04/15/2008 6:36PM

'Cappers, tons of stuff


Handicapper(s) of the Week:

Selections:Kland, OP
k 5:4,7,11,10
k 7:3,6,7,1
Ark Derby:
Gayego, Z Fortune, Tre Borocho
3:Wide Open Race-Best 6
5:Best 9
10: 10,1
larry k

larry k had a nice weekend.  Dan's Pride won at Keeneland, and the seventh race exacta returned $98.20.  Plus, he had the COLD trifecta in the Arkansas Derby for ($503.60 for each dollar).  Irish Express paid $9.60 in the first at Santa Anita.  Santa Teresita returned $6.80 in the third.  Giant Gem got up at $6.80 in the fifth.  The La Puente cold exacta paid $23.50 for a buck.  Great picks!

Dan or anyone
Monba had throat surgery since last why? Keep watching the Cashcall Futurity, he ran by everybody including CJ in the gallop out. Last was too bad to be true.
crazy rob

I think horses like Monba and Medjool who like cushion or Big Truck who seems to be working really well for this make more longshot sense.  We will see...
Nick Briglia

In looking at the Blue Grass, and after reading the comments on here about dirt to poly and cushion to poly not having the best results, what about the only two horses in the race that have actually won on Keeneland's polytrack: Monba and Halo Najib? And then there's Cowboy Cal with the turf to poly angle. All three are at 15-1. AND, their jockeys are Gomez, Velazquez and Prado!

I'm not going to lie I have no clue what is going to happen in this Bluegrass Derby. But I will try to beat the favorite with a little $1 exacta box of five horses.
Race 9: Box 3,5,10,11

I'll join the long shot bandwagon in the Blue Grass, landing on Monba
Since I have defended the quality of the West Coast horses, however, I won't wimp out now.  Gayego bobbeaux

I'm going with MONBA here with the thought that he has to win to get in.
I will stick to my California bias and take GAYEGO. He beat Bob Black Jack in his last race and I do not see any other horse in this race that is as good as BBJ. a couple are close, but none better. He will rate off the swift early pace of Victory Pete, My pal Charlie, and Tres Boracchos. take over in the stretch and hold off

Todd Pletcher did a great job getting Monba back to his best form after the colt suffered from various ailments.  crazy rob got $18.00 for the Monba pick.  Hopefully, Annie and Brett connected with the Pletcher exacta at $139.00.  bobbeaux and cayman01 correctly paired up the winners of the two big Derby preps with Monba and Gayego.

Race 7- on paper the pace should be slow so I'll be taking a stab with a couple horses that should be near the front. Moonshine Hall goes for his fourth win in a row off a year and a half break for Mark Casse. I didn't follow fairgrounds this year, so I'm not sure what kind of horses he beat in last 2.  Recent work seems to show he's still in good form. 

Nice work with Moonshine Hall.  He returned $15.20 at Keeneland.

Blue Grass – Monba
SANTA TERESITA is a young filly on her way up. She has a win and place at the distance against quality competition. This is a jump up in class, but she has handled all of her previous promotions and is a winner on turf and the main track.
The usual collection of ham hocks in the Super Five race. MR. ELROY steps down from the MSW ranks and should make short work of these, especially at 5.5F.
Race 2 – Kris Silver
Race 3 – Jungle Wave
SECRET SHUTTLE has two very nice wins in two tries at this distance; next stop will be a stakes for him.
Hold onto your hat, STREET BOSS ran a work of 1:09/4, the best since the track reformulation. I think he want to play boys and girls!
Note that my all time worst call, Outer Space, is running in this race. If he wins I will shoot myself, but with a lifetime Beyer of 38 I think I am safe, maybe. I have no clue as to why RAIL DANCER hasn’t broken his maiden; these should be no challenge to him.
Steve T

You nailed the upsetter in the Blue Grass.  Santa Teresita continued her ascent with a nice win at Santa Anita.  Mr. Elroy tried stalking tactics, and they suited him just fine in the finale. Kris Silver and Jungle Wave teamed up for a $27.60 Daily Double, and Steve T gave out three more winners on Monday's card.

SA Race 10 - Tiz West( #9) has been running better each start. I liked him enough early in the year to put him as a wild card in my RTTR.

The beautifully-bred Tiz West came through at Santa Anita in the La Puente.  He paid $9.60.

Keeneland Race 8:
#6 Rebellion to win

Rebellion is another one of the good turf horses to succeed on polytrack.  He paid $10.20 in the Commonwealth.

In the Arkansas Derby, I like Gayego to win if he can last. and I think he can relax enough to do just that.
As for the Holy Bull, that one is easy enough to pick from with such a small field. I like Hey Byrn keyed with the 1, 5, 6, and 7. I may p/wheel the 2 Hey Byrn over those as well. Now watch this race be anything but predictable.

And Gayego makes his 57-1 future book odds look awfully good with an authoritative score at Oaklawn.

Gayego in the Arkansas Derby
Hey Byrn in the Holy Bull,

Gayego in the Arkansas.
Seattle Smooth in the 3rd at Bay Meadows, although Russell will probably be bet to crap.
Supah Blitz

On to Louisville for Gayego.  The son of Gilded Time showed that he could handle nine furlongs in the Arkansas Derby.  The Holy Bull looked like a three horse race on paper so $37.40 for the tri isn't bad at all.  Seattle Smooth paid $6.40 at Bay Meadows.

Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) --> 1. Hey Byrn
Race 6, Jenny Wiley Stakes --> 1. Rutherienne

JenyWily: Rutherienne

The ultra-consistent Rutherienne returned $14 in the Jenny Wiley. 

Arkansas Derby
#2 Tres Borrachos

Pacesetter Tres Borrachos paid $14.80 to show in the Arkansas Derby.


Dan, love the site by the way, question for you or any of your other knowledgeable fans: do you know how I can easily find out what names a given horse was registered under if I have the hip number they sold under at a give auction? (ex. 2007 Keeneland 2-year-old-in-training Auction). I want to be able to analyze racing earning performance versus sale prices the horses went for at many major 2YOIT auctions...but difficult to do with only auction results because I don't know the names the horses eventually raced under.
Thanks, Tyler.

Try this site if you have the name of the runner's dam.  Type in the dam, and the year of birth for the foal, and you should get a name (if it's been accepted yet by the Jockey Club)



Do you have any information on the trainer David A. Cannizzo?  Winning percentage in previous years? Does he stay in New York year round?

According to the DRF database, Cannizzo has 35 lifetime starts with 4 wins, 4 seconds, and 2 thirds (11% wins, 28% ITM, $0.79 ROI).  He has started horses at Aqueduct, Belmont, Finger Lakes, Delaware, Laurel, Meadowlands, and Monmouth.  I believe he is based in New York, but am not positive.


Ready's Image reminds me of one of my fave horses, Charlevoix, in the Mott stable. He was the same way. Such a beautiful, loveable clown. He'd stick his tongue out at anyone passing by, hopping for a tug. Although a gelding, he was retired at age six and I gather he went to a good home

For a trip down memory lane, here are the lifetime past performances for Charlevoix:

Download Charlevoix.PDF


I would be grateful if you could post the PP's for Big Truck's sire, Hook And Ladder.  I'm trying to remember if he ever even tried two turns.  I'm pretty sure he ran in FuPeg's Jerome, but was unplaced, and that was a one-turn mile anyway.

Here are Hook and Ladder's lifetime past performances:

Download hook_and_ladder.PDF

Hook and Ladder never tried two turns.  Big Truck is certainly in the right hands, and he did look great in the post parade prior to the Blue Grass.  If you still believe in him despite the dull performance, you'll get a square price on Derby day, but it looks like he's going to need some earnings help.


Anyone know what the Keeneland/Oaklawn park P4 paid?

The Premier Pick 4 returned $1,083.60 for each dollar.


Dan--aren't you coming to LexVegas this weekend as well?
Maybe I can buy us all a round of beers.  What do ya say?
g or g

Dan: Where will you be stationed at Kland on Sat.?

I'll be taking FormBlog on the road later this week.  Will be at the track Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and am looking forward to meeting everyone (Sergio and Tomcito's connections, g or g and crew, larryk, and anyone else that'll be out and about).   I'll be wandering around as it's my first time at Keeneland, but you guys should be able to find me near the paddock.
Come to think of it, you probably won't have to look very hard.  I'll be the horribly overdressed guy.  Please come over and introduce yourselves.  I'd love to meet any FormBloggers, and would also like to handicap, watch the races, and talk horses with you if possible.


Dan can you please post the pps for The Boz'n because I found an article the day he broke his maiden and believe it or not I swore after start 22 that he would NEVER win...I was almost right ;) I believe there has since been one horse worse...but after I was onto a horse with no heart it was an easy throughout 60 plus races in a row without fail :)

The Boz'n certainly was a lovable loser here in the Northeast.  When he finally did break his maiden, the guys here in the DRF office were in shock

Here are his past performances:

Download thebozn.pdf


"We know he's fast enough (triple digit Beyer Speed Figures as a juvenile)."
Are you sure Dan? Are you really going to put that much stock in the Breeders Cup Juvenile "Monmouth Slop Romp"?

I'll probably put more stock in the 100 Beyer he earned in the Champagne on a fast track.


I'm going to look more closely at Lenny's Derby Earnings System tonight before I comment, and I have tons of other questions to address in tomorrow's blog.  Plus, we'll take a look at a past thoroughbred champion.

All the best,