12/23/2015 8:39PM

Big figs, easy trips

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I'd like to wish everyone a wonderful, safe and prosperous holiday season.

Last week, there were two horses that cracked the triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure plateau.

Both X Y JET (Gulfstream) and FINANCIAL MODELING (Aqueduct) are lightly-raced horses in the hands of high-percentage trainers. Both have a good amount of upside potential and both were visually impressive winning their respective stakes engagements last weekend.

I want nothing to do with either one of them next time out.

Let's start with Financial Modeling. Trained by Chad Brown, the 4-year-old son of Street Sense ran away and hid from his five opponents in last Saturday's $100,000 Queens County Stakes at nine furlongs over the Aqueduct inner track.

There's no denying, however, that Financial Modeling received a superb trip and ride. Breaking from the outside post, Financial Modeling cleared to the lead and the inside without so much as a skirmish, set moderate fractions of 24.15 and 48.12 while 2 to 3 lengths clear of his nearest competition, and rambled on home to win by 4 1/4 lengths in 1:49.60. He received a 104 Beyer, but it's hard to imagine a situation where Financial Modeling will receive a similar candy trip against better horses.


It's a situation where Financial Modeling may very well be a true 104 Beyer runner. Until he proves it against some adversity, not to mention some better horses, however, I'd take the opinion that he earned that gaudy figure thanks to circumstances instead of pure ability.

The same goes for X Y Jet, although to a lesser extent. The sophomore sprinter, trained by Jorge Navarro, never gave his six rivals a chance in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes going three-quarters of a mile at Gulfstream. He put pace rival SINGANOTHERSONG in his place before the opening quarter was clocked in 21.92, moved to a clear advantage along the inside and kept right on going. He never faced an anxious moment and won by 9 1/4 lengths in 1:08.56 as the only 3-year-old in the field.
 


While this was a decent field of sprinters, the argument could be made that the vanquished are many, many notches below the best in the division. Plus, X Y Jet had the run of the race. He put everyone else on the chase, had them off the bridle after a half-mile and skipped home against exhausted stock. He's a good sprinter, but many handicappers are going to bet him next time off this loose-on-the-lead score. I'm very curious to see how X Y Jet will fare when faced with another quality speed horse. Will he still be able to run a race of this magnitude? At a short price, I'd be inclined to bet against it.

***

Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 12/15/15 - 12/21/15:

1. X Y JET - 107 - Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - 19Dec15-4GP
2. FINANCIAL MODELING - 104 - Queens County Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Inner Dirt) - 19Dec15-8AQU
3. BOND VIGILANTE - 99 - OC 100k/C - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 20Dec15-8AQU
4. EAGLE - 97 - Tenacious Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 19Dec15-10FG
4. SOLEMN TRIBUTE - 97 - Tropical Park Derby - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 19Dec15-9GP
6. PUMPKIN RUMBLE - 95 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 17Dec15-8FG
6. RICHIES SWEETHEART - 95 - Lightning City Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 19Dec15-9TAM
8. TAPITATION - 94 - Alw 35000N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 16Dec15-9GP
8. TRAFFIC LIGHT - 94 - Alw 79700NC - 1 Mile - 21Dec15-5PRX
10. MAJESTIC AFFAIR - 93 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - 16Dec15-3AQU
10. TAMMY THE TORPEDO - 93 - Tropical Park Oaks - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 19Dec15-11GP
12. IBAKA - 92 - Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes - About 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 19Dec15-8FG
12. WITH RHYTHM - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 17Dec15-9GP
12. WILD TARGET - 92 - Clm c-16000 - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 20Dec15-2AQU
15. BETWEEN THE LINES - 91 - Alw 67000N1X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 19Dec15-3AQU
15. KITTEN'S DUMPLINGS - 91 - Blushing K D Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 19Dec15-6FG
17. EL BOTAS - 90 - OC c-25k/N1X - 6 Furlongs - 19Dec15-7GP
17. HERE SIR - 90 - Alw 50000s - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 19Dec15-1AQU
19. M C SQUARED - 89 - OC25k/SAL16k - 1 Mile (Turf) - 18Dec15-4GP
19. PINNACLE PEAK - 89 - OC 50k/N1X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 18Dec15-4FG
19. STILL KRZ - 89 - Clm 30000(30-25)B - 6 Furlongs - 20Dec15-7GP
22. ANNOY - 88 - Alw 33290N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 19Dec15-7DED
22. DANNHAUSER - 88 - OC 32k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 20Dec15-6TAM
22. DEEP BOTTOM - 88 - B. Connected Stakes - 7 1/2 Furlongs - 19Dec15-8DED
22. MOR SPIRIT - 88 - Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 19Dec15-8LRC
22. MY SECRET AFFAIR - 88 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs - 20Dec15-7LRC
22. RIVIERE DU LOUP - 88 - Clm 35000 - 1 Mile (Turf) - 16Dec15-1GP
22. ROOSTER BULLET - 88 - OC20k/SAL10k - 5 Furlongs - 19Dec15-6DED
22. SIR BOND - 88 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 18Dec15-8LRL
22. TRUE FLAT - 88 - OC 20k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 21Dec15-4FG

*X Y JET's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*WILD TARGET was claimed for $16,000 by trainer David Cannizzo from Charlton Baker.

*EL BOTAS was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Joe Sharp from Aubrey Maragh.

***

Dan
Since 12/12 there have been Stakes races at various tracks that are listed in the DRF Entries as G Stakes. Quoting the American Graded Stakes Committee "The purpose of the American Graded Stakes Committee is to provide owners and breeders of Thoroughbred horses a reliable guide to the relative quality of Thoroughbred bloodstock by identifying those U.S. races whose recent renewals have consistently attracted the highest quality competition." The 'G Stakes' listing is confusing on what exactly is a 'G Stakes'. I have been labeling the races that I follow with the "Committee" label of GR I, GR II and GR II races to show the races of the highest quality. This rating "G Stakes" is confusing and I have noticed that Equibase still list these races as just plain old Stakes races. The purses have been as low as $60K and as high at $100K. What's the deal on labeling these races as 'G Stakes.'
TurfRuler

I'm guessing it's a glitch in the system. The "G" stakes in the entries appears to indicate that the race isn't graded. If the race had a grade, it would be listed by the grade ranking (G1, G2, G3). It's confusing and I'll try to have it sorted out.

***

Video stakes analyses for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

I'll be on with Mike Beer for live coverage of racing at Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Santa Anita beginning at 3pm ET at live.drf.com.


***

Here's a message from Laura regarding our 2016 FormBlog Convention at Gulfstream Park:


Make plans to attend the 2016 FORMBLOGERS CONVENTION! February 19 - 21 at Gulfstream Park. Courtesy of our generous benefactor, Mike Nyman, we once again have a private suite - temperamental wagering machine included.
 
Room discounts at the Hampton Inn across the street from the track are available. With the discount, the rooms run about $200/night including taxes and free breakfast buffet. (The Romance Package is extra and hotel management is very strict about that).
 
We always have a fun time - even when the track gets washed away! Besides the pleasure of each other's company - and that of our fearless leader, Dan Who, there will be Breeders' Cup swag, and more! Previous years, courtesy of SR Vegas, we included Derby Futures Tickets given in raffles throughout the weekend (everyone winds up with one!), and other fun stuff.
 
I'll have more info available in the next few weeks. I offer FREE! transportation to/from the Ft. Lauderdale airport.
 
If you have any questions, please contact me at: lross@imtbreds.com


***

Congrats to Michel de Botton for winning last week's HandiGambling contest.

We'll go with Saturday's Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita for this week's exercise.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
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A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

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XY JET.pdf653 KB
HGDAYTONA.pdf207 KB