10/26/2009 6:46PM

Beyers, questions, pp's, etc.

Email

Saw a pretty nice juvenile filly run at Keeneland on Sunday.  Donna Getyourgun, a second-time starter trained by Ian Wilkes and ridden by Julien Leparoux, was an impressive maiden winner of the seventh race.  She earned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure, but received quite an education, and only was asked for run during the final eighth of a mile.  Leparoux rode the Stormy Atlantic half-sister to Clearly a Queen (multiple Grade 3 winner going long on turf) with supreme confidence, sticking her in behind horses until the final furlong before calling on her to kick.  And kick she did, finishing her last eighth in 11.58.  This was her second lifetime start (she finished second in her debut at Arlington), and first with Lasix, and she may be one to watch when the second round of stakes races for juvenile fillies begins at Churchill Downs.

***

As for wagering, as I was answering you I came up with an interesting angle (DAN-CHIP IN ON THIS) If you see a horse second off a layoff who's usual style is to come from off the pace but who showed speed first off layoff, providing there's some "back class" that may be a bettable horse at a nice price?
stephen taylor

It's an interesting angle if you believe that the returning back-classer is using the race as a "workout" instead of a true run.  I'd advise handicappers to watch the rider in this case.  See if the jockey aggressively urges the mount to grab the early lead in the hope of giving the horse a good quarter-mile to three-eighth's test.  As the horse tires from the early effort, watch to see if the jockey takes it easy during the final three-eighths or so.  If the jockey isn't keeping after the mount, one could assume that the race was merely used as a stepping-stone for something down the road.  I'd consider this angle a bit more powerful if the next race coincides with a stretchout in distance.

***

Although I must admit I do not know how many other two year olds have received a 100 BSF or higher this year.
vicstu

Here's the list for 2-year-olds with 100 or greater Beyers in 2009:

*Hot Dixie Chick - July 29 - Saratoga - 103
*Uh Oh Bango - September 18 - Prairie Meadows - 102
*Hot Dixie Chick - June 13 - Churchill Downs - 100
*Jackson Bend - October 17 - Calder - 100

By the way, Mike Welsch is reporting that Jackson Bend will be transferred to trainer Nick Zito after a majority interest in the colt was sold to Bob LaPenta.

***

Dan:
I love your Blog and am an avid follower.
I find the current interest in fillies and mares competing against older top quality males in route races on dirt fascinating.  This, of course brings back memories of some of the tough distaffers from back in the day.  I have long been a fan of Princessnesian, who defeated Racing Room and Quicken Tree in the 1968 Hollywood Gold Cup at 1-1/4M on dirt as a 4 y-o.  Her rival at the time was Gamely, also no stranger to tackling the top males in routes and who finished 2nd to Nodouble in the 1969 Santa Anita Hdcp. with Quicken Tree finishing 3rd.  A few years later, in 1977, the great mare Cascapedia finished 2nd to Crystal Waters in the Gold Cup.
Could you please download their past performances.
LAZMANNICK

I had trouble downloading Princessnesian, but here are the lifetime past performances of Gamely and Cascapedia:

Download Cascapedia

Download Gamely

***


Hi Dan
Can't remember where i saw the post and/or comment regarding preps for the Breeder's Cup races pointing out that all winners except midnight lute either won their last two or won one and ran 2nd or 3rd in the other. Please help
Love the education I get on this blog.  Keep it coming.
Thanks
fashion slipper

Here are the last two prep results for the 2008 Breeders' Cup champions:

Classic:  Raven's Pass - 1st Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1st Celebration Mile
FM Turf:  Forever Together - 1st First Lady, 3rd Canadian
Juvenile:  Midshipman - 2nd Norfolk, 1st Del Mar Futurity
Juvenile Fillies:  Stardom Bound - 1st Oak Leaf, 1st Del Mar Debutante
Ladies' Classic - Zenyatta - 1st Lady's Secret, 1st Clement L. Hirsch
Mile:  Goldikova - 1st Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, 1st Prix Rothschild
Sprint:  Midnight Lute - 10th Pat O'Brien (only prior start in 2008)
Turf:  Conduit - 1st St. Leger, 1st Gordon
FM Sprint:  Ventura - 2nd Woodbine Mile, 2nd CashCall Mile
Marathon:  Muhannak - 1st Diamond, 1st Betdaq
Juvenile Fillies Turf:  Maram - 1st Miss Grillo, 1st $75,000 maiden claimer
Juvenile Turf:  Donativum - 1st Tattersalls Timeform Million, 1st EBF and EDP Maiden
Dirt Mile:  Albertus Maximus - 3rd Goodwood, 1st Windy Sands
Turf Sprint:  Desert Code, 7th Morvich, 5th Triple Bend

***

Dan, will you please post the pp's for Ramonti, Starcraft and Rikti?
...Dan,or anyone who knows, what were Summer Bird,Tiznow, Baenardini, and Curlin doing between June of their 2yo season and their first race?  Why didn't they run sooner?
...That's why I like the World Thoroughbred Rankings.  They rank all horses by the same number system.  Does Timeform or The Racing Post do ratings for american races/horses?
...Dan, how much better is the racing in Great Britain than the racing in the rest of Europe?
Captain Bodgit

Here they are:

Download Euro milers


Curlin had bucked shins, and Summer Bird had ankle problems while training in Southern California for John Sadler.  Bernardini had undisclosed "minor problems," while Tiznow was injured in training.


The Racing Post has international ratings listed on their website.  Rachel Alexandra is the top "dirt" horse on their system with a 129.  Summer Bird is at 127.  Quality Road and Zensational are listed at 125.  Zenyatta and Bullsbay check in at 124.  For the Euros, Rip Van Winkle is ranked 132 with Mastercraftsman at 129.

In Bet With The Best, Alan Shuback rates European races like this:

A - British G1, French G1, Irish G1
B - British G2, French G2, Irish G2, German G1, Italian G1
C - British G3, French G3, Irish G3, German G2, Italian G2
D - British Listed, French Listed, German G3, Italian G3
E - Irish Listed, German Listed, Italian Listed

I've always believed that horses shipping in from France have a slight advantage over their British/Irish counterparts, but don't have the stats to prove the theory.

***

Now what do you say if Gio Ponti wins the Classic?...That would mean he has faced everyone in front of him ALL year AND included the "super bowl"...which would also mean 5 Grade 1's against the best talent there is.
Dan you can also throw your two cents in this one as well as I would like to see your opinion.
Mickey


A win in the Classic would cap a tremendous campaign for Gio Ponti, but I'm still not sure it would eclipse Rachel Alexandra's historic season.  The BC Classic, Arlington Million, Man o'War, Manhattan, and Kilroe would make a strong top five, but does it match up to a three-year-old filly that won the Woodward, Haskell, Preakness, Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, Fantasy, Fair Grounds Oaks, and Martha Washington?  Plus, you'd have to consider Gio Ponti's losses in the Turf Classic and Strub.  Gio Ponti has had a remarkable year.  Rachel had one for the ages.

***

Dan:
You are definitely one of the hardest working men in Win, Place, and Show-Biz.  Thanks again for all you do.  What's the biggest longshot you ever hit (odds-wise, I mean)?
alanh

Last year, I gave out two 52-1 winners at Santa Anita on the live "Out of the Gate" program for the NYC-OTB channel.  Air Commander won the Grade 2 San Fernando on January 12 at $106.40.  On February 16, Turbo Fan won a $25,000 maiden claimer first-out at $106.00.  I bet both to win. 

***

I am an old man, so my memory fails on occasion, but, I could have sworn Just Whistle Dixie scratched out of a race that both she and RA were entered.
...I find it interesting that Capt Candyman Cans' connections will go in the sprint.  I would think he would have went off at lower odds in the mile and I would have given him a better shot at winning.  One way is a furlong short of what I consider his best distance and the other a furlong to long......I am curious though... is this a statement about the connections feelings about their horse or is it more of a statement about how they feel about Zen and Fatal Bullet and a chance at a collapse.  We shall see, any thoughts?..
Craig


Justwhistledixie scratched out of the Kentucky Oaks with a foot abscess.

I think the connections are planning on running Capt. Candyman Can in the Sprint due to the fact that the "Dirt" Mile will be contested around two turns.  If this year's BC was at Belmont, we might have seen him in the Dirt Mile, but stretching him around two turns might be a bit much at this point.

***

Dan,
Any shot at posting PP's for Skip Away, Siphon, Sandpit & Alphabet Soup?  Thanks in advance.
Pat Copelan

Here they are:

Download Handicap Stars

***

Dan , could  you download  any  more  of  the  Euros  that  are  coming  over  to  the  BC. I appreciate  the  job  you  do making  PPs  available.
Thanks, again.
C. Warner

Here's what I have for some of the potential European starters:

Download Possible Euros

***

Dan,
I've been feeling a little bit like my old crush horse lately and I was wondering if you could post his PP's. His name was Zippy Chippy. Thanks.
scianc22

Here's what I have for Zippy Chippy:

Download Zippy Chippy

***

Does anyone know if Meadowlands still runs that great Halloween starter handicap where all the horses have to be grey?  If so, I'll have to take a swing next Saturday.
alanh

The Grey Ghost Starter Handicap will be run this Saturday at the Big M.

***

Dan, since you are the king of two-year olds, and since you have to answer this, what did you think of Connemara's win? Am I overstating it? I can take it.
slewofdamascus

This looks like a very serious young horse, and I thank Slew for bringing his name up to the blog.  The race in question is the tenth at Turfway on October 4, a maiden special weight at one mile on polytrack.  It's never easy to win first-out going two turns, but Connemara not only did it, he did it easily after a miserable trip.  He broke ten lengths slow, made this huge six wide midrace move  to contention, took over at will, and accelerated nicely in the final furlong.  The runner-up, another Pletcher-trained baby, returned to win at Keeneland over the weekend with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. 
He's a half-brother to Lion Heart, the winner of the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at two, and the Grade 1 Haskell at three, and runner-up to Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby.  Another sibling, French Satin, won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks.
He has the pedigree, connections (trained by Todd Pletcher, owned by Tabor, Magnier, and Smith), and seems to have the raw ability necessary to be stakes-class.  By the way, he's now in Southern California (BC Bound?) as he worked five furlongs over the Pro-Ride on October 18 in 1:01.80 handily.

***

Dan,
Do you know if a Kiaran McLaughlin 2 year old named "MUHAASEB" has run since his debut? I think this one might be a derby horse. He ran huge first time out going 5.5f's at Belmont on the 16th of Sept I believe and I haven't seen him run since. Any updates would be appreciated. Thanks.
Causeways37

Muhasseb, a $425,000 yearling by Ghostzapper, is owned by Shadwell Stable.  He made his debut for McLaughlin on September 19, and finished second with a 69 Beyer Speed Figure.  He worked a half-mile at Belmont on October 2, but hasn't been seen since. He's kin to several blacktype earners including Runway Model, the winner of the Golden Rod and Alcibiades as a juvenile filly.

***

Loved this HG race:
The top pick for me would be the #9 Coatcheck Girl:
off the claim..has positional speed...should "relish" this down hill course with plenty of speed to stalk and pounce.
since just betting to win won't win the contest..I have to come up with a exacta or triple so:
how about just a $100 exacta on
#9 Coatcheck Girl with #8 Dash Dot Dash
$100-  9/8
Mickey

Congrats to Mickey for finishing first in last week's HG exercise.  He selects Race 7 at Oak Tree on Wednesday for HG 157.  Here are the past performances:

Download HG157

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

I'd like HG158 to be the BC Classic next Saturday.

***

Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:

Download High and Low

***

Talk to you soon.

Dan