10/27/2008 6:32PM

BC thoughts, questions, etc.

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Breeders' Cup Turf (OSA):  Conduit- Ire (M. Stoute/R. Moore) - 116

*Breeders' Cup Sprint (OSA):  Midnight Lute (B. Baffert/G. Gomez) - 112
*Breeders' Cup Classic (OSA):  Raven's Pass (J. Gosden/L. Dettori) - 110

*Breeders' Cup Mile (OSA):  Goldikova - Ire (F. Head/O. Peslier) - 107
*Sport Page (Bel):  Kodiak Kowboy (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 106
*Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (OSA):  Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) - 105
*Knickerbocker (Bel):  Formal Decree - Ger (S. bin Suroor/J. Samyn) - 105
*Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (OSA):  Ventura (R. Frankel/G. Gomez) - 105
*Damascus (OSA):  Into Mischief (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza) - 103
*Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (OSA):  Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith) - 103
*Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (OSA):  Albertus Maximus (V. Cerin/G. Gomez) - 102
*Ack Ack (CD):  Magna Graduate (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 102
*Fayette (Kee):  Ball Four (D. Galvin/J. Garcia) - 101
*Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (OSA):  Desert Code (D. Hofmans/R. Migliore) - 101
*Father Bill Daly (Bel):  English Colony - GB (A. Penna Jr./E. Castro) - 101
*Labeeb (WO):  Just Rushing (S. Attard/E. Wilson) - 101
*Sky Classic (WO):  Lauro - Ger (A. Wohler/T. Pizarro) - 101
*Breeders' Cup Marathon (OSA):  Muhannak - Ire (R. Beckett/P. Smullen) - 100

*Thomas Edison (Med):  Blue Sailor (H. Wolfendale/H. Vega) - 98
*Mister Diz (Lrl):  Lycurgus (S. Lake/J. Arce) - 98
*Las Palmas (OSA):  Roshani (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 97
*Pegasus (Med):  Atoned (T. Pletcher/C. Decarlo) - 96
*Autumn Leaves (Mnr):  Champagne Taste (A. Gothard/J. Perez Jr.) - 96
*Turnback the Alarm (Bel):  Altesse (C. McGaughey III/J. Velazquez) - 95
*Oak Tree Derby (OSA):  Muny (M. Puype/D. Flores) - 94
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (OSA):  Stardom Bound (C. Paasch/M. Smith) - 94
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (OSA):  Donativum - GB (J. Gosden/L. Dettori) - 93
*Cascapedia (OSA):  Foxy Danseur (C. Paasch/M. Smith) - 92
*John's Gold (Bel):  Wishful Tomcat (G. Contessa/E. Castro) - 92
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile (OSA):  Midshipman (B. Baffert/G. Gomez) - 91
*Cup and Saucer (WO):  Utterly Cool (S. Attard/P. Husbands) - 90

*Walter R. Cluer Memorial (TuP):  Kalgoorlie (M. Chambers/R. Eikleberry) - 89
*Ruling Angel (WO):  Hello Maggie May (R. Attfield/T. Pizarro) - 87
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (OSA):  Maram (C. Brown/J. Lezcano) - 87
*Sunny Issues (Crc):  Amazing (T. Oliver/W. McCauley) - 86
*Marina (GG):  Victorina (G. Gilchrist/W. Antongeorgi III) - 86
*I Take All (Bel):  Successful Mission (W. Mott/E. Castro) - 85
*Missymooiloveyou (Bel):  My Magic Moment (T. Albertrani/R. Maragh) - 83
*Invitational (PM):  Ex Mountain Cop (J. Nance/J. Crispin) - 82
*Osage Hills (RP):  Laidbacklynny (K. Nolen/A. Birzer) - 81
*La Fiesta (Alb):  Sassy Blend (B. Woolley Jr./A. Juarez Jr.) - 81

*Brickyard (Hoo):  Sahmmy Davis Jr (R. Klopp/A. De Leon) - 78
*Game Cup (FE):  Lone Endeavor (G. Cowie/D. David) - 74
*Merrillville (Hoo):  Princess Composer (R. Nemann/J. Camejo) - 71
*Meadowlake (Haw):  Citizen (B. Flint/T. Thornton) - 70

*Fantasy (Hst):  Fashionable Affair (R. Gilker/F. Fuentes) - 66
*Ascot Graduation (Hst):  Tommy Danzigger (R. Gilker/D. Wilson) - 65

*Ohio Freshman (Beu):  Brother Terry (D. Rowe/E. Paucar) - 57
*Governor's Cup (Zia):  Notime to Badinage (H. Dominguez/A. Castanon) - 56

*Longshots OTB Cup (FE):  Hereisthering (M. Widenmaier/R. Dacosta) - 52

Here are the lifetime Beyer Speed Figures for the highest and lowest stakes performers of the week:

Download Condring.pdf

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Do you have any information on these Elusive Quality colts: Celtic Law (Elusive Quality-Mackie by Summer Squall); Smile Down On Me (Elusive Quality-Lavender by Smile).

I know that Smile is the same broodmare sire of Smarty Jones. Any information that you have, trainer, owner, when they may make their debut,etc., is greatly appreciated.
Calvin Carter

Celtic Law, a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Mr. Mackie from the family of Sea Hero, hasn't recorded a published workout as of yet, and I don't have any further information on him.

Smile Down on Me sold for $40,000 as a weanling before being purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds for $250,000 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale.  He does boast the same Elusive Quality - Smile 'nick' as Smarty Jones, and his dam was a multiple stakes-winner.  He just worked six furlongs out of the gate at Churchill Downs on October 22 so he should be nearing his debut.  Smile Down on Me is trained by Dallas Stewart.  Here is his page from the West Point website:

http://www.westpointtb.com/roster/view-horse.jsp?horseID=171

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Dan,

As you were counting on Fatal Bullet to sit a length or two off the pace from the cozy outside post as I was what was your reaction when he rocketed to the front for a first quarter in 21 1/5?
Mathieu

My first thought was "what are you doing?" when Fatal Bullet went to the front, but he broke so well, and with Cost of Freedom scratched and Fabulous Strike a non-pace factor, I guess Da Silva made the right decision.  Baker had Fatal Bullet cranked for this, and the horse ran the race of his life.  Midnight Lute just showed up and beat him on the square.  I don't think the results would have been reversed if he rated a bit more.

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Is it true that Curlin's move on the turn gave him a 4th quarter in just under 23 seconds??  Or is that misprint?
Kat

According to Formulator 4.1, Curlin ran his fourth quarter in 22.88.  Raven's Pass ran the same fraction in 22.60.  Tiago ran it in 22.69, and Champs Elysees ran that quarter-mile in 22.62. 

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So onward, you weary Handicappers!

HANDI-GAMBLING 107
How about some real DIRT.
Churchill Downs Wed 10/29 race#7
7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $46,000
SR Vegas



Here are the past performances:

Download HandiGambling107.pdf

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on this race.  Good luck!

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Dan, is there a way to get a poll up here? I'm curious as to how we as a group would vote Horse of the Year. You have a vote do you not? That's a tough call. Personally I would lean towards Curlin but it's very close. If Curlin had won the Man 'o War or Zenyatta had lost the Apple Blossom (her lone dirt start) I think it would still be a no brainer but of course it didn't work out that way.
Greg


I'll try to put up a poll although past performances indicate that the effort will more than likely blow up the blog than get anything of substance accomplished.  I do have a vote, but I'm extremely interested in what everybody has to say.  I'll record all of the sentiments, and do the tally by hand if need be.

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The biggest disappointment to me was Ginger Punch's performance.  Was this her first start on synthetics?  Any thoughts?
Lawduck07

She had raced on synthetics twice before the Breeders' Cup.  She won her maiden at Keeneland in 2006, and finished second in the Grade 2 Madison last year.  It's possible she didn't like the surface, and Frankel had been saying all year that he wasn't keen on running her on the synthetics, but it's also possible she just faced a better horse in Zenyatta.

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Great picks for the Breeders' Cup, folks.

Talk to you soon,

Dan