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Beyers, questions, pp's, etc.
Saw a pretty nice juvenile filly run at Keeneland on Sunday. Donna Getyourgun, a second-time starter trained by Ian Wilkes and ridden by Julien Leparoux, was an impressive maiden winner of the seventh race. She earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure, but received quite an education, and only was asked for run during the final eighth of a mile. Leparoux rode the Stormy Atlantic half-sister to Clearly a Queen (multiple Grade 3 winner going long on turf) with supreme confidence, sticking her in behind horses until the final furlong before calling on her to kick. And kick she did, finishing her last eighth in 11.58. This was her second lifetime start (she finished second in her debut at Arlington), and first with Lasix, and she may be one to watch when the second round of stakes races for juvenile fillies begins at Churchill Downs.
As for wagering, as I was answering you I came up with an interesting angle (DAN-CHIP IN ON THIS) If you see a horse second off a layoff who's usual style is to come from off the pace but who showed speed first off layoff, providing there's some "back class" that may be a bettable horse at a nice price?
It's an interesting angle if you believe that the returning back-classer is using the race as a "workout" instead of a true run. I'd advise handicappers to watch the rider in this case. See if the jockey aggressively urges the mount to grab the early lead in the hope of giving the horse a good quarter-mile to three-eighth's test. As the horse tires from the early effort, watch to see if the jockey takes it easy during the final three-eighths or so. If the jockey isn't keeping after the mount, one could assume that the race was merely used as a stepping-stone for something down the road. I'd consider this angle a bit more powerful if the next race coincides with a stretchout in distance.
Although I must admit I do not know how many other two year olds have received a 100 BSF or higher this year.
Here's the list for 2-year-olds with 100 or greater Beyers in 2009:
*Hot Dixie Chick - July 29 - Saratoga - 103
*Uh Oh Bango - September 18 - Prairie Meadows - 102
*Hot Dixie Chick - June 13 - Churchill Downs - 100
*Jackson Bend - October 17 - Calder - 100
By the way, Mike Welsch is reporting that Jackson Bend will be transferred to trainer Nick Zito after a majority interest in the colt was sold to Bob LaPenta.
I love your Blog and am an avid follower.
I find the current interest in fillies and mares competing against older top quality males in route races on dirt fascinating. This, of course brings back memories of some of the tough distaffers from back in the day. I have long been a fan of Princessnesian, who defeated Racing Room and Quicken Tree in the 1968 Hollywood Gold Cup at 1-1/4M on dirt as a 4 y-o. Her rival at the time was Gamely, also no stranger to tackling the top males in routes and who finished 2nd to Nodouble in the 1969 Santa Anita Hdcp. with Quicken Tree finishing 3rd. A few years later, in 1977, the great mare Cascapedia finished 2nd to Crystal Waters in the Gold Cup.
Could you please download their past performances.
I had trouble downloading Princessnesian, but here are the lifetime past performances of Gamely and Cascapedia:
Can't remember where i saw the post and/or comment regarding preps for the Breeder's Cup races pointing out that all winners except midnight lute either won their last two or won one and ran 2nd or 3rd in the other. Please help
Love the education I get on this blog. Keep it coming.
Here are the last two prep results for the 2008 Breeders' Cup champions:
Classic: Raven's Pass - 1st Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1st Celebration Mile
FM Turf: Forever Together - 1st First Lady, 3rd Canadian
Juvenile: Midshipman - 2nd Norfolk, 1st Del Mar Futurity
Juvenile Fillies: Stardom Bound - 1st Oak Leaf, 1st Del Mar Debutante
Ladies' Classic - Zenyatta - 1st Lady's Secret, 1st Clement L. Hirsch
Mile: Goldikova - 1st Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, 1st Prix Rothschild
Sprint: Midnight Lute - 10th Pat O'Brien (only prior start in 2008)
Turf: Conduit - 1st St. Leger, 1st Gordon
FM Sprint: Ventura - 2nd Woodbine Mile, 2nd CashCall Mile
Marathon: Muhannak - 1st Diamond, 1st Betdaq
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Maram - 1st Miss Grillo, 1st $75,000 maiden claimer
Juvenile Turf: Donativum - 1st Tattersalls Timeform Million, 1st EBF and EDP Maiden
Dirt Mile: Albertus Maximus - 3rd Goodwood, 1st Windy Sands
Turf Sprint: Desert Code, 7th Morvich, 5th Triple Bend
Dan, will you please post the pp's for Ramonti, Starcraft and Rikti?
...Dan,or anyone who knows, what were Summer Bird,Tiznow, Baenardini, and Curlin doing between June of their 2yo season and their first race? Why didn't they run sooner?
...That's why I like the World Thoroughbred Rankings. They rank all horses by the same number system. Does Timeform or The Racing Post do ratings for american races/horses?
...Dan, how much better is the racing in Great Britain than the racing in the rest of Europe?
Here they are:
Curlin had bucked shins, and Summer Bird had ankle problems while training in Southern California for John Sadler. Bernardini had undisclosed "minor problems," while Tiznow was injured in training.
The Racing Post has international ratings listed on their website. Rachel Alexandra is the top "dirt" horse on their system with a 129. Summer Bird is at 127. Quality Road and Zensational are listed at 125. Zenyatta and Bullsbay check in at 124. For the Euros, Rip Van Winkle is ranked 132 with Mastercraftsman at 129.
In Bet With The Best, Alan Shuback rates European races like this:
A - British G1, French G1, Irish G1
B - British G2, French G2, Irish G2, German G1, Italian G1
C - British G3, French G3, Irish G3, German G2, Italian G2
D - British Listed, French Listed, German G3, Italian G3
E - Irish Listed, German Listed, Italian Listed
I've always believed that horses shipping in from France have a slight advantage over their British/Irish counterparts, but don't have the stats to prove the theory.
Now what do you say if Gio Ponti wins the Classic?...That would mean he has faced everyone in front of him ALL year AND included the "super bowl"...which would also mean 5 Grade 1's against the best talent there is.
Dan you can also throw your two cents in this one as well as I would like to see your opinion.
A win in the Classic would cap a tremendous campaign for Gio Ponti, but I'm still not sure it would eclipse Rachel Alexandra's historic season. The BC Classic, Arlington Million, Man o'War, Manhattan, and Kilroe would make a strong top five, but does it match up to a three-year-old filly that won the Woodward, Haskell, Preakness, Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, Fantasy, Fair Grounds Oaks, and Martha Washington? Plus, you'd have to consider Gio Ponti's losses in the Turf Classic and Strub. Gio Ponti has had a remarkable year. Rachel had one for the ages.
You are definitely one of the hardest working men in Win, Place, and Show-Biz. Thanks again for all you do. What's the biggest longshot you ever hit (odds-wise, I mean)?
Last year, I gave out two 52-1 winners at Santa Anita on the live "Out of the Gate" program for the NYC-OTB channel. Air Commander won the Grade 2 San Fernando on January 12 at $106.40. On February 16, Turbo Fan won a $25,000 maiden claimer first-out at $106.00. I bet both to win.
I am an old man, so my memory fails on occasion, but, I could have sworn Just Whistle Dixie scratched out of a race that both she and RA were entered.
...I find it interesting that Capt Candyman Cans' connections will go in the sprint. I would think he would have went off at lower odds in the mile and I would have given him a better shot at winning. One way is a furlong short of what I consider his best distance and the other a furlong to long......I am curious though... is this a statement about the connections feelings about their horse or is it more of a statement about how they feel about Zen and Fatal Bullet and a chance at a collapse. We shall see, any thoughts?..Craig
Justwhistledixie scratched out of the Kentucky Oaks with a foot abscess.
I think the connections are planning on running Capt. Candyman Can in the Sprint due to the fact that the "Dirt" Mile will be contested around two turns. If this year's BC was at Belmont, we might have seen him in the Dirt Mile, but stretching him around two turns might be a bit much at this point.
Any shot at posting PP's for Skip Away, Siphon, Sandpit & Alphabet Soup? Thanks in advance.
Here they are:
Download Handicap Stars
Dan , could you download any more of the Euros that are coming over to the BC. I appreciate the job you do making PPs available.
Here's what I have for some of the potential European starters:
I've been feeling a little bit like my old crush horse lately and I was wondering if you could post his PP's. His name was Zippy Chippy. Thanks.
Here's what I have for Zippy Chippy:
Does anyone know if Meadowlands still runs that great Halloween starter handicap where all the horses have to be grey? If so, I'll have to take a swing next Saturday.
The Grey Ghost Starter Handicap will be run this Saturday at the Big M.
Dan, since you are the king of two-year olds, and since you have to answer this, what did you think of Connemara's win? Am I overstating it? I can take it.
This looks like a very serious young horse, and I thank Slew for bringing his name up to the blog. The race in question is the tenth at Turfway on October 4, a maiden special weight at one mile on polytrack. It's never easy to win first-out going two turns, but Connemara not only did it, he did it easily after a miserable trip. He broke ten lengths slow, made this huge six wide midrace move to contention, took over at will, and accelerated nicely in the final furlong. The runner-up, another Pletcher-trained baby, returned to win at Keeneland over the weekend with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure.
He's a half-brother to Lion Heart, the winner of the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at two, and the Grade 1 Haskell at three, and runner-up to Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby. Another sibling, French Satin, won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks.
He has the pedigree, connections (trained by Todd Pletcher, owned by Tabor, Magnier, and Smith), and seems to have the raw ability necessary to be stakes-class. By the way, he's now in Southern California (BC Bound?) as he worked five furlongs over the Pro-Ride on October 18 in 1:01.80 handily.
Do you know if a Kiaran McLaughlin 2 year old named "MUHAASEB" has run since his debut? I think this one might be a derby horse. He ran huge first time out going 5.5f's at Belmont on the 16th of Sept I believe and I haven't seen him run since. Any updates would be appreciated. Thanks.
Muhasseb, a $425,000 yearling by Ghostzapper, is owned by Shadwell Stable. He made his debut for McLaughlin on September 19, and finished second with a 69 Beyer Speed Figure. He worked a half-mile at Belmont on October 2, but hasn't been seen since. He's kin to several blacktype earners including Runway Model, the winner of the Golden Rod and Alcibiades as a juvenile filly.
Loved this HG race:
The top pick for me would be the #9 Coatcheck Girl:
off the claim..has positional speed...should "relish" this down hill course with plenty of speed to stalk and pounce.
since just betting to win won't win the contest..I have to come up with a exacta or triple so:
how about just a $100 exacta on
#9 Coatcheck Girl with #8 Dash Dot Dash
Congrats to Mickey for finishing first in last week's HG exercise. He selects Race 7 at Oak Tree on Wednesday for HG 157. Here are the past performances:
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
I'd like HG158 to be the BC Classic next Saturday.
Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:
Talk to you soon.
Locked out of the comments for the new thread for some reason, so will say my congats to "Zan" here: nice job with the HG cold exacta wager!
hit a superfecta and lose. Only in HG. If I'd have known what the odds were going to be I swear I would have bet a $100 3-2 exacta. I DO NOT think Goldikova is ducking anyone. I said that because someone thinks she's so awesome that RVW is going in the Classic to avoid her. If she's that good(RVW trying to avoid her)she should go for the ultimate prize...the Classic. You can add an extra 8th to quarter of a mile to the Euro's but the turf they run on translates better to sythetics than normal dirt. Gio Ponti isn't ducking anyone either. To say that you'd have to say that his connections think the Classic is an easier race, which it's not. The Classic is harder for Ponti to win than the Turf would have been. He's going for the glory! Can't see Ponti's connections saying "we can't win the Turf so let's try the Classic instead, we have a better chance there." Ouija Board ran in the right race. The Classic wasn't on a synthetic surface, that Euro's had dominated the year before, in 2006. If the 2005 BC was at CD and Euro's had dominated it, then you may have seen Ouija try the 2006 Classic at CD. The same Classic George Washington was in and ran like 5th to Invasor, Bernardini and that crew. The Classic may not always have the best winner of the day, but it is the Biggest race of the day not matter what. I don't mind going out on a limb and saying things like "no chance". I'm confident enough to say that. I'll put my opinion out there. I'm not scared of being wrong and everyone knowing it. MTB has "no chance" in the Classic, just like that TP maiden winner has no chance in the Juvie. Not trying to knock your horse, but the bettors aren't going to make a TP maiden winner "only" 20-1 in the Juvie. I don't think the betting public will like him enough for that "short" of odds. You'll get huge odds on him. If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it.
oops- thanks Tom I spaced on my wager I will change it to a $25 trifecta 1,4/ 1,3,4/1,3,4
Blackstone -- IMO stands for "in my opinion" -- JMO means "just my opinion", a slightly "weaker" statement that usually means it's not a point you want to get heavily involved in a debate over (that's how I use it, anyway). IMHO means "in my humble opinion" -- this one has lots of uses. I like to use it in the ironic sense (IMHO, everything you just said is a bunch of bulls**t), but I also use it seriously, like when I basically agree with someone's argument, but either have something to add, or I want to highlight a minor point I do disagree with. For a lot of people, however, the three are basically interchangeable. While we're on the subject of dumb, I keep forgetting to ask what "MKB" stands for. There's another acronym with a "Y" in it I see on this blog from time to time. Laura: A few weeks ago, I had a question for you that I think you must have missed. Since it looks like you're posting regularly again, here goes. It seems to me that breeding Zenyatta to A.P. Indy is a no-brainer, but with A.P. Indy turning 21 next year, the Moss's are going to have to be on the lookout for a suitable future stallion. So, if you have the time, I was wondering if you could analyze the A.P. Indy cross (assuming you agree that that's the way to go -- if the Moss's have made a breeding announcement, I'm not aware of it). I'm just as interested, however, in any alternative stallions that would make for a good cross. Wondering if a couple of traits she has would enter your thinking: 1) she's devoid of early speed and 2) she's big -- really, really big. Thanks in advance.
(sorry if this is twice--I timed out and I'm not sure the first got through) HG 157: 28Oct09 7Hol Seven distaffers 3yo and up in what is basically a NWX1 going a mile on the Santa Anita turf course. Let’s see what we have: 1-Bombina (GB)—Espinoza/Walsh Kathy 120 FTL 6-1 A string of solid works on the Hollywood synthetic course culminating in a handy 59.2, best of 23 bullet. Walsh has an excellent record with horses on a layoff and with first-out when she takes over but this one was meeting 2nd and 3rd stringers in GB—Espinoza leaves the 3 for this but still hard to like. 2-My Maloof Rocker—Bejarano/Troeger Robert 124 $40,000 L 5-2 Back in 19 days off a 40k win-this one is 19/28 ITM and this one has 4 of her 5 wins at this level—and 3 of those over this course—connections put her in for the tag which tells me they want the win—versatile; can stalk or might just repeat last gate to wire effort—the pick. 3-Mohaka--Gomez G/Semkin Sam 120 Blk-Off L3-1 This one always seems to give a good effort—but does she have the will to win? So close so often—could the blinks off and Gomez on make the difference? BSFs fit—must consider. 4-Andalacia (IRE)—Solis/Gallagher Patrick 116 L 7-2 This filly will be flying late but will she have enough pace to run at and she must start running a bit earlier to get her picture taken. Ignore two back and she looks like a contender but pace scenario looks tough. 5-Fire n' Brimstone--Blanc B/Hofmans David 120 L 15-1 Like the one above, this 4yo must have some honest fractions to close on and frankly, her numbers seem to be headed in the wrong direction—would be a surprise. 6-Dextera (GER)--Flores D/Cassidy James 118 L4-1 Here’s one that got the quick pace she needs and pulled a minor upset--note runner-up in last came back with HG win last week. All depends on the speed . . . 7-Malibu Win--Santiago Reyes/Capestro Paula 1115 L 8-1 Here’s the target—nice zinger 3 days ago should have this one one her toes—cut back to a mile makes sense and the only danger up front is the 2—No favors with post but in this small a field and nearly 3/16 to the first turn, gaining an inside position should not be a problem—could be seeyalaterbye. I see the 2 as the top choice but with the lone true speed of the 8, I have to consider the pace scenario and the ROI possibilities (though I don’t think I’ll get 8-1): $60 EX 7-1 $5 Tri Wheel 1,7/1,6,7/1,3,6,7 Good Luck and Good Racing
I am in general agreement with this statement: Equidaily.com comment: We'll take exception with Finley's [and others] contention that the owners, "squandered Zenyatta's biggest opportunity -- to take on and defeat Rachel Alexandra..." Rachel Alexandra ran in age-restricted races until the Woodward -- and the decision to run there wasn't made until about twelve days before the race -- hardly a situation where the connections of Zenyatta can be faulted for not taking up the challenge to go cross-country and run in a race they weren't pointing to on short-notice. So, in fact, the Zenyatta vs Rachel opportunities were virtually nil -- not 'squandered'.
EnglishChannel: It's been over 8 years, but last time I was in Paris in April I caught the races at Auteuil (sp?). A rather charming (some might say decrepit) facility, it's in the Bois de Bologne (again-sp?) next to Longchamp on the west side. The Metro will take you there--get off at the stop for the tennis stadium, Roland Garros and a short walk will do. Pick up a racing form a few days before you go(parlais vous?)they are available all over the country. I should warn you however that Auteuil races are over obstacles--I didn't know the French word for hedge until the races started LOL!!!
HandiGambling 157 Blinkers Off is perhaps my favorite angle, and although we have no statistics for trainer Semkin as it pertains to this move, I still have to back MOHAKA (#3) for the top spot in this. I like the angle, jockey Gomez is a plus, and this filly really has managed some nice runs of late, and gets in a bit easier here, I think. DEXTERA (Ger) is logical based on her last, and she should be closing late. MY MALOOF ROCKER (#2) is much too underlaid for my tastes (5/2?), but does fit at this class level based on many of her races She does tend to finish in the money, and should do so in here as well. My play: $8 Superfecta, 3w/2,6w/2,6w/1,4,5,7 ($96) $.20 Superfecta, 2,3,6w/2,3,6w/2,3,6w/1,4,6,7 ($3.60) Total: $99.60 That leaves $.40 for Obama, although I suspect he wants a bit more (snort). Good luck, good people. Have fun, be safe, and let’s try to make a few bucks out there on this race ☺!
HG 157: 28Oct09 7Hol Seven distaffers 3yo and up in what is basically a NWX1 going a mile on the Santa Anita turf course. Let’s see what we have: 1-Bombina (GB)—Espinoza/Walsh Kathy 120 FTL 6-1 A string of solid works on the Hollywood synthetic course culminating in a handy 59.2, best of 23 bullet. Walsh has an excellent record with horses on a layoff and with first-out when she takes over but this one was meeting 2nd and 3rd stringers in GB—Espinoza leaves the 3 for this but still hard to like. 2-My Maloof Rocker—Bejarano/Troeger Robert 124 $40,000 L 5-2 Back in 19 days off a 40k win-this one is 19/28 ITM and this one has 4 of her 5 wins at this level—and 3 of those over this course—connections put her in for the tag which tells me they want the win—versatile; can stalk or might just repeat last gate to wire effort—the pick. 3-Mohaka--Gomez G/Semkin Sam 120 Blk-Off L3-1 This one always seems to give a good effort—but does she have the will to win? So close so often—could the blinks off and Gomez on make the difference? BSFs fit—must consider. 4-Andalacia (IRE)—Solis/Gallagher Patrick 116 L 7-2 This filly will be flying late but will she have enough pace to run at and she must start running a bit earlier to get her picture taken. Ignore two back and she looks like a contender but pace scenario looks tough. 5-Fire n' Brimstone--Blanc B/Hofmans David 120 L 15-1 Like the one above, this 4yo must have some honest fractions to close on and frankly, her numbers seem to be headed in the wrong direction—would be a surprise. 6-Dextera (GER)--Flores D/Cassidy James 118 L4-1 Here’s one that got the quick pace she needs and pulled a minor upset--note runner-up in last came back with HG win last week. All depends on the speed . . . 7-Malibu Win--Santiago Reyes/Capestro Paula 1115 L 8-1 Here’s the target—nice zinger 3 days ago should have this one one her toes—cut back to a mile makes sense and the only danger up front is the 2—No favors with post but in this small a field and nearly 3/16 to the first turn, gaining an inside position should not be a problem—could be seeyalaterbye. I see the 2 as the top choice but with the lone true speed of the 8, I have to consider the pace scenario and the ROI possibilities (though I don’t think I’ll get 8-1): $60 EX 7-1 $5 Tri Wheel 1,7/1,6,7/1,3,6,7 Good Luck and Good Racing
HG 157 I find it difficult to find any throw outs in this race. There is at least some positive for each entrant. I will post my comments here and place my bet later. 1 - Bombina - good works, good trainer stats with these types. I will probably take a stand against this one and will probably pay for it. 2 - My Maloof Rocker - consistent, versatile, gives a good effort almost every time. I expect to hit the board at least. 3 - Mohaka -Competetive beyers, gets Gomez and will probably get bet. Another win candidate who should hit the board. Been a little disappointing in the win column. 4 - Andalacia - Has been closing fast. Lightly raced and seems to me to have some upside. Solis should know her also. I am leaning towards this one as the pick. 5 - Fire n' Brimstone - Her best would put her in the mix and I actually like Blanc. He is a very capable turf rider. Hard to support a deep closer who seems to always give themselves too much to do down the stretch. I don't expect her to be 15 to 1 however. 6 - Dextera - That last was a nice one. She got the needed pace and a nice trip. I am expecting her to regress a bit from that lifetime best beyer. But has to be considered. 7 - Malibu Win - speed and gets in light. Could be a surprise, but I will have to side with others. Back later with my bet. I'm having a hard time finding much separation with these. Dick W