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Have fallen way behind (of course) so this blog entry will be dedicated to your questions, comments, and past performance requests over the last week.
I'll put up the Beyer chart from last week in the next entry.
If Lookin' At Lucky and Conveyance are both going to work tomorrow where does that put their final Derby work, Tuesday? Wednesday? Is this normal? Last year Pioneerof The Nile worked on the Monday of Derby week, so this schedule is a departure from that timeline, it appears.
Would you please post the PP's for the 2007 Kentucky Derby?
I was watching the gallop by Conveyance on Sunday at the Kentucky Derby website and he was galloping awfully quickly. I was wondering what the threshold is before a horses' gallop turns into a timed and recorded work. Is it the clocker's call, the trainer's call or is there a strict time threshold?
Lookin At Lucky put in his final drill for the Derby Monday morning. The likely favorite breezed the bullet for five-eighths in 1:00.80 over muddy going.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in a bullet 59.80 this (Tuesday) morning.
Baffert breezed all three of his prior Kentucky Derby winners four days before the race. Real Quiet worked a bullet five furlongs in 59.20. Silver Charm breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.60. War Emblem worked five-eighths in 1:00.40.
I'd guess it's the clocker's Call when the workout begins.
Here's the 2007 Derby:
Dan, so much focus is put on past Derby winners. I like to play the trifecta. Will you please post the pp's for the 2nd and 3rd place Derby finishers from the past 5 years?
Dan, will you please post the Derby pick 4 payouts for the past 5 years along with the Derby trifecta payouts. This will go a long way in determaning which bet I'll throw most of my money at. Will you please post the pp's for the winners of the Derby pick 4 races from the past 2 years? Thanks so much.
Here are the Derby runner-ups over the last five years:
Dan's probably swamped and I'm bored so for whoever asked about tri/p4 prices for the past 5 years (couldn't find the post) here goes: (all tris are $2)
pk4(I think this is a 50cent price) $5806, $10,221 (Remember the Derby is part of 2 pick fours which can really be nice if you have a nice price horse in the derby)
08 (from here on back both p4 and tri prices are $2)
p4 $1543.80, $2493.80
p4 $164,168.60, $226,979.20
Here are the Pick 4 winners on Derby Day over the past two years (please note that Einstein won the third leg both years):
Was the Derby ever won, by a horse out of Storm Cat? I don't think so, but i could be wrong?
The great stallion, Storm Cat, has not sired a Kentucky Derby winner.
Can DRF somehow incorporate these old Beyers from the late 80s-early 90s when available into the PPs? I assume Beyer "owns" them - why wouldn't he want them published?
Alan, you had lunch with the man and you didn't ask him yourself :)
It's interesting, but the American Racing Manual sometimes gives pre-1992 Beyers in the "Histories of Graded Stakes Events" section.
For example, they list winning Breeders' Cup Beyer Speed Figures since 1990.
Dan the Omnipotent,
How is it possible that your wealth of knowledge extends to the obscurity of the Orioles bullpen? I'm speechless. Does this mean you're a Yankee fan? If so, I may need to reevaluate my life.
I'm more a general fan of sport than of a particular team although I have to admit that I won't root against the Yankees. It's all the benefits of a Liberal Arts education. I know philosophy, art, literature, history, sports, just about anything that can't pay me a dime. The only thing I haven't figured out yet, at least for 2010, is to pick a winner at the track. The education continues...
As I sit here and write this, it occurs to me that it might be worthwhile to look into how often American trainers add blinkers to the European horses they get, especially specialists like Clemente, Mott, Canani, etc., and how well they do when they make the change... there's always one more project, isn't there?
Last Five Years, Foreign Shippers, 1st time Blinkers
Bill Mott - 0-0
Julio Canani - 4-11 (36%, $3.29 ROI)
Don't have anything for Clement right now, but I'll post when I get the chance. Let me know if you have any other trainers you're watching for this stat.
Dan, would you please post the pp'sfor the tough sprinter "Good and Tough" who I think earned around $900,000. Also the pp's on theracemare "Rainmom".
Here they are:
What's your feeling on Dean's Kitten? Looking at his running lines, he's not that far off Paddy O'Prado, and will likely get completely overlooked based on the horrid dirt race against Esky. But his beyers on on an upward swing and he seems to have the ability to close. I'm wondering what Kitten's Joy's stats are with dirt routers.
His ability to rally from off the pace should work in his favor considering the considerable amount of speed entered for the Derby. He's also in improving form and the price should be right. Personally, I don't like him as he seems like more of a turf/synthetic horse than a dirt runner.
Besides Dean's Kitten, Kitten's Joy has sired route stakes-winners Kera's Kitten (polytrack), Lisa's Kitten (grass), and William's Kitten (dirt). The sample size is still small but, considering Kitten's Joy's race record and pedigree, he will do better with routers on the grass.
Hello. I went to Saratoga on 2005 and hit a very juicy Late Pick4. I think it was the weekend of August 25th. Is there any way you can recover those PPs, from Thursday to Sunday? It will be great for me to have those as a souvenir.
Dan - you will only need give Ivan the Friday August 26 pps, I believe.
I don't have access to the past performances, but here are the charts for your nice score:
Old Friends is a terrific charity. In case you missed it, Michael Blowen is attempting to BUY Zippy Chippy to bring to the NY branch. He has never bought a horse, but apparently the owner/trainer Felix "Something I can't spell" hates to part with the horse......that blew my mind.
Can you post pp's for the following:
Distinguished Gentleman (1991)
Exploding Glass (1993)
Northern Jarrett (1998)
Knight Club (1998)
thank you so much
I don't have past performances for Distinguished Gentleman and Northern Jarrett. Here are the rest:
Would you please post the dosage info on the Derby contenders. Thanks.
Dosage Profile: 6-3-7-0-0 (16)
Dosage Index: 3.57
Center of Distribution: 0.94
Dosage Profile: 15-3-14-0-0 (32)
Dosage Index: 3.57
Center of Distribution: 1.03
Dosage Profile: 6-2-7-1-0 (16)
Dosage Index: 2.56
Center of Distribution: 0.81
Dosage Profile: 4-1-3-0-0 (8)
Dosage Index: 4.33
Center of Distribution: 1.13
Dosage Profile: 2-1-9-2-0 (14)
Dosage Index: 1.15
Center of Distribution: 0.21
Devil May Care
Dosage Profile: 7-6-17-0-0 (30)
Dosage Index: 2.53
Center of Distribution: 0.67
Dosage Profile: 8-8-15-0-1 (32)
Dosage Index: 2.76
Center of Distribution: 0.69
Dosage Profile: 3-1-6-0-0 (10)
Dosage Index: 2.33
Center of Distribution: 0.70
Dosage Profile: 7-7-13-0-1 (28)
Dosage Index: 2.73
Center of Distribution: 0.68
Dosage Profile: 6-3-4-0-1 (14)
Dosage Index: 3.67
Center of Distribution: 0.93
Dosage Profile: 7-6-11-0-0 (24)
Dosage Index: 3.36
Center of Distribution: 0.83
Dosage Profile: 12-13-15-2-2 (44)
Dosage Index: 2.83
Center of Distribution: 0.70
Dosage Profile: 9-4-5-0-0 (18)
Dosage Index: 6.20
Center of Distribution: 1.22
Line of David:
Dosage Profile: 7-1-8-0-0 (16)
Dosage Index: 3.00
Center of Distribution: 0.94
Lookin At Lucky:
Dosage Profile: 10-4-12-0-0 (26)
Dosage Index: 3.33
Center of Distribution: 0.92
Dosage Profile: 7-12-7-0-2 (28)
Dosage Index: 4.09
Center of Distribution: 0.79
Dosage Profile: 11-4-7-2-0 (24)
Dosage Index: 3.36
Center of Distribution: 1.00
Dosage Profile: 2-4-12-4-0 (22)
Dosage Index: 1.20
Center of Distribution: 0.18
Dosage Profile: 2-2-5-1-0 (10)
Dosage Index: 1.86
Center of Distribution: 0.50
Dosage Profile: 3-2-11-0-0 (16)
Dosage Index: 1.91
Center of Distribution: 0.50
Dosage Profile: 7-7-14-0-0 (28)
Dosage Index: 3.00
Center of Distribution: 0.75
"An intelligent, warm interacting, layback, HANDSOME, & intellectual type..."
Geeze Dan, I am beginning to wonder if you are the svengali handicapper.
All I ever got was "gee it's fun to steal track with you... Wait, there's Matt Carrothers, MATT, MATT, God is he cute"
Carothers isn't in my league. He has a CI (Cuteness Index) way over 4.00. :)
He probably picks more winners than I do, however.
Dan (and everyone) Just some questions that I kind of wonder what others think about: It seems like a lot of people (especially "experts") put a lot of stock in the trainer as far as angles, etc. There are basically 3 factors in a race: horse, trainer, jockey. What % of significance do you put in each. (I'll start 70% horse, 20% trainer, 10% jock)
Also, regarding Beyers/Brisnet figures, do you put more significance in the beyers or bris numbers. (I know Dan has to say Beyers if he wants to have a job!)
On an entirely different (and more public) topic: Have you ever been to the new Arlington Park. I know that Steve Davidowitz and Alan Shuback have been there "hawking" their books and talking racing and handicapping and with the following you have in Chicago, it could be a lot of fun. (And after your double-secret...etc. project, you deserve a vacation!)
I try to live by the old maxim, "It's horse racing, not trainer racing." If I had to break down percentages, I'd say it's 85% horse, 10% trainer, 5% jockey.
I couldn't compare the two speed figures because I've never used Brisnet.
The Arlington trip sounds like a very, very, very good idea. I think I'm going to propose it to the powers that be. Even if they don't endorse it, I may head on over to Chi-Town with my vacation time.
Hello all. I wonder if anyone can help me with this question - I'm from the U.K and don't really know how this works in U.S racing. U.K bookies are offering huge odds on Winslow Homer to win the Derby. I know he's been injured and is likely to miss the race, and you DON'T get your money back if he doesn't make it to the gate. He has enough earnings to get in if hes fit though, and I think it may be worth chancing a few quid on. However, last time I looked at the derby entries he wasn't amoungst them. Supposing he made a miraculous recovery, could the trainer do a U-turn and re-enter him, or is he definiteley out of it now? Cheers for reading.
Welcome to FormBlog. Winslow Homer should have HUGE odds to RUN in the Kentucky Derby (~1000/1) let alone actually win the Kentucky Derby. Even if he were to run (which of course he won't) he would have virtually no chance to win it. I hope you save your money for a bet on a colt that will actually be running. Good luck to you bloke!
Dan or Anyone
In looking at the PP's for this weekend, the old 2 sprints to a route stat popped up a number of times. My question-are there any empirical studies that demonstrate the usefullness of this stat.
Not sure how Candy Rides do first on turf, but I'm probably going to pay to find out. For a change, a very nice card at GGF tomorrow.
I wonder if this stat has as much relevance as it perhaps had in the past. The thinking, theoretically, would be that a route horse, sometimes returning from a layoff, would be legged up a couple of times in sprint races before being asked to go his best distance. It seems as if training methods have changed where horses aren't generally "prepping" for other races down the road as much as in years past. That's just my opinion, I may be totally off-base on that. The DRF trainer stats will mention two sprints to a route statistics.
Going into that race, Candy Ride was 8-58 with first-time turf runners.
There's been alot of mention of Super Saver lately, but why hasn't he worked since his April 10th race? He should have worked by now, shouldn't he?
Super Saver finally breezed a half-mile in 48.80 at Churchill Downs on April 24.
His pedigree as it appears to this completely novice eye suggests that 10 furlongs is within his range, no? His sire, El Prado, is the sire of Medaglia d’Oro. El Prado is a Group I winner at 12 furlongs from what I recall.
Question for you, though...when you sit down to handicap a race, are you using the "fishwrap" (tabloid-style paper) or printed sheets? I'm curious, because I find it more difficult to use the wrap, but I have been printing my sheets for many, many years.
El Prado has been a very versatile stallion, but he only won at distances between six furlongs and one mile.
I use the Formulator Web lifetime past performance printouts.
A couple of friends in London will be attending their first race meet at Kempton Park on May 3 (bank holiday!) and their named race (Yes, another group of Sherlock Holmes fans)goes off at 3 pm.
Can you tell me please where I can find the entries for that course, and do you have any insight as to the horses/jocks/trainers there?
Any that are currently hot?
Any good angles to play?
Katie, head over to www.racingpost.co.uk and click on "Cards" for racing information and statistics. In Alan Shuback's excellent work, Global Racing, he describes Kempton Park as a "level, right-handed Polytrack oval 1 1/4 miles in length. This course is used for races at six furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile, 1 3/8 miles, 1 1/2 miles, and 2 miles. A six-furlong inner Polytrack course is used for races of five furlongs and 1 1/4 miles. As a dual-purpose track, Kempton also has a turf course used for hurdle and steeplechase racing. It is a level, 1 5/8 miles triangular course and lies outside the Polytrack course...Conditioners with experience in America, such as John Gosden and Jeremy Noseda, as well as Clive Brittain, Richard Hannon, Ed Dunlop, Brian Meehan, Barry Hills, and Mark Johnston, do not hesitate to run horses in the better Polytrack maidens and allowances, most of which are run on the southern artificial surfaces at Kempton and Lingfield. Most of Kempton's races, however, are handicaps of dubious reputation. In trying to gauge the quality of British imports that have run at Kempton, it is important to remember that handicaps there worth less than $20,000 rate among the weakest races in Britain..."
Hi Dan, my first time posting here so I'm not sure if I'm in the right place.I was interested in finding out what happened to a horse named B Trick who ran against the 2005 Derby favorite and the 2nd and 3ed place finishers in the Derby in his first 3 starts. Thank you
B Trick reportedly is standing stud for a $1,000 stud fee at Hilltop Farm in Virginia.
I know sometimes this blog is a giant pain in the Stronach, but YOU are the horse for this course. Here are the stats for the four blogs at DRF for April:
Randy Moss (27) - 1%
Hay Hovdey (143) - 4%
Steve Crist (227) - 7%
Dan Illman (2,787) - 88%
If only I got paid by the post!
Could you give us DEVIL MAY CARE'S PPs. I suppose I will have to look at her now. :)
Here they are:
More next time.
Dan here are my plays for the 5th at wood. $20 ex. 14/1,4,9 $10 tri. 14/1,4,9,/10 $10 win #14 looked like a real speed bias that nite and she run well but didn't make up any ground, have to like the drop but the post is a big ? Thanks...steve d.
I have already posted my HG wagers. Here are my tiny little real $$$ wagers which of course are less than the HG wagers but also vary slightly in content: I am using the following horses: 16 - Awesome Act (my MKB horse) 20 - Sydney's Candy 4 - Super Saver 1 - Lookin for Lucky 7 - American Lion (upset special) 2 - Ice Box $1 ex bx 16/1,4,7,20 ($8) $1 ex bx 20/1,4,7 ($6) $1 tri bx 4,7,16 ($6) $3 win 7 $3) and since my wife picked Nobel's Promise: $1 ex bx 3,16 ($2) plus I have a $5 future pool 3 bet on 16 Awesome Act at 13 to 1. Good luck to all !!! Dick W
Van Savant, As long as Moss doesn't go blabbering about him on national TV we should be in the clear. I suspect the Victor will be no less than 20-1, even in spite of the "hype". Of course, the track seems destined to come up like a bath, and that just adds another question mark to his status. Even so, regardless of the track's condition, my instincts tell me he will be as professional as his name.
Tinky, Thanx for the compliment resident "Know It". It's certainly understandable. I wonder why it doesn't surprise any, having seen your track record. Making friends & influencing people, isn't a book you have read. Obviously..
KYL Syndicate Will list my "Wagers of the Day" during Belmont's Meet and on races around the country and will track how I'm doing: Friday's Wagers of the Day Belmont Park Race 6: MR. UNSTOPPABLE Enrique Arroyo must have thought he made a bad claim on MR. UNSTOPPABLE three back as he was eased. But in the two races since the claim, MR. UNSTOPPABLE has recapture some of his old form with nice rally in the stretch resulting in a 4th and then a 1st. Faced better in the two recent sprint races where he was competitive and has run well at the 1 mile distance in the past. Will be closer to the pace, likely sitting right behind the stretch out speed of the 3 and 5 who hopefully will hook up with the favorite the 6. Will make his winning move approaching the stretch. Wager Amount 265: 50 Win 1 ; 20 Exacta 1/2-5-9 ; 1 Super 1/2-5-9-10-4 ; 1 Triple 1/2-5-9-10-4 ; 1 Pick 4 1/1-2-3-5-7/3-4-6/1-3-7-8-9 Churchill Downs Race 9: COOL COAL MAN Has run some huge races and then run others that leaves you scratching your head. Although the 2 has shown speed in both his starts this year, those were in small fields where no one else wanted the lead. Expect Lezcano to send COOL COAL MAN out early to establish the early lead, and the closes pursuer will be the 2 early, but the easy lead will provide a breather down the backstretch and a wire to wire victory. Wager Amount 170: 50 Win 4 ; 20 Exacta 4/3-6-8 ; 5 Super 4/3-6-8 ; 5 Triple 4/3-6-8 ; 10 Pick 3 4/5-1-10/1 Churchill Downs Race 11: IT'S TEA TIME No doubt Blind Luck is the deserving favorite with 6 career wins in 9 starts, but will look for the upset with IT'S TEA TIME. What's interesting about the selection and the odds on favorite is that both fillies have the same running style where they linger at the back of the pack and then in the stretch, a stride or two, they unleash their strong turn of foot. As IT'S TEA TIME is drawn on the rail, the hope is that Garcia asks for some speed early to assume a stalking trip right behind the early leaders. This provides a tactical advantage but in addition, he must ask early or risk being blocked while Gomez sends Blind Luck on the outside. An aggressive ride by Garcia will make the difference. Wager Amount 206: 50 Win 1 ; 25 Exacta Box 1-5 ; 10 Exacta 1/5-6-11 ; 3 Triple 1/5-6-11 ; 3 Super 1/5-6-11 ; 20 Oaks/Derby Double 1-16 ; 20 Pick 3 Oaks/Woodford/Derby 1/9/16 As I'll be wagering the full card on Friday, here's my full card selection for Belmont. As the card is very difficult, my strategy will be to make 1 triple box and 1 super box in each race. Race 1: 6-1-7-4-8 Competitive field and begin with eliminating the horses who I believe will be out of the exotics. 3 is way outclass ; 2 set slow fractions on the speed favoring inner track and still could not win, much faster pace going a mile ; 5 looks to be using this race as a prep race as one mile is not his ideal distance. This leaves the 1, 4, 6, 7, 8 and the play here is to do a 1 dollar superfecta box and hope the 1, 4 or 6 claim two out of the three top spots. 8 is the speed but remember those were on the inner track and now he faces older going a one turn mile. Actually expect pace pressure from the 2 and even the 7. The 7 looked super in his maiden win but has gate problems and thus no idea what his best racing style is. As both the 7 and 8 made their debuts only a few months back and are the listed two favorites, they can be beat. Race 2: 5-8-3-4-7 Begin by eliminating the non-contenders. 2 is from the Clement barn but was not strongly bet in his debut, his numbers have not been fast and returns in a maiden claimer. 1 is too slow. 6 is the second choice but will throw him out of the exotics as I did not like his last start. Gulfstream turf favored speed this past meet and the 6 set comfortable fractions on the front end but faulted badly in the stretch. Eliminating the second choice can lead to a profitable superfecta score and I like the 5 to be in the money as he ran in spots last out and with pace duel expected from the two choices, Prado should sit a good trip and help the superfecta payouts. Race 3: 1-2-7-5-3 No opinion on this race. Hoping the 1A gets scratched and will watch the early money on the 1. Love when Jerkens has a first time starter that has 6f and 7f workouts, and then makes debut stretching out in distance. Race 4: 10-1-4-8-2 3 and 7 are too slow ; 5 has gone downhill in her form and claimed by low percentage trainer ; 6 has speed but recent numbers are slow ; 9 has gaps with 3 races, followed by 3 month layoff, 3 races and now another 2 month layoff. The 4 and 10 have a big edge in this race but look for a surprise run by the 1 and have the 2 and 8 come late at big odds to help the super. Race 5: 7-6-5-10-2 1, 4, 9 are too slow. More importantly, I do not like the morning line favorite, the 8 one bit. Broke his maiden on the turf last out but the turf at Aqueduct favored speed, and this horse set slow fractions and was staggering badly in the stretch but luckily the horse he was running against were even worse. A lot more speed in here, in particular from the 3 who I am tossing as well. The 7 will have a great trip sitting behind the dueling leaders and will be rooting for the 5 and 6 to close late at big odds. Race 6: LISTED PLAY POSTED ABOVE Race 7: 3-7-5-1-2 Very little opinion on this race Race 8: 3-6-4-5-8 Great race with the 6 obviously the one to beat having the best numbers, faced better and loves the mile distance. The upstart in the 4 who has looked spectacular winning his first two starts and the ultra consistent 3 who is a pro having ran 24 times last year and is already making his 8th start this year. With some stretch out sprinters, a few horses coming off extensive layoffs who will likely be too fresh and helping insure a quick pace. Hoping Luzzi lopes along in the back of the pack and let the speed fight it out on the front end. As the 4 and 6 make their move on the turn, hoping the 3 is unleashed in the stretch and surprises the field. Race 9: 1-3-7-8-9 Very little opinion on this race Churchill Downs Selections Race 4: 3-4-5-6-8 Race 5: 2-3-4-11-1 SUSIES GAL is an interesting longshot at morning line odds of 15-1 as she will have the early lead and if she gets brave can take the field wire to wire. Race 6: 4 Personally did not like Rachel Alexandra's first start earlier this year and I know the talk is that she has look good in her recent start, but this is a better field than she faced last time and ZARDANA that beat her last time is back for the rematch. It will be good for racing if Rachel is back in form as the talk of facing Zenyatta down the road can start again, but as I said, her last race was very disappointing and even if she was 75%, last year Rachel at 50% would still have beaten the field. Race 7: 2-1-9-7-6 Handicapping angle learned last year is with two year old races, if a filly is entered vs the boys, the filly tends to do very well as they are more develop early. The three favorites are all fillies but will side with the 2 who is one of the few babies that actually won a race from off the pace which is rare at the short distance. Race 8: 2-6-7-3-11 Lots of speed lined up in here and hopefully all the speed breaks well and hook up from the get go. Sitting off the pace and providing a strong finishing kick will be PERFECT OFFICER at morning line odds of 15-1. Race 9: LISTED PLAY POSTED ABOVE Race 10: 5-1-4-7-10 Race 11: LISTED PLAY POSTED ABOVE
HDG: I was loving Eskendereya in the futures (which now seems so long ago), but time to move on. I think Sidney's Candy can win this stalking the pace. I am also one of those that likes Super Saver. Calvin certainly does not hurt his chances IMO. He has been training great lately. Yes, he had every chance to win the Arkansas Derby, but what if he was not fully cranked for that race (only his second race of the year)? If (yes I know it is a BIG if) he improves a little, I also think he can win from a stalking spot near the rail. I will throw out LAL (HATE his post position for his running style and affinity for finding trouble). Throw in a few others (including 2 more Pletcher's) for the exacta. The bet: $10 EX PW: 4-20 / 4-6-7-10-14-20 Good luck all!! Dale
Zenyatta vs. Her own mirror image from a parallel universe. I new I could find a match for Zenyatta. I predict a Dead-Heat.
HG 183: I am going to play what I posted earlier..but just in Triple form. $2 Triple key: 11/13 over 1,5,11,12,13,14,16,18 over 1,5,11,12,13,14,16,18 this bet is $80 then I'll take a few flyers: $1 Triple box: 11/13/18 11/13/1 11/13/13 then $2 win on 13 total $100 good luck to all!
Zenyatta vs. Mickey Mantle from home to first?
TBTA, Yes, I've posted that before. I tried to find the previous posting but couldn't. Nonetheless, given that the big misconception continues with so many and the fact that a possible favorite drew into #20, I thought it was worthwhile to reset the case. I'll have this ready to cut and paste for next year so I don't have to rewrite it... :)