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Beyers, 'cappers, Derby stuff, etc.
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:
*Texas Mile (LS): Monterey Jazz (C. Dollase/D. Flores) - 118
*Withers (Aqu): Harlem Rocker (T. Pletcher/E. Coa) - 106
*NTRA (Hol): Dancing in Silks (C. Gaines/J. Rosario) - 103
*Elkhorn (Kee): Dancing Forever (C. McGaughey III/R. Douglas) - 102
*Mervyn LeRoy (Hol): Surf Cat (B. Headley/A. Solis) - 102
*Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint (CRC): Lookinforthesecret (J. Ness/D. Centeno) - 101
*Mairzy Doates (CRC): Mauralakana - Fr (C. Clement/R. Douglas) - 101
*Fort Marcy (Aqu): Silver Tree (W. Mott/E. Prado) - 100
*Derby Trial (CD): Macho Again (D. Stewart/J. Leparoux) - 99
*Henry S. Clark (Pim): Stay Close - GB (M. Zwiesler/A. Napranvik) - 99
*Tiznow (Hol): Stella Mark (T. West/B. Blanc) - 99
*Beaugay (Aqu): Criminologist (C. McGaughey III/J. Velazquez) - 98
*Wilshire (Hol): Diamond Diva - GB (J. Cassidy/D. Flores) - 98
*Milwaukee Avenue (Haw): Instill (J. Wainwright/J. Campbell) - 98
*Khaled (Hol): Mr. Wolverine (J. Gutierrez/M. Baze) - 97
*Chicagoland (Haw): High Expectations (C. Janks/C. Emigh) - 96
*Jacques Cartier (WO): Legal Move (M. Casse/S. Husbands) - 96
*Harry Henson (Hol): Sky Cape (K. Mulhall/V. Espinoza) - 96
*Emergency Nurse (Crc): Moon Catcher (C. Clement/M. Cruz) - 95
*B. Thoughtful (Hol): Spenditallbaby (B. Abrams/M. Baze) - 94
*Bay Meadows (BM): Bold Chieftain (W. Morey Jr./R. Baze) - 94
*Calder Oaks (CRC): Ginger Brew (B. Lynch/J. Castellano) - 93
*Golden Circle (PrM): Maya's Storm (K. Von Hemel/E. Razo Jr.) - 93
*Sandra Hall Grand Canyon (TuP): White Spar (K. Lewis/S. Gann) - 92
*Stampede Park Sprint (StP): Ronaldino (T. Jordan/Q. Welch) - 91
*Sweetzie (Aqu): Altesse (C. McGaughey III/R. Dominguez) - 90
*Wando (WO): Bonanza (M. Casse/P. Husbands) - 90
*Arizona Breeders' Derby (TuP): Ez Dreamer (R. Owens/S. Stevens) - 90
*Fran's Valentine (Hol): Tutta Bella (J. Sadler/G. Gomez) - 90
*Bewitch (Kee): Communique (G. Arnold II/G. Gomez) - 89
*Russell and Hellen Foutz Distaff (SRP): Peppers Pride (J. Marr/C. Madeira) - 89
*Irving Distaff (LS): Tears I Cry (C. Autrey/M. Berry) - 89
*Richland Hills Farm (LS): Timely Reflection (W. Calhoun/B. Walker Jr.) - 88
*M. R. Jenkins Memorial (StP): Beth's Best Bet (J. Meyaard/R. Walcott) - 87
*Governor's Lady (Haw): Secret Kin (C. Block/E. Perez) - 87
*Calder Derby (CRC): Sporting Art (C. Clement/J. Castellano) - 86
*Barretts (Hol): Bestdressed (D. McFarlane/J. Court) - 85
*Howard B. Noonan (Beu): Marble Cliff (W. Cowans/L. Martinez Jr.) - 85
*Goldfinch (PrM): Lindsey's Wish (K. Von Hemel/E. Razo Jr.) - 83
*Land of Lincoln (Haw): Classic R. J. (T. Amoss/J. Graham) - 81
*Francis "Jock" LaBelle Memorial (Del): Go Go Shoot (J. Ryerson/R. Dominguez) - 81
*Grand Prairie Turf Challenge (LS): Lee's Spirit (R. Schultz/E. Tejera) - 81
*Fury (WO): Shilla (N. Gonzalez/D. Clark) - 81
*Warren's Thoroughbreds (Hol): Sangay (B. Headley/M. Smith) - 80
*Dwight D. Patterson (TuP): Goinwest (B. Pitnick/O. Martinez Jr.) -79
*Anne Ownes Distaff (TuP): Miss Helene (M. Pearson/A. Morales) - 79
*Peach of It (Haw): Stop a Train (C. Janks/C. Emigh) - 79
*Bosselman/Gus Fonner (Fon): The Nutz (S. Hall/D. Herber Jr.) - 78
*Snow Chief (Hol): Harlene (D. O'Neill/M. Baze) - 77
*Melair (Hol): Bel Air Sizzle (B. Abrams/R. Bejarano) - 75 (*Gambler's Justice finished first with 77 Beyer, but was dq'd to third)
*Joanne Dye (TuP): Cave Springs (K. Lewis/S. Gann) - 72
*Lady Hallie (Haw): Silver Stairs (A. Hansen/T. Riggs) - 72
*Magali (Hol): Sensitive Soul (D. Hendricks/V. Espinoza) - 71
Here are the lifetime past performances of Monterey Jazz:
Pride does look like a good pick in KEE1 today (of course, as usual that's the "Kiss of Death"!)...
Thank goodness she won as it would have been the donut for me with the Keeneland Babies if she didn't. The Pletcher juveniles were on fire at Keeneland with Pride looking solid, and Mr. Mistoffelees looking like a future star. Keep an eye on Baton Rouge. The Keeneland Clocker Report for April 12 reported that Baton Rouge gave a "sharp gate work, in company with Mr. Mistofelees with Baton Rouge holding a slight edge." Baton Rouge is a son of Fusaichi Pegasus out of Brown Eyes, by Danehill.
Handicapper(s) of the Week:
In between editing and writing for Steve T.'s tutorials, teaching, and moving, I managed to pick this week's free races.
Circle or cross out my picks as you wish. Ponderings follow.
Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, Race #3) --> 1. Harlem Rocker 2. J Be K (1-2)
I think J Be K may get coaxed, then cooked, in a speed duel with the Dutrow horse. So I'll side with Harlem Rocker, with Coa up for 36% local connections. Putting J Be K second out of respect for being three for three around one turn, and since there's not much else here.
Calder Derby (Calder, Race #10) --> 1. Sporting Art 2. Run Sully Run 3. El Sultry Sun 4. Flying Dismount (2-5-12-10)
Sporting Art has never tossed a bad one in six lifetime starts, and it's hard to argue with Clement on the turf.
Bosselman/Gus Fonner Stakes (Fonner Park, Race 9) --> 1. The Nutz 2. Wayzata Bay 3. Okie Dozer 4. Blumin Attitude (1-5-4-3)
Exceptional connections (28% trainer, 36% sprint to route), and a 390 distance Tomlinson lead me to The Nutz in this bull ring stakes. Wayzata Bay has the BSFs and is a last-out winner in Tampa, but this one seems a bit too inconsistent.
Withers- I think Double or Nothing will put enough pressure on J Be K to soften him up and allow HARLEM ROCKER to get the win.
Calder Derby- SPORTING ART should get a dream trip behind the early speed and get home with a win. Third start in his form cycle, he should be sitting on a big race.
Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint-
LOOKINFORTHESECRET will turn the tables on Blue Pepsi Lodge. Five furlongs on turf is his game. He will break a length in front and run 'em off their feet. BPL will try to hang on.
No thank you. BOLD CHIEFTAIN will stalk here and get past Now Victory in the lane.
I am not exactly picking any long shots here, but this is what I will be playing this weekend.
Lone Star Park
Texas Mile - Monterey Jazz to win.
Race #7 - Surf Cat
Race #2 - Spenditallbaby with Tiz Elemental exacta
Harlem Rocker upended J Be K for a $10.60 cold exacta in the Withers. Sporting Art looked good taking the Calder Derby as the favorite, and The Nutz pulled off the HUGE upset for PGM in the Bosselman/Gus Fonner at Fonner Park. He paid $52 to win, and the cold exacta with Wayzata Bay returned $190.40. Lookinforthesecret is a consistent, versatile runner, and he went wire-to-window for cayman01 in the Bob Umphrey at $14.60. Bold Chieftain scored as the heavy favorite at Bay Meadows. Supah Blitz nailed a big exacta ($34.80 for a buck) on Sunday at Hollywood. Nice handicapping!
HOLLYWOOD PARK – Sunday (04-27-2008)
A very nice card, from the first to last race. Many opportunities for big pays from this group.
TUTTA BELLA is the first choice among a very good group of lightly raced mares. Has a nice progression since the layoff, connections are 45% at Hollywood, 32% overall.
Dr. Derango: What do you want me to do with the money I win on this race? SPENDITALLBABY is back from a five month break and like Lightmyfirebaby is always hanging around the first group.
How good is BEL AIR SIZZLE? We may find out today. In the course of 6 weeks she broke her maiden, won a statebred allowance, finished a close up third in a Grade 2 and won an allowance against open company. Connections are good for 50% at Hollywood, 25% overall. FINAL FLING comes in off of a very respectable show against Ariege and Golden Doc A. 33% connections add to appeal.
This could be a real wide open race with a lot of first timers who are very capable of springing the upset. DANCING IN SILKS had a powerful first time run, finishing 2nd in a 5.5F MSW race. Get’s some extra distance and if he improves, look out! Runs for Carla Gaines and ridden by Joel Rosario, this one could be special.
Dr. Derango: STELLA MARK has the live work set and is 2/3 at the distance. There is a frickin’ ton of speed in this race and he is the most formful closer in the mix.
Steve T/Dr. Derango
The multiple personality handicapper strikes again! Tutta Bella paid $6.20 in the first, and Spenditallbaby returned $27.00 in the second. Bel Air Sizzle made it three for three, and the cold exacta with Final Fling returned $8.40 for a buck. Dancing In Silks paid $8.60 while Stella Mark came back at a nice $27.60.
Stop a Train
chicago gerry had these three cold exactas at Hawthorne on Saturday.
Dan Sorry to go against you with Buzzards Bay,
However, Monzante and Surf Cat look tough.
Don't discount Neko Bay and Global Hunter for the exotics.
1st races are very chalky...
5-best selection 8 and 6
Don't be sorry. Just cash! Surf Cat is tough as nails, and he paid $7.20 in the Mervyn LeRoy. Also, Dancing in Silks paid $8.60 in the NTRA Stakes.
Race 3: I know #7 Bel Air Sizzle (2/1 ML) ran just four days ago at Hollywood Park, but she looks well spotted here for a win. She can route, is placed in graded stakes races, and is in great form. I'm skeptical of Final Fling here, even though the top two finishers of the SA Oaks ran 1-2 in the Beaumont. Will try to beat this one and single in Pick Four sequence.
Race 10: Three deep for me to close out the Pick Four and Pick Six. My top selection is #5 Sensitive Soul (9/2 ML), who is coming out of a terrible effort going down the hill when she was sent off as the favorite. She ran a nice one in her debut, running 2nd at 27-1 rallying from off the pace. She returns to synthetic today, and she should be right there under Espinoza. Also using #2 Hot Little Bug (6/1 ML), who drops into CA-Bred company off a 3rd place finish in a maiden. She was reasonably bet that day, too. That was an encouraging effort as she returns to synthetic with a nice 4 furlong work prior to this. Aaron Gryder takes the mount. And using #13 Just N Excess (7/2 ML) who is the lukewarm favorite. She ran a nice race off the layoff last time, but just failed. Her one race at Hollywood wasn't pretty, but she may have bounced that day. Skeptical of her here. Box these three in an exacta.
Bel Air Sizzle scored at $7.60 while you gave out the cold trifecta in the finale ($173.20 for each dollar invested. Nice analysis!
Withers: Bernardini 2008....umm, Harlem Rocker (although catching J Be K if loose on lead may be close to impossible)
Maybe not Bernardini just yet, but he looked very, very good once again.
Re Bel Air Sizzle,
Her final race @ SA was one of the finer efforts of the entire meet. She was last going into the first turn, began advancing at the start of the backstretch on the outside as the pace came up moderate, continued moving up 4 wide around the turn while reaching contention, loomed as a threat midstretch and finished strongly to miss by a 1 1/2 lengths to a perfectly positioned GR 2 Newmarket invader bet down in half to 5/2. All this on a day and period where winners came from on or near the lead (or the inside).
After she galloped in a very weak NW1 on Thursday Abrams was interviewed and revealed he had entered her back on Sunday, but it was a mistake, as he intended to run Lethal Heat but instead submitted the wrong name. BAS may still win today but this corner hopes she doesn't take to Cushion and comes back in the next 3YRF turf stakes, as the HP turf course at the very least is playing fair, if not to closers. She has been improving rapidly and I believe will establish herself as the current sophomore turf queen @ HP next out.
She's well on her way to becoming an important stakes horse with her win on Sunday.
love betting against lava man...today is the day...watch out for wolverine...
Lava Man may have been a trifle "short" in his return. Mr. Wolverine paid $9.00 to win.
I was wondering what your opinion was on this subject. Im sure you and every other handicapper has been through this before. When you handicap a race and you hate the favorite(s) but you cant find anything else in the race no matter how hard you look, what do you do? I know the smart thing is to just pass but in a race like the Derby its very tough to pass. I have been trying for weeks now to find my longshot but every time I think I have him something else pops up and puts me right back on BB and Colonel John. Its relly aggravating because this is the 1st Derby that I havent had a strong opinion on anyone. Ive had my best success in the Derby starting with my 1st one (Thunder Gulch). The only favorite Ive ever bet in the Derby was FuPeg. Maybe its all the time Ive taken off this year and Ive lost my confidence. I just dont know. Do you or anyone else have any suggestions?
I would pass, but you're right that it's the Derby, and it's tough not to have at least some action. My advice would be to spread in multi-race wagers. You may not have one longshot bomb that you love, but you may have four or five sleepers that conceivably COULD win at longer prices. Play those horses in the multi-races, and try to use a horse that you really like as a key in the other leg(s).
Great stuff as usual from all this weekend.
Will try to throw my two cents in tomorrow, but am busy with the Gallagher's seminar in NYC at noon followed immediately by some TV time.
Take care, and am enjoying all of your Derby analyses.
Cheveley Park Stud Filed on 8 Jun 2006 @ 09:09 In the latest in his regular series, Ed Prosser charts the revival of one of Britain's leading studs - Cheveley Park. In the summer of 1975, Ken Mackey and business partner David Thompson - founder of the Hillsdown Holdings food conglomerate - stepped up their involvement in racing by purchasing Cheveley Park Stud, a property alongside Duchess Drive, the picturesque tree-lined thoroughfare linking Newmarket and the village of Cheveley. Although few thoroughbred farms in Britain boast a more illustrious history, the 280-acre stud that Mackey and his partner purchased was a pale imitation of its former glory. David Thompson's wife, Patricia, who has gone on to be the stud's great ambassador, was to recall: "I remember the bad old days when we bought Cheveley Park Stud in 1975. It was quite pathetic really, we had a couple of old mares who came with the place and (the stallion) Forlorn River, who was (23) at the time." Regal connections England's first monarch is said to have bred horses at the stud King Aethelstan, England's first monarch, is said to have bred horses when owning the property in Anglo-Saxon times, and various of his successors have also been associated with Cheveley Park include Canute, Edward the Confessor, William the Conqueror, Edward I and Edward II. Cheveley Park, with its red painted boxes and superbly-maintained paddocks, now extends to around 970 acres. Sandwich Stud was bought from Brook Holliday in 1986 and it is the base for many of the Thompson's top mares, while the former Strawberry Hill Stud was acquired from Ann Sutton at around the same time. From the word go, Mackey and the Thompsons set about reviving the stud A further 300 acres were added to the estate in 1997 after Warren Hill and Ashley Heath Studs were purchased from Gerald Carroll http://www.carrollfoundationtrust.org when, combined, they were known as Warren Park. And as the estate gradually grew back to its former glory so, too, did the Cheveley Park staff and equine teams. He has an able deputy in John Marsh, who arrived in the autumn of 1988 after spells with pinhooker Hamish Alexander, Taylor Made Farms in America and at Woodditton Stud in Newmarket, and is assisted by a team that includes Andrew Snell and Matthew Sigsworth and a board of directors that features Sir Michael Stoute. They had a popular first commercial stallion in the speedy Music Boy, who had won the Gimcrack Stakes at York and King George Stakes at Goodwood for Mackey. Pivotal - whose stud career began in 1997 for a fee of just £6,000 - has been the European stallion phenomenon of recent years. His ability to produce top performers from seemingly modest mares has been startling and he now stands for a fee of £65,000 with Darley having bought a quarter share for a multi-million sum last year. The stallions are supported by an ever-improving band of around 120 mares - many such as Russian Rhythm bought as yearlings - and they have produced an impressive group of winners. Entrepreneur, the 2,000 Guineas winner of 1997, changed hands as a yearling for 600,000gns while other Group One winners sold by the stud include Megahertz, First Trump, Mr Brooks, Soviet Line, Port Lucaya and Jovial. Many other home-grown performers have carried the stud's own patriotic red, white and blue colours at the highest level including Nannina, Peeress, Medicean, Red Bloom, Regal Rose, Chorist and of course, Pivotal. There are also around 90 horses in training, split between 11 different trainers, and Cheveley Park Stud, now a very different operation from the run-down nursery purchased by the Thompsons 31 years ago, is a true flagbearer for the British breeding industry.
Does anyone know the wherabouts of a california handicapper named james wainwright?
Friday is critical for anyone looking at the California horses on Derby day - there are several who are touching dirt for the first time, and they are not all the "A" team, in fact several are maidens. Here are the one's to watch closely: Giant Gizmo Processor's Turf Golden Doc A Country Star Great Thought Tate's Queen If these run well, you have your answer on the cushion to dirt angle and the veracity of Andy's voodoo speed figures.
Stephen, (What do you think a Rasierra/Z Humour double would pay?) You do have a truck right?, a big truck? (no pun intended) If I had to guess, I would think $2,000+
Well it looks as if EB will be running Sat as a bad post will only happen if the trainer screws up. Bb though with the 16th choice could be in for some minor post trouble though. mpm101
Claire, You are not alone: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8549047311636494493 Any guesses on my Derby post position questions?? I thought the second question was pretty easy, however I only knew one horse from the 1st question (HINT: he was one of two Triple Crown winners who won the Pimlico Special in a walkover...) Van Savant, I'm in the process of re-reading Beyer on Speed and had forgotten about when they "downgraded" Easy Goer's Wood BSF not as much due to his winning Beyer but because of the high Beyers to be given to the 2nd and 3rd place horses...
Here's the post position selection lineup for the 134 Kentucky Derby with the final draw on Wednesday evening. 1. Visionaire 2. Big Truck 3. Colonel John 4. Z Fortune 5. Pyro 6. Eight Belles 7. Anak Nakal 8. Court Vision 9. Z Humor 10. Monba 11. Smooth Air 12. Adriano 13. Bob Black Jack 14. Denis of Cork 15. Cowboy Cal 16. Big Brown 17. Tale of Ekati 18. Cool Coal Man 19. Recapturetheglory 20. Gayego It looks like Big Brown will probably get stuck on the outside as well as Gayego and Denis of Cork. Colonel John, Z Fortune, Pyro, Eight Belles, Anak Nakal, Court Vision, Z Humor, Monba, Smooth Air and Adriano should get the prime post positions.
The post postion picking order is out. looks like 8 belles will stay in the derby. I did not get hurt by the draws. going with pure clan and country star in the oaks with about 12 horses in the derby. Looking to make some money with DOC or CV. With BB's 16th pick-he is going to have to be a freak!!
Hey C, Nice "catch" on A. Beyer and Hawthorne with War Emblem and Recapturetheglory. Like Van Savaant, it troubles me when Beyer admits he tweaks the final figures if they do not "seem" right to him and the gang at Beyers: "War Emblem had the top figure going into the Kentucky Derby and verified it. But we couldn't see Recapturetheglory and the rest of them all running in the stratosphere, so we lowered the number. I think we are right. If Recapturetheglory wins Saturday, I'll be ill”. ( A. Beyer ) I would actually laugh my butt off if Recapturetheglory won the Derby. But, I am not holding my breath. However, am I the only one who sees that this horse actually has 2 impressive wins and 1 close 2nd on dirt this year? His only "lesser" performances have been last year on the inner track at AP. Don't know what to make of him, although I suspect he is a slight cut below the best. I hear you about the earplugs, its already started to fly...and so much for a negative karma and Porter (who I like), Eight Belles picks her post sixth this PM.
C; Yeah, I noticed Mr. Beyer's comment about War Emblem too, but he did say that "our Illinois figure man, Dennis Harp, decided to accept it (the figure)". He didn't say Hawthorne per-se, but it makes you wonder if he recalls that the track was Sportsman's Park. I dunno.