10/27/2008 5:32PM

BC thoughts, questions, etc.

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Breeders' Cup Turf (OSA):  Conduit- Ire (M. Stoute/R. Moore) - 116

*Breeders' Cup Sprint (OSA):  Midnight Lute (B. Baffert/G. Gomez) - 112
*Breeders' Cup Classic (OSA):  Raven's Pass (J. Gosden/L. Dettori) - 110

*Breeders' Cup Mile (OSA):  Goldikova - Ire (F. Head/O. Peslier) - 107
*Sport Page (Bel):  Kodiak Kowboy (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 106
*Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (OSA):  Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) - 105
*Knickerbocker (Bel):  Formal Decree - Ger (S. bin Suroor/J. Samyn) - 105
*Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (OSA):  Ventura (R. Frankel/G. Gomez) - 105
*Damascus (OSA):  Into Mischief (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza) - 103
*Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (OSA):  Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith) - 103
*Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (OSA):  Albertus Maximus (V. Cerin/G. Gomez) - 102
*Ack Ack (CD):  Magna Graduate (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 102
*Fayette (Kee):  Ball Four (D. Galvin/J. Garcia) - 101
*Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (OSA):  Desert Code (D. Hofmans/R. Migliore) - 101
*Father Bill Daly (Bel):  English Colony - GB (A. Penna Jr./E. Castro) - 101
*Labeeb (WO):  Just Rushing (S. Attard/E. Wilson) - 101
*Sky Classic (WO):  Lauro - Ger (A. Wohler/T. Pizarro) - 101
*Breeders' Cup Marathon (OSA):  Muhannak - Ire (R. Beckett/P. Smullen) - 100

*Thomas Edison (Med):  Blue Sailor (H. Wolfendale/H. Vega) - 98
*Mister Diz (Lrl):  Lycurgus (S. Lake/J. Arce) - 98
*Las Palmas (OSA):  Roshani (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 97
*Pegasus (Med):  Atoned (T. Pletcher/C. Decarlo) - 96
*Autumn Leaves (Mnr):  Champagne Taste (A. Gothard/J. Perez Jr.) - 96
*Turnback the Alarm (Bel):  Altesse (C. McGaughey III/J. Velazquez) - 95
*Oak Tree Derby (OSA):  Muny (M. Puype/D. Flores) - 94
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (OSA):  Stardom Bound (C. Paasch/M. Smith) - 94
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (OSA):  Donativum - GB (J. Gosden/L. Dettori) - 93
*Cascapedia (OSA):  Foxy Danseur (C. Paasch/M. Smith) - 92
*John's Gold (Bel):  Wishful Tomcat (G. Contessa/E. Castro) - 92
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile (OSA):  Midshipman (B. Baffert/G. Gomez) - 91
*Cup and Saucer (WO):  Utterly Cool (S. Attard/P. Husbands) - 90

*Walter R. Cluer Memorial (TuP):  Kalgoorlie (M. Chambers/R. Eikleberry) - 89
*Ruling Angel (WO):  Hello Maggie May (R. Attfield/T. Pizarro) - 87
*Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (OSA):  Maram (C. Brown/J. Lezcano) - 87
*Sunny Issues (Crc):  Amazing (T. Oliver/W. McCauley) - 86
*Marina (GG):  Victorina (G. Gilchrist/W. Antongeorgi III) - 86
*I Take All (Bel):  Successful Mission (W. Mott/E. Castro) - 85
*Missymooiloveyou (Bel):  My Magic Moment (T. Albertrani/R. Maragh) - 83
*Invitational (PM):  Ex Mountain Cop (J. Nance/J. Crispin) - 82
*Osage Hills (RP):  Laidbacklynny (K. Nolen/A. Birzer) - 81
*La Fiesta (Alb):  Sassy Blend (B. Woolley Jr./A. Juarez Jr.) - 81

*Brickyard (Hoo):  Sahmmy Davis Jr (R. Klopp/A. De Leon) - 78
*Game Cup (FE):  Lone Endeavor (G. Cowie/D. David) - 74
*Merrillville (Hoo):  Princess Composer (R. Nemann/J. Camejo) - 71
*Meadowlake (Haw):  Citizen (B. Flint/T. Thornton) - 70

*Fantasy (Hst):  Fashionable Affair (R. Gilker/F. Fuentes) - 66
*Ascot Graduation (Hst):  Tommy Danzigger (R. Gilker/D. Wilson) - 65

*Ohio Freshman (Beu):  Brother Terry (D. Rowe/E. Paucar) - 57
*Governor's Cup (Zia):  Notime to Badinage (H. Dominguez/A. Castanon) - 56

*Longshots OTB Cup (FE):  Hereisthering (M. Widenmaier/R. Dacosta) - 52

Here are the lifetime Beyer Speed Figures for the highest and lowest stakes performers of the week:

Download Condring.pdf

***

Do you have any information on these Elusive Quality colts: Celtic Law (Elusive Quality-Mackie by Summer Squall); Smile Down On Me (Elusive Quality-Lavender by Smile).

I know that Smile is the same broodmare sire of Smarty Jones. Any information that you have, trainer, owner, when they may make their debut,etc., is greatly appreciated.
Calvin Carter

Celtic Law, a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Mr. Mackie from the family of Sea Hero, hasn't recorded a published workout as of yet, and I don't have any further information on him.

Smile Down on Me sold for $40,000 as a weanling before being purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds for $250,000 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale.  He does boast the same Elusive Quality - Smile 'nick' as Smarty Jones, and his dam was a multiple stakes-winner.  He just worked six furlongs out of the gate at Churchill Downs on October 22 so he should be nearing his debut.  Smile Down on Me is trained by Dallas Stewart.  Here is his page from the West Point website:

http://www.westpointtb.com/roster/view-horse.jsp?horseID=171

***

Dan,

As you were counting on Fatal Bullet to sit a length or two off the pace from the cozy outside post as I was what was your reaction when he rocketed to the front for a first quarter in 21 1/5?
Mathieu

My first thought was "what are you doing?" when Fatal Bullet went to the front, but he broke so well, and with Cost of Freedom scratched and Fabulous Strike a non-pace factor, I guess Da Silva made the right decision.  Baker had Fatal Bullet cranked for this, and the horse ran the race of his life.  Midnight Lute just showed up and beat him on the square.  I don't think the results would have been reversed if he rated a bit more.

***

Is it true that Curlin's move on the turn gave him a 4th quarter in just under 23 seconds??  Or is that misprint?
Kat

According to Formulator 4.1, Curlin ran his fourth quarter in 22.88.  Raven's Pass ran the same fraction in 22.60.  Tiago ran it in 22.69, and Champs Elysees ran that quarter-mile in 22.62. 

***

So onward, you weary Handicappers!

HANDI-GAMBLING 107
How about some real DIRT.
Churchill Downs Wed 10/29 race#7
7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $46,000
SR Vegas



Here are the past performances:

Download HandiGambling107.pdf

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on this race.  Good luck!

***

Dan, is there a way to get a poll up here? I'm curious as to how we as a group would vote Horse of the Year. You have a vote do you not? That's a tough call. Personally I would lean towards Curlin but it's very close. If Curlin had won the Man 'o War or Zenyatta had lost the Apple Blossom (her lone dirt start) I think it would still be a no brainer but of course it didn't work out that way.
Greg


I'll try to put up a poll although past performances indicate that the effort will more than likely blow up the blog than get anything of substance accomplished.  I do have a vote, but I'm extremely interested in what everybody has to say.  I'll record all of the sentiments, and do the tally by hand if need be.

***

The biggest disappointment to me was Ginger Punch's performance.  Was this her first start on synthetics?  Any thoughts?
Lawduck07

She had raced on synthetics twice before the Breeders' Cup.  She won her maiden at Keeneland in 2006, and finished second in the Grade 2 Madison last year.  It's possible she didn't like the surface, and Frankel had been saying all year that he wasn't keen on running her on the synthetics, but it's also possible she just faced a better horse in Zenyatta.

***

Great picks for the Breeders' Cup, folks.

Talk to you soon,

Dan

SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
HandiGambling 107 1$ Tri Box 1-7-8-10-11 = 60$ 5$ WP #1, #7, #8 = 30$ ...and if Passion Du Coer draws in 5$ WP = 10$ why?..Smokin Kitty & Taptobe are grey, Heart Ashley nice works & Zayat connections, Tsunami Bertie has a 3rd start & likely to be in the money again, & Terrell Cheney I like his DP#'s. ...not the most logic of reasons, I know, but so be it. It's Dan's imaginary $$ I'm playing with. SR Vegas
slewofdamascus More than 1 year ago
[way too kind, but thanks, Van Savant - we feel the same about you] Smile *** /Help Box/ Is the public allowed to watch the morning workouts (at a given thoroughbred racetrack)? Is it a matter of discretion for each track? What are the typical hours? Where are they on wake-up calls? And a ride?
johnnyz More than 1 year ago
Greg, Congratulations on winning Alan's contest. Alan sent me your address. I won't have dry-ice in untill next Monday-11/3. I ship one day express, so I will have a time within one hour of when our ribs will arrive. As soon as I ship I will post an arrival time. Also thanks to you, Annie, and Calvin for the kudos on last nights thread. Just simple honest observation and facts IMO. Also Annie, thanks for posting observations from the Friday races. What you posted is the reason I made a fortune on Saturday. Slew, like a magnet I am trying to pull you back in. Look I really respect your thoughts and insights on any racing subject. Although, as with many because the race was the BC Classic I feel the total picture gets cloudy. Curlin did not handle the track! Was he totally bad on it? NO. Go back and read my post last night at 1:52 AM on BC Friday about Curlin's BC race and I challenge you to find fault or make an argument that my thoughts are wrong! Handigambling for tomorrow. I feel #14 Passion Du Coeur on the AE list is the most sure winner from a pedigree aspect, her running style, and her last performance. The only way I bet this race is if she gets in even with Dan's money. With my own money I might make a $10 W/P/S on the 30/1 Smarty Jones Filly---Antigone Jones simply because Smarty has had a few that bombed in their first try to come back and run lights out in their second out. Also, Antigone Jone's damsire is Valid Appeal which IMO richens the pot even more.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Katie, You do know Passion is an also eligible, don't you? Just wondering because as I recall the last time I looked at an Equibase PP, you can barely see their tiny little also eligible note. Unlike the DRF PPs which have a nice big heading and a separation from the main entries. Chicago Gerry, LOL! I had no idea you were so well versed in French. Slew, You know you can't stay away. This is too much fun. Annie
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
Steve T. / Ray Manley; Your discussion on this topic is worthy, and a touchy one at that. I applaud the even-minded discourse. But it did take me back to my childhood, and I do seem to recall with good clarity, a certain episode of The Bob Newhart Show…and the following discourse is relevant and revealing as well, I believe: Dr. Hartley: “You know what, Duke…you are a…a… (Laughter)…a hot-dog…and (Laughter)…and…a….a…a hot-dog needs a… a… a bun… (Laughter)…and…and…and…ketchup, and mustard…and relish… The Duke of Dunk (interrupting Dr. Bob): “Yeah, well I may be a hot-dog, but I like my hot-dogs with beans…and the fans are the beans (big laughter). There you have it. The fans are the beans. Always have been, and always will be. Ask The Duke of Dunk. (Sorry to go Dr. Bob on here, but I couldn’t resist).
Annie More than 1 year ago
Here is a list of some of the many horses that entertained us and sometimes even thrilled us in 2008. A- Abraaj B- Big Brown C- Curlin D- Divine Park E- Eight Belles F- Forever Together G- Ginger Punch H- Heatseeker I- Indian Blessing J- J Be K K- Kip Deville L- Lemon Drop Mom M- Music Note N- Nashoba's Key O- Out of Control P- Proud Spell Q- Quip R- Raven's Pass S- Stardom Bound T- Tiago U- Union Avenue V- Ventura W- Well Armed X- Xffirmed (Oh, that was a long time ago, but he was mine for awhile) Y- You And I Forever Z- Zenyatta Well, now that the scratches are up, I'd better look at the Handigambling race before it's run and done. Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Molesap, Scarlet Secret is scratched. Peter, How wonderful that you got to see those magnificent animals in person! Glad you enjoyed it. Annie
Stephen Taylor More than 1 year ago
Ray and Steve T- Interesting back and forth discussion. I'm in a small partnership in Illinois (just racing, no breeding although last year we sold a horse we had claimed for 25k for 80k as a broodmare because she was a half sister to Asiatic Boy) and from my 2 years of being involved, I can tell you that, at least in Illinois, it's tough to make a profit. (I didn't get in to make a profit, I have more fun than you can possibly imagine). I can (although I can't officialy speak for the partnership) pretty much PROMISE that were we lucky enough to come across a high class horse with value as a stud, we'd retire him or sell him to be retired. The bottom line is that those type of horses are few and far between, and to criticize someone for making a nice profit should one come along just isn't fair. I can guarantee that for every Curlin that comes along, there are tons of horses who either don't work out for some reason or are just plain slow. Now what I can say is that with my share of the huge profits (excuse me while I dream!) I would become more involved in the game (It's a game to me, but so is betting horses but that doesn't mean a profit isn't a nice added bonus). The problem to me isn't the breeders, it's the people who are spending unbelievable amounts of money for yearlings on the off chance they'll develop into superstars-although I'm sure that if you tracked those high price purchases, as many or more turn into "Green Monkeys". While we all get excited about the Triple Crown that's a big part of the problem. If America's most prestigous races weren't geared to 3 year olds, horses would race at older ages. The Derby is pretty much every owner (or trainer or jockey's) dream so if that is accomplished.
Peter Vescovo More than 1 year ago
My 1st BC visit was very enjoyable even though I didn't get on the Euro's. Should have seen the trend. I was watching the the mounting and parade for the Classic and mentioned to my brother that Ravens Pass seemed to be very charged. Could it have been the 1st time lasik? Of course I didn't run and play him to win (what an idiot) I left him underneath Curlin of course. I thought the horses were spectacular specimens and every race was worth the admission price. It was amazing to watch the Z horse being rated for the first 7/8ths of the race and then blow by the field. She was incredible! Enough babbling, my picks for wed. exercise are: $1 Tri 1-3/1-3-10/1-3-9-10-11= $12 $1 Tri 3-10/3-10-11/1-3-9-10-11= $12 $5 Ex. 1-3/1-3-9-10-11=40 $1 SF 1-3/1-3-10/1-3-9-10-11/1-3-9-10-11= $24 $.10 SF 5-9/1-3-5-9/1-3-5-9-10/1-3-5-9-10-12= $10.80 $.10 SF 4-9/1-3-4-9/1-3-4-9/1-3-4-9-6= $2.40 I think that should total $99.20 Good luck everyone.
Molesap More than 1 year ago
Handigambling 107 Passion Du Coeur seems to have drawn into the race and I expect a much better race second time out for McPeek. Firster Bandora is also of some interest and the favorite looks like she’ll run well. I’ll also through in the Scarlet Secret who may run better after breaking slowly from the rail. $50 WIN Passion Du Coeur $1 TRI Passion Du Coeur / Bandora, Tsunami Bertie, Scarlet Secret $1 TRI BOX Passion Du Coeur, Bandora, Tsunami Bertie, Scarlet Secret $0.10 SU Passion Du Coeur / Bandora, Tsunami Bertie, Scarlet Secret $0.10 SU BOX Passion Du Coeur, Bandora, Tsunami Bertie, Scarlet Secret $5 EX Passion Du Coeur / Bandora, Tsunami Bertie, Scarlet Secret