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Belmont 9/19/2013: $539k Pick-6 Carryover
By Steven Crist
12:55 pm: A $539,765 triple pick-6 carryover, and a peculiar pick-5 with four stakes races including two steeplechases, will make for an unusual and challenging Thursday afternoon of exotic wagering at Belmont Park.
The first two races on the 10-race card, the $75k William Entenmann and the $150k Lonesome Glory (a G1 steeplechase) are over the fences. Those are the first two legs of a pick-5 that continues through a four-horse $100k Parlo Stakes in the 3rd and a seven-horse Spite the Devil stakes for statebred milers in the 5th.
The Spite the Devil is the first leg of that carryover in the pick-6, which was not hit Saturday, Sunday or yesterday, leaving a $539,765 carryover in the kitty that is sure to attract at least another $1 million in fresh money today. The sequence is a tough one, including a turf mile for statebred juvenile fillies being run as the 8th and perhaps best attacked with some darts and a ouija board. I'll be back with tickets and thoughts later on. Here's what the pick-6 sequence looks like after scratches as of 12:30:
1:25 pm: Weird start to a weird card. Day got off rockily start for those who took 1-to-2 (!) on the Jonathan Sheppard entry in the Entenmann as Martini Brother was nowehere and lesser entrymate Powerofone couldn't hold off 13-1 Staying On. At least it wasn't part of the carryover. You can try to get even with another Sheppard entry (Italian Wedding and Divine Fortune), currently 8-5, in the upcoming Lonesome Glory.
With the two steeplechases starting the card, the early pick-4 is on races 3 through 6 today. So let's recap today's multirace (minimum 4 races) wagers:
Pick-5: Races 1-5
Pick-4: Races 3-6
Pick-6: Races 5-10
Pick-4: Races 7-10
And lest we forget: The special Thursday Belmont-Penn National Pick-4 combining races 9 and 10 at Belmont with the first two from Penn.
1:50 pm: Double ouch for Sheppardites as the best the entry could muster was a distant third by Italian Wedding behind a fighting finish that saw 7-2 Gustavian edge 5-1 All Together in the Lonesome Glory. Gustavian, a 7-year-old gelding by Giants Causeway from the Affirmed mare Mossflower, races for Magalen O. Bryant, is trained by Leslie Young, and ran the 19 furlongs in 4:35.92 under Paddy Young.
On to the Parlo, where Street Secret opened at 2-to-5 against three opponents. I feel compelled to mention that Street Secret, who made her first 12 starts in Europe, won the 2011 Beach Boys Live at Epsom Handicap Stakes.
2:15 pm: Inside speed has been powerful in what little dirt racing there has been at this Belmont meet, and it proved unbeatable in the Parlo, as 11-1 Roman Invader led 1-to-5 Street Secret, 7-2 Sea Island and 5-1 Moon Philly on a merry chase to win the Parlo. After laying down mild fractions of 24.08, 47.44 and 1:11.96, Roman Invader prevailed in 1:43.64.
2:45 pm: If I sound like I'm playing this carryover with all the enthusiasm of a man on his way to the electric chair, it's because that's how I feel. I can't bring myself to be sufficiently logical to pass the biggest carryover of the year even on a sequence where I feel like I have no good ideas or firm convictions. My zen approach (or weaselly rationalization) is that sometimes all you can do is take your best shot and stay within your budget and hope for the best.
I'll feel silly for using two A's and two B's in the opener instead of singling Readtheprospectus like a lot of people are probably doing, but I just don't see him as a standout. Yes he's won six in a row but only one of those was at the stakes level or against opponents of today's quality, and the layoff since June makes me think he may not be fully primed for what looks to me like a prep for the Empire Classic next month. In any case, here goes:
Only 4 of the 7 runners in the 5th (the 1,2,3 and 6) are even covered in the pick-5, so there will be the first carryover in the brief history of the wager here if one of the other three wins.
3:09 pm: Zetterholm, 5-1 third choice at the time, just scratched from the 5th with three minutes to post and well over $1 million in pick-6 bets already in. Nice. You'll get moved to Readtheprospectus (now 4-5) in pick-4 and pick-6.
3:20 pm: Read the Prospectus ($3.90) beat the bias, averted a pick-5 carryover, and got the triple-carry pick-6 off to a good start for most as he ran down 7-1 Spa City Fever and 8-5 Night Maneuver to win the Spite the Devil. Fouth early as Night Maneuver and abilio dueled early with Spa City Fever a close third, Readtheprospectus swung out in upper stretch and wore down the leaders with a mile in 1:36.63. The 4-year-old Read the Footnotes gelding, owned by Klaravich/Lawrence and trained by chad Brown, has now won his last seven starts. The pick-5 paid $32,304 for $2.
3:50 pm: Double the Energy, who was so good at Gulfstream last winter and so bad in two starts at Saratoga this summer, recaptured her good form, and sent me to the showers early, to win teh second leg of the pick-6 at 8-1. She was the fifth choice in a field of nine and completed a $3,684 pick-4.
4:20 pm: Summer Shiner ($10.00), 3-1 ML favorite, finished with a burst of energy to get past Plausibly and Fiddlers Chico in the final strides of the 7th. The $2 pick-3 for the first half of the pick-6 paid $187.50 for $2.
4:55 pm: Selenite, 3-1 favorite in tough maiden turf race for statebred juvenile fillies, ran down loose 9-2 Freud's Sunset to win the 8th and keep hope alive for many. Winner is from the first crop of Cosmonaut, three-time winner of the Arlington Handicap and son of Lemon Drop Kid who may prove a good statebred turf sire.
5:30 pm: Lawyer Jim, 7-1 fifth choice in field of 8, ran down 6-5 Sneaky Kitten to win the 9th and set up the following willpays into the finale:
Eight of the 10 are covered -- the payoffs for #'s 3 and 10 are for 5 of 6. Should either win, a $1.4 million quadruple carry to tomorrow. The #3 is a Pat Reynolds firster and the #10 has run seven times without getting closer than 16 lengths.
6:00 pm: 6-to-5 Hot Rendezvous was an easy winner of the nightcap, completing a $16,961 pick-6 to 84 winners -- a lot of them singled to the winner, since the next lowest payoff (runner-up Rufus Ruth at $58k) would have had only 24 winners. The conso paid $117.50, which I suppose beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
steve, how about you and andy b both put in $100 and come up with a pick 5 (you both can have input). could be a good way to bring some more attention to the new wager. and a lot of fun for us to see whose pick it was that ruined it. looking forward to it.
FARRRRRRGH!!! My two singles make it home and I still can't catch a conso payout, thanks to Lawyer Jim.
Steve - and to Eric, I just came to see if you were blogging because the Grand Slam TODAY shows an All pay in the 2nd leg, I was out there and I don't think this is right, and on top of it being incorrectly posted yesterday ( in my opinion ) there must be something wrong with how they are sending the results. There is not one logical reason why clearly covered sequences two days in a row would have an ALL leg posted - somebody needs to figure it out and fix it, very misleading.
Steve, good on the consos. Not a bad payoff considering so much chalk.
ML 9-2 Ampa's Girl will pay $1.4M? [No, it was #5 Desert Ruler, 30-1 ML, who would have paid $1.4 million. She finished last. -SC]
Steve can you or any followers tell me why yesterday the grand slam third leg paid all. I have never seen it pay all before in a leg. Thought maybe the race came off turf but it didnt. Can you verify that the results posted are legit. If so I backed into $322 and I had crumpled up my ticket. Luckily I found it
Steve- Hoping for a couple decent consos..... Mike
Steve: I'm out as well, also couldn't get past those last two starts and the distance issues. Frankly didn't have much confidence in the last four, guess the $ made this a must play. At least my endoscopy went well this morning.
Good luck today Steve! Just curious about your thoughts on the "lightest" coverage. Today looks like leg 2 and 6. Is your handicapping strictly race-related or leg related? Do you think about a possible "plan B" when contemplating the races? (and does plan B alter your original wager? ie, late pick 4, "saver" bets on uncovered horses) I would imagine you "play to win" as an original plan, but wonder what kind of other possibilities you might entertain throughout the sequence. Thanks, as always, for your courage and our excitement as we cheer for you!
Steve, I fully understand your A,B,C system but might it be sometimes that you might be outthinking yourself on days where your ticket is structured as it is today? I calculate that your tickets cost about 2500. A caveman ticket would cost about 3500 and you would be picking up much potentially higher payouts by investing in that extra 1000. ie, there might be a point when the cost of the ABC system does not merit the savings over a caveman. [Our calculations differ -- By my count, a caveman with all horses I used would have cost $10,800 (5x3x5x6x4x3). -SC]
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