06/09/2012 8:55AM

Belmont Day at Belmont Park

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Good morning from Belmont Park on a Belmont Stakes Day that doesn’t have anywhere near the buzz it would have had if I’ll Have Another was going in the big race. But I’ll Have Another will still be on the track here today, leading the post parade for the Belmont. I understand that all concerned parties are on board with this, and on one level I recognize that it is nice that fans will have the opportunity to show I’ll Have Another some love. Still, a lot of casual fans will understandably wonder how a horse not well enough to compete is well enough to lead a post parade. I have to admit that I find this to be a bit weird.

In the “when it rains, it pours” department, the weather forecast here has gone steadily downhill over the last 24 hours and there is now almost an even chance of what are being called “strong, gusty thunderstorms” in the area late in the afternoon. It’s a grey and humid morning here right now. Looking on the bright side, however, the weather forecasters have been off the mark most of the week with their threats of afternoon storms, so maybe they’ll be wrong one more time.

Getting to Belmont was a chore for some this morning. The Cross Island Parkaway (the main highway adjacent to the track) heading south was a parking lot, not because of track traffic, but because of an accident. And gate 5 into the track, a main entrance off Hempstead Turnpike, was allowing only one lane of traffic in, creating a traffic jam all of its own.

But hey, despite the bad stuff, it’s still Belmont Day. I’ll check in periodically throughout the day with thoughts on the proceedings.

10:18 - The NYRA just issued a release stating that I'll Have Another will not lead the post parade for the Belmont and will instead have a public retirement ceremony in the winner's circle between the Manhattan and the Belmont. Good call.

12:51 - With three races in the books, the last two on dirt, there doesn't appear to be an overt bias on the main track. However, all meet long at Belmont, it has clearly been preferable to be close early on the dirt, and I think that is still the case today.

After watching Tiz Yankee give away another race in the second, it looks like he'll hang to just about any horse. Eventually, Tiz Yankee will find a field that even he can't hang to and he'll probably win by 15 lengths. Until then, he's a bet against.

2:42- It was a pleasure to watch Joel Rosario's winning ride on Teeth of the Dog in the Easy Goer. After breaking with the leaders, Rosiario confidently allowed Teeth of the Dog to drop toward the back of the pack as the front runners put up a too-fast first quarter of 22.88. Before a half in 46.16, Rosario had Teeth of the Dog back in striking distance on the inside (nothing wrong with the rail here). He waited paitiently behind horses late on the far turn for a hole to open and when it did between horses in upper stretch, race over.

3:03 - Current win odds for the Belmont Stakes have Union Rags favored over Dullahan, 5-2 to 3-1. I thought it would go the other way and still might, but that's okay. Although there is still lots of time for them to blow out, what's crazy is Five Sixteen currently is 16-1 and Guyana Star Dweej is 21-1. It's nuts that at any point of the betting their prices were this low. At least you could rationalize the play on Five Sixteen as money for his rider, Rosie Napravnik. But Guyana Star Dweej?

Ridiculously low prices on horses who should be 60-1 to 70-1 is not a new phenomenon in Triple Crown races. Some think this this started after Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1. Whatever the reason, there must be a way to capitalize when there are drastic underlays such as this.

3:34 - Caixa Eletronica is as professional as race horses get. The 7-year-old won the three-turn, Grade 2 Charles Town Classic two starts ago, and he won the six furlong True North here with a wild late rally. As Caixa Eletronica proved, you can win from well back on this track if the early fractions are hot enough, and they were a sizzling 21.80 and 44.58 in this dash.

Of course, appreciation for Caixa Eletronica is tempered by concern for Giant Ryan, the Grade 1 Vosburgh winner who broke down in the stretch of the True North. Latest word is he was being evaluated in his stall, but his injury appeared to be very serious.

4:10 - You could have wondered what trainer Dale Romans was thinking when he scratched Tapitsfly out of an easy spot last week, the Mint Julep at Churchill Downs, to run in the Just a Game here. I get that the Just a Game is a Grade 1, and that was a big lure. Then again, he would also have to run against Winter Memories and Hungry Island here, and that's no picnic. But Romans sure knew what he was doing. Tapitsfly ran the best race of her life and scored decisively after setting a solid fractions. Winter Memories got plenty of pace to set up her late run thanks to Tapitsfly, and had her shot at the winner in the stretch, but had no excuse. It seems she still can look like a very special horse one day, and kind of average on another. Hungry Island also had no excuse.

4:59 - Pretty much a three-speed number as Trinniberg, Currency Swap and Il Villano run one-two-three in the Woody Stephens. Props to Trinniberg for rebounding out of a start in the Kentucky Derby that could have fried him for a long time. And while Trinniberg might be faster early than I give him credit for, I still want to see what he does when he gets hooked early by a real speed horse. It didn't happen when he won the Swale and Bay Shore in his first two starts this year, and it didn't really happen in the Stephens, either.

5:48 - The male turf division is really lacking so far this year as evidenced by the fact that Papaw Bodie, claimed five starts back for $50,000 and whose big success since was in a Grade 3 event at Sam Houston, lost the Grade 1 Manhattan by the bob of a nose. That said, the horse who edged Papaw Bodie, Desert Blanc, deserves some credit if for nothing else than he successfully rallied into a slow pace. The slow pace didn't help Omayad, the Chilean superstar by way of California, but he was totally empty after making a very brief run on the far turn.

6:52 - Even without I'll Have Another, this Belmont Stakes turned out to be a very entertaining race, with Union Rags, finally getting a clean trip and responding to the jockey change to John Velazquez, wearing down the game pacesetter Paynter to win by a neck after a thrilling stretch battle.

I will admit my doubts about Union Rags getting a distance were unfounded. He got the 12 furlongs Saturday better than anyone, albeit narrowly. And I can empathize with owner Ahmed Zayat and trainer Bob Baffert, and understand if they would want to pull their hair out after their Paynter fell just short, completing a ridiculous Triple Crown for them. Many folks are drawing comparisons between Paynter's Belmont effort and Bodemeister getting nailed in the Preakness after setting the pace, but don't forget that Bodemeister turned in one of the best runner up performances ever in the Kentucky Derby after setting one of the fastest paces in that storied event's history.

Yes, the Belmont was great theater, but was it a quality race? The final time was a pedestrian 2:30.42. How strongly a run race could it have been when Atigun, who paired up career-best Beyers of 89 in his last two starts, was beaten a total of two lengths finishing third.

All of this, of course, begs the question of how a healthy I'll Have Another would have done in this Belmont. It's really a fruitless, pointless exercise speculating about it, because while we know how I'll Have Another handled the big crowd, and the paddock, and the racing surface at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby, and at Pimlico in the Preakness, who knows if he would have handled all of those things as well at Belmont Park. Who knows what he had left in the tank after the first two legs of the Triple Crown? What does it really matter? It's fantasy. Would've. Could've. Should've.

But since everyone else is or soon will be playing along, what the heck, here's my guess on how I'll Have Another would have done in this Belmont: He would have won by open lengths, and that's from someone who picked Paynter before he was scratched.

Thanks for reading today.

Troponin More than 1 year ago
Mike, why are you such a non-believer in Trinniberg? He earned a 106 Beyer in the Woody Stephens. Currency Swap tried to hook up with him but he couldn't. He's currently considered the best 3 yr. old sprinter in the country. When will you become a believer? Maybe the King's Bishop in Saratoga?
Thomas Mcdonough More than 1 year ago
First, who were the clowns operating the infield totes? In the hour before the Belmont, the totes showed the payouts from the 10th race for 30 minutes, and then the estimated exactas and doubles for the next thirty minutes. At no time were the payouts for the Pick 3 and Pick 4 shown. Second, there were certain banks of clerks who could take a 50 cent wager on Pick 4's and other banks that could not-what is that all about?? Finally, the traffic was indescribable. I have been to major sporting events all over the world, and I have never seen anything that comes close to the SNAFU trying to exit Belmont Park. Unfortunately, this is not an isolated occurrence-it is every year at the Belmont-it really is sufficiently frustrating to keep people from attending.
Michael Podd More than 1 year ago
All true. Churchill and Pimlico are well organized with regard to traffic and moving people along. Belmont is a joke. And the size of the TV screens on the infield at Belmont? What is going on? I felt like I was in the late 1980s on Saturday. The track needs a cash infusion badly. The consession employees were great I'll say.
Perl More than 1 year ago
Well, Winter Memories didn't win, but I can tell you she sure looked like a special horse in the paddock. What a physical specimen she is. And a decent second too, to a good winner who ran huge (132 and change).
Michael Podd More than 1 year ago
Speed held on the Widener all day. Crazy fast.
Joseph Murphy More than 1 year ago
bum pick of the day-hierro-still running-luv ya mike but that one hurt
Stuart More than 1 year ago
Hierro at 7f is just crazy. This is a big, long striding son of Hard Spun that actually nailed Paynter at 1 mile in the DT. He wants more ground, IMO, not less. Or maybe he will be better on turf. Lots of turfers can run well on the dirt at CD. Ask Paddy O Prado and Dullahan.
Steve Wilson More than 1 year ago
Hi Mike - hope you had a fun, profitable day. Now, at least for a while, can we PLEASE stop talking about Dullahan?
Stuart More than 1 year ago
So, the final two furlongs in the Kentucky Derby were run in 26.64 seconds, yet the final 2 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes which were 2 furlongs FURTHER were run in 26.03 seconds. Yet, IHA would have mowed this field down because they were crawling hgome and the time was slow. Gotcha.
pba1817 More than 1 year ago
You have no concept of pace, distance, and field size. Look a little harder into the numbers... Derby after 1 mile was ran at 1:35.19, after a mile in Belmont 1:38.89, and equivalent of roughly 20 lengths. The final 2f being ran with only a difference3/5 of a second equates to making up 3 lengths... Even though they are not comparable, if I'll Have Another ran a similar race in the Belmont as he did in the Derby or Preakness, he would have won by 10+ lengths.
Stuart More than 1 year ago
You are the one who has no clue. The Belmont Stakes is 12f, not 10f. You are using supposition to posit that IHA would have run the final 2 furlongs in the Belmont Stakes the same as he ran the Derby. If IHA ran the mile in 1:35 and change, he would have hit a wall and backed up big time and been well beaten at 12f. If IHA WAS running in the Belmont Stakes, he would have had to sit behind the same moderate pace as UR did. And you cannot move until the eighth pole. UR ran his final 2 furlongs in 25.4. At 12f, maybe IHA does better, maybe not. We have no clue. We do know UR has run up on very fast fractions and won 2 sprint races. We do not know if IHA could get 12f or not. Many other T/C candidates could not. I just wish he would have won.
Stuart More than 1 year ago
"Even though they are not comparable, if I'll Have Another ran a similar race in the Belmont as he did in the Derby or Preakness, he would have won by 10+ lengths." He wouldn't have run a similar race. The Belmont is run at a slower pace, and it is 2 furlongs longer. You cannot make the moves IHA made on the second turn in the Belmont Stakes (ask Calvin Borel on MTB). So, since they are not comparable, why are you trying to compare them? Using that logic, too bad Baffert did not run Bode, because he would have won by 10 lengths, right? Give me a break.
Bsb Jaws More than 1 year ago
Yes, Bode or Creative Cause would have won by open lengths too ! Its not logical to speculate that IHA would have won handily,buttZ... it is logical to say Smarty Jones would have beat Birdstone 99 of 100 at 10f or less ? Calling Birdstone (a gr I winner at 8,10 &12 furlongs) a plodder doesn't make it so. Birdstone is 5 times the racehorse Union Rags is & he'll be 50 times the sire. You're cracking me up Vicstu :-) You caught the winner, congrats, buttZ... lets not build him up to being a real race horse. He ran slow beating an allowance field . I meant to say he ran sloooooooooow while all out to beat an allowance field.LOL. Thats a fact Vicstu not conjecture. When you look up Plodder in the dictionary it has a picture of Union Rags & Paynter
Jordan More than 1 year ago
Pace. The pace of the Derby was about 4 seconds, or 20 lengths faster than the Belmont. Got that?
Stuart More than 1 year ago
And your point is what? The Derby is to 10f. The Belmont Stakes is two furlongs longer. Unless Big Red is running, If you hit the quarter pole at 2:00 and change you will not finish in the money at the Belmont Stakes/ You are not honestly comparing the pace to the Derby to the pace at the Belmont, are you? UR had to sit behind a slow pace in the Belmont. You cannot take Bode's pace in the Derby and compare it to Paynter's here. Apples to oranges.
Stuart More than 1 year ago
BTW, my comment above was supposed to have ended with a question mark. I was not saying IHA another would have mowed this field down. I was trying to question Mike's comment that he would have.
Stuart More than 1 year ago
Or maybe, if Union Rags got a clean trip in the Derby he could have won the Derby over the then 15-1 IHA (who was coming off a 90 something SA Derby) and Bode. They way Beyer speed figures are calculated in a 12 f race is laughable. There is simply no floor or medium to gauge it with at this distance. BTW, the race was only as slow as Paynter was allowed to set the pace at. Perhaps the presence of IHA healthy would have sped things up a bit, but that would have favored a horse like UR even more, who finished the Derby stronger than anyone after that terrible start. And, we have no way of knowing if IHA would have won at 12f or even gotten 12f. After all, Birdstone was not in the same zip code as Smarty Jones at 10f and under...They could have raced 100 times at 10f and under I Smarty would have won 99 times...he was much the better horse. However, in the Belmont, strange things happen. So, IHA winning by open lengths is sheer conjecture and relies on his Preakness form and not what his form would have been at Belmont Park. One thing is for sure, if IHA had sat off of 2:04 and change he wouldn't have come home much faster than 26 seconds. His Derby final two furlongs were not that much faster than that...
pba1817 More than 1 year ago
Here is a handicapping tip that will make you $$$. Add 7-10points to every horse coming off of Santa Anita's main track. The beyer figures have been rated way low since the re-install of the dirt. Horses that leave SA and are running huge just about everywhere they go. Also, on the same note, Oaklawn Park/Gulfstream/Saratoga are always inflated, so many of those horses are play against when moving to another track.
Chris Lowe More than 1 year ago
Birdstone threw a shoe in the KD. Just sayin...
Stuart More than 1 year ago
He wouldn't have caught Smarty Jones at 10f regardless. Too much of a plodder. Now, at 12f, a rested plodder like Birdstone was in his element.
Jordan More than 1 year ago
That went slow early and late. Slow early AND late. After such a slow early pace they should have flown late. But they went 25 and 3 and then 26 for the final two quarters. I'll Have Another ran his final quarter in the Derby in 25 seconds because he was stalking a 109 and change pace. Then, in the Preakness, when Bode did set a slower pace, both he and I'll Have Another flew home. I agree we cannot project i'll have Another's Preakness form onto the Belmont, but if we did he wouldn't have run the final half in 51 and 3.
Stuart More than 1 year ago
He would of if he was sitting off of Paynter. Now, if you are arguing he should and could have wired the Belmont field, I might buy into that. I think that was the only way he was winning the T/C...wire to wire in the Belmont Stakes. Just like Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. Its a galloper's race. Which is why Paynter almost stole it.
Stuart More than 1 year ago
Name the last horse to win the Triple Crown (and the year) that did not win the Belmont Stakes being 1st at every call (wire to wire)? He is a clue: It has been well over 60 years!
Yuwipi More than 1 year ago
Geez, Mike. What's a commenter to do when he agrees with every observation in a column except the crystal ball Belmont? On that one who knows. Really enjoyed seeing Dave Liftin on the embedded video. His observations are always appreciated. Thanks to yourself and all the DRF people for such great Triple Crown coverage.
Highlander92 More than 1 year ago
You are absolutely right Mike, open lengths. You are being polite and respectful she you say a pedestrian time, 2:30+!!! If they are going to breed to sell instead of breed to race,can the discussion continue about lengthening the time between races. I don't buy into the continuity on television argument being more important than keeping these horses around a while. If we kept our stars around longer, do you think the sport would be better off than keeping continuity on television. Anybody who works around horses knows they can't race this often, they can't standup to it physically. There are a lot of nices races around. Not every horse needs to be precocious and early maturing.
Fred Reardon More than 1 year ago
Hi Mike, I just think with the late - stunning -sad - scratch of the FAV, IHA, people naturally gravitate to throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Hence, thought is suspended and the biggest price becomes attractive. Who knows? I'll take away, from this day, the rally of CAIXA ELETRONICA !!! No matter what might follow. Good luck.
Yuwipi More than 1 year ago
You can say Caixa Electronica again Fred!!! Amazing rally, and I don't think he even changed leads.