by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, and may be bred to one of their stallions.  Garden Music has a nice pedigree, and it's possible that she'll be bred right away instead of continuing her racing career..  Not sure about Granny's Tale, but I'm going to guess that she'll retire unraced, and be bred.

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just a question Dan
do you know where the workout track
listed as Classic Mile is located?
John Lyons

The Classic Mile is a training center in Ocala, Florida.  For more information, check out their website at:

http://www.classicmile.com/welcome__

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Dan,
I really like your Derby Top Ten and I like HB. I was wondering, who from the honorable mention list you think might have a chance to jump up and suprise. I was thinking Giant Oak for one
.
chicago gerry


Giant Oak is certainly on the bubble as his Risen Star trip was terrible.  Flying Pegasus ran well in the Risen Star in his first start off a significant injury.  Patena has tons of potential, and is now with Dutrow.  Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy get a big shot in the Gotham, and Take the Points is a very intriguing sleeper in the Sham.

***

Dan-Could you possibly give me the last 3 beyers for That I Am- Before I call Mike and lobby for his next race I'm trying to confirm my theory that he just doesn't like Oaklawn and will be a much better horse back at Hawthorne. (If my theory is correct, 25K at Hawthorne, if not, 14 or maybe 18)
Stephen L. Taylor

Here they are:

2/8/09 - 45
1/19/09 - 66
1/3/09 - 74

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Could i get a little help from the pedigree people out there about this horse's chances in the derby?
The name is ORTHODOX.
He just won at FG on the turf today in his 1st race back after popping and stopping in the in the BC juvenile turf. (as my pick, but anyway) What are his chances, pedigree wise?
tencentcielo

I'm thinking that trainer John Glenney is going to keep this one on the grass ala his solid older stakes horse Transduction Gold.  Orthodox is by Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass winner Pulpit out of Dominique's Joy, a Grade 3 winner that raced exclusively on grass.  The third dam was a stakes-winning sprinter on the main track as a juvenile.  The fourth dam was a Grade 2 winner on the main track, and the fifth dam won the Barbara Fritchie and Black-Eyed Susan.  He should have plenty of stamina, and there is dirt way back in the pedigree, but closer up in the bloodlines, it appears he'll prefer grass.  Laura's pedigree analysis of the horse is top-rate so if you haven't read it just yet, scroll back a few posts.

***

Dan, i know it wasn't a weekend stakes race, but can you provide the Beyer figure for Rail Trip's allowance win last week? I really feel he may be the best horse in the country.
Orientate

Rail Trip earned a career-low 96 Beyer registering his fourth straight facile victory.  He's obviously a talented runner, but hasn't faced the big boys just yet.

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Dan -
A couple of questions regarding the Disabled List 2008/09 that appears on the right side of the blog.
Who compiles this monumental task?  Do you have a team that adds information into the Google Docs on a daily basis?
And how are retirements and private purchases handled? Especially how does one know that the horse that's now returning to training is under the tutelage of a new barn. Is there a way to find out before the horse is entered in a race?
Thanks much to the DRF team.
The_Knight_Sky

I started the Disabled List thanks to a wonderful idea by Steve T. way back in 2007, and have kept it updated every since.  I wish I had a team to help me compile the information, but I don't, and sometimes I can fall behind a little bit.  In a perfect world, I would update every single day.  I have a WatchList for every horse on the current list, and add in workouts and entries when they become available.  Most of the information is gleaned from the wonderful nuggets of knowledge our beat writers provide in the daily paper.  Other bits and pieces are taken from "on-the-record" discussions with horsemen. 
When a horse is publicly retired, or I am contacted directly by the owner, I will add the horse to the retired list.  As for private purchases, it is a bit difficult to keep tabs on those kind of horses until they are entered back, or I hear a specific piece of information pertaining to the horse.

***

Dan,
Do you think Criminal Type belongs in the HOF? Would you post his lifetime PP's?
Steve T

He had an awesome season in 1990 when he vanquished Easy Goer, Sunday Silence, Dancing Spree, Opening Verse, Housebuster, Ruhlmann, etc.  Hall of Fame-worthy career?  I'm not so sure.

Here are his past performances:

Download Criminal Type

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Dan,
Do you have any information on Augustusthestrong (A.P. Indy-Fire The Groom by Blushing Groom)?
Calvin Carter

Augustusthestrong is trained by Aidan O'Brien in Ireland for the powerful Coolmore conglomerate.  He raced once at two, finishing sixth in a maiden race over the polytrack at Dundalk.  Here are his past performances. 

Download Augustus

He is a half-brother to Stravinsky, a multiple Group 1 turf sprint winner in Europe, and Moscow Ballet.

***

Here are some quick and dirty selections for this weekend's stakes races:

Canadian Turf:  Just as Well
Fountain of Youth:  This Ones for Phil
Sham:  Take the Points
Davona Dale:  Justwhistledixie
Baldwin:  Flashmans Papers

Best of luck to all.  Will combine two weeks worth of Beyer recaps on Monday as well as the usual weekend thoughts.

Take care,

Dan


 

 



 

 


 

 

 

 


 

 


 

robertSD More than 1 year ago
Mathieu - Welcome back. Any chance you are going to the Big Cap? I am thinking of taking the drive up from San Diego since I actually have a Saturday off for a change. Would be great to catch up and play the ponies like we did a few years ago -- oh ok, like more than 20 plus years ago. - robertSD
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
Hey Blue; Thank you for the kind words, but I have to tell you that while I felt that my handicapping was sound, the results bellied my thinking. After going over the charts and my notes from Gulfstream Park, I saw how many of the winners were playable, while my choices simply failed to fire. My major assumptions entering this contest was that approximately $120 was what it would take to win the thing. I truly felt that Jack Spratt had a big shot in the FOY, and that meant that I could go with my logical selections in the races prior. None of my selections were really that bad, but the best that I could muster was four 3rd place finishes. But what really drove the bad experience home was that I made no money on the nine races at Gulfstream. Truly, I mean to say that I didn't cash a single ticket from those races. Nada. I am not sure when that has happened to me in the last ten years. So when I knew the competetion was over for me, I figured I had a few tasty wins on $.10 Superfecta's from Santa Anita. I was startled to learn otherwise. It made for an amusing bed-time for my lovely wife, Kim. I snuggled-up next to her last night after our guests had departed, and regailed her with how I managed to lose every single wager I had placed for the day. She was snoring before I made it to the 7th at Gulfstream, and when we arose to a beautiful morning today, all she remembered was that I somehow put her to sleep with "another horse-racing story" Contrary to Saturday's results, I know that I'm a lucky guy. Thanks for the note.
James Mc. More than 1 year ago
Vicstu: Thanks for the FOY link. Watching the replay, it seems for a second a few yards into the race that NOTSP is going to run up to the lead, Elvis seems a little uncertain possibly about what to do, he's fighting him a bit, and then about a quarter mile into the race he makes a firm decision and puts him under a strong hold as Break Water Edison goes by him. Anyway, I'm a big fan of the horse so I hope he gets some time off and then comes back in sprints. The path you suggest for Affirmatif makes sense, conceivably he could run in the Lane's End (3/21) and still make the Bluegrass on 4/11, he might have to run in both to rack up enough Graded $, it sounds like an incredibly ambitious schedule for a horse that just made his 1st start but somehow I think Pletcher is going to take a shot and see what he's got.
Laura More than 1 year ago
Hi Lawduck good to see you. The Pamplemousse was foaled on April 19, 2006.
Blue Horseshoe More than 1 year ago
RE: Fractional splits at Gulfstream Dan, Alan, Steve T, others, I've been suprised that there hasn't been much interest in this topic but when you guys look at the data from Gulfstream Park, what do you think of my theory that there is a problem with the placement of the 6 furlong pole or at least the timing mechanism??? It looks very obvious to me that the splits starting from the mile pole in the chute suggest a first 1/4 mile that is longer than a 1/4 mile and that the splits from the 6 furlong pole to the 1/2 mile pole suggest a distance that is less than a 1/4 mile... What do you guys think???
Annie More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, Glad you're back from the pits! Thanks for the heads up on the allowance race on Friday. Good to see your boy is finally going to run. Be careful not to bet too much, you saw what happened to tencent. Lol On the other hand, if you see another Annie horse, bet the farm! :) Annie
Causeways37 More than 1 year ago
CaseyJeaux & anyone else for that matter: For the past 5-10 years on TC Trail, I've noticed alot of people putting alot of emphasis on "gallop outs". My question is, does it really matter? I mean how many horses have we seen on the TC Trail that have had a great gallop out and have not followed that up with a win? One horse that really sticks out to me is ATWHATIMTALKINABOUT. Remember that horse? He had a huge gallop out of about 8 lenghts or more on the field in the San Felipe I believe and didn't run a lick in the derby. I've heard alot of people buzzin' about Mr. Hot Stuff's gallop out in the Sham and I'm thinking to myself "well where in the hell was he when the real running started"? There's a reason why he caught up to the "Mousse" on the gallop out. It was the end of the race! He didn't have to run anymore! Then I here everyone talk about how he'll improve when the distances get longer. Well, last I heard, the only time the distances get longer is in the TC races! How often are races run farther then 9f's? He better start picking it up if he wants a shot at those longer distances. I can't wait to see what these "gallop out" types do in there next starts. Like Patena for instance. I really hope he runs up the track b/c of his impressive "gallop out" in the Lecomte. Sorry that I went off in a rant but the only time I believe an impressive "gallop out" should be kept in mind for next time out is if the horse had traffic trouble in the race.
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Annie & tencentcielo... What funny OLA stories! LOL ...and Annie, I think you should put a min bet on ANY ANNIE horse you see at the moment! SR Vegas
Annie More than 1 year ago
Chicago Gerry, What about CC? Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Calvin, Where's CC? Annie