10/28/2010 12:23PM

BC Pre-entries: First Look

By Steven Crist
Email

The 184 horses pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup have combined to win 865 races from 2,286 career starts, including 132 Grade 1 or Group 1 races, and earned $125,803,733.

The table below is my first step in the intensive but highly enjoyable annual ritual of handicapping the Cup races, which have drawn bigger and more contentious fields this year with the eight main-track races back on dirt at Churchill Downs. This first iteration of an oversized cheat sheet lists each horse's age, sex, starts, victories, earnings, highest winning level and number of career Grade or Group 1 victories: 

(I do this by hand, with the past performances on one side of the computer screen and the spreadsheet on the right, so please feel free to draw any errors or omissions to my attention.)

Here's a little leaderboard from the statistics above:

 

A few scattered notes and observations:

--With 4 of the 14 races now being for 2-year-olds, juveniles account for 56 of the 184 pre-entries, just over 30 percent. I was struck that while the BC Juvenile will have only 10 starters, an astounding 7 of them are already Grade 1 winners: All five winners of the five G1 races to date in the U.S. for 2-year-old males (Boys at Toscanova, J P's Gusto, Jaycito, J. B. 's Thunder and Uncle Mo) plus the undefeated foreign Group 1 winners Biondetti from Great Britain and Murjan from Peru. Can anyone think of a 2-year-old race that ever had seven G1 winners it? I can't.

--In addition to the 56 2-year-olds, the pre-entries include 32 3-year-olds, 46 4-year-olds,, 32 5-year-olds, 12 6-year-olds and five 7-year-olds -- the geldings Awesome Gem, Silver Timber and Stradivinsky,, and the horses Alcomo and Society's Chairman.

--Note that there's been some tinkering with the order of races on both days based on expected field size. The Juvenile Fillies and F&M Turf were switched on Friday as were the Sprint and Dirt Mile on Saturday. So now the race order is as follows:

Friday: Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, F&M Sprint, Juvenile Fillies, F&M Turf, Ladies' Classic.

Saturday: Juvenile Turf, Sprint, Turf Sprint, Juvenile, Mile, Dirt Mile, Turf, Classic.

So get to work, though you're allowed time off for Game 2 of the World Series tonight. Of course I'm delighted the Giants took Game 1 last night, but after the Great Collapse of 2002, no Giants fan is exactly cocky.

Note to the 3 million Cablevision subsribers in the New York area who are blacked out of the World Series on cable because of the ongoing Cablevision/Fox dispute: Did you know that you most of you can still get Fox over the air simply by attaching that old rabbit-ear antenna you never threw out to your HD-ready monitor? The over-the-air hi-def picture is as sharp as cable or sattellite and it sure beats trying to watch it on your computer via Major League Baseball's "enhanced Postseason coverage," which gives you a choice of camera angles but provides no graphics or replays.

XRumerTest More than 1 year ago
Hi there, All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure. Footballers wives tanya and conrad on plane sex scene1 Myamnarxnxx3 Evanna lynch look alike2 Week 5 acc 561 question 12-591 Fim score cheat1
Bernard Downes More than 1 year ago
Steve, not to labour the Goldikova/Paco Boy question, can I ask if, when you are handicapping horses, do you use the individual race ratings or the lifetime best (i.e. the horses potential)? For my part, unless a horse is clearly out of form, I tend to favour the career best figure. Of course, you have to make sure it is not a freak, never to be repeated rating, but I see no need to worry in Goldikova's case.
Qev More than 1 year ago
In 2009 the Zenyatta camp campaigned their horse with one goal in mind; A Breeders’ Cup win. They got that and an Eclipse award to boot. They should have had no complaints. Here in 2010, her connections have, once again, shunned any consideration of the criteria that goes into (or should go into) any and all HOTY voting decisions. Things like the level a horse has competed at during the year in question; the importance of the races a horse has competed in (competitively); and, the toughness of competition faced. Instead of providing her with the HOTY campaign that she and her fans so deserved—not to mention one that horse racing could ‘so’ use right about now—they chose, again, to target a singular end of year goal; A Breeders’ Cup victory. I hope they get it. But, if they don’t, and end up losing HOTY to a more deserving horse that has competed successfully at the ‘truly open’ and toughest Grade 1 level during the year in question…oh well, they’ve no one to **Blame** but themselves.
Terri More than 1 year ago
Steve, Great job as usual. As to your Zenyatta piece, that was awesome as well. I am happy you stuck to the facts as well. I wholeheartedly agree that she has to earn HOTY on the track. It was very disappointing to read in your article that there are voters who have already decided that they are voting for her no matter what happens in the Breeder's Cup. I was wondering if they worked for ESPN who likes to decide championships in various sports before the game is even played. Zenyatta's a great mare, but she should be awarded HOTY on merit and not on sentimentality or because some people thought she was ripped off.
Paul More than 1 year ago
Zenyatta should have run the Arc. How can one own a mare like that and not try to conquer Paris? Imagine her at Longchamp passing the fans, then the rustling trees, and finally, stunned Grade I horses of international fame, who appear to trot in comparison. Ahh, a missed chance of a lifetime. And, truly, whether she won (or lost by a nose) would be besides the point, if such a worthy setting had been chosen to display her majesty. Perhaps, in a week, we'll be able to say, "Well at least we have the Classic at Churchill". But, then again, in poor grammar..."What if she don't".
BernardDownes More than 1 year ago
I was puzzled by the question from Stat Geek re the respective ratings for Goldikova and Paco Boy. According to my reading of the Racing Post website, the career best ratings for the 2 horses gives the edge, 131 to 127, to Goldikova. About right in my opinion given their existing head to head record. [He was asking about the individual RPR's assigned to each race, with Paco Boy having gotten slightly higher ones in races where he finished behind Goldy. -SC]
luresdouble More than 1 year ago
Zenyatta will lose at CD. She will not beat older quality males on real dirt. Last year she basically beat up on a weak classic field full of turf horses trying to run on synthetic and a true dirt horse Summer Bird who did not like the synthetic. Now she faces dirt males on a true BC Classic track run on real dirt. The BC Classic, the Juvenile, the Juv Fillies, the Sprint and the Distaff have all been bastardized and cheapened in recent years by being run on synthetics. If anyone thinks Ravens Pass for example would have beaten Curlin on real dirt you need a drug test. Those BC races I mentioned were designed to test the best DIRT horses in those categories, not the best plastic/rubber protrack pretend turf horses. Having BC's run on any synthetic tracks should not be permitted, period. Thanks goodness Santa Anita is going back to real dirt, let Hollywood and Del Mar run the equivalent of 10 race turf programs which is really what sythetic tracks offer as all the races are either on turf or its near fake rubber equivalent. If I want to see nothing but turf racing I'll go to France or GB or Ireland, I have no desire to watch it or wager on it. Its shameful how american dirt racing is being compromised by all these synthetic tracks which statistically have proven not to be one iota safer than the dirt tracks they replaced, and thats why they were supposedly installed. Future weathercast for Churchill is clear the whole week. That bodes very well for Lookin at Lucky who will take the classic. Sorry Mike, Zen and John but their is no fake rubber track upon which you can take advantage of ok turfers and dirt horses who do not like it this year. And when she does lose please do not start all the whining about track bias or other stuff being her downfall because the reality is that most of her synthetic wins have been on tracks which inherently have a bias towards her deep closing style and i heard none of her cheerleaders chirping about that for the last 17 to 19 races. She;ll lose because shes simply not fast enough to beat older males on the real thing.
Moonie More than 1 year ago
(inspired by CSK) People who voted for Rachel Alexandra for HOY 2009 should respectfully recuse themselves from ever casting another vote for the Eclipse Awards. Minimal research into the matter revealed the only logical conclusion for 2009. Twas only haste and personal bias which could render anyone to have voted for Rachel Alexandra over the only deserving candidate in 2009. Having said that, I cannot yet commit to Zenyatta being a shoe-in for 2010 at the present time and pending next Saturday's outcomes.
David More than 1 year ago
This is a little off-topic, but I wanted to thank you, Steve, for your article about Zenyatta and the horse of the year honour. I do agree with you, though little about Zenyatta and that award is uncontroversial. What I liked about your article was the absence of criticism of Zenyatta. Many on the east coast bash her as having faced weaker opposition, etc. etc. But 19 of 19, most in stakes races, speaks volumes. Even a great horse has an off day. The great horse Secretariat lost a couple of times. Zenyatta has always won, and often in thrilling style. I suspect that you are right that if she loses to a horse like Quality Road, her title as Horse of the Year is justifiably in doubt. I assume Zenyatta retires after the Classic. The possibility that Zenyatta does not win horse of the year, and justifiably so, suggests there is a gap in the award structure. Perhaps it is time for a new Eclipse award, for Career Achievement - for the retiring horse that has shown a sustained extraordinary achievement throughout its career. And to make it extra special, it does not have to be awarded every year. Rather, the recipient must get 80%+ support on the ballots. What do you think? [I think that gap is already remedied by having a Hall of Fame, where -- after a five-year gap for reflection and context -- many horses who were not Horse of the Year are rightly enshrined for the quality of their entire careers. For example, only four fillies have been HOTY in recent decades but dozens have rightly been inducted into the Hall of Fame. I think a Best Retiring Horse Eclipse would be redundant and confusing. -SC]
Ryan More than 1 year ago
Steve, I believe the order of races for Saturday is wrong in Formulator? It has the Dirt Mile as 2nd BC race. Believe it was flipflopped with Sprint, and your chart is correct. But Formulator is wrong. [You are correct. The race order in Formulator is as it stood when we were given the entries by Equibase, which now says it can not change the race order without compromising the entire database. -SC]
csk More than 1 year ago
Steve - also enjoyed your article on Zenyatta, but I respectfully disagree and agree with your colleagues With a bit of time, the writers got it wrong in 2009 - Zenyatta was the HOY And so when history looks back, and Zenyatta, regardless of next Saturday, is viewed as all time great, it will be important for the writers to honor Zenyatta this year First of all, regardless of next Saturday, no one at this point has had a better year, and we are ten months through the year, so as the writers wrongly discounted the Classic last year in voting for Rachel, why not follow that precedent? Second of all, Churchill is a track with a very distinct bias - one that the wise Calvin Borel knows all too well...
Stat Geek More than 1 year ago
Are the Racing Post ratings for Goldikova accurate? In DRF's advance edition, Paco Boy earned a higher rating than Goldikova in three (3) races this year even though Goldikova defeated and/or finished ahead of Paco Boy in each race. What gives? [Euros place more emphasis on weight than we do. Paco Boy carried more weight than Goldikova in the races where she finished in front of him, thus the higher ratings. -SC]
James Mc More than 1 year ago
...The premise of Steve's article seems to be that the Classic will be the acid test, the decisive contest that will decide it all. He is saying that either Lucky, Blame, Zenyatta or Quality Road could win HOTY based on the result of the Classic. All racing fans should be fine with that. Much of the vitriol from last year resulted from the obvious fact that Zenyatta showed up and won the acid test, the preeminent race, against a huge field while her rival was put safely out to pasture and managed to squeak out a HOTY victory while failing to meet Zenyatta on the field of battle. I think most Zenyatta fans are ok with her having to win the big one to get the title this year. She's never had a problem "proving it on the racetrack". No "sentimentality" required.
Jeremy More than 1 year ago
Longshot wins the Classic, Proviso beats Goldikova in the Mile--any shot at HOTY?
Wayne C. More than 1 year ago
Steve, Your article on Zenyatta was spot on. I'm not sure what the obsession with HOTY is anyway. Very few mares have won that award it and even when they did it was generally because the older male horses were a poor lot (including last year). Some incredible mares did not win it. She's already got her 3rd Eclipse Award for older mares sown up and for those that understand the differences between synthetic and dirt racing she will always be regarded as one of the greatest mares of all time. The haters have never understood her ability, the ability of some of her competition, or synthetic racing well enough to be taken seriously anyway. IMO the only question is whether the 2010 version of Zenyatta is as good as the peak 2008 and 2009 version. IMO, that is not clear. The peak 2008 and 2009 version would make this an interesting race.
Nick Alexander More than 1 year ago
Steve, Any comment on one of the best horses in the world running three long grass races in 10 days? He's now favorite for the Melbourne Cup! We baby our horses over here (actually the Brits do, too) but in Hong Kong and the Pacific, they seem to run them when they are in form.
michael saunders More than 1 year ago
i have a question for Mr. Crist....what do you think the worst case scenario payout would be for 50 cent triple....Goldikova/Proviso/Paco Boy. [That could be ugly small. One early line has them 7-5/12-1/9-2 but that's with Gio Ponti in the field. The most similar BC result I could find was in the '06 F&M Turf: the tri of Ouija Board (7-5)-Film Maker (8-1)-Honey Ryder (8-1) paid $121.20 for $2, which would be $30.30 for $0.50. -SC]
ElAngelo More than 1 year ago
Look no further back than Goldikova's win in 2008 at 9-5 over 4-1 Kip Deville and 4-1 Whatsthescript. That triple paid $95 for $2, and you could argue that was generous since nobody else in the field was under 10-1.
Jim More than 1 year ago
Steve, Excellent article about Zenyatta. I would add one more thing...if she loses handily she will be labeled as the synthetic horse of the year. If she makes it close...then I could see voting for her as horse of the year. The natural dirt is the only question mark I would have for her, but she's all in now. She couldn't simply run in the distaff and top last years classic performance. Somehow I don't see her sweeping style able to sustain her from the turn and down that long stretch...she's a bit of a grinder but Mike Smith better ride every horse this upcoming week with Zenyatta in mind. My two cents...
AndyScoggin More than 1 year ago
Is the Jockey, number of wins wins, bet being offered this year? I think that was the only bet I cashed last year. LOL! [Yes it is. And remember: Betting on "all others" means you're betting on the TOTAL victories of "all others," not on one particular jockey winning more races than any of the individual betting interests. -SC]
AndyScoggin More than 1 year ago
Bravo, your HOTY article is right on. Thanks, for sticking to the facts and not bowing to the silly sentimental votes for Zenyatta regardless of her 20th win. The Zenyatta connections have no one to blame but themselves for the lack of HOTY. They wanted the win streak and they got it, but it cost them HOTY last year and it might cost them this year, if she loses.
rickeyd More than 1 year ago
If the owner and trainer of Supreme Summit supplemented him because of his last race I believe they should of kept the same jock aboard what do you think.
Alan More than 1 year ago
When will post positions be drawn? DRF is doing an excellent job in preparing information for the BC. The Breeder's Cup Contenders article was especially informative with the video of last race feature. [Entries for both days will be drawn Tuesday Nov. 2. -SC]
Steve R More than 1 year ago
Great work Steve. Enjoyed the tidbits.
Joe Urbonowicz More than 1 year ago
Steve Crist I would like you to know that I will give the pick six one hell of a shot with only $2.00. Lets see who wins it me or you. [Good luck to us both. I'm locked into playing it for $5,000 so I might have a little bit of an advantage going in. -SC]
Brett Clark More than 1 year ago
Why is Rose Catherine, a 3yo filly in the turf sprint toting 124 lbs? Should be 121 at most. [She's not; she carries 121. -SC]
JK More than 1 year ago
Steve, I have a NYRA account but don't always have access to the internet so I call in the bet over the phone. When I've done this to bet Monmouth's $0.50 cent Pick 5, I'm told the minimum is $1.00 over the phone, even though the NYRA Rewards site says it accepts the 50 cent option. Is the NYRA internet operation different than the NYRA phone in? I'm just concerned that the NYRA rewards on line will have 50 cent options for the Breeders Cup but if I phone it in, I'll still have to bet the $1.00 minimum's. Hopefully you have some insight. Thanks.
steve33 More than 1 year ago
In the F&MSprint I think Sweet August Moon has a shot to run big at a price. I also expect Big Drama to be very salty in the sprint .His last race going 7f was great and 6f is right in his wheelhouse,my best play of the day. Lastly Quality Road is a definite play against. Works haven't been impressive ,nor have his last 2 races.
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
Some excellent stuff, though I'll wait until the official BC PPs are out next week (there is plenty of racing going on between now and then). Still think BC Ltd. is missing the boat by having only eight of the BC events on Saturday. I know they wanted full BC Pick Sixes both days, but I think they are missing out on a chance to attract lottery players by not having nine BC races on Saturday so there can be a "pick nine for a dime" (10-cent Pick 9) on the Saturday BC Card that I would do with a $5 Million guaranteed pool. Being able to advertise the possibility of winning $5 million for a 10-cent wager may very well be enough to bring in those who normally play the lottery into the mix, possibily creating new fans in the process. What I would be looking at is moving the marathon back to Saturday so it can be the first leg of a 10-cent pick-9 wager on the Saturday BC races. If necessary so there can be full BC Pick-Sixes both days, I would add a new, $250,000 Breeders' Cup Starter Classic at 1 1/4 Miles for three year olds and upward that have started a minimum of three times for a claiming price of $35,000 or less during the calendar year. That's a race I suspect would have no trouble filling and can be the event that kicks off the BC, with the side benefit of seeing perhaps even more horses nominated to the BC knowing if there is a chance of at least being able to run in a race like a Starter Classic.
El Angelo More than 1 year ago
Steve: do you know whether we'll be allowed to bet at the new sub-$1 minimums for the BC through NYRA? [Yes we will. According to BC and NYRA, the 50-cent minimums will be available for the Friday and Saturday BC cards. -SC]
Joe-PA More than 1 year ago
Steve, do you have any thoughts on why the Sprint and Dirt Mile were switched for Saturday? Best I can tell, the field size difference will be one horse. The move takes the Sprint completely out of the Pick 6, yet leaves the Grade II Turf Sprint in the P6 mix. I also can't figure the reason for Friday's switch of races unless they felt folks were in dire need of a F&M Turf/Ladies Classic double.
bob More than 1 year ago
hi steve great work did you know we can't get a drf in nashville anymore your distribtor retired in july
yuwipi More than 1 year ago
For someone like me who begins this exercise by making preliminary long hand notations on each entrant and winds up 10 days later with the DT's trying to finalize more action than I can handle your "cheat sheet" is really quite an amazing creation. Thanks for sharing it with us. Can't think of a better place to say what a great job Mike Welsh does with the workout notes and videos. Outstanding as usual from a sharp observer. Don't want to beat the drums to ramming speed yet but I'm hoping to read about plenty of nice scores from all here next weekend.
hialeah More than 1 year ago
Not to change the subject but, Nice Stuff at $194.00 in the 9th at BEL spells P-6 carry-over. A lot to do in a good way, no?
Mordicai More than 1 year ago
Steve, Kudos on the pre-entry page with all the videos a click away. Somebody finally gets it! All free and no passwords. On first look, Vineyard Haven walks. Looking forward to the Uncle Mo Toscanova matchup.
EA More than 1 year ago
Vineyard Haven walks? Yeah, right. Don't fall for an inflated speed figure earned by an unpressured lone-speed type.
oliver More than 1 year ago
hi Steve- quick question regarding the Juvie turf race- where's Premier Pegasus' name in your entries list? His PP's are available for the race, and I read that Cho entered him - but he is not listed in either your list, nor the entries list at breederscup.com. any ideas? thankss [According to BC, he is already a "vet scratch." -SC]
Brett Clark More than 1 year ago
Love Rose Catherine's chances in the Turf Sprint. A few lengths off the pace, getting weight and can still improve as a 3yo.
Jeff T. More than 1 year ago
Update on your stat charts for pre-entries: I'm quite sure that California Flag won the BC last year and would have to have at least 1 Grade #1 win as a result. [The Turf Sprint was an ungraded race last year and is a G2 this year. -SC]
Dave More than 1 year ago
You mean I can watch TV without having a cable plugged into it? What will they think of next?
birdstone More than 1 year ago
Steve, Flat out phenomenonal work.
Ian Veitch More than 1 year ago
Steve you have a typo. Did you mean 33 3-year old instead of 3 3-year olds? [32 3-year-olds. Fixed it, thanks. -SC]