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Blues Street in New Orleans, Top 3yo seasons, Etc.
Although Eskendereya, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, and Connemara received all the headlines this past weekend, I was most impressed with a Todd Pletcher-trained turf runner at the Fair Grounds on Saturday.
Blues Street will never be mistaken for Sea-Bird, but it looks like this 6-year-old gelding is coming to hand. Entered for a $75,000 tag last fall at Belmont, Blues Street finished fourth that afternoon, but hasn't missed a beat since, winning three in a row since blinkers were removed. The Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap on Saturday was Blues Street's latest prize as he sat off a moderate pace, made a solid move on the turn, and chewed up the frontrunners in the final quarter-mile. The Beyer Speed Figures for his last five races read like this: 85, 91, 93, 96, 104
"I really like the way it developed," said winning rider, Javier Castellano, who also rode Discreetly Mine to a Risen Star win for Pletcher that afternoon at the Fair Grounds. "I was very satisfied. I'd never got on the horse before."
Blues Street flew back to South Florida Monday morning to prepare for his next engagement.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's racing:
Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest Beyer earner:
What is all the mystery over Bob Black Jack's injury?
It was interesting that Mr. Kasparoff was so hush-hush over things earlier in the week, but Jay Hovdey got the story in Saturday's DRF:
Which leads us to:
Training Job of the Week:
James Kasparoff for not only getting Bob Black Jack back to the races safe and sound, but having him ready to rumble in Saturday's San Carlos Handicap at a demanding seven furlongs over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride. Bob Black Jack showed no rust in assuming his usual spot at the front of the pack en route to a 101 Beyer score in 1:21.05.
Post-race Analysis of the Week goes to TVG's FRANK LYONS.
After a game Naughty New Yorker beat back an prolonged inside challenge during the stretch run of Saturday's Tinchen's Prince Stakes at Aqueduct, the veteran looked on his way to victory only to be run down in the shadow of the wire from the outside by Almighty Silver.
Lyons immediately noted the full-cup blinker Naughty New Yorker wears over his right eye and theorized that he never saw Almighty Silver coming.
I think he was right. That's the sort of subtle trip analysis that handicappers want to hear instead of the usual "Wow, what a race!"
Dan, Tinky, Laura, Calvin, C, All You Pedigree Hounds
I have been doing a piece on evaluating sires for their ability to get runners at 10F or greater. The patterns seemed pretty predictable and most of their runners could be categorized and then I was stopped dead in my tracks by one sire in particular, Street Cry. Here is a sire who can get anything, he has G-1 sprinters like Street Boss and Street Hero, G-1 routers on dirt and synthetic (Street Sense and Zenyatta), and G-1 turf runners like Shocking (winner of the G-1 Melbourne Cup at 2M) and Whobegotyou. His progeny have won from 2F to 16F on every surface there is. The only others I can think of in this category are Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector.
As a race horse Street Cry was decent but certainly not great, he never missed the board, but only won twice in eight starts. He has a breeding I look for - a Native/Northern Dancer over a non-ND European distance type (like Unusual Heat, Nureyev over the Danish mare Rossard).
What makes him able to get all types? Is it magic or is there some identifiable pattern? It looks to me like he could be another Mr. P, still a little early, but what a versatile sire.
Speaking of mudders, I miss the old symbols for superior mudders. Why did DRF stop using them? Because of the Tomlinsons?
I hate to say it, but I think it's magic. While I would love to point to a single distinguishing characteristic for Street Cry's success, I don't think that's possible, and that's why studying bloodlines is a fascinating, yet sometimes frustrating, exercise.
The European influences (Machiavellian, Helen Street) in Street Cry's pedigree should provide stamina while Machiavellian's stallion, Mr. Prospector, provides speed. Now, can we predict similar results from another Machiavellian stallion like Almutawakel (also a Dubai World Cup winner like Street Cry)? Of course not.
Then, there's race record to consider. While Street Cry is best known for his Horse of the Year season (Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster) at four around two turns, he did win his maiden by seven lengths going 6 1/2 furlongs, and he did earn a 103 Beyer when headed in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity at two. So, he did have ample speed to go with his stamina.
Pedigree, race record, quality of the mare, and conformation. Toss them in a cauldron, mix 'em up, and see what comes out. It obviously helps to have all four, but how many times have we seen a can't-miss stallion prospect, well, miss?
Don't know for sure about the mud marks, but I'm guessing that after we put in the lifetime "Wet" record in the past performances, along with the Tomlinsons, that the asterisks weren't necessary.
Dan, can you please post the PPs of The Vid?
Here they are:
Now here's a question that should be up for some good debate. In 1969 Arts and Letters was named 3 year old champ and horse of the year over kentucky derby and preakness winner Majestic Prince. In 69 Art's and Letters put together what I consider the finest 3 year old season of any horse. He won the Everglades Stakes, was then 2nd to the years previous 2 year old champ in the Flamingo and Florida Derby. In his derby prep he won the Bluegrass by about 16 lengths.He then ran 2nd in both the derby and preakness to the undefeated Majestic Prince losing both races by less than a half length.After his preakness loss he began a devastating run that has yet to be matched by any 3 year old since. He won the Met Mile against older horses. Days later he returned in the Belmont and became the only horse ever to defeat Majestic Prince. Following a short rest he was brought back in the Jim Dandy which he won easily by over 10 lengths. He then followed that with a track record setting win in the Travers. Clearly the best among his generation he was sent again to face the top older horses in the country.He then demolished older horses in the Woodward. Then won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont and at 2 miles by over 12 lengths. Find me a better season by a 3 year old. Don't think there is one but let's see what you guys drum up. Dan if you catch this one would like to hear your opinion.
How about pp's for Conquistador Cielo.
How about the PP's for Pretty Discreet,Private Account and Mineshaft.Why would people be worried about him getting a route of ground? You gave some pretty solid pointers regarding his last trip. Hoping some people pulled the trigger and picked up a few bucks.
There's no question that Arts and Letters had a monster year in 1969, winning eight stakes (Everglades, Blue Grass, Met Mile, Belmont, Jim Dandy, Travers, Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup) races by a combined margin of 58 1/2 lengths. It is interesting to note that he only faced three rivals in the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Woodward, only took on four competitors in the Travers, and five in the Belmont and Blue Grass.
Twenty years later, Easy Goer won eight stakes races (Swale, Gotham, Wood Memorial, Belmont, Whitney, Travers, Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup) at three by a combined 46 1/4 lengths. Several of those fields were short as well, but Easy Goer was the second-best three-year-old of 1989 when considering Sunday Silence's season.
Both horses ran second in the Derby and Preakness before winning the Belmont and both beat older rivals on three separate occasions. I'm not saying either had a better year, but they're certainly comparable.
Other top three-year-old seasons of note:
Affirmed - eight stakes wins, Triple Crown
Assault - eight stakes wins, Triple Crown, beat elders twice
Buckpasser - 11 stakes wins, beat elders three times
Citation - 16 stakes wins, Triple Crown, beat elders six times, one walk-over
Damascus - 11 stakes wins, beat elders three times
Dr. Fager - eight stakes wins, beat elders twice
Gallant Fox - nine stakes wins, Triple Crown, beat elders twice
Holy Bull - eight stakes wins, beat elders twice
Man o'War - 11 stakes wins, beat elders twice
Nashua - nine stakes wins, beat elders once
Native Dancer - nine stakes wins
Secretariat - nine stakes wins, Triple Crown, beat elders three times
Sir Barton - eight stakes wins, Triple Crown, beat elders twice
Spectacular Bid - nine stakes wins, beat elders twice
Whirlaway - 10 stakes wins, Triple Crown
Here's Conquistador Cielo:
Here's the Discreetly Mine family tree:
A little info on the dam of the #6. Flyindownbaylaurel may have won the WORST race even run on the grass in Southern California history in terms of what was in the field. Her win was so shocking to to some people that the CHRB actually looked into it because they thought Mullins was cheating. (at this point in time, this is when he had just arrived in SoCal, so please stop scoffing) It was a joke because the field was SO bad, and she had a little grass in her pedigree, so she WAS the most equipped to win.
Dan, i was wondering if we could see the chart for the maiden win for FLYINDOWNBAYLAUREL please? Thank you in advance.
Here it is:
Aside: In looking at the PPs, I see a race listed as [F][R]Md 40000 (see the 4's last). But when I look up the chart, the conditions look identical to a simple state-bred race. Am I missing something or is this a typo?
I believe the Restricted tag (instead of state-bred) is appropriate in this case as the race in question was for California-bred OR California-Sired runners. Thus, one would not have to be a Cal-bred to run.
In the meantime, I have a question. Do you know anything about the trainer change on Giant Oak, from Chris Bloch to Neil Pessin? Would appreciate anything you might know.
I don't think it's a traditional trainer change. Many of Block's horses run in Pessin's name at the Fair Grounds over the winter while Block remains in Illinois.
I find only looking for longshots, is time consuming and tedious as I am choosing from 2 or 3 tracks. Also, it goes against my handicapping instincts.
I have been thinking about a few things.
What is the effect, good and bad, on my handicapping, of continually looking for longshots and ignoring the contenders? In the long run, is it making me a poorer handicapper?
While I can't blame you for fishing for prices, it doesn't seem like a good idea to ignore logical horses while doing so. If you're interested in finding value, you may want to begin by identifying the favorite and asking yourself if you feel he is vulnerable. If that is the case, then go looking for logical/semi-logical horses that can beat the iffy chalk.
has there been any word on williams kitten's next race? i thought he was going to be entered in the risen star because they didnt want to stay at gulfstream...any help???
Over at the Louisville Courier-Journal, Jennie Rees is reporting that William's Kitten is off the Derby trail with an ankle injury.
I wonder how many Derby prospects this year share that RAN-Mr. Prospector over Northern Dancer bloodline. Is there a way to get this info without individually breaking down each pedigree?
From Saturday's Derby Watch section:
Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike over Belong to Me)
Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil over Tabasco Cat)
Dublin (Afleet Alex over Storm Bird)
Sidney's Candy (Candy Ride over Storm Cat)
Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor over Moscow Ballet)
Can you explain, as I'm sure you've done before, how Beyer Speed Figuers are calculated, exactly?
Dan, can you post the PP's for Discreet Cat? Thanks
From Andy Beyer's The Winning Horseplayer:
"The premise of speed handicapping is simple: The ability of horses is best measured by how fast they run. The techniques of speed handicapping exist to measure how fast they actually do run. There would be no difficulties if all races were contested at the same distance on a uniform artificial surface. Then a horse who ran six furlongs in 1:10 would obviously be two fifths of a second (or approximately two lengths) faster than a rival who ran in 1:10 2/5. But races are, of course, run at many different distances, and a handicapper must know how to compare a horse who ran six furlongs in 1:10 with one who raced seven furlongs in 1:23. This is done by means of a chart that translates every time at every distance into a number, called a speed rating, for purposes of easy comparison. Six furlongs in 1:10 might have a rating of 106 and seven furlongs in 1:23 a rating of 103, thus suggesting that the horse who ran six furlongs in 1:10 is superior. (These numbers are arbitrary; another speed chart based on the same method might have assigened ratings of 906 and 903 respectively).
Besides comparing times at different distances, the other great difficulty in speed handicapping is comparing times run on different days. Because of the weather or the way the racing surface is maintained, the inherent speed of a track can change from day to day. A horse who runs six furlongs in 1:10 may run in 1:11 the next. A horse who ran in 1:10 may actually be slower than a rival who ran in 1:10 2/5 over a deeper track.
A speed handicapper attempts to measure the inherent speed of a track analytically and precisely. He may conclude that a track one day is three fifths of a second slower than normal. Because he is working with figures, not actual times, he might express this by saying the track is seven points slower than normal. This is the daily track variant, an adjustment that is made to the time of every horse who ran that day to take into account the speed of the racing surface. When the daily track variant is added to a horse's speed rating, the result is his speed figure."
Here are Discreet Cat's lifetime past performances:
I wish DRF would put out PP's for Harness racing!! Any chance of that happening in the next few years?? I recall you did pick the winner of the grass race last summer at The Big M!! Thank you for helping me get that exacta of that race!!!
Our sister publication, Sports Eye (newspaper version only), has past performances for harness racing, but it doesn't look like we'll be able to publish harness pp's on the web as TrackMaster is the company with the harness contract.
Any word on the 4 y/o filly Red Carpet Diva (Mr Greeley x Wooing)?
She hasn't dropped any foals yet so one could assume that she is still in training. I'd keep her on the list for a few more months until this breeding season is complete. Note that she was consigned as a broodmare prospect at the auction and may be bred soon.
Can you post the lifetime PP's of Golden Hare?
Here they are:
I play Sam Houston every once in a while online and saw an impressive 3yo. win a stake on Saturday named Coyote Legend. Can you tell me more about the horse? Thanks
Coyote Legend is a Texas-bred gelding that has won three stakes races in a row on the Mid-South circuit. On Saturday, he dominated a restricted stakes race going one mile at Sam Houston with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure.
He is a full brother to Gold Coyote, a multiple stakes-winning sprinter for these connections. While he has certainly shown improvement in his last three starts, one has to wonder how far Coyote Legend wants to go. With this pedigree, the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby may be a bit long for him.
Note that the winless dam cost $600,000 as a yearling and the second dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner going long with over 900K in earnings.
Here are his past performances:
Dan, could you post the pps of some sprint stars- Chinook Pass ,Groovy, Decathlon, Hallowed Dreams, What a Summer, and Chou Croute.
Here they are:
Congrats to Meadowlake for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling. We're awaiting his selection for this week's race.
Handigambling 174 My Analysis 1.) Grand Cash - Been away 4 months, and running style won't benefit from seemingly paceless race, Horses, esp. closers of such layoffs tend to run slower through the opening fractions, but will close strongly as their fresh. 2.) Nownownow - Made his fortune as a one run closer, and most of that winning the inagural BC Juv Turf. Has the stakes lines and company lines to make him the chalk, but running style is also way off the pace. 3.) Wesley - Yet another deep closer, yet his running lines in similar classes have produced a win over 2 next out winners nearly 2 years back at the spa, and a close up fin in the Ft. Lauderdale. Throws clunkers and will be a short price. 4.) Marquet Cat - Appears to be the lone speed, but seems vastly overmatched in class. 5.) Hunting - SCR 6.) Danak - Will make his 2nd start in the same year for the first time in 3 years. Stalked a fast pace in last, Has back class, and is likely to get 1st run at #4 7.) Wheels Up At Noon - Only 4 starts in 2 years, failed to hit the board in any, Good trip in last and squandered it, simply not sharp, barn is cold also. 8.) Staying On (IRE) - SCR Guessing on a vast improvement 2nd off layoff for #6, and hoping to get 1st run at the leader my plays are $50 Exa 6-1 $40 Exa 6-3 $10 Exa 6-4 :) Good Luck to All
TurnBacktheAlarm Wow...Ok ...That's it. I REALLY enjoyed your last few posts. I learned alot, so enough said. Talk to you later. SR Vegas
wilson, I am not making any excuses for the Southwest result. I was not surprised to see Conveyance win it, nor do I have a very strong opinion about those he beat at this stage. He did not win by luck; he won because he was best on Saturday, period. However, I would be absolutely floored if Conveyance wins the Derby, judging from what I've seen so far and glancing over his bloodlines. Holy Bull is not a strong stamina influence by any means, nor is Indian Charlie. And horses that run like Conveyance almost always find 1 1/4 on dirt (at least) a bit too far. If I was forced to bet on him or against him right now, I'd bet against with little reservation. Steve, Tinky, I don't care about East coast/West coast one bit. It's silly to me. I always thought Sunday Silence was better than Easy Goer. And that's coming from a Brooklynite. And, like Tinky, I never blamed Pat Day. Over the years, I've heard Tinky's explanation before and it does make sense, especially when you watch the replays again.
Tinky, You know what I meant, ya can't put all the caveats in every argument. There are two horses I hold exceptional esteem for - Sunday Silence and Tiznow; both for their heart. They may not have been the physical specimens like their opponents, but you got everything they had. I really believe that Sunday Silence was Whittingham's finest training job - the little black horse was as ready as he could be when the gate opened.
How about a new wager to help support the track and purses. 1.Separate pool 2.One race per card 3.Betters pick one of two colors red or black *and a horses number 4. Limit to the wager 5. After the race 36 balls are put in a air tube 16 red, 16 black, and one green. 6. Drawing is shown on infield TV 7. Winner is paid on the number and the color that comes up at 1-1. 8. If the green ball comes up the track takes all. 9. All proceeds go to track up and purses. 10. Nothing is paid on a winning ticket from the regular paramutual pool.
Calvin, Thanks much for the link, I believe we haven't seen the bottom to Eskendereya yet, but there's more racing to observe....should be interesting. I have some other observations, about a few things, for those others who care? give a listen. The state of racing; Funny how many observations I've heard before. The demise of racing started with the advent of OTB....empty stands, horses running for the viceo cameras only.....etc. There is one inescapable fact as we "progress" as a society, as we get further and further from the natural world, depending more and more on our technological wonders, the less we will feel a need for the "natural" sport of horseracing.....period. If the demise of harness racing doesn't help play out that scenario, you're missing something. also it's economics.....too much of a good thing, States see revenue from racing, rarely givng any thought to the health of the sport....trust me, if they could get their tax money elsewhere they would. Less vested interest, you could say. Unfortunately in an unhealthy economy the weak do not survive...that's a history lesson. Someplaces have to fail for the health of the whole. It broke my heart when Harve de Grace closed as well as Jamaica racetrack, but that's the way it is. There are too many tracks vying for the racing dollar, at least what's healthy for the sport as a whole. Statesalso need to work together, especially in the NY tri state area. Running meetings that don't compete as much with each other. I also believe we should go back to the "old way" Closing the NY tracks for the winter and letting the stables winter in Florida, or if they can't rest their horses like before. Will some stables close because of the situation? probably, but that's how the economy works.....better to have a good number of strong stables than a bunch of stables barely making it.....once again History lesson. Gimmicks and such do not work in the long run, never have....that would be the "P.T. Barnum" solution, how many folks go to the circus anymore to see the bearded lady?? AS to the Triple crown trail; I agree with Steve T and C, Conveyance will hit the 1/8th pole at CD, given if he makes it, and stops like he was shot Lookin at Lucky should run in the Rebel, better to find out now than later. I will give Buddy's Saint another chance, I will not give one to his jock....better to replace him now. Eskebdereya....what can I say, they all have some catching up to do. Jackson Bend, I agree with some other assessments....he was the best last year, but even a simple man like myself could see he was beating up on no one special. This is the type of horse Zito will excel with.....he'll probably win the Belmont, ruin Eskenereya's chance at a triple crown, then win the Travers aka Birdstone. The horses who came out of the Southwest? forget them for now. Ron The Greek.....don't discount this horse just yet, he's shown the ability to close to "fractions" he's the type who will surprise you in the Derby. and lastly, Always remember.....look for a really good performance to show a horses ability....even if his last or even last two before the derby aren't as good, Knowing what a horse is capable of on his best day is important...it's how I caught the Barbaro/ Bluegrass Cat exacta, it's how I caught Funny Cide, Monarchos and Real Quiet also. Mike A
I think Sunday Silence is one of the most underappreciated "great" horses since the las triple crown. I believe that after is win in the Classic, SS had surgrery for a bone chip in his ankle; this horse had great heart and he was the best 3 year-old of his generation. He has also proven to be an outstanding sire and he deserves much more respect than he is given. Everyone wants to talk about EG's losses; he was beaten by a better horse.
TBTA, There is a major debate in B-more today. 1/2 the weathermen say 1-3 inches of snow (we miss most of the storm). The other 1/2 say 1-2 feet of snow. And we think horseplayers have diverse opinions?? PGM, Absolutely no apology is necessary!! We have many excellent (and even more lousy) ideas here, so it is hard to keep it all straight...especially the names of the players! What is important is the discussion and that includes both sides of the argument - we need just as many contrarians. The problem I often see here (and sometimes I am just as bad as others - so "Do as I say, not as I do") is that we become so wedded to our opinion that we don't listen to others...or berate others for their contrary opinion. The discussion should always remain business, not personal. And that also goes for comments (especially negative) about one's handicapping abilities...especially our Fearless Leader of Formblogia...who happens BTW, if you bother to check his ROI on a aggregate basis, to be a really good handicapper! And that's a business opinion - even though personally, he's an OK guy also!! Tinky, You stole my thunder in the SS vs EG discussion.... Mickey, I'll be glad to share the Caracortado award, but please...I never win anything around here! I can't even win the "WORST HandiGambling Wager Award". Throw me a bone! Uncle Steve, Love the video! Off Topic, but this is one of my new favorite videos - I got it from a WSJ article yesterday. The filmmakers have replaced the original subtitles of the movie with their own version. Here's the WSJ article (you may need a WSJ subscription): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703983004575073993192954502.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_lifeStyle Here's the video - it's even funnier after you read the article: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkDxF2kn1I
Good Morning All... Just an idea about the big race between RA and Zenyatta. With the big money being tossed around and with two owners worth millions, here is an idea that I have. The race is on a Friday. You want to draw the young crowd, the middle aged crowd, and the old timers. T.V. is a must so that the country will see the race. ESPN. I would offer the following: For everyone that shows up that is 21 years of age and older, I would give them a $50 dollar BETTING VOUCHER!!!! It needs to be used on Friday only, and you must use the entire ticket up. This would draw the biggest crowd that Oaklawn has ever seen!!! Target all over the College crowd. Market to all of the stay at home Mom's. Place a wager on one of the GREATEST RACES OF OUR GENERATION!!!! Whatever it takes!!! It is only money to the Owners of the track, and they will make it back!! WHAT DO YOU THINK???? 15,000 fans x $50 = $750,000. Just a thought. Whackymacky Out!!!
Steve T., The first Saturday in May is a ways off and for the most part I agree with you about Conveyance. But I would not completely discount him. The tell of the tale will come when he runs 9-furlongs. If he handles that well and makes it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate, I would consider him as a potential long shot and a play in the exotics. A lot can happen between now and the time for the Derby and I may change my mind by then. Only time will tell.