05/14/2014 6:02PM

Bernier: 4 Formulator Facts for Thursday at Pimlico

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Guest handicapper Matt Bernier uses DRF Formulator to take a closer look at Thursday’s Pimlico card.

Race 1

Trainer Dane Kobiskie’s stats with adding blinkers may require a rethink among those considering Mighty Oak (6-1 ML) for the win slot.

Formulator Fact: Kobiskie is 0 for 7 the past five years with second-time starters sporting blinkers for the first time. However, it is worth noting that of those seven different runners, four ended up in the money and another finished a closing fourth.

Race 4

The debut of Rule Five (20-1 ML) was anything but stellar, but there is room for optimism based on his pedigree.

Formulator Fact: Sire Smoke Glacken’s progeny have won dirt sprints as 2-year-olds at a 23 percent clip (57 for 252) over the past five years. On the bottom side, his dam, R Lady Deputy, has produced a three-time winner on dirt (Stella Grey).

Max Crown (6-1 ML) has a relative on the bottom half of his pedigree that suggests precociousness may be in his blood.

Formulator Fact: Max Crown’s dam, Bedtime for Jr., has produced a half-brother named Giant Patriot who won on dirt as a 2-year-old. As he is Bedtime for Jr.’s only other foal to race, it is within reason to think that this 2-year-old son of Cosa Vera may be ready to run at first asking.

Race 5

There may be some hidden value with Fleet Gold Digger (8-1 ML) based on a specific move from trainer Jessica Campitelli.

Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Campitelli is 2 for 5 ($11.40 ROI) with horses that are making their second starts off a layoff and transitioning from dirt to turf. The 80 percent (4 for 5) in-the-money strike rate with horses that are all reasonable prices makes this son of Not for Love an intriguing entrant to consider when creating exotic wagers.

Matt Bernier is a 24-year-old handicapper and cast member of the reality-show “Horseplayers” that airs on the Esquire Network. Matt won the very first handicapping tournament he entered in October 2012 and hasn't looked back since. In 2013, he was one of the youngest qualifiers at the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas.