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Breeders' Cup Lines
Today's Spinster at Keeneland and Clement Hirsch (the grass one) and Ancient Title at Oak Tree just about wrap up the U.S. Grade 1 schedule before the Breeders' Cup. The only other Grade 1's before BC Friday are the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland next Saturday, for 3-year-old turf fillies, and the following Saturday's DeFrancis Dash at Laurel. Those races could yield a starter or two for the F&M Turf or the Sprint, but the major preps for the BC races are just about done.
The questions of whether Zenyatta will run in the Ladies' Classic or the Classic, and whether Sea the Stars will come at all, are the two great uncertainties of the next four weeks and it's difficult to assess either of the Classics in the absence of those key decisions. Nonetheless, one leading practitioner in the uncertainty business, the British bookmaker William Hill, issued updated odds this morning for 9 of the 14 BC races:
From William Hill:
BREEDERS’ CUP 2009
BC Marathon: 4-1 Mastery, Septimus, 7-1 Nite Light, 8-1 Midships, 9-1 Father Time, Geordieland, Mourilyan, 10-1 Muhannak, 12-1 Church Service, 16-1 Stream Cat, 20-1 Big Booster, Dansant, Eldaafer, Palladio 25-1 Alcomo
BC Sprint: 1-1 Zensational, 7-1 Fatal Bullet, 7-1 Kodiak Kowboy, 10-1 Capt Candyman Can, Fleeting Spirit, Pyro, 12-1 Gayego, 16-1 Benny The Bull, El Brujo,25-1 Atta Boy Roy, Global Hunter, 33-1 Not For Silver
BC Filly & Mare Turf: 5-2 Dar Re Mi, 9-2 Shalanaya, 5-1 Forever Together, Magical Fantasy, 6-1 Midday, 10-1 Visit, 11-1 Gozzip Girl, 12-1 Dynaforce, Moneycantbuymelove, Rutherienne, 14-1 Salve Germania, 16-1 Gotta Have Her, Internallyflawless, Heaven Sent, Miss World, Pure Clan, 20-1 Well Monied, 25-1 Acoma, 33-1 Criticism
Breeders’ Cup Turf: 1-1 Conduit, 8-1 Spanish Moon, 12-1 Just As Well, 14-1 Ask, Midships, Take The Points, Telling, 20-1 Batle of Hastings, Black Bear Island, Marsh Side, Presious Passion, 25-1 Marchfield, 33-1 Artiste Royal, Musketier, Spring House
BC Mile: 4-5 Goldikova, 5-1 Delegator, Zacinto, 10-1 Colonel John, 14-1 Cowboy Cal, 16-1 Battle Of Hastings, Court Vision, 20-1 Global Runner, 25-1 Artiste Royal, Courageous Cat, Justenuffhumor, Mr Sidney, 33-1 Awesome Gem, Banrock, Evasive, Meteore, Monterey Jazz, Whatsthescript
BC Classic: 4-5 Sea The Stars, 9-4 Rip Van Winkle, 5-1 Zenyatta, 7-1 Summer Bird,10-1 Mastercraftsman, 14-1 Gio Ponti, Gitano Hernando, Quality Road, Richards Kid,16-1 Rail Trip, 20-1 Bullsbay, Einstein, Mine That Bird, Tiago, 25-1 Macho Again, 33-1 Colonel John
BC Sprint: 1-1 Zensational, 5-1 Fatal Bullet, 7-1 Kodiak Kowboy, Capt Candyman Can, 10-1 Fleeting Spirit, Pyro, 12-1 Gayego, 16-1 Benny The Bull, El Brujo, 25-1 Atta Boy Roy, Global Hunter, 33-1 Not For Silver
BC Turf Sprint: 4-1 California Flag, 5-1 Fleeting Spirit, 6-1 Cannonball, Chamberlain Bridge, 7-1 Heros Reward, 8-1 Silver Timber, 10-1 Delta Storm, Desert Code, Smart Enough, Yankee Injunuity, 11-1 Mr Nightlinger, 12-1 Canadian Ballet, Diamondrella, 20-1 Cardashi, Natural Seven, Noble Court, 33-1 Atticus Kristy, Little Nick
BC Dirt Mile: 7-1 Captain Candyman Can, 10-1 Cowboy Cal, Crown of Thorns, Georgie Boy, Matto Mondo, Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, 12-1 Gayego, Gone Astray, Pyro, 14-1 Informed, 16-1 Mast Track, Monterey Jazz, My Pal Charlie, 25-1 Assessment, Big Drama, Charitable Man, Chirac, El Gato Malo, It’s A Bird, Jonesboro, Kensei, Mr Fantasy, Rebellion, Slew’s Tizzy,Smooth Air,33-1 Coal Play
No lines were provided for the four juvenile races or for the Ladies' Classic, the latter presumably because of Zenyatta's unknown status.
---Only three of Saturday's nine Grade 1 races earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures: The Goodwood (106), Shadwell Turf Mile (102) and First Lady(102). At Belmont, Take the Points got a 95 for the Jamaica while Homeboykris's Champagne and Devil May Care's Frizette both got 89's. Noble's Promise earned a 91 in the Breeders' Futurity, slightly the best of the final round of G1 Juvenile preps. Magical Fantasy's Yellow Ribbon got a 98.
Before Zenyatta's fans start howling about her preliminary BSF of 97, allow me to repeat the following guidelines: A speed figure represents how fast a horse ran from point A to point B relative to the speed of the racing surface on a particular day, is not an overall performance rating, and does not measure how hard a horse was ridden or what kind of a trip it had. But there is simply no arguing that a mile and a sixteenth in 1:42.89 (Lady's Secret) is a significantly slower performance than a mile and an eighth in 1:48.39 (Goodwood).
Zenyatta ran her final sixteenth in 6.23 seconds. Say that she could have sustained that for another sixteenth, tack another 6.23 on to her final time, and you get a projected 9f final time of 1:49.12, which is 0.73 seconds (roughly four lengths) slower than the Goodwood and -- perhaps surprisingly -- right about what Mine That Bird ran while beaten 3 3/4 lengths in the Goodwood.
--Double carryover at Belmont tomorrow -- yes, Monday, when the track is open because it's Columbus Day. Four horses in the finale at Belmont were 5-1 or less but only three of them were covered in the Pick-6 and the fourth, 9-2 Song for Pupcake, was the winner (with the other three of the board.) So there's $140,527 in the kitty for the holiday Pick-6, which starts with the 5th race at 3:07 pm ET and includes the featured $100k Pebbles for 3-year-old turf fillies.
Major question to Mr S Crist ....does anyone know ? Is Frankie Dettori coming to ride the Godolphin/Darley horses in BC or would they keep the local riders on ?
So a few weeks ago I bet a late double somewhere, maybe FairPlex, showing a probable of $124 with two minutes to go. After the first leg won the will pay was only $97.00. I cashed my ticket but received a double 'premium' of about three dollars over a parlay wager. Now, while as a general rule I do think the industry's inability to properly project, or protect, the odds (which is the product I buy at the track) prevents many potential players from committing to the game, I didn't think I was the victim of any shenanigans here; rather that somebody had made a serious late wager and a serious score. Wednesday, I got lit again at Keeneland. (Lit: receiving a light payment amounting to a burn.) In an eleven horse field featuring a 4/5 favorite that ran fourth, I was holding a dollar trifecta comprised of 13-1,10-1,13-1. I'm thinking maybe half of $5,000, maybe more. It ended up paying $2640 for two. (The superfecta completed by the 4/5 payed $9,000 and change.) Again, I don't think I was cheated. I keyed the winner over three horses for a dollar, somebody seeing what I saw could have made the same bet for $25.00. Still, it usually doesn't happen that way. However, when it does, I guess the lesson to be learned is that fairly substantial scores of 25 to 50 thousand dollars are being made, largely unnoticed, at the track with some regularity. The clarion call to the handicapper being to learn how to be the one making those scores. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind somebody telling me that the $2640 trifecta price wasn't light at all. I have this nagging feeling I got gutted by a computer program. Maybe twice recently, which has me worrying that I may be just a good enough handicapper to consistently be doomed to being gutted by computer programs zeroing in on the value I'm identifying.
Jim R, Secretariat retired at 3 also.
Jim R, Secretariat was a great horse, but perhaps you can expand a little on why his 21-16-3-1 record is any better than Sea The Stars 9-8-0-0. To use your own language, six Group 1 wins in six months isn't too shabby. Regards - Bernard
Since a billionaire is retiring a so called great horse such as Sea The Stars who is perfectly sound and wont even run in breeders cup despite being on a surface which favors such horses; I certainly don't want to hear about him anymore.Thankfully I was around with the great ones who ran at 4 or older who ran much more and didn't have owners or trainers making excuses not to run. As for Sea The Stars have his fans watch Secretariats triple crown replays and remember that 3 yo wasn't too shabby on turf either!
A quick recap of the journey to Keeneland - overland by car in two days from N.J. to Winchester VA, then through Moorefield WVA, over the mountains, & then into WVA & KY. Winchester VA: They're spending a fortune ripping up the streets; wait until 2010 to visit, but be sure to do so. The town courthouse Civil War museum is fantastic & riveting. Route 50 from Winchester into WVA is recommended only for those who love to drive above & below beautiful country vistas - & who are willing to pay the stiff price. The going is exacting. We left Rt. 50 for a while, eventually making it to the top of a mountain on a road that had started in Moorefield WVA - & then rode inside of a convoy of Mack trucks - one by one, coming out of a quarry at the top of the mountain - descending into the next valley. Best Named Town on the East Coast: Jane Lew, WVA. Keeneland: A tough start on Friday, Day One - At 5 a.m., torrential storms slammed into & flooded Lexington KY. And the lighter rains in the afternoon during the opening day card's sure didn't make things any easier. Day Two, too, was overcast - Damp, cold & demoralizing. We were wondering why the meet had to be held so late in the year - until someone who knew what he was talking about reminded us that last year's fall meet was a miserable ordeal of autumn heat & humidity. (Lexington, too, is in the middle of various major road rehabs, & the unexpected fiasco detours were never-ending & on both nights, ended up getting us tied up in Gordian transit knots. There went the dinner reservations at the good joints.) Day Three: If you haven't visited the campus of Midway College, in Midway KY, do so. Its beauty is unique. The longshot rampage that had started on Day One continued, but the longshots we liked were pathetic. The money pit was winning the battle. Then, luck struck. A local stable hand graciously gave me a tip while we watching horses getting saddled in the paddock. Fortunately, he knew what he was talking about - but not even he would have been able to predict that Mushka would win because after she had been beaten, the horse that finished first would be DQ'ed (to 2nd). This eliminated having to drive 800 miles today, on the way home, while trying not to twist the steering wheel into knots & polluting the air over the highway with the blue notes. For that, & having discovered the beautiful town of Bedford PA on the return trip, we gave thanks. On to the Breeders' Cup!
Sea the Stars retired...Going to be an exciting Breeders' Cup...
Steven: I usually agree with 99.9% of what you write. I agreed with what you had to say about Sea the Stars as well...until I looked at her past performances. Wow! That's a pretty impressive PP. What struck me most were the size of the fields he took on in many of his races. A lot can happen with larger fields and it never impacted him one bit. While he may not be the best ever, he certainly would put any of our past champion horses to the test...and then some. That run in the Arc was extremely impressive. It is EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTING that the best horses in our sport: Rachel, Zenyatta and Sea the Stars cannot find a way to race together. I can't think of any other sport which has this problem. Maybe this is why we can't get horse racing back into the American psyche.
Re the Breeders Cup betting on Fame and Glory, the reason he is such a generous price is that he runs in a tough Group 1 at Newmarket on Saturday 17 Oct and so is very unlikely to travel to the US. There is also a rumour that Conduit won't be going either. Regards - Bernard
sorry got to put TIZNOW after the good Dr