11/07/2009 4:45AM

BC Ultra P6 Graded Handicap


Somehow the thoughts below on the 64 horses in the final six Breeders' Cup races will magically coalesce into a $6,000 Ultra Pick Six play by early Saturday afternoon, but it hasn't happened quite yet.

All I know for sure is that there are going to be a lot of different zig-zaggy tickets. The way I see this year's sequence is that the Sprint is contentious but manageable, the Juvenile and Classic are almost impossibly wide open, but the three races in between those two skullbusters each has a very legitimate favorite --Goldikova, Mastercraftsman and Conduit. While each is a likely winner, it's unlikely all three will come through, so I will try to construct a multiple-ticket play where I can beat at least one of them. The problem with playing a single caveman ticket in a sequence like this is that even if you narrow down your possible favorite-beaters in those three spots to just one or two alternatives, putting them all on a single ticket increases the cost geometrically while giving undue prominence to your potential upsetters.

Obviously I've got more winnowing and downgrading to do to hit my budget. Perhaps it will all look clearer in the morning.


P.S.: If you turned in early and are interested in Friday's handle figures, check out the bottom of the previous post.

eric More than 1 year ago
Hey Steve, Is there any source of the odds for today, based on yesterday's advance wagering pool?...thx
tony More than 1 year ago
morning Steve I'm playing a caveman small PK6 . Today could be a chalky day . Only question for me does D funny handle This crap surface . Yesterday the dirt horses might as well stayed home ..... Please no more BC at santa anita . I was at the meadowlands all day yesterday and you would have thought it was just another friday . Not much of a crowd . We'll see today .....
prozacjack More than 1 year ago
Dear Steve, It may BEHOOVE my fellow Bloggers to look at my assessment of this race track posted on your blog Nov.3 I stated UNLESS a horse can "Quicken" they had little chance on this SUPER GLIB turf course. I also warned against "swing'em wide Gomez, he thinks he is still at Belmont.Pace makes the race, that's what it's all about at this level, Position, position, position, we ALL know the horses are ready and their ALL trying. I wish Tom Amos would stick to training horses because he "couldn't pick his own mother out of a room full of Baboons" Analyzing work outs, what a joke, that's the trainers JOB, I have enough to WORRY about...My message is this "Pick your own horses" or don't play. I expect Colonel John to run BIG today, watch his second race back at Del-Mar, he has been giving OVER CONFIDENT rides by Gomez the last two races. Now if Zenyatta wins this, and is NOT horse of the year, it will be an East Coast conspiracy.What a group of "crack-pots" that run the Breeders Cup, I don't have ESPN2 Thanks, Knuckle Heads..........LOL
bochalls More than 1 year ago
Steve, after yesterday I am tossing all Godolphins. Think they fired all their bullets at Bel and elsewhere during the fall. That means tossing Gayego, which is a stand to say the least as he looks best, and he's run on pro ride. Too many of their runners are coming off lifetime tops (some back to back tops)and now ship to Cali to run on pro ride...no thanks. Sara Louise and 7th Street had beauty trips and no excuses. Candyman may be too late today in the sprint...what about Cost Of Freedom baby? 3rd off the lay, loves track and dist, stalker supreme moves first on Candyman and Gayego....huh babe?
Tom D More than 1 year ago
3:45 AM. wow!
david More than 1 year ago
love conditions of fridays ninth race a hawthorne- 4000 claimers for horse who have never won a race on synthetics. BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!!!!
William Albany NY More than 1 year ago
Steve, I like your thinking with you pick-6 designations, but may I suggest a couple of changes? In the Juvenile, I would make D'Funnybone a b/c, but at least move him down to a B. The dirt horses are dismalon this stuff, and I am not even sure he wants 2 turns. I don't know who you would move up if anyone to replace him as an A. In the 'Dirt' Mile, I would move both Bullsbay and Pyro down to a cx and move up both Neko Bay and Furthest Land to bc status. Mastercraftsman is far from a lock and there are several in there that clearly prefer dirt so beating the big favorite could produce boxcar payoffs in the pick bets.
Pat More than 1 year ago
Steve- Best of luck to you, your OTB 'partners' and to all of us. Lets have a fun day! Thanks for sharing your thoughts, insight and expertise with your many faithful students of the game. Pat