10/17/2013 10:55PM

Breeders Crown: The "True" Line

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I could write at length about each of the Breeders Crown races being contested at Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs on Saturday (first post is 5 pm), but you can certainly find my analysis on this site.

Rather than analysis, I wanted to provide a useful tool that a handicapper at any level could utilize for profit. In its simplest form you could call it a morning line, but I call it my “True” line. Too many morning line oddsmakers forget that the entire process is designed to reveal what the public is expected to do come post time. Below you will find the odds that I think each horse should offer when the gate swings open. Obviously on the higher end I’m going to be off a bit, because I’m not going to list a horse at 48-1. But at the lower and middle levels, I feel that my line should ring true.

[DRF HARNESS: Watch the Breeders Crown from Mohegan Sun Pocono Downs on October 19 - LIVE on DRF!]

If you are a novice at betting standardbreds and want to give it a try on one of the best nights the sport has to offer, you could simply use my “True” odds and compare them to the tote board as post time nears (Quick tip: at Pocono, 0 minutes to post usually means 5 minutes). If you see a horse going off much higher than my odds, BET! It is as simple as that.

For more experienced players who may make a line of their own, I believe that you can never have too much information. Maybe you missed something. An extra informed opinion is always worthwhile (and hopefully you think my opinion carries at least some weight).

You will also find driver choices listed in bold. If the driver chose a horse over others, I wanted to make that distinction.

There are plenty of opportunities on Breeders Crown night, including a trio of $25,000 pick fours. Here are my tickets for each:

Race 3 - $1 Ticket: 2 / 3,4,6,8 / 2,3,5 / 1,2,4,5,6,8 = $72

Race 7 - $1 Ticket: 5,7 / 1,2,4 / 1,2 / 1,2,7 = $36

Race 11 - $1 Ticket: 4 / 1 / 1,4,7 / 1,2,5,6,8 = $15

Before I leave you to study for the big night, I want to get two Captaintreacherous thoughts off my mind.

1) His name is Captaintreacherous, not Captain Treacherous! It drives me crazy every time I see a member of the press write his name wrong.

2) How many times does he have to beat the same horses before people stop trying to find the “now” horse that will beat him? Could he lose on Saturday? Yes. But how can you bet against him considering the past performances and on-track efforts? At some point you have to stop searching for the something that is not there (I know there are a bunch of you dying to bet against him so you can shower me with “I told you so” comments on Sunday). If you don’t like 2-5, just sit back and enjoy the show.

Good luck on Saturday!

RACE 3 - 2-YEAR-OLD COLT & GELDING TROT

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Auspicious Hanover C.Norris 50-1
2 Father Patrick Y.Gingras 1-5
3 Credit Fashion B.Sears 15-1
4 Another Transcript C.Callahan 25-1
5 Expressive Action R.Pierce 40-1
6 Don Dorado T.Tetrick 20-1
7 Muscle Network J.Jamieson 12-1
8 Nuncio J.Campbell 5-1
9 Southwind Spirit M.Kakaley 25-1

RACE 4 - 2-YEAR-OLD FILLY PACE

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Act Now R.Pierce 12-1
2 Beach Body B.Sears 20-1
3 Uffizi Hanover D.Miller 8-1
4 Allstar Rating Y.Gingras 5-2
5 Southwind Silence M.Kakaley 9-2
6 She's Da Bomb J.Jamieson 6-1
7 Ali Blue T.Tetrick 25-1
8 Precocious Beauty D.McNair 2-1
9 Rockingcam Park A.Miller 50-1

RACE 5 - 2-YEAR-OLD FILLY TROT

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Struck By Lindy D.Miller 10-1
2 Cooler Schooner J.Campbell 4-5
3 Shake It Cerry R.Pierce 5-2
4 Demanding Sam P.MacDonell 30-1
5 Lifetime Pursuit Y.Gingras 5-1
6 Market Rally J.Cummings,Jr. 40-1
7 Scream And Shout T.Tetrick 20-1
8 Goddess B.Sears 15-1
9 Ruby A.Miller 50-1

RACE 6 - OPEN TROT

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Market Share T.Tetrick 3-1
2 Wishing Stone Y.Gingras 12-1
3 My MVP C.Callahan 40-1
4 Guccio J.Takter 20-1
5 Intimidate R.Pierce 8-5
6 Mister Herbie J.Jamieson 5-1
7 Arch Madness T.Smedshammer 10-1
8 Uncle Peter D.Miller 8-1
9 Sevruga A.Miller 12-1

RACE 7 - 3-YEAR-OLD FILLY PACE

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Parlee Beach J.Morrill,Jr. 20-1
2 Mattie Terror Girl J.Campbell 40-1
3 Carols Desire Y.Gingras 12-1
4 Authorize R.Pierce 30-1
5 Shebestingin D.Miller 8-5
6 Aunt Caroline S.Zeron 50-1
7 I Luv The Nitelife T.Tetrick 4-5
8 Somwherovrarainbow M.Teague 20-1
9 Love Canal D.McNair 20-1

RACE 8 - 2-YEAR-OLD COLT & GELDING PACE

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Somestarsomewhere Y.Gingras 7-5
2 Luck Be Withyou R.Pierce 5-2
3 Ari Allstar B.Sears 20-1
4 So Surreal T.Tetrick 5-1
5 Doo Wop Hanover J.Morrill,Jr. 12-1
6 Melmerby Beach P.MacDonell 20-1
7 Some Major Beach S.Zeron 40-1
8 Three Of Clubs D.McNair 12-1
9 Sometimes Said J.Campbell 10-1

RACE 9 - MARE TROT

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Maven Y.Gingras 4-5
2 Check Me Out T.Tetrick 3-1
3 Bax Of Life J.Campbell 6-1
4 Unefoisdansmavie M.Kakaley 25-1
5 D'Orsay C.Callahan 8-1
6 Real Babe B.Sears 50-1
7 Beatgoeson Hanover D.Miller 12-1
8 Cedar Dove R.Pierce 30-1
9 Cowgirl Hall A.Miller 50-1

RACE 10 - MARE PACE

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Rocklamation Y.Gingras 7-2
2 Anndrovette T.Tetrick 7-5
3 Economy Terror R.Pierce 50-1
4 Swinging Beauty B.Miller 30-1
5 Monkey On My Wheel B.Sears 8-1
6 Feeling You T.Buter 10-1
7 Shelliscape D.Miller 8-1
8 Camille M.Kakaley 50-1
9 Drop The Ball C.Callahan 4-1

RACE 11 - 3-YEAR-OLD FILLY TROT

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Coffeecake Hanover M.Kakaley 10-1
2 Ma Chere Hall C.Callahan 10-1
3 Frau Blucher R.Pierce 6-1
4 Bee A Magician B.Sears 2-5
5 Bouncing Bax H.Parker 30-1
6 Handover Belle M.Lachance 30-1
7 Thistle Dhu B.Miller 20-1
8 Time To Kill J.Campbell 50-1
9 Southwind Cocoa T.Tetrick 50-1

RACE 12 - 3-YEAR-OLD COLT & GELDING PACE

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Captaintreacherous T.Tetrick 2-5
2 Beach Memories R.Pierce 30-1
3 Lucan Hanover D.Miller 10-1
4 Apprentice Hanover J.Jamieson 50-1
5 Vegas Vacation B.Sears 4-1
6 Captive Audience A.Miller 30-1
7 Sunfire Blue Chip Y.Gingras 15-1
8 Sunshine Beach J.Campbell 12-1
9 Urbanite Hanover D.McNair 100-1

RACE 13 - 3-YEAR-OLD COLT & GELDING TROT

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Royalty For Life B.Sears 7-5
2 All Laid Out D.Miller 9-2
3 E L Rocket Y.Gingras 15-1
4 Deadliest Catch C.Callahan 10-1
5 Spider Blue Chip R.Pierce 7-2
6 Creatine M.Lachance 10-1
7 Smilin Eli T.Tetrick 8-1
8 Dewycolorintheline R.Schnittker 50-1
9 Aperfectyankee J.Oscarsson 30-1

RACE 14 - OPEN PACE

POST HORSE DRIVER "TRUE" ODDS
1 Clear Vision B.Miller 9-2
2 Foiled Again Y.Gingras 5-2
3 Golden Receiver C.Callahan 12-1
4 Modern Legend J.Campbell 15-1
5 Pet Rock D.Miller 3-1
6 Warrawee Needy J.Jamieson 6-1
7 Michaels Power B.Sears 20-1
8 Bolt The Duer M.MacDonald 8-1
9 Sweet Lou M.Kakaley 30-1

 

 

Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Added up the first race odds and saw your"true" morning line odds had a rake of 23%. Do you think there's anyone alive who can bet WPS pools with a rake that high (then add breakage) and be profitable after high volume? If you do, then you're a sucker, which is sadly the only regular clientele this sport has.
ML NJ More than 1 year ago
Two questions: 1. Why are there no European horses? 2. Who pays for this? With the exception of a race with a minus show pool, none of the (sum of the) WPS pools comes close to $100,000. I realize that there are exotic pools too (which I don't have immediate access to) but the purses for these races are mostly $500,000; and most of the betting pools do have to be returned to the bettors. Where does the purse money come from?
lisa More than 1 year ago
Derick your attempt to do an odds line is commendable except for one small detail. Since there is a 100% chance that some horse will win each race your odds(or the inverse of the probability) must total only 100% and not 125 or 130 percent which takes into account the track take-out. Just another reason it is so difficult to profit at the races, especially at Pocono where the bite on win bets is 19%.
Derick More than 1 year ago
Lisa - A typical morning line does use a range between 117% and 125%. Add up the odds in any race and you will see they fall between that range.
phil bailey More than 1 year ago
I understand Lisa's logic but that goes out the window with parimutuel betting. A great example. Look at race Keenland race 1 October 18. The final odds add up to 300-1 approx.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
phil, you need to check your math. Keeneland 1 on October 18th adds up to about a 17% takeout (before rounding). You have to convert the odds expressed on the tote board or in the chart to probabilities. For example, the winner of that race, Alex's Gold, was 3.7:1 (paid $9.40). His contribution to the final line was 0.21 (that's 1 divided by (3.7 + 1). Doing it your way, a five-horse race with 5 25-to-1 shots would offer appropriate takeout. I wouldn't complain if that were the case, but the tracks might not last.
TerryTurrell More than 1 year ago
Great article Derick. I would guess less than 20% of the betting public know the difference between a Morning Line, Bookmaker's Line, and a True Line. You also point out the need for "extra informed opinions".....the more informed you are the better the odds you will show a profit and treat your wagers as investments. Looking forward to Saturday and the harness Breeders' Crown.
Chris Larkin More than 1 year ago
D., Your first ticket is a 72-bucker, I think. :)
Derick More than 1 year ago
Good catch...made a late addition. Thanks.
matthew kennedy More than 1 year ago
Congrats You Won Three PICK 4's. oh total profit $ 47 . Priceless
Blaine MacMillan More than 1 year ago
Keep up the great work Derick.......
Mike Dicarlo More than 1 year ago
Notice how nobody leaves comments for harness racing columns? It's an inferior sport compared to thoroughbred racing, they all line up horses get boxed in no real racing and extremely low prices, bad racing all along! Breeders Crown at Pocono? Watch the racing there nobody has a shot from post 6 or worse its all early speed and no one can close. Why can't the Meadowlands host this premiere event? At least they "race" there. Bring on the Breeders Cup and forget this "boat racing"!
Derick More than 1 year ago
Sorry you feel that way, Mike. I don't rain on your parade . . . For your information, the Meadowlands will be hosting the Breeders Crown in 2014.
Matt Kennedy More than 1 year ago
Thoroughbreds RAIN- Standardbreds DRIZZLE.
Electrocutionst More than 1 year ago
I love both. No need to demean one just because you don't like it.
David Dunn More than 1 year ago
They are configured differently, that's the entire point. Being on the outside at smaller tracks forces your hand and you have to send. The Meadowlands actually has a similar problem with the one hole. You actually have the same chance to win from the (7) hole at the Pocanos as you do from the (1) and (2) holes at the Meadowlands, 8.5 to 8.8 and 8.7 respectively. That long stretch at the big M creates some awesome finishes though, four and five wide sometimes.