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Beyer Questions, PP Requests, etc.
Let's get to your questions.
Longshot Dan, could you post the PPs for Rafael's Dancer please ? I believe they can be used as a teaching device for some of the formblogers if my memory is correct. Thanks and have a good weekend of racing. My captcha is FIRST BEENTLY. Now I have to scan entries worldwide to see if BEENTLY is running somewhere.
The past performances for Rafael's Dancer are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Who is Leon Bluisewicz? He spends $260,000 on Admiral Alex and then proclaims his confidence by saying he took a Maiden to become a Grade One winner back in 1981.
Wow. Could you publish his record over the last five years? Many thanks. (I'll have a small win saver on him just in case).
A question on Formulator-does it have information on First Time Starter performances by Sire? You can obviously tell by my question that I don't subscribe to it, but I'm sure thinking about it. If it doesn't have such data, do you know of any service that would have that particular database(free or not doesn't matter)? Thank you in advance
Finally: please tell the IT people that the Debut Reports (Handicapping Tab, then Reports) doesn't work at all.
Here's a nice story by Andy Beyer:
Here's the trainer profile from Breeders' Cup:
Here's his record since 1976 (according to DRF Statistics):
1976: 7-48 (14%)
1977: 8-46 (17%)
1978: 9-52 (17%)
1979: 18-56 (32%)
1980: 16-75 (21%)
1981: 7-39 (17%)
1982: 6-53 (11%)
1983: 4-49 (8%)
1984: No stats available
1985: 25-143 (17%)
1986: 6-56 (10%)
1987: 15-92 (16%)
1988: 16-70 (22%)
1989: 2-47 (4%)
1990: 4-38 (10%)
1991: 8-79 (10%)
1992: 3-76 (3%)
1993: 4-44 (9%, $1.22 ROI)
1994: 3-32 (9%, $0.44 ROI)
1995: 6-36 (16%, $1.89 ROI)
1996: 1-9 (11%, $0.58 ROI)
1997: 1-10 (10%, $2.56 ROI)
1998: 3-5 (60%, $2.92 ROI)
2000-2008: No stats available
2009: 2-9 (22%, 2.87 ROI)
2010: 1-2 (50%, $3.70 ROI)
As for Formulator, it has statistics on the dam and her progeny, but not the sire. An under-utilized resource on drf.com is the "Debut Reports" feature. Here, we have yearly totals for sires, broodmare sires and trainers of debut runners since 2007.
Until the "Debut Reports" link is fixed, try this as an alternative. Under "Handicapping," click on "DRF Plus," then "Sample Reports and More Information," and then the PDF files are there.
HRTV had this interesting show on Swale tonight and it made me want to ask what do you think happened to this horse? Was this horse insured for dozens of millions of dollars or was it a total loss for Claiborne when he died? Either way what a shame for the sport to lose such a classy horse. For someone not paying attention to horse races at the time Swale ran(or Ruffian for that matter) I can understand why most long term racing aficionados weren't as shocked as the general public when Barbaro ran into his bad luck. Speaking of which, how would you compare the racing careers of these two tragic heroes of the sport, and could you provide PPs for Swale and Barbaro?
Here is a wonderful article on Swale from New York Magazine (August 6, 1984):
The article mentions that Swale was insured for $15 million dollars.
The lifetime past performances for both Swale and Barbaro are available at the bottom of this blog posting.
I have not seen any published works for Rule since he was taken out of consideration for the Derby. Any idea if he is stlll in training?
Haven't heard of a retirement and the WinStar website still lists him as part of their "Stable Roster." He hasn't worked since before the Derby, however.
Any word on what the Equibase/Form track designation will be for Oak Tree at Hollywood Park? How do track designations work? Are they required to be 3 or less characters?
We're not sure yet how the track designation is going to go. It may either stay as HOL or it could change to OTH.
Dan, Have the two jockeys (Vaz & I think Santos) that slugged each other during a race at Philly ever returned to riding? Or are they still suspended?Also can I fet the pp's for distance specialist Passing Ships.
Vaz returned to riding at Philadelphia Park on August 5. Ademar Santos has been riding regularly since April and is currently based at Suffolk Downs.
The past performances for Passing Ships are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Assuming we agree that the Classic distance against 10 to 13 of the top Grade I horses in the world is outside of Rachel Alexandra's scope...Do you think the BC Dirt Mile or Ladies' Classic would be a more prestigious spot for Rachel Alexandra to run in this year? I know the Dirt Mile is a relatively new race but the chance to face males on Championship Saturday has some charm to it in my opinion
I would think the Ladies' Classic would be the choice over the Dirt Mile, but after the loss on Sunday, any speculation on where (or if) Rachel will run next is a reach.
met you at arlington this summer, enjoy your blogs and also purchased your dvd
can you tell me i've been looking for a rusty arnold horse but haven't seen or heard anything about him....he's a 4 yr. old named reb
He hasn't worked this year, but I haven't heard of any retirement or stud plans. I'll let you know more if I find out anything.
Hi Dan, enjoy your blog very much..
If possible, could you please post the PPs for some of these old Phipps/McGaughey runners? Dispute, Educated Risk, My Flag and Miner's Mark
Oh What A Dance
The past performances that you requested are available at the bottom of the blog post.
BTW, I'm wondering if you have PP histories for two somewhat obscure handicap runners from the 80's and 90's. If possible I'd like pp's for Beau Genius and Precocity (II).
Beau Genius and Precocity are available at the bottom of the blog post.
Can you post the total number of 100, 110 and 120 Beyers awarded for 2003-2006 (pre synthetic) and from 2007-2010 for the following tracks:
Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga
Santa Anita, Del Mar, Hollywood
I think people will quickly see what I am talking about. Any statistics pro would need 2 parsecs to tell you that the delta between these two periods is an absolute statistical impossibility!
333 Beyers of 100 or greater; 38 at 110 or greater; 2 at 120 or greater
320 Beyers of 100 or greater; 9 at 110 or greater; none at 120 or greater
420 Beyers at 100 or greater; 78 at 110 or greater; 3 at 120 or greater
410 Beyers at 100 or greater; 28 at 110 or greater; none at 120 or greater
214 Beyers at 100 or greater; 38 at 110 or greater; 3 at 120 or greater
167 Beyers at 100 or greater; 17 at 110 or greater; 2 at 120 or greater
Santa Anita (2003-2006):
429 Beyers at 100 or greater; 42 at 110 or greater; 1 at 120 or greater
Santa Anita (2007-2010):
162 Beyers at 100 or greater; 4 at 110 or greater; 0 at 120 or greater
Del Mar (2003-2006):
143 Beyers at 100 or greater; 18 at 110 or greater; 1 at 120 or greater
Del Mar (2007-2010):
135 Beyers at 100 or greater; 2 at 110 or greater; 0 at 120 or greater
277 Beyers at 100 or greater; 37 at 110 or greater; 1 at 120 or greater
110 Beyers at 100 or greater; 1 at 110 or greater; 0 at 120 or greater
Dan what was Ben's Cat beyer in the Mr. Diz stakes at Laurel, shouldn't he be on the list?
Ben's Cat received an 87 Beyer.
Please explain the following. In the Travers, Afleet Express runs 10 furlongs over the dirt at Saratoga in 2:03.28, and gets 105 Beyer Speed Figure. In the Pacific Classic, Richard’s Kid runs 10 furlongs over the polytrack at Del Mar in 2:03.27, and gets a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. So Richard’s Kid ran a faster final time over an inherently slower surface, yet according to Beyer was 7 lengths worse than Afleet Express? Please explain
I think Alan and others have explained the situation very well so I'll refer you to their comments.
PGM, Steve Taylor, chicago gerry, and others have done such a wonderful job with the FormBlog convention. I'm really looking forward to being at Arlington on September 11 and 12. I can't wait to meet all of the FormBloggers and maybe one of us will win the Arlington Handicapping Contest on Saturday.
Reservations will close for the FormBlog Convention at midnight CST on Thursday, Sept 2nd.,
Questions or reservations can be sent to email@example.com. Fun, food, friends, a winner's circle presentation, free reserved seating, and, hopefully, some winning tickets!
Full information, including a timetable, is at http://ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/TC2010.html
Free admission if you reserve!
Free programs to all attendees!
Talk to you soon,
|Rafael's Dancer.pdf||67.67 KB|
|Passing Ships.pdf||48.4 KB|
|Handicap Horses.pdf||69.62 KB|
Van Savant I know you meant Hamish Hy as opposed to Hamish Way and also I hope you meant #4 as opposed to #7. In any case, I hope you got something down on him in the 7th at Del Mar. Nice pick by you and Dr Derango at 31 to 1 ! I just couldn't see him. I really liked Distorted Economy and of course he got third missing the win by 2 necks. Keep up the good work. Dick W
ANNIE , thanks for the forgivness . I certainly need it !! good luck today Kid.
Van Savant , Congrats on the $60 horse, nice pop! Those kind do make the take easier to swallow ( for the moment). You're right about my point of view being tendentious, thats the point of making the point (say what). I'm good enough, but am not sure how I'm going to become 3% better than I already am. That garlic herb roasted chicken sounds delicious . Monba must be reading my mind as she just began to cackle like a banshee !!! Continued good luck to you and I hope you cracked a smile. You're a good guy. Dizzy , Niether RA or Big Z have any idea what a trophy is. Thank you for considering my verse brilliant. I thought it was only so-so. Have a good day today.
Sirsyfan Thanks for the heads up......does this mean that I really like War Fronts and not War Chants.....no, it means I leaped before I looked. Good pick with Soldat. Mike A
SirsyFan, Before I crawl back into my hole from embarrassment, let me thank you for setting me right! I'm really not as ignorant as my post made me seem. I just had a major brain cramp! Apologies to everyone!
HAIMISH HY (#4) was a soothing salve tonight for my Wednesday blunder. I only stuck $5 on him tonight, but 31/1 always feels good (and I don't care that I paid the "vig"). Harrumph!!!
blackseabass; I understand why you stated what you did about everytime you place a wager you are paying the takeout. You never again need to make that point with me, because I know why you made it, and where you are going with it. Your point (and position) is misleading, and here is why: You can assert that my $2 Win bet is really a $1.85 Win bet, and that I have “paid” the takeout upfront. But just because that is your assertion doesn’t make it true. The fact is that my $2 wager cost me $2. To claim that my $1.85 wager costs me $2 denies the fact that odds play an integral role in my wagering. And because the odds do play a large part, the takeout ONLY becomes relevant to me when I WIN. Your logic here is tendentious, and designed to lead the leader toward your way of thinking. Now I understand and agree with you as it concerns the long-term affects of the takeout over time, and you are correct in your thinking here. But my friend…and this important to understand here…if you are good enough, and disciplined enough in the pursuit of this very difficult craft, the takeout should be the least of YOUR worries. The “Industry” is a different animal, and I agree with you about how an increase in the take weakens bettors in the aggregate, and can weaken bettors in general. But it is still a red-herring, and you my good fish-friend, are falling hook-line-and-sinker for it. Don’t do it. By the way…say hello to my feathery-friend Monba. He is probably my 2nd favorite chicken (next to my Herb-Garlic-Roasted Chicken). (Sorry, friend, I couldn’t hep-mysef!!!)
blackseabass It's not polite to kick a Lady when she is down. But I forgive you :)
Cayman Thank you for all you have done for everyone on the Blog. You made a great committment from which everyone on the Blog benefitted. I'll have good thoughts for you to get through whatever it is you must do.
Dick W; Thanks for the call-out, and the points of correction. I even made my post in Word so that I could preview it better before posting. I don't know what I was thinking there...