06/04/2010 8:58PM

Belmont Eve 2010


Ice Box is the equivalent of the 5-2 favorite in the Brooklyn/Belmont daily-double willpays, where the betting virtually mirrored Eric Donovan's morning line for the 142nd Belmont Stakes:

Just as Donovan predicted, the field of 12 has three distinct tiers: there are three clear favorites at 5-1 or less (Ice Box, First Dude and Fly Down); the next six are close together in the 10-1 to 15-1 range (Uptowncharlybrown, Make Music For Me, Interactif, Drosselmeyer, Game On Dude and Stately Victor); and the three clear outsiders at over 20-1 are Stay Put, Spangled Star and Dave in Dixie.

Keep an eye on the weather. The forecast earlier in the week was for storms late Thursday and Friday with clearing by Saturday, but with each passing day the storm forecasts were pushed farther back. As I write this Friday evening at sunset five miles from the track, it's just now beginning to rain, and the predictions now call for "isolated" and "scattered" thunderstorms throughout tomorrow, with a 30-to-40 percent chance of rain every hour and temperatures in the 80's.

I was out at Belmont for a couple of hours today on a sunny and steamy afternoon. The attendance was 4,423, which at least was a 50 percent gain over last Friday's 2,913, and all sources handle was a healthy $10.7 million (vs. $8.5 million a week ago.) despite running against Monmouth ($5.4 million), which was closed last Friday. Alcomo (BRZ) rallied to win by a nose to win the Brooklyn in 2:30.07 over 18-1 Gabriel Hill, who led until the final strides while defining "one-paced": Gabriel Hill ran his first six furlongs in 1:15.02 and the last six furlongs in 1:15.06. If they let First Dude loose through 1:15.02 tomorrow, the race could be over at the halfway point.

Nobody picked six for the second straight day, so there's a $129k carryover into tomorrow, where the pool is guaranteed at $1 million.

Time to tighten the screws on tomorrow's handicapping. I'll post my pre-scratch pick-4/pick-6 thoughts in the morning before leaving for the track and abandon you all for the day. We'll commiserate back here on Sunday.

tom gregory More than 1 year ago
prediction andy beyer will make fly down his choice in the belmont. [Actually, he picked First Dude. -SC]
ei More than 1 year ago
I was watching the DD will pays very closely and I believe the best gauge of presumed odds is to use the favorite. In the case the of the Brooklyn there wasn't a clear cut favorite so I was tracking the three horses taking the most money which were the 3-4-5. In ALL three cases the will pay odds showed Ice Box the favorite, Fly Down the 2nd choice and First Dude the 3rd choice. Approximate odds were Ice Box 5/2; Fly Down 7/2 and First Dude 5-1. We'll have to see how it all shakes out tomorrow.
bobm toga More than 1 year ago
picks for the stakes races.. race 6. discreetly mine (5-2) race 7. my princess jess (4-1) race 8. strasbourg (20-1) race 9. much rejoicing (10-1) race 10.just as well (10-1) race 11.game on dude (10-1) if i can possibly hit 2 of the 4 horses i like in the above choices, i have a shot for a monster pk-4. considering minimum price is 10-1 on all selections in the pick 4.. good luck to all..
jimthepimp More than 1 year ago
First Dude would be a gift at 9/2 but he wont stay that way. The only problem is that he nor the Zito couple will probably not win this race. It should pay nicely to use both First Dude and Ice Box underneith the winner. The winner will be either Interactif or the Victer. Ghostzapper loved Belmont Race track and Interactif put himself in the race by training so well. Good Luck to all and just a note of caution I have lost the first two legs of this crown. If we get the slow pace; these are all too close so a longshot will hit the wire first.
Allen Klayman More than 1 year ago
I came into town for the Belmont on Wednesday. I went to play the Monmouth Pick 5 at the track yesterday only to find out that NYRA makes the bet a $1 minimum on track. Can anyone explain that logic to me? Unbeliveable!
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
Rich (from the last blog): The reason I brought up 15 races on Belmont Day (and three after the Belmont) is simple: Right now, outside of Saratoga, the only day people who don't follow the sport regularly really care about New York racing is Belmont Stakes day. Until we can get people to start truly caring about days aside from the Triple Crown (and Kentucky Oaks) days, the sport needs to take advantage of the people when they are willing to actually show up. For many of them, it's a day-long party even though for most of us more serious handicappers, it can be a chore (something I know not only from having been at every Belmont from 1989-2000 and 2002-'05, but also having been several editions of The Hambletonian, which is usually a 15-race card at The Meadowlands that is a six and a half to seven hour experience). That's also why I've been gung ho about some of my other ideas for the sport that include most notably the Saturday after The Belmont Stakes (or second Saturday if the Saturday immediately after is the week of the US Open Golf Championships) creating a made-for-TV nine-stakes program between Churchill Downs and Hollywood Park that would air in Saturday night prime time (8:00-11:00 PM ET/5:00-8:00 PM PT) with the two tracks alternating stakes, headlined by the Charles Wittingham at Hollywood and Stephen Foster at Churchill with all kinds of special wagers as part of such a made-for-TV venture, as it's the kind of night that can show people there is more to the sport outside the Triple Crown days (and with Saturday night TV ratings, especially in the summer a joke, I could see NBC actually going for such an event as it's something NBC can actually promote on a Saturday night in the summer). Do need to correct a couple of things from my last post: I would have first post for a 15-race Belmont card at 11:00 AM ET and the last race around 8:20. The three races after the Belmont (on a 15-race card as I would do it) would be if the TC is on the line, it would allow for more time for people to leave in a more steady flow as opposed to all at once. Regardless, given how big the Triple Crown days have become, I don't see any of those days being cut back by number of races.
SamG More than 1 year ago
The dang pool league I play in schedules a tournament this day every year so once again I'll be trying to catch the race in the hotel bar.Being the gambler I am I want to bet but it seems unwise with the uncertain condition of the track.I've been waiting for Gato Go Win to get back on dirt for over a year but he looks overmatched and I know nothing about the trainer.I'd have to make Fantasy Free at least a C.Good luck to you Steve and the rest.It looks like a nice card after the first few and a great betting card.
dogs up More than 1 year ago
Woodford Reserve Manhattan H. (G1)1 1/4 Miles (Inner turf) 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes Purse: $400,000 Simply state, in the Manhattan handicap; Gio Ponte and other great turf horses will be dethrowned from their prominence by Pickney Hill. This should be a near record time for the event as well.
HZ Hackenbush More than 1 year ago
Anything can happen in any race but how could one logically pass up 9-2 on First Dude? You can make a lot of money in this game betting presumed lone speed at 9-2, especially when the horse might be able to win even without the lead.
dan c More than 1 year ago
I will do "Much Rejoicing" tomorrow as the winner of the hottest race of the spring with several next out winners this female Monster will go wire to wire in the Acorn. And boys get ready for Barker to drop a bomb early with 2 15-1 shots in the 2nd and 3rd. They are both alive trust me I am friends with the owners.