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As promised, here are several week's worth of Beyer spreadsheets.
Top 25 Winning Beyers (September 20 - September 26):
Past performances for Birdrun are available at the bottom of thig blog posting.
Top 25 Winning Beyers (September 27 - October 3):
Haynesfield's past performances are available on the bottom of this blog post.
Top 25 Winning Beyers (October 4 - October 10):
Smiling Tiger's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog posting.
Top 25 Winning Beyers (October 11 - October 16):
Serious Attitude's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Back next time with questions, comments, pp requests, and HG pp's.
|Serious Attitude.pdf||56.13 KB|
Will check back in on race day with selection(s) and comments after weather and scratch considerations. Best, Frank W. aka PTWoodman
" Odds doesn't make a horse run better or worse, period " I was taking a look at Singular Vision's PP's that Ron requested. He was a hard Knocker. He raced 68 times counting 8 @ 870yds vs QH's . He won a QH stakes and placed in a QH Gr.III. He won 23 times counting his 2 QH scores. He won 22 of 52 when he was less than 5-1 ,42%. He was 1 of 16 at 5-1 or higher , 6%. He hit the board 75% when he was less than 5-1. He hit the board 31% when 5-1 or higher. He was favored 35 times winning 17 , 48.5%. It appears that at least Singular Vision ran better or worse if his odds were lower or higher. Odds do matter. We can argue how much they matter at any given moment,but arguing that they don't matter is untenable
Mike A, We agree quite a bit really. I'd never try and talk anybody off , but I might inadvertantly talk them into getting shut-out.yadayadayada. LOL.
C, You nailed it Strike rate needs an avg.winning mutual to go with it to be meaningful. There is no sure fire system formula for picking only winners thats for sure. There are systematic methods that will produce profit though. I wouldn't call them the Holy Grail. I think of them more like small gold ,silver and copper mines. Ones where I know the ore is there and at what rate I can expect to extract it. Books, I'm looking at about a thousand books right now. I've got several hundred on shelves in my bedroom. Smarty Jones and me gave about another 750 or so to the thrift store not long ago. We like books. Once when I was watching C-Span , Phylis Schafly was chairing a think tank panel and they were ranking the top 100 most DANGEROUS books. We had 8 out of the top 10 on the shelves in the living room. We were missing " The Communist Manifesto " and Ralph Nader's "Unsafe at any Speed " Nader made the top ten ? Huh ? Any of you evil bloggers ever read it.LOL Later that day we went to the book store and I picked up " The Communist Manifesto" LOL They didn't have the other one. Books aren't Dangerous . The Communist Manifesto is junk but its not Dangerous. I gave it to the thrift store. I've got about 3 shelves of racing books . Handicapping , breeding, history, betting,biography, the spectrum. I wouldn't say any one of them is going to make an individual a winner but pieces and parts of all of them will go a long way towards a better fundamental understanding of the entire picture. I guess what I'm saying is I like books and even if they are no good they still won't make you a loser.
BSB, I have read both The Communist Manifesto and Unsafe at Any Speed. Additionally, in college, I used to try Mao Tse Tung's principles (the non-violent ones) in organizing my roommates to clean our apartment on Friday afternoon before everyone went to Happy Hour. Ultimately I was forced to use ideas set forth in Machiavelli's, The Prince. I would venture a guess that I have read all the dangerous books on Ms. Schlafly's list. Although I no longer pay attention to her antics, she and Betty Friedan were the subjects of my 30 page dissertation needed to graduate with a degree in history......way back in the dark ages. Ron Zuercher, Great commentary on the visual handicapping and especially your break down of the Al Khali race. I agree that NYRA is atrocious. Who cares what the lead pony looks like? Also, some tracks also include sire and dam information which I really enjoy. As far as watching the gallop out and return, I believe the amount of that the viewer receives depends on the day. When there are lots of tracks running, especially on the weekends, the races are not always live or even complete in order to show as much actual racing as possible....at least that is what I see on TVG. I have the Ainslie book as well as numbers 4 and 5 on your list. I think besides you and Jim Tully, there are others here on the blog who really like Ainslie's book. One of Ainslies' contention is that the lead broodmare more times than not, raises the "boss" foal. In some of my reading on "Lookin at Lucky", my MKB horse, I have discovered that his mom is an Alpha. I will be very curious as to how Zenyatta acts when she lets down and relaxes. She is incredibly Alpha at the track, but you never know what will happen as the feed gets less concentrated, exercise and grazing is self regulated and training ends. While racing, I have no doubt that she would not hesitate to decide to take Smith where SHE wants to go. I have also read in many places that John Henry also decided exactly where to place himself and which holes to run through. Since he was such a mean headstrong ol' cuss, that sounds pretty right to me. Eric T, We have had lots of blog discussion about how racing fans and handicappers are "made" by one generation handing down the love of the sport to the next and that it is vital if horse racing is to survive. Unfortunately, some who probably try, just don't get through.... A recent sad example is the split of the partnership between Casner and Trout from Winstar. One man's child had ZERO interest in carrying on in the business, so for estate planning purposes, he got out. (I forgot which man.) This farm has bred and/or owned a KY Derby winner, a Belmont winner and numerous other stakes class horses. They stand TIZNOW, a two time BC Classic winner! What is wrong with that child? How could she not be interested in this incredibly successful enterprise? How did she not catch the "love" of the horses or the sport? Alan Paulson's family is another example. They sold a HOTY because they just couldn't understand how priceless Azeri is. I saw Ladies Secret run through the ring at Keeneland when Issam Fares dispersed his stock. It was really disconcerting......... PGM, I agree with your contention that Quality Road is going to take a ton of dough and finish up the track. He wants no part of the classic distance. Should he win, they will probably find something lots more interesting than cobra venom at the Pletcher barn. Ned Daly, You really are devoted.......as is SR Vegas. She and her husband could get around Chicago better than I could after one week on PT. Reverend Al, Jonathon Sheppard is amazing.....I am happy that Cloudy's Knight ran as long as he did and that careful attention caught the problem before the race and something potentially awful happened. I have been keeping an eye on Twiceonabet........a hard knocking low level claimer from Monmouth. He has looked terrible this summer and yet they keep racing him. Also, in the oblivious relative department, I have a family obligation timed to start 15 minutes before the Breeder's Cup Classic. I have already braced for divorce papers or at least deletion from the Christmas list, as I have stated that I will be approximately one hour late to said event. Mike A, I have been paying attention to your posts and with Vicstu among the missing, we may have to come up with a word other than "Vicstuvian" to describe the length and breadth of your posts. :) P ensign, NO CAPTCHA!
Keeneland – 10/20/10 I had a good enough day last Friday at Hollywood Park and even Charles Town to have plenty of float for today’s card at Kenneland (I’m playing stingy these days to protect my slush for the Breeder’s Cup). Nevertheless, I do like five of the races for this card. Race #4 – INDIAN PEPPER (#4) is listed at 15/1 on the M/L. I don’t believe those odds, but will play him to Win here based on his speed, recent 3 furlong work at Kenneland, and Jockey Borel in the irons. CHANEL (#9) also has some speed, is working nicely, and may get a nice setup from his outside post position. Race #5 – CANADIAN STORM (#8) owns a decent attempt over this strip back in April under allowance conditions. She is also training well over this track, and is worth a shot here. BACKSIDE BLACKIE (#1) has shown some talent on the turf, and a little ability on the Polytrack. RICHWOOD AFFAIR (#11) can make up some ground in the stretch, and could fill out the bottom of exotics. IT TAKES TWO (#9) has a chance to improve in his 2nd start, and may actually have a bit of talent. Race #6 – I really liked the finishing run put in by DECEIVE (#6) last time out at Saratoga on the turf. It signaled to me that there may be hope. PORTEND (#2) also had a nice finish in her last, and the connections are strong here. LADY JADANA (#5) appears to happy in her works and fits nicely with this group. Race #7 – NIKKI’S SANDCASTLE (#4) had a nice race in his last, and if the two turns are agreeable to him, he could win this. TORCELLO (#8) may just improve enough in his second two turn run to figure in this at a price. 8th Race - HOLIDAYSATTHEFARM (#11) has Gomez up, strong trainer percentages, a solid worktab, and tactical speed. What’s not to like? Ummm…his price…oh well… There you have it. Just some nice little action plays for my evening replay watching enjoyment. Good luck to everyone playing today, and please be safe and good in all that you do ☺!
Everyone Profiles on the Juvenile Fillies Divisions are posted at the IM Website and blog. http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/ I've posted one profile here, but there are too many of them to post here. Enjoy! Also - NO chat this Friday or next Friday - Make plans to join the Breeders' Cup Chat on THURSDAY, November 4 at 9:30 PM EST. We'll cover ALL BC races for Friday and Sat. On SAT (11-6) the chat room will be open in the afternoon for those who would like to handicap races live. The last two years we did this a few nice longshots were produced and everyone had a good time. AWESOME FEATHER (Awesome of Course - Precious Feather, by Gone West) Pedigree: Awesome of Course is a fairly obscure Florida-based sire and he won only a couple of minor sprint stakes races. He is a half brother to stakes winners Imperfect World, Monsieur Cat, and the dam of Graded stakes winner Krypton. Awesome Feather's dam Precious Feather was a multiple stakes winner and her second dam Last Feather was a Group 3 winner in France. Third dam Quill was Champion Two Year Old Filly and blue hen. Surface: Awesome Feather is undefeated over fast dirt. She hasn't encountered an off track, but her pedigree indicates that it shouldn't bother her. Outlook: Awesome Feather is undefeated and basically untested. She is only the third filly to sweep the Florida Stallion Stakes series in Florida and has won all of her races by a combined 20 lengths. She's won on the lead, pressing the pace and from off of the pace. The "who did she beat?" question comes into play here, but her winning times are consistent with the rest of this field. Laura CAPTCHA Narges Creates - Don't know about Narges but I've been very busy creating over the last week, lol!
Hats off to Cloudy's Knight, Jonathan Sheppard (as well as his prior trainer Frank Kirby) and owner/breeder Jerrold Schwartz!! The 10yo is finally retired after a flare up of his suspensory injury - unfortunately, there is no HandiGambling for him! Cloudy's Knight was racing well right up until his retirement, including winning last year's Sycamore and an oh-so-close loss in last year's BC Marathon. As a 9yo, Cloudy's Knight was 5-4-1-0, which included a G2 and two G3 wins! And this was after a year layoff and the trainer change to Sheppard. Amazing!! Open attached link to see his past performances, courtesy of DRF Formulator: https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B-jlQp0K9GEvYTYwNmMyZjYtMGYxMS00NzgyLThmMmYtMmQwNGI3ZDE5ZTY2&hl=en In the midst of all the negatives we account every day as horseplayers and horse racing fans, it's nice to see a story like Cloudy's Knight. I wish him well in his retirement!! And thanks again to his connections for a job well done!!
Ron Zuercher, Kerry and I wrote about Seabiscuit in our book. He’s a great example of the importance of knowing the psychology/Emotional Conformation of the horse.
Handigambling 100 exacta 9/2