05/13/2008 10:31PM

'Cappers, Workout Analysis, Unbridled Heart, etc.

Email

Handicapper(s) of the Week:

Bold RlrH G-3, Going to play alitte value in this one. W/P, #1 Man of Danger 6/1ML.
MOD won his only other race over the Belmont surface. Levine is 28% off a lay off.
Will add Man of Danger with #3 Lucky Island, and #4 Forefathers in a Tri/Box. 
johnnyz


Nice triple box for johnnyz.  It returned $287.00 for each two dollars wagered.  Excellent play!

4-Best and best value 8-,
9-the 3
4-Best Value 5,
7-Best Value-2
larryk


larry k, wow!  Held Up certainly was the best value at $52.60.  Tremendous!  Street Boss won the ninth as well.  Dee Rain paid $42.40 in the fourth at Hollywood on Sunday.  Towzee paid $7.60 in the seventh.



Race 2
CROWN OF DIAMONDS was well on her way to becoming a very nice filly when she ended up on the bench. Her first run back was a very nice place to Silent Kitten in a very rough race. Second time off layoff should be good enough.
Dr. Derango:  Could be a good move, changing HELD UP to sprints, trainer stats support at 23%. Last couple of works have been outstanding, could be an easy winner at big odds.
Tough, tough race to handicap. STREET BOSS is definitely on his way up and is running in his first graded stakes. Last out 106 was on cruise control.
Another mediocre race with some potential bright spots. HINT OF LAVENDAR had a very nice first time start in a MOC 30 at Turf Paradise followed up by a disastrous break in his second start. Like Tyler Baze aboard, seems like he will be a good fit for this horse. With a decent break she should be right there.
Interesting MSW race with a good selection of first time starters. EL LEGADO has been erratic but always puts forth an effort. Gets Bejarano and has some good works.
TOWZEE has three straight 90+ runs in turf sprints, just missing each time (including two runs from the 1 post in downhills – the kiss of death). With his consistency and this field, it should be time for a break out.
Dr. Derango:  Lots of good fillies here, and I am going with the second time starter MILLION DOLLAR RUN (30/1) who was caught at the bitter end by Bella Roja. Rosario should provide a little more run for her and a significant improvement is certainly not out of the question.
Steve T



Los Angeles H - Street Boss will get a chance to take on stakes competition and has been even more impressive than the pp's show.  Time to show who's the boss of this street.
Afi



Steve T. and his alter ego, Dr. Derango had another very, very productive weekend.  Crown of Diamonds paid $6.20 in the second on Wedenesday, and Held Up returned a whopping $52.60.  Street Boss won the Los Angeles at $4.80.  El Legado paid $13.00, Towzee paid $7.60, and Million Dollar Run returned $31.40 on Sunday.  I think we should all take up an alter-ego as a way of handicapping the races.  Seriously.  Sometimes, we can get stuck in our ways when looking at a race or series of races.  Coming up with a "wacky" uncle, or whatever, can allow you to think outside of the box in the search for different angles, or ways to analyze a race.  As Steve T. and the good Dr. have consistently taught us over the last few weeks, it's a strategy that pays off. 


Bold Ruler - Lucky Island
Sedonia



The addition of Lasix has really moved Lucky Island forward.  He paid $9.20 while earning "Big Beyer" honors over the weekend.

Lone Star Derby:
El Gato Malo is in a perfect spot against a weak field. The rider change is huge as Flores had some problems with him the last two races. If he runs back to his San Rafael, he dances in this race.
 


Go East, young horse!  That's where the money has been for many of the synthetic Southern California runners when they ship out of town. 

vicstu also had El Gato Malo on top as well as Street Boss and some other nice selections.


Senorita: Sweeter Still
Kyri



Sweeter Still is a very consistent filly on the grass, and she survived an objection to score at $5.00.


***


In addition to Sedonia's post, would also appreciate an update on the condition of the filly, Miss Cozy Cat, who broke down and fell in that 6th race at HP.
She wasn't famous like Eight Belles. Just a maiden with 5 starts, two seconds and a third, but she deserves to be acknowledged.
Annie


Miss Cozy Cat was euthanized on the track after breaking down during the sixth race. 

***

All,
There have been some decent races run in Europe over the last 2 weeks. Check out Zarkava in the French 1000- she displayed a few different gears to get up for the win. Also, Pascal Bary's Natagora took the English 1000. Bary always seems to be dangerous with those filly milers. He sometimes shows up (and wins) in the Breeders Cup Mile with them. This one was super-game, but time will tell how she pans out this season. Henrythenavigator and New Approach had a pretty entertaining stretch duel in the 2000 as well.
C


Here is Zarkava's French 1000 Guineas score:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=68Yp7OIU-kk

Natagora's English 1000 Guineas win:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ykSd5l_DBw4

Henrythenavigator prevails in the 2000 Guineas:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=FMUqYW-pXzU

***

Dan -- Have you ever given thought to posting the lifetime PPs for the stakes winner with the lowest Beyer each week? I think it would be a nod to some of the hard-knocking types who earned a big win. Hey, a trip to the winner's circle is a trip to the winner's circle.
Mike


Why not?  We'll give it a try next week.

***

Dan,
On the DRF Preakness website, they have an Pedigree Profile on Big Brown, but there aren't any other Pedigree Profiles for the other Preakness contenders (...and they used Lauren Stich's Derby profile for Big Brown!)  Has DRF decided not to do Pedigree Profiles on the other horses??
Alan


I haven't heard anything about it.  If they aren't put up soon, I could do a little write-up on the blog (although certainly without Lauren's style and panache) for the other contenders.  Heck, some of our posters give excellent pedigree analyses in their own right.  I'd love to hear what Laura, johnnyz, and others have to say about the Preakness bloodlines.


***

Dan,
I've won my fair share of dough by ignoring speed figures and sheet numbers. I thought Big Brown beat nothing in the derby. A horse is measured by when their looked in the eye, ask Bernardini, and this horse has yet to be. Don't get me wrong he is a beautiful mover but Ky. Bear, Harlem Rocker and Casino Drive have impressed me as much as BB at one point or another. Tell me honestly what you think of BB, don't be afraid to trash what everyone seems to think is another Secretariat. Thanks!
Hillbilly


Big Brown may have beat nothing in the Derby, but that's not his fault.  Dutrow puts him on the track, and he beats everything he sees.  It was the way he did it that got tongues wagging.  You're not supposed to be four wide all the way around the track, and still blow the race open at the quarter pole.  I'm not going to put him in Secretariat's category right now.  That's ridiculous.  Big Brown has only had a handful of races, and has yet to be truly challenged.  That being said, he's won his races like a very good horse.  I don't want to saddle him with words like "great."  For now, he's a very good horse with the potential for higher accolades down the road.

***

Just want to be the latest to congratulate owenized on the purchase of his juvenile filly, Storm Princess.


***

Let's talk about some of Steve T.'s interesting handicapping angles in tomorrow's blog as well as discussing record holders for wins, a mare named Freakin Streakin', lightly-raced horses in the Belmont, how to handicap multiple cards at once, and a look back at a past champion.

Take care,

Dan