11/07/2009 3:45AM

BC Ultra P6 Graded Handicap


Somehow the thoughts below on the 64 horses in the final six Breeders' Cup races will magically coalesce into a $6,000 Ultra Pick Six play by early Saturday afternoon, but it hasn't happened quite yet.

All I know for sure is that there are going to be a lot of different zig-zaggy tickets. The way I see this year's sequence is that the Sprint is contentious but manageable, the Juvenile and Classic are almost impossibly wide open, but the three races in between those two skullbusters each has a very legitimate favorite --Goldikova, Mastercraftsman and Conduit. While each is a likely winner, it's unlikely all three will come through, so I will try to construct a multiple-ticket play where I can beat at least one of them. The problem with playing a single caveman ticket in a sequence like this is that even if you narrow down your possible favorite-beaters in those three spots to just one or two alternatives, putting them all on a single ticket increases the cost geometrically while giving undue prominence to your potential upsetters.

Obviously I've got more winnowing and downgrading to do to hit my budget. Perhaps it will all look clearer in the morning.


P.S.: If you turned in early and are interested in Friday's handle figures, check out the bottom of the previous post.