10/16/2013 1:32PM

Bakken

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Chad Brown was high on BAKKEN's potential leading into the 2012 Saratoga meeting. 

The juvenile colt breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.23 over the main track on July 10 and seemed primed for a race early in the session. 

The best laid plans...

Following a gate work on July 17, Bakken went to the sidelines for over a year.  He returned to the tab in mid-July and began a steady stream of breezes for his debut, a belated 3-year-old unveiling, at Belmont on October 13. 

It was worth the wait. 

The $450,000 yearling, a half-brother to Grade 2 stakes-winners Justwhistledixie and Chace City, zipped right to the front under Javier Castellano, carved out fractions of 22.31 and 44.94 over the speed-favoring track, and poured it on under a hand ride to win by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:08.46.  Bakken received a 96 Beyer Speed Figure and looks headed for sprint stakes races.

*Think the seventh race at Keeneland on October 12 may turn out to be a good one.  First-time starter KALA RYAN was working very well and showed good early speed under Rosie Napravnik.  She scooted clear in upper stretch and appeared on her way to victory only to be run down by a game, but green, AURELIA'S BELLE.  Ridden by Channing Hill, Aurelia's Belle showed no quit despite racing on her left lead and validated her favored status in her debut.  PLACE CARD came with a good late run for third.

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (10/7/13 - 10/13/13)

1. THE PIZZA MAN - 100 - Robert F. Carey Memorial Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Hawthorne
1. WINILISCIOUS - 100 - Alw 8000s - 1 1/16 Miles - Laurel
1. ZA APPROVAL - 100 - Knickerbocker Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
4. VOODOO STORM - 99 - Alw 37100NC - 1 Mile - Mountaineer
5. GEEKY GORGEOUS - 98 - Cornucopia Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Parx
5. PIANIST - 98 - Athenia Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
7. SALTO (Ire) - 97 - Alw 39250NC - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
8. BAKKEN - 96 - Md Sp Wt 80k - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
8. CHAPMAN - 96 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Belmont
10. ATTRACTIVE RIDE - 95 - OC 32k/N3X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Laurel
10. KITTEN'S DUMPLINGS - 95 - Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Keeneland
12. PHIL'S DREAM - 94 - Nearctic Stakes (G1-C) - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Woodbine
12. PURPLE EGG - 94 - Barbaro STakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Delaware
12. WINCHILL - 94 - First Responder Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Parx
15. MOON PHILLY - 93 - Justakiss Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Delaware
15. WARREN'S VENEDA - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
17. BLACK KARMA - 92 - Alw 23800N2L - 6 Furlongs - Calder
17. CAT BURGLAR - 92 - Md Sp Wt 49k - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
17. CEASE - 92 - OC 62k/N2X - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
17. CONFRONTATION - 92 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Belmont
17. GUAM TYPHOON - 92 - OC 70k/N1Y -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Laurel
17. QIAONA - 92 - California Distaff Handicap - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
17. SILVER WINGS - 92 - Clm 12500(12.5-10.5) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
24. BLAMESHIFTER - 91 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
24. CALMER THAN YOU - 91 - OC 35k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
24. CHELSEA BROOK - 91 - OC12k/SAL10k - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Calder
24. DOOR'S OPEN - 91 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
24. FAMILY ICON - 91 - Alw 30000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
24. HAVERHILL - 91 - OC16k/SAL16k - 6 Furlongs - Belmont

*The lifetime past performances for the three top Beyer earners are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***


Hi Dan, I'm not sure I should be asking this here, but I'm new to handicapping and I'm hoping that you might give me some advice on how to best go about it. I live in Ireland so my interest is in Turf handicapping, but I have no idea as to how one is supposed to go about handicapping a turf race. I hope you will kindly give me some pointers as my own efforts have proven dismal so far. All the best, Tony


Tony,
Welcome and thanks for reading!  My advice is to practice, practice, practice and don't get discouraged if the short-term results aren't ideal.  Give our HandiGambling exercises a try and utilize the free DRF "Race of the Day" past performances on our homepage. 

Decide what you're looking for in a contender. 

Do you put stock in speed figures? 
Some handicappers use Beyer Speed Figures as a guide to isolate the contenders (the faster horses) from the pretenders (the slower ones).

Pace analysis? 
Who will be on the lead?  Will the pace be quick enough to give the late-runners a fair chance? 

Trainer statistics? 
Do certain barns win in certain situations? 

Pedigree? 
Is the horse bred for the surface/distance? 

Race replays?
Did the horse have hidden trouble that the chartcaller missed?

Make notes after the race is over.  What were the "positives" that the winner had in his corner?  Do similar positive traits jump out race after race after race. 

Please read the comments from our posters and ask questions.  We're truly blessed to have some exceptional handicappers on the blog and they will give you plenty of ideas to consider. 
 
Hope this helps a bit.

***

Dan,
Last week I read about the "Past Posting" here on the DRF. I'm not so naive to think that cheating doesn't happen. However, have you heard anything further about this fiasco ? Between the lip service given to lowering the Take-out & now this excuse of past posting, is this gonna get swept under the rug too ? Did they catch the Banditos ? What track{s} was the culptrit{s} ? Or, is everybody going to plead the 5th ? Does anybody know which hand is their left ? Anything you can add would be appreciated.
Curt V.

I haven't heard anything new on the past posting incident that occurred at a thoroughbred track about a month ago.  On the face of it, one of the sites in the simulcast network didn't recognize the "stop wagering" command that's supposed to cut off bets.  If I find out more, I'll let you know.

***

When you get the chance, you're definitely going to want to check out "RACEHORSE," the latest production from Jessica Pacheco, racing analyst at Arlington Park.

"It's the end of the summer, and Crown and Thistle Stables hope for a firm turf course for Sugar Kate's last race of the 2013 Arlington meet. Then catch up with all the owners in the season finale of RACEHORSE! Get an update on the whereabouts of Magna Fortuna "Taxi", party with the Rabbits, and get some ownership advice from the RACEHORSE cast."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-Z1-uGxzeA

The entire series, Episodes 1-9, can be found here:

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/newsvideosblogs/racehorse-video-series


***

Congrats to Ed Kay for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling contest.

Rick M's HandiGambling scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Ed selects Friday's 9th race at Belmont for this week's event.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***

I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
Thank You!
Rick

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

Best of luck to all.

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TOP 3 Beyers.pdf80.05 KB
Copy of Formblog SA Downhill Turf 10-11-13.xls67.5 KB
HGBELTURF.pdf198.11 KB