10/26/2011 10:35PM

BC Pre-Entry Cheat Sheet, Version 1.0

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Here's the first version of Breeders' Cup Cheat Sheet I'll be updating over the next 10 days, providing an at-a-glance summary of the fields for the 15 races at Churchill Downs Nov. 4 and 5.

The most striking thing about this year's first entry round was how many horses were cross-entered in two races and how the final decisions about who goes where could radically change the complexion of some races. Everyone expects Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo to run in the Classic, but both would be strongly favored if for some reason they instead entered their "backup" races -- the Ladies' Classic and Dirt Mile, respectively -- when final fields are drawn Monday. There are several similar situations involving cross-entries between the Sprint and Dirt Mile, the Ladies' Classic and F&M Sprint, and even between the dirt and grass versions of the 2-year-old races. Horsemen may spend the next few says reconsidering some of their initial preferences.

For this initial exercise, though, let's take everyone at his word. The pre-entries below are organized as if each horse is going to run in his first-preference race (designated in the first column of each line). I've listed each horse's starts, wins, earnings and highest-winning-level (HWL) within the first-preference race only rather than repeating the information in the second-choice races.

In overflow races, I've listed the pre-entries in three groups when relevant: first the ones who have qualified or been selected into the body of each race; then the second-preference horses, who would displace also-eligibles if they are entered in their second-preference races; and finally the also-eligibles in the order they would draw in as spots open up through defections or second-preference horses in fact being entered into their first-choice races.

Let's take the Juvenile Fillies Turf as an example. The two numbers number after each race name -- "17/5" in this case -- means 17 were entered in the race as their first preference, while 5 others designated the race as their second preference. Nine first-preference entrants are listed first, followed by the five second-preference entrants, all of whom were ranked above the eight who at the moment are technically also-eligibles. If the five second-preference fillies all enter their first-choice race, the first five also-eligibles would draw in, with the three other also-eligibles then able to get in only if there are further defections.

Crystal clear? I didn't think so. The good news is that this example race is the worst-case one, with exclusions unlikely in most of the other races despite some lingering uncertainty over who will go where.

I enter all this stuff by hand, so please feel free (like you wouldn't anyway) to call any typos to my attention. I like to spend pre-entry day swimming in a pool of raw data, familiarizing myself with this mass of horseflesh that I'll be analyzing over the next week. This is the template I'll be using for final entries next week, eventually to be expanded for comments, picks, and A/B/C selections for multirace wagers.

So here they are, your 193 pre-entrants for the 15 Breeders' Cup races of 2011. First impressions?

 

 

Richh More than 1 year ago
I know it's not on topic here, but I have a question from this past weekend's events. It was unfortunate to see the final cards of Belmont shorten due to the weather. What would have happened if there was a Pick-6 carryover from Friday's card? Since Belmont's meet ended on Sunday, would NYRA be permitted to carry it to Aqueduct, or would they have to carry it into the new year on opening day of the 2012 Spring meet? I'm sure proponents of allowing Pick-6 carries from track to track would be interested. For people such as you, chasing mandatory pool payouts on the end of a meet, it's a good thing that there was no money still in the kitty, otherwise it would have further fuel their need to change the rules. [The SRWB would make the call, but common sense suggests they just would have carried it to Friday (opening day) at Aqueduct. This really isn't an issue in NY, since NYRA (or the state) owns both Aqueduct and Belmont. If it happened on a circuit with different owners, they might have to carry the bet to the start of the cancelled track's next meeting. -SC]
Themarathonman More than 1 year ago
Like to learn about your exotics system, how do I find it ? Thanks [You can start here -- http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker -- and if you're still interested, consult the book "Exotic Betting" or the DVD "Exotic Tickets." -SC]
Jimbo More than 1 year ago
Thank you ,first draft on TicketMaker here we come.
Anthony More than 1 year ago
Steven, I have a question not directly related to this particular blog, but didn't know how else to contact you and ask. Any advice on how I can obtain information about a particular track's "reputation" for speed/times? I am familiar with all of the major tracks, but I periodically come across an intriguing horse being shipped in from a track about which I am not comfortably familiar - in this specific example it's Remington. Better yet, is there any statistical "par" informaton so that all tracks could be compared easily? Thanks a bunch. [The Beyer Speed Figures take into account all the factors you are asking about and are designed to provide reliable comparisons between tracks. -SC]
Formalgold More than 1 year ago
It looks like the advent of the Dirt Mile has again compromised the Sprint this year, splitting up the fields into two mildly interesting races instead of one fantastic one. The F&M Sprint and Turf Sprint probably siphoned off a few runners as well. If you look at the Dirt Mile, Shackleford, Rule, and Tres Borrachos appear to be there in the spirit of shopping for an easier spot than the Classic. The first two also seem to be up against it in staying out the mile and a quarter of the Classic, which may be another reason they were entered in the Mile. But that sort of thing gives the Mile even more of an air of a consolation race. I'm not sure we should dilute the BC with this kind of race if it's going to draw these types of fields.
J-PA More than 1 year ago
Sorry for the dopey question, but can anyone explain how to actually print the fine work that Mr. Crist has compiled for us here? Thanks.
Ed C. More than 1 year ago
J-PA, I right clicked over the cheat sheet, clicked on "select all" everything should be highlighted now as if doing a copy and paste, then right click over it again and choose "print". done.
larry More than 1 year ago
steve,can you tell me why the dirt mile is a one turn mile rather then a proper two turn 1-1/16.theres a big differance between one turn vs two turn. [The one-turn version IS the proper version. The race is not called the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and a Sixteenth. -SC]
usmc68 More than 1 year ago
best bet secret circle......elusive kate...m..y miss aurelia.......midday good luck.......
Cardmania More than 1 year ago
Steve, What is the value of the BC point system? In the Juv Fillies Turf, Ann of The Dance (1 point) may get excluded if one of the 2nd preference horses actually opts for the Turf race rather than their first preference. Bourbonstreetgirl (1 point), further down the AE list, looks certain to be excluded. How can these horses be excluded after earning a point when there are others that will get in without points? -Cardmania
Defiantslave More than 1 year ago
I can field this question. According to the pre-entry selection rules, a horse can qualify by (1) winning a BC Challenge race, (2) accumulating American/Canadian graded stakes "points", and (3) election by the panel of racing experts. For NON 2 YEAR OLDS, you can get an automatic bid once you hit 6 points. A horse with 5 points cannot automatically bid into a race over a horse with zero points. A horse with 5 points would have to be elected by the panel, and is on the same footing as a horse with zero points. For juveniles, to be elected on points alone, you must accrue two points for the automatic bid. Therefore, and the easy answer to your question is that a horse with 1 point is equal to a horse with zero points, and is at the mercy of the expert panel.
Perplexed Punter More than 1 year ago
Thanks for this Steve. I'm holding off putting a lot of study time into these cards as yet. Without knowing the weather/track condition, it is a bit of a lottery. What I do know is that Brian Meehan's entry will see a bit of my money after the last two years' results. BTW, are there any stats on % winning/in the money favorites for the BC at Churchill Downs?