11/09/2009 6:57PM

BC '09 Afternumbers


Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for the 14 Breeders' Cup races, along with last year's winners and figs and the highest ones recorded in each race since 1991:


The 10-point decline in Conduit's winning figure may seem counterintuitive for a repeat winner, but that's how the times came up. Conduit ran 2:23.42 last year and 2:23.75 this year -- 0.33 seconds slower on a quicker course -- while. for example, Goldikova ran 1.14 seconds faster (132.26 vs. 1:33.40) repeating in the Mile. Much as I admire Presious Passion, Conduit's beating him by half a length was probably a weaker performance than his daylight triumph of a year ago.

The only other grass race that went slower than a year ago was the Juvenile Turf (Pounced in 1:35.47 vs. Donativum in 1:34.68) but this seems due entirely to the bizarrely slow pace this time around -- 1:12.47 vs. 1:10.34 last year. This may be a good race in which to downgrade those nearest the slow pace and upgrade those who closed into it.

--Here are Saturday's commingled-only handle and pool totals, which declined about 6 percent with one fewer Cup race on the program. About a third of the decline, though, came simply from the gate scratch of Quality Road, which caused about $2.4 million in refunds.

tom hughes More than 1 year ago
steve really dissapointed to hear you voting for rach over zen yes she[rach] di some really nice things but theyy were against so weak 3 yr olds the best was just getting good[summer] we in this country find it amazing when 3yroldsgirls beat boys yet it happens a lot but still we make it to be wow.yes she beat older but not such a good group are older handicap horses were weak this year especially but with breeding money will we ever see a great handicap division again probably not. any way zens win was far more accomplished and she won all her races she truely is a great horse and im not one to say that easily i think we hall of fame to many now a days for not enough so again zen is hoy thanks love your stuff keep up the good stuff
diceman More than 1 year ago
In the Classic, my math system had 4 out of 5 Top Finishers. However, I failed to include Twice Over in my Trifecta and 10 Cent Super Plays. This mistake cost me dearly! Steve, since you had Twice Over on Top, I would appreciate your comments on why he was selected. Other bloggers may also want to comment on their Twice Over selection to finish in the Top Four. All was not loss on BC day. I did have the Classic Exacta twice for $2 each with a generous return of $174.80 I had other BC Winners but they are not relevant to this discussion. Over all, the BC races were very profitable!
Virgin Queen More than 1 year ago
"of course,u could avoid all the inevitable dirt v synthetics and east v west arguments, by giving hoy to sea the stars,much the most appropriate chice." sry, but here in the states we like 2 duke things out,just like our fore fathers did a little over 200 yrs ago.
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
Sherpaguide: The reason I set up the schedule the way I did for a nighttime BC are twofold: The timeslots as set up are more about ESPN and ABC. Having the BC air from 6:45-10:30 on ESPN, in between two telecasts on ABC (from 5:30-6:45 and 10:30-11:30 PM ET) have everything to do with having a Pac-10 game for ESPN's Saturday Primetime game, which would be airing in the 10:30 PM ET slot on ESPN. I don't see the Pac-10 going for an 11:00 or 11:30 PM ET kickoff, but since the Pac-10 routinely has 10:15 PM ET (7:15 PM local time) starts for night games, I can't see the Pac-10 being upset if they have to start at 7:30 PM local time for a game on ESPN. The windows as set up also assure ABC stations of getting their late local news at 11:30 PM ET, which is the normal scheduled start time on Saturdays from September-early December following whatever sporting event is on ABC that Saturday night. Saturday night TV ratings, aside from sports, are an absolute joke these days. There is a reason ABC has sports on Saturday nights in the fall, and it's because practically nothing else even does decently. That's why I think ABC would do a one week-only movearound of college football, especially if being paid through the nose by BC Ltd. to have the BC air that way since I think the BC would more than make up any fees to Disney in that scenario from a massive handle increase thanks to new dollars from the Asia-Pacific region. And another thing: If the BC went back to NBC, I suspect now NBC would do it with Notre Dame Football moved up to 1:00 PM ET (especially if ND is playing a weak opponent that gets weak ratings) and the BC airing from 4:30-11:00 PM ET on Saturday, with the Friday telecast likely split between USA Network, airing there from 8:00-10:00 PM ET and NBC, airing in place of Jay Leno for that night only from 10:00-11:00 PM ET/7:00-8:00 PM PT. Given the BC would probably do better for NBC from a demo standpoint in prime time on Saturday than anything else (which is more an indictment on NBC's Saturday night programming), I suspect now NBC would go for that.
robert ginnerty More than 1 year ago
Steve, I have a suggestion for those of us interested in statistics. Please post a Sheet 2 with the median Beyer Speed Figure for 1991-2007. It might make for a more interesting comparison to 2008 and 2009. Seventeen runnings should supply a valid number.
george quinn More than 1 year ago
I truly think Rachel is the pick because the owners were much more ambitious with her. Quite frankly she never benefitted from "home cookin" very much. Hat's off to both but I vote Rachel. George in Tampa
SherpaGuide More than 1 year ago
Walt, I like your ideas but ABC is not moving around its' college football lineup for horseracing period. A few days later and word has come out about how seriously Quality Road was affected by that gate fiasco. Poor thing is a mental mess not to mention all the physical damage. They could not even get him to load the plane to go home so now he is vanning cross country back to Belmont. That attempt to load was disturbing and I was yelling at the tv to scratch the horse before he ruined the Classic...then they throw a blindfold on him and almost lose him, what a disaster that would have been! That gate crew did a horrible job and in any other sport there would be an investigation, fines and/or reprimand but not here I'm sure.
Bernard Downes More than 1 year ago
I would not dare to intrude on your Horse of the Year debate - that is clearly and rightly a US only subject. However, can I be bold enough to suggest that one point should be factored out, or at least given more objective consideration. This whole amazement at 'the girls beating the boys' is a total red herring as we would say in the UK. There is absolutely no reason why a filly or mare receiving the appropriate weight allowance should not beat their male counterparts. The fact that it doesn't happen more often in the US is surely more a reflection of the timidity of the owners and trainers, than the racing ability of the fillies and mares. Of course, you could avoid all the inevitable dirt v synthetics and east v west arguments, by giving Horse of the Year to Sea The Stars. Much the most appropriate choice. Regards - Bernard
Seeking the Gold More than 1 year ago
Steve, are the pick six pools here at aqueduct a lot lower than past years? I thought I remembered even in the dead of winter getting 20k in the pools. Just curious.
RichP More than 1 year ago
Zenyatta numbers prior to the breeders cup prove again that synth beyer's are not any where near as predictive as dirt beyers. For the same reson that turf beyers are not anywhere near as predictive. A slow enough pace early effects final time. Since beyers are based on final time the figure for most synth or turf races races is frequently depressed. If you want to compare synth beyers to dirt beyeres you have to add pace into the mix. In 90+% of dirt races the pace is normal enough not to effect the final time. It will tilt the race toward or against front runners but it isn't usuually slow enough to effect final time. This is not true of turf races or synthetic races. So to me no straight comparison works.