11/01/2010 4:36PM

Breeders' Cup: Early Favorites and Odds


Mike Battaglia's morning lines for the Breeders' Cup races will come out Tuesday afternoon after final entries are drawn, but based on the oddslines set last week by American handicappers and the prices being offered by English bookmakers today, a lot of people already seem to be sizing up the fields the same way.

There's usually some disagreement over who will be favored in a few of the races, but the early odds published last Tuesday in DRF (Brad Free did the Friday races, Mike Watchmaker the Saturday ones) and the odds being offered today by the William Hill bookmakers in England tab the same favorites in all 14 races. The only discrepancy is that Free predicted Rightly So (F&M Sprint) and Tell a Kelly (Juvenile Fillies) would be favored, while Hill made each the co-favorite, Rightly So with Dubai Majesty and Tell a Kelly with A Z Warrior:


What's remarkable about the alignment of opinion is that the two sets of odds are entirely different animals. The DRF handicappers were making lines, predicting how these horses would be bet by an overwhelmingly American-fueled parimutuel parimutuel pools, while the bookie odds are actual prices being offered to English customers.

Below is a comparison of the DRF early lines with the prices being offered by Hill as of this morning. I've highlighted in yellow the widest differences, and will update the chart tomorrow, adding the morning lines.

[Update 11/2: Morning lines added. For more discussion of them and final entries in post-position order, see upcoming post.]