07/05/2014 2:52PM

Belmont 7/5/14: A Derby/Oaks Late pick-4

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Welcome back. Let's dip a few toes in the pre-Saratoga water with today's stakes-rich card at Belmont, which I wrote about in the Saturday column: http://www.drf.com/news/crist-big-race-days-keep-sizzle-going-new-york.

Here’s a little crib sheet on the five stakes, listing each entrant’s morning-line odds, highest Beyer on today’s surface type, and highest winning level:

 

The five stakes are not positioned ideally for stakes mavens who like the pick-6 and late pick-4 (i.e., me.) By moving the Dwyer and its five betting interests up to the 4th race to keep it out of the pick-6, a mistaken and needless move, the pick-6 on race 5-10 consists of four stakes races bookended by a pair of statebred grass races.

So despite a little $34k carry in the Pick-6, I’m going to play the late pick-4 so I can duck race 5 (a turf sprint for NY-bred maidens.) My strategy is to focus on the proven European turf horses in the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks, playing against the synthetic-surface specialists and American grass runners. The sequence starts at 4:34 pm with the Belmont Derby. Here’s the play:

WILLIAM 10 days ago
Steve Will you be able to blog the spa this year ... hope so. BB
Thomas Nicholson 11 days ago
BIG, BIG changes to Saratoga Race track. No more benches out front of Club house rail apron area. Used to be 50 or so benches now like 6. The at the Rail restaurant now goes almost out to the rail itself. This is going to be a VERY UNPOPULAR move. $$$$ forget the hundred and hundreds of clubhouse paying fans who have used these benches to take a load off their feet for a few minutes and watch a race live. Some people do go to the track to watch live races NYRA (TOY) president. Dumb move in this age of 1% ers. Beauty of Saratoga has always been that everybody rubs elbows whether rich or not sooo rich. Thats why you need race people at the top of NYRA. This jerk doesn't have a clue.
Michael Cusortelli 11 days ago
Welcome back, Steve.
Theerth Easwaran 14 days ago
thanks steve for your write up after a long gap, a humble request to you, though i do not an opportunity to play us races, i would love to read your view and by that i know you are doing fine, after reading your book EXOTIC BETTING , you are in my thoughts all the time when i visit races , thank you Steve , with gratitude easwaran
harpharper . 18 days ago
Welcome back Mr. Crist. Missed ya!!!
Yuwipi 18 days ago
Just happy to see the first blog entry since Wood day. Hoping things are progressing well.
Sinatra Jeter 19 days ago
Welcome back Steve. I hope you are getting back into form for the upcoming Saratoga meet, your favorite track. Turf Ruler
Frank Reach 20 days ago
What a great day of horse racing at Belmont Park. Well done getting that card together. Captain Serious, Moonlight Song and of course the great Zivo sure represented the NY breds well today. I love seeing the NY breds step up against the salty of the salt and bring it !
Franck Rice 20 days ago
Hallelujah!!! I don't think you know how missed you have been.
Lefty 20 days ago
I don't see Shuggy Baby's horse on any of those tickets for the 7th race. I liked Mr Speaker back in Feb / March, however, I think we all agreed Mr. Speaker is a turf horse or maybe a synthetic course horse. However, since synthetics are dwindling, you better believe, Shuggy Baby is coming to get you in the 1mile and a 1/4 turf races for the rest of the year with Mr. Speaker.