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'Cappers, tons of stuff
Handicapper(s) of the Week:
Gayego, Z Fortune, Tre Borocho
3:Wide Open Race-Best 6
larry k had a nice weekend. Dan's Pride won at Keeneland, and the seventh race exacta returned $98.20. Plus, he had the COLD trifecta in the Arkansas Derby for ($503.60 for each dollar). Irish Express paid $9.60 in the first at Santa Anita. Santa Teresita returned $6.80 in the third. Giant Gem got up at $6.80 in the fifth. The La Puente cold exacta paid $23.50 for a buck. Great picks!
Dan or anyone
Monba had throat surgery since last why? Keep watching the Cashcall Futurity, he ran by everybody including CJ in the gallop out. Last was too bad to be true.
I think horses like Monba and Medjool who like cushion or Big Truck who seems to be working really well for this make more longshot sense. We will see...
In looking at the Blue Grass, and after reading the comments on here about dirt to poly and cushion to poly not having the best results, what about the only two horses in the race that have actually won on Keeneland's polytrack: Monba and Halo Najib? And then there's Cowboy Cal with the turf to poly angle. All three are at 15-1. AND, their jockeys are Gomez, Velazquez and Prado!
I'm not going to lie I have no clue what is going to happen in this Bluegrass Derby. But I will try to beat the favorite with a little $1 exacta box of five horses.
Race 9: Box 3,5,10,11
I'll join the long shot bandwagon in the Blue Grass, landing on Monba
Since I have defended the quality of the West Coast horses, however, I won't wimp out now. Gayego bobbeaux
I'm going with MONBA here with the thought that he has to win to get in.
I will stick to my California bias and take GAYEGO. He beat Bob Black Jack in his last race and I do not see any other horse in this race that is as good as BBJ. a couple are close, but none better. He will rate off the swift early pace of Victory Pete, My pal Charlie, and Tres Boracchos. take over in the stretch and hold off
Todd Pletcher did a great job getting Monba back to his best form after the colt suffered from various ailments. crazy rob got $18.00 for the Monba pick. Hopefully, Annie and Brett connected with the Pletcher exacta at $139.00. bobbeaux and cayman01 correctly paired up the winners of the two big Derby preps with Monba and Gayego.
Race 7- on paper the pace should be slow so I'll be taking a stab with a couple horses that should be near the front. Moonshine Hall goes for his fourth win in a row off a year and a half break for Mark Casse. I didn't follow fairgrounds this year, so I'm not sure what kind of horses he beat in last 2. Recent work seems to show he's still in good form.
Nice work with Moonshine Hall. He returned $15.20 at Keeneland.
Blue Grass – Monba
SANTA TERESITA is a young filly on her way up. She has a win and place at the distance against quality competition. This is a jump up in class, but she has handled all of her previous promotions and is a winner on turf and the main track.
The usual collection of ham hocks in the Super Five race. MR. ELROY steps down from the MSW ranks and should make short work of these, especially at 5.5F.
Race 2 – Kris Silver
Race 3 – Jungle Wave
SECRET SHUTTLE has two very nice wins in two tries at this distance; next stop will be a stakes for him.
Hold onto your hat, STREET BOSS ran a work of 1:09/4, the best since the track reformulation. I think he want to play boys and girls!
Note that my all time worst call, Outer Space, is running in this race. If he wins I will shoot myself, but with a lifetime Beyer of 38 I think I am safe, maybe. I have no clue as to why RAIL DANCER hasn’t broken his maiden; these should be no challenge to him.
You nailed the upsetter in the Blue Grass. Santa Teresita continued her ascent with a nice win at Santa Anita. Mr. Elroy tried stalking tactics, and they suited him just fine in the finale. Kris Silver and Jungle Wave teamed up for a $27.60 Daily Double, and Steve T gave out three more winners on Monday's card.
SA Race 10 - Tiz West( #9) has been running better each start. I liked him enough early in the year to put him as a wild card in my RTTR.
The beautifully-bred Tiz West came through at Santa Anita in the La Puente. He paid $9.60.
Keeneland Race 8:
#6 Rebellion to win
Rebellion is another one of the good turf horses to succeed on polytrack. He paid $10.20 in the Commonwealth.
In the Arkansas Derby, I like Gayego to win if he can last. and I think he can relax enough to do just that.
As for the Holy Bull, that one is easy enough to pick from with such a small field. I like Hey Byrn keyed with the 1, 5, 6, and 7. I may p/wheel the 2 Hey Byrn over those as well. Now watch this race be anything but predictable.
And Gayego makes his 57-1 future book odds look awfully good with an authoritative score at Oaklawn.
Gayego in the Arkansas Derby
Hey Byrn in the Holy Bull,
Gayego in the Arkansas.
Seattle Smooth in the 3rd at Bay Meadows, although Russell will probably be bet to crap.
On to Louisville for Gayego. The son of Gilded Time showed that he could handle nine furlongs in the Arkansas Derby. The Holy Bull looked like a three horse race on paper so $37.40 for the tri isn't bad at all. Seattle Smooth paid $6.40 at Bay Meadows.
Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) --> 1. Hey Byrn
Race 6, Jenny Wiley Stakes --> 1. Rutherienne
The ultra-consistent Rutherienne returned $14 in the Jenny Wiley.
#2 Tres Borrachos
Pacesetter Tres Borrachos paid $14.80 to show in the Arkansas Derby.
Dan, love the site by the way, question for you or any of your other knowledgeable fans: do you know how I can easily find out what names a given horse was registered under if I have the hip number they sold under at a give auction? (ex. 2007 Keeneland 2-year-old-in-training Auction). I want to be able to analyze racing earning performance versus sale prices the horses went for at many major 2YOIT auctions...but difficult to do with only auction results because I don't know the names the horses eventually raced under.
Try this site if you have the name of the runner's dam. Type in the dam, and the year of birth for the foal, and you should get a name (if it's been accepted yet by the Jockey Club)
Do you have any information on the trainer David A. Cannizzo? Winning percentage in previous years? Does he stay in New York year round?
According to the DRF database, Cannizzo has 35 lifetime starts with 4 wins, 4 seconds, and 2 thirds (11% wins, 28% ITM, $0.79 ROI). He has started horses at Aqueduct, Belmont, Finger Lakes, Delaware, Laurel, Meadowlands, and Monmouth. I believe he is based in New York, but am not positive.
Ready's Image reminds me of one of my fave horses, Charlevoix, in the Mott stable. He was the same way. Such a beautiful, loveable clown. He'd stick his tongue out at anyone passing by, hopping for a tug. Although a gelding, he was retired at age six and I gather he went to a good home
For a trip down memory lane, here are the lifetime past performances for Charlevoix:
I would be grateful if you could post the PP's for Big Truck's sire, Hook And Ladder. I'm trying to remember if he ever even tried two turns. I'm pretty sure he ran in FuPeg's Jerome, but was unplaced, and that was a one-turn mile anyway.
Here are Hook and Ladder's lifetime past performances:
Hook and Ladder never tried two turns. Big Truck is certainly in the right hands, and he did look great in the post parade prior to the Blue Grass. If you still believe in him despite the dull performance, you'll get a square price on Derby day, but it looks like he's going to need some earnings help.
Anyone know what the Keeneland/Oaklawn park P4 paid?
The Premier Pick 4 returned $1,083.60 for each dollar.
Dan--aren't you coming to LexVegas this weekend as well?
Maybe I can buy us all a round of beers. What do ya say?
g or g
Dan: Where will you be stationed at Kland on Sat.?
I'll be taking FormBlog on the road later this week. Will be at the track Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and am looking forward to meeting everyone (Sergio and Tomcito's connections, g or g and crew, larryk, and anyone else that'll be out and about). I'll be wandering around as it's my first time at Keeneland, but you guys should be able to find me near the paddock.
Come to think of it, you probably won't have to look very hard. I'll be the horribly overdressed guy. Please come over and introduce yourselves. I'd love to meet any FormBloggers, and would also like to handicap, watch the races, and talk horses with you if possible.
Dan can you please post the pps for The Boz'n because I found an article the day he broke his maiden and believe it or not I swore after start 22 that he would NEVER win...I was almost right ;) I believe there has since been one horse worse...but after I was onto a horse with no heart it was an easy throughout 60 plus races in a row without fail :)
The Boz'n certainly was a lovable loser here in the Northeast. When he finally did break his maiden, the guys here in the DRF office were in shock
Here are his past performances:
"We know he's fast enough (triple digit Beyer Speed Figures as a juvenile)."
Are you sure Dan? Are you really going to put that much stock in the Breeders Cup Juvenile "Monmouth Slop Romp"?
I'll probably put more stock in the 100 Beyer he earned in the Champagne on a fast track.
I'm going to look more closely at Lenny's Derby Earnings System tonight before I comment, and I have tons of other questions to address in tomorrow's blog. Plus, we'll take a look at a past thoroughbred champion.
All the best,
Danny B, Yep, I'll be at Canterbury watching her race, I'm not sure if I"m going to be there the whole day for live racing or just get out there to watch Harmony Founds race and then take off. But as we get closer to the day, I should know, and we should plan to meet up and introduce ourselves. Be cool to meet a fellow blogger. Didn't know there were any other Minnesota folks on here. Peace
A Muppet..er..BB News Flash: Pardo rides Adriano in the Derby and Elysium Fields out, according to Barkley Tagg for "wear and tear." As for Garret G. riding Pyro, the article seems to be rumor, as the author doesn't substantiate the remark with anything other than "I heard." I hope Gomez stays with Court Vision. TY Dan for posting Charlie's PP's. He was such a great character.
Prado passes up the Wood winner, and the Blue Grass winner to ride the Lanes End winner. Adriano is officially tingling my spidy sense. This horse needs to be analyzed now, he's serious. What are peoples thoughts? I need to go over his races, but I loved what I saw in the Lanes End. A big strong horse with a gorgeous stride that had a gear in the lane that was impressive. Pedigree is perfect for the derby. Dirt is a question. Low speed figures is a question as well, but no one is putting up high numbers this year. As I've stated, I'm inclined to throw out GP results this year compltely, the horses that run back at different tracks are all over the place. I think Adriano is for real, so does Edgar Prado, and I for one will be diving into this colt pretty seriously. Peace
C, I agree on the past the wire angles - for god's sake the race is over, what information lies on the other side of the wire?? The winner could easily be geared down and a closer keeps going, which proves... nothing! The only absolute in horse racing IS the finish line. Have yet to see one tracker's comment that says "yeah well he would have won if the race was five feet longer". My opinion is that it becomes false justification for future support of a horse (i.e. it becomes an emotional decision rather than a reasoned decision). On whether CJ performs on dirt - although I can't argue with the fact that you don't know for sure how they will run until they run, the trend for horses coming from Santa Anita to a dirt track (albeit a small sample) is pretty positive, and I think I may not be completely out in left field when I hypothesize that the runs on Cushion Ride gives them a fitness edge. Guess we will see on May 3rd. Thank you for taking the time to review the DRF Past Performance guide we are creating - over half the comments came from you (I have added another 6 pages to it). The purpose of the guide is solely that users understand every printed word or symbol in the PP's. The next guide will be Handicapping basics.
Mathieu, Billy Patin was suspended for 5 years for the buzzer incident in 1999. I remember watching the race on TV. Afterwards, they showed Valhol pulling up and turning around to go back to the winner's circle. There was discussion by the announers that "it looked like the jockey dropped something" and the scene was shown several times. Later on, a track worker found the buzzer on the track. An Arkansas Circuit Court Judge, who admitted he knew nothing about horse racing, disregarded the recommendation of the Stewards and awarded the winners purse from the AK Derby to the owner - who claimed he knew nothing about the buzzer. Of course, the trainer also denied any knowledge of wrongdoing. 1999 was an interesting year. During the running of the Maryland Breeder's Cup, some guy ran onto the track and took a swing at Artax.
I am in the processing of updating the Kentucky Derby Point System. I added all graded races for two year olds at one mile and up. I'll post the link later today/tonight. Lenny
rfb0318, When I was out in Cal. for the Sunshine Millions in Jan. My dad and I were speaking w/ Ron Anderson(GG's agent) one morning, and he said he the triple crown horse he envied was Pyro--(Now it looks like he's getting his shot). Interesting...
Steve Haskins has come out with his new Derby Dozen list, you can see it over at Bloodhorse.com. Surprisingly, Monba sits as number 1 on Haskins Dozen. Monba! Wait, I take that back. I am not surprised because Pletcher, Inc. should change their name to Valuekiller Underlay, Inc. Haskin has Monba at 1, Big Brown at 2, Colonel John at 3, Smooth Air at 4, Visionaire at 5 and Tale of Ekati at 6. What is so outrageous is that Monba only beat Cowboy Cal by less than 1/2 a length, yet Cal is nowhere to be found on the Derby Dozen because Haskin thinks he is a turf horse (which he is). And prior to his victory at Keeneland, Monba was nowhere to be found on Haskin's Derby Dozen. Interestingly enough, Haskin has War Pass 10th and Pyro 11th. Something about Iron Liege and 5th place being the last horse to win the Derby off of a 5th place or worse finish in final prep. OK...then why Visionaire at number 5 on the Derby Dozen? Did he not get 5th in the BGS? Forget logic. The so-called experts have now officially lost all reason. And I should have my head checked to think I would get any value on Monba when I should have known the mainstream turf media would jump on Pletcher's top Derby contender and bring his odds down like a lead balloon. Heck, I hope both Atoned and Pletcher's allowance winner who are in the Lexington do well enough to get into the Derby. That ought to float the odds of some legitimate contenders (the few that are actually running ) up a few notches. The best value in the Derby is usually anything not racing under a big trainer's name with 2 or 3 other entries from the same megastable. Give me the smaller trainers or the named trainers with only 1 horse entered. The Larry Jones or Carl Natzfger types. Horseracing, especially in the Derby trail sense, is the ultimate what-have-you-done-for-me-lately-sport. And Monba is the ultimate done for me lately horse, even though his prep was far less impressive than Gayego's (92 BSF to 103 BSF). But to Monba's credit, he does have a win over the CD surface. So, its Pletcher, Pletcher, Pletcher for the mainstream claptrap.
John Piesen is reporting that Pyro will have a rider change for the Derby---Garrett Gomez. Has anyone confirmed this? Here's the link: http://www.johnpiesen.com/index.asp?id=12
Download derby_3_starts.PDF Holy skeletal PP's Batman! Dan's dig revealed some interesting tidbits. Such as... Besides Curlin, who I covered last week, there has never been a three start colt as dominant as BB has been leading to the KD. Which makes comparisons, I believe, moot. In 1986, Vernon Castle at 12/1 received more action than Ferdinand as arguably the best entry amongst this group. BB will be hammered to 5/2, in IMO. Interesting that VC was favored vs Manila on the turf and then, like Snow Chief and the rest of the Silver Screen cast, was blown off the track by the filly/gale Melair. Gotta believe her BSF in that effort would've been 120+ . Bobby Frankel started a three race maiden whose first start was a scant six weeks before? The top horse turned out to be Wavering Monarch. He outgamed Aloma’s Ruler in the Haskell, later took a very salty edition of the San Fernando, and came within 2.5 lengths of Bates Motel in the SAH. You think BB lacks experience? His FL Derby win came one week before WM’s FIRST race. This doesn’t eliminate BB’s immaturities but it does illustrate the foundational anomalies between him and the others. Ol’ B C Patin broke out the buzzer to get Valhol home, eh? How was it discovered and did B C get a lifetime ban? More importantly, did they catch it before going official? Is there an Illman blog in the archives that covered cheats? Thyer received strong play despite having an unknown trainer and jock. If Surf Cat had an unknown jockey ten days ago it would’ve been an upgrade.