10/04/2013 11:53AM

Belmont 10/4/2013: $485k Pick-6 Carryover


12:55 pm: Here we go again go again go again. A triple carryover of $485,964 into Friday's card will create the third seven-digit Pick-6 pot of this carryover-crazy Belmont fall meeting.

Several aspects of today's sequence are familiar ones that may have something to do with the extraordinary number of carryovers since Belmont opened Sept. 6 -- a profusion of grass racing (5 of the 6 races) on the parched turf, many for maidens ( three today), with first-time starters buried in the sequence (half the field in race 7). It seems like a more manageable sextet than some recent cards, and big tickets will be out in force. Here's the lineup:

I'll fill in the results above as they happen, and be back here with my tickets before the action begins with the 5th race at 2:58 pm. If no one nails it today, there would be a quadruple carryover into Saturday's 11-race card, which includes three straight Grade 1 $500k races -- the Frizette, Champagne and Jamaica.

Only six scratches from today's sequence so far, leaving a mere 307,200 possible combos:

2:30 pm: Here's the play:

On ability, the opening leg is a two-horse race between Sapphire Blue (#8) and Despite Her Form (#5), who both have more than one race that towers opver the competition. The problem is that Sapphire Blue takes a drastic crop from $65k to $25k and Despite Her Form hasn't been out in 13 months. Thus the three C's, and the lean toward Sapphire Blue on recency.

3:05 pm: Sapphire Blue ($3.20), pounded late to 3-5, was in complete command after stalking early and drew clear over 5-2 Despite Her Form and 17-1 Bargaining Table. Everybody's alive. Sapphire Blue also completed an early $2 pick-4 worth $307 and a $2 pick-5 worth $472.

3:30pm: The NY State Gaming Commission just released its report on Eric Guillot's preposterous allegations regarding the running of the Travers and concluded that "Mr. Saez was not carrying any sort of electrical device and that Mr. Guillot's allegation was wholly unsubstantiated." You can read it here: http://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/10.04.13.TraversInvestigation.pdf

My favorite part so far is the verbatim text of Guillot's written complaint: "I Eric Guillot am filing a complaint for our lost in the race called the Traver’s at Saratoga on Aug 24th 2013 – My horse Moreno was beat a nose on the wire by horse named Take Charge Indy – After suffering biggest defeat in our career – my brother Chip who was here cooking Cajun food had recorded races on NBC line for family once he got home and watched replay on NBC on big plasma TV he said it was obvious the kid had trouble celebrating cuss of black device in right hand switching too left hand and tucking under left shoulder under saddle pad! We feel this has crossed every integrity line of horse racing and would like this investigated an resolved!"

3:40 pm: Don Tito ($11.60), who opened a chilly 9-1 before being bet late to 9-2, took over from Ground Force at top of lane and held off Photon to win the 6th.

4:10 pm: Pletcher firster Tres Hermanas, a Curlin homebred, caught 9-5 fave Radiant in final yards to win the third leg and keep us on the A train. Hard to gauge what price she was in the pick-6 -- she was the fifth choice in a field of six, but I find it hard to believe many people really leaned on Radiant.

4:45 pm: Ballerina Belle turned the contentious-looking 8th into a runaway, translating her superior dirt figs to success on the hard turf and smoking the 6f in 1:07.75. Two tough races to go -- I'm alive 1x6 (2/2,3,7,8,9,10) or 2x3 (1,3/3,8,10).

5:20 pm: Oh well. Justoneatheguys ($13.80) walked to an uncontested lead and 5-1 Sally's Dream couldn't run her down, to set up some very nice pick-6 possibilities for those who used the winner. Everyone in the finale is covered, with the three faves paying $25k, $31k and $39k up to maximum of $667k.

5:55 pm: Whine alert: Mighty Reward won the finale at $24.60 to complete a $221,048 pick-6. How much less can it pay if 5-1 Sally's Dream beats 5-1 Justoneatheguys in the 9th? I shall try not to ponder that too much.