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Belmont 10/4/2013: $485k Pick-6 Carryover
12:55 pm: Here we go again go again go again. A triple carryover of $485,964 into Friday's card will create the third seven-digit Pick-6 pot of this carryover-crazy Belmont fall meeting.
Several aspects of today's sequence are familiar ones that may have something to do with the extraordinary number of carryovers since Belmont opened Sept. 6 -- a profusion of grass racing (5 of the 6 races) on the parched turf, many for maidens ( three today), with first-time starters buried in the sequence (half the field in race 7). It seems like a more manageable sextet than some recent cards, and big tickets will be out in force. Here's the lineup:
I'll fill in the results above as they happen, and be back here with my tickets before the action begins with the 5th race at 2:58 pm. If no one nails it today, there would be a quadruple carryover into Saturday's 11-race card, which includes three straight Grade 1 $500k races -- the Frizette, Champagne and Jamaica.
Only six scratches from today's sequence so far, leaving a mere 307,200 possible combos:
2:30 pm: Here's the play:
On ability, the opening leg is a two-horse race between Sapphire Blue (#8) and Despite Her Form (#5), who both have more than one race that towers opver the competition. The problem is that Sapphire Blue takes a drastic crop from $65k to $25k and Despite Her Form hasn't been out in 13 months. Thus the three C's, and the lean toward Sapphire Blue on recency.
3:05 pm: Sapphire Blue ($3.20), pounded late to 3-5, was in complete command after stalking early and drew clear over 5-2 Despite Her Form and 17-1 Bargaining Table. Everybody's alive. Sapphire Blue also completed an early $2 pick-4 worth $307 and a $2 pick-5 worth $472.
3:30pm: The NY State Gaming Commission just released its report on Eric Guillot's preposterous allegations regarding the running of the Travers and concluded that "Mr. Saez was not carrying any sort of electrical device and that Mr. Guillot's allegation was wholly unsubstantiated." You can read it here: http://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/10.04.13.TraversInvestigation.pdf
My favorite part so far is the verbatim text of Guillot's written complaint: "I Eric Guillot am filing a complaint for our lost in the race called the Traver’s at Saratoga on Aug 24th 2013 – My horse Moreno was beat a nose on the wire by horse named Take Charge Indy – After suffering biggest defeat in our career – my brother Chip who was here cooking Cajun food had recorded races on NBC line for family once he got home and watched replay on NBC on big plasma TV he said it was obvious the kid had trouble celebrating cuss of black device in right hand switching too left hand and tucking under left shoulder under saddle pad! We feel this has crossed every integrity line of horse racing and would like this investigated an resolved!"
3:40 pm: Don Tito ($11.60), who opened a chilly 9-1 before being bet late to 9-2, took over from Ground Force at top of lane and held off Photon to win the 6th.
4:10 pm: Pletcher firster Tres Hermanas, a Curlin homebred, caught 9-5 fave Radiant in final yards to win the third leg and keep us on the A train. Hard to gauge what price she was in the pick-6 -- she was the fifth choice in a field of six, but I find it hard to believe many people really leaned on Radiant.
4:45 pm: Ballerina Belle turned the contentious-looking 8th into a runaway, translating her superior dirt figs to success on the hard turf and smoking the 6f in 1:07.75. Two tough races to go -- I'm alive 1x6 (2/2,3,7,8,9,10) or 2x3 (1,3/3,8,10).
5:20 pm: Oh well. Justoneatheguys ($13.80) walked to an uncontested lead and 5-1 Sally's Dream couldn't run her down, to set up some very nice pick-6 possibilities for those who used the winner. Everyone in the finale is covered, with the three faves paying $25k, $31k and $39k up to maximum of $667k.
5:55 pm: Whine alert: Mighty Reward won the finale at $24.60 to complete a $221,048 pick-6. How much less can it pay if 5-1 Sally's Dream beats 5-1 Justoneatheguys in the 9th? I shall try not to ponder that too much.
in the hope of perhaps helping you feel a little better about the loss.... beating morning line favorites is far more important in multi-race wagers than many people, perhaps even you, care to believe. in that sequence 3 ml faves came home as projected by the morning line, (which, of course, is a higher than "average" percentage), but had 4 come in, which is what would have been the case with your 2 horse, the number of 6/6 tickets would have jumped considerably, and perhaps even more than merely that. the payoff was inordinately generous as it came through, but I wouldn't be shocked to learn that had your favorite come in (off-odds are only helpful with projections in first legs) the payoff would have been at very best 1/3 and perhaps as little as 1/8 to 1/10 of what was realized with that 4th fave going down. (that your horse and the 8/1 ml choice eventually, 2 1/2 hours later, went off at equal odds is irrelevant for pick 6 purposes.) while a 4 fave/2 all-button ticket might not often be logical, and won't lend itself to huge payoffs such as this, they exist. Plus, a lot of small fish play tickets with more favorites rather than less favorites. It's not logical to expect overlays when overusing favorites, but when they are risking 12 bucks, 30 bucks, and don't want to be crying "how could I not have used THAT horse" when the smoke clears, average joe crosses out his hunch and scribbles in yet another ml fave when crunch time comes. (of course, no one wants to miss that last leg if they're still alive, so more of the singling-favorite tickets will naturally all-button the last leg...) Personally, I prefer a sequence where I'm using favorites in the last leg. The more I can afford the better, of course, but if one has made it that far with a reasonable amount of beaten faves prior, careful coverage guaranteeing a profit with any horse winning the last leg is what anyone in it for the long haul should be striving for at the track. Nothing better than an only-matter-of-how-much winning proposition... so there, I'm quite certain you've missed a $21k score or two by less! p ensign
this will of course be advertised so that everyone knows there's a big pot!
I'm not offended by Guillot's language. What I am offended by is how he had to describe the big plasma TV his brother watched the replay on.
Steve - great blog all summer. I have mentioned here several times over the years how much better wagering would be if bettors were warned about horses in the same race with the same owner or trainer 1A, 2A etc (as opposed to being FORCED to bet them as an entry 1, 1A etc). There has been no response on these pages to this, BUT, light at the end of the tunnel, I do see today that that is what they seem to be doing in France now. Hopefully it won;t be too long before that is adopted in the US, too. The Caveat Bettor rule, perhaps!
great try....tough luck....where can I read more about the grid set-up for multi-race wagers? [Here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-ticketmaker-user-guide -SC]
STEVE, I'm late just read the E.GUillet claim LOL Now that's CRIMINAL I know an educated man as yourself took note of that text. It should have been tossed on literacy !! WHY ERIC ? Steve your still the greatest brother made my day with that
Let's give Eric a break. Many of racing's best trainers and riders don't speak or write much better. But he did fail to state his best case; apparently his horse was beaten by a 4yo, who wasn't eligible to run in the Travers.
I appreciate your restraint in not commenting on Mr. Guillot's verbatim complaint. Not sure I could have been so reserved, particularly if I were Mr. Lukas or Mr. Saez. I'm not expecting Guillot to apologize for his scurrilous and baseless accusations, but it certainly would be nice (and appropriate.)
Steve, Tough not to ponder because it probably would have paid very similar. If only you could have known that the odds on justoneoftheguys with morning line odds of 8-1 would be bet about the same as Sally's Dream who was the morning line favorite at odds of 5/2. Based on that alone, you most likely would have used the winner and won the pick six because justoneoftheguys was live on the board. I know this is hindsight and big "if" but worth mentioning because it was a close tough beat. I hope you at least hedged your bet and used justoneoftheguys in other exotics to protect your pick six. I know it is easier to hedge when you are alive in the last leg versus any other leg so understandable if you did not hedge (did you hedge)? Anyway, as always, good luck in the future!
That is rough. Beats like that have caused sleepless nights for me and feelings of self-pity. I think you are smarter and tougher than that. At least you got a decent 5 of 6 payout. Any hedging?