11/01/2010 4:36PM

Breeders' Cup: Early Favorites and Odds

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Mike Battaglia's morning lines for the Breeders' Cup races will come out Tuesday afternoon after final entries are drawn, but based on the oddslines set last week by American handicappers and the prices being offered by English bookmakers today, a lot of people already seem to be sizing up the fields the same way.

There's usually some disagreement over who will be favored in a few of the races, but the early odds published last Tuesday in DRF (Brad Free did the Friday races, Mike Watchmaker the Saturday ones) and the odds being offered today by the William Hill bookmakers in England tab the same favorites in all 14 races. The only discrepancy is that Free predicted Rightly So (F&M Sprint) and Tell a Kelly (Juvenile Fillies) would be favored, while Hill made each the co-favorite, Rightly So with Dubai Majesty and Tell a Kelly with A Z Warrior:

 

What's remarkable about the alignment of opinion is that the two sets of odds are entirely different animals. The DRF handicappers were making lines, predicting how these horses would be bet by an overwhelmingly American-fueled parimutuel parimutuel pools, while the bookie odds are actual prices being offered to English customers.

Below is a comparison of the DRF early lines with the prices being offered by Hill as of this morning. I've highlighted in yellow the widest differences, and will update the chart tomorrow, adding the morning lines.

[Update 11/2: Morning lines added. For more discussion of them and final entries in post-position order, see upcoming post.]

 

trackbeach More than 1 year ago
i see the JvF Turf as pretty wide open, despite the perceived Euro advantage. nobody seems to like the 8, Wyomia, despite a field high last beyer. is it bc the competition at woodbine isn't as tough? any thoughts? thanks for all you do for the sport steve - i don't always agree with you but i always respect your view and know you have a perspective that few in the game can match.
Jonah More than 1 year ago
We did it!! Go SF Now onto BC picks.
George Kay More than 1 year ago
Unless Pletcher is going to change Quality Road from his previous running style, which is near the lead, I would be surprised he finishes anywhere closer than third (this is Churchill Downs not Gulfstream). Pace should be lively if this field holds up I see him tiring by mid strectch. Zenyatta will need a clean trip to win it but she seems to always find a way. Her biggest threat looks to be "Lookin at Lucky". He should be strong in the stretch. One thing about last years BC Classic the horses she past at the end were not "tiring" horses but horses that were going full out and she still past them..... very lasting impression. I like her with Lookin at Lucky 2nd with Blame a close third.
mike potyrala More than 1 year ago
Steve, once the entries come out will the racing form you get at a newstand have both days of racing or will you have to buy two separate days, cant seem to recall from last year. [Friday's races will be in Friday's paper, Saturday's races will be in Saturday's paper. -SC]
hammer More than 1 year ago
Steve, Congrats on your Giants winning the World Series. Did we see you running onto the field and celebrating with the team? Good mojo going into the BC weekend.
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Steve, If they let Quality Road go off anything near 6-1 or higher, I'll be all over him. This race is a 1 1/4, not 1 1/2. I'll take my chances at those odds, he makes the 10F's. Xmas comes early..Z at 2-1 ? Not w/my money & not w/this field & not on DIRT......
Mike More than 1 year ago
These lists are a great help. I will also take a piece of Quality Road at 8:1. C'ant help but think Zenyatta is to low at 5:2.
RoMo More than 1 year ago
. . .. May sound odd, but over the years I've come to think the "ML", guessing where folks will put their money is a much smaller tool in handicapping than in any other group of carded races.. I'd like to see you "professionals" list the races splitting the fields in a "top-half" vs "bottom-half" or top 5-6 with no odds ..? Separate the "can do's" from the I don't think so's" ..? .. I think it would be interesting. to see what would happen if "no morning-line" was offered.. Wagering was opened on Thursday for Friday .. Friday for Saturday and let the wagering odds speak for themselves without "a posted ML" influence ..?
RR More than 1 year ago
Steve, Will you be on a drf.com video with your analysis of the BC for all races as you did last year? [Yes, taping them Wednesday afternoon with Mike Watchmaker and they should be up by the end of the day. -SC]
John Lyons More than 1 year ago
British bookmakers put Lucky at strong 4-1 second choice at least somebody is giving this horse some props hoping Zen can pull it off -- but if she doesnt I kinda wanna get with Lucky