04/27/2010 6:12PM

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Have fallen way behind (of course) so this blog entry will be dedicated to your questions, comments, and past performance requests over the last week. 

I'll put up the Beyer chart from last week in the next entry.


If Lookin' At Lucky and Conveyance are both going to work tomorrow where does that put their final Derby work, Tuesday? Wednesday?  Is this normal?  Last year Pioneerof The Nile worked on the Monday of Derby week, so this schedule is a departure from that timeline, it appears. 

Dan,
Would you please post the PP's for the 2007 Kentucky Derby?
Wilson

Dan,
I was watching the gallop by Conveyance on Sunday at the Kentucky Derby website and he was galloping awfully quickly.  I was wondering what the threshold is before a horses' gallop turns into a timed and recorded work.  Is it the clocker's call, the trainer's call or is there a strict time threshold?

Lookin At Lucky put in his final drill for the Derby Monday morning.  The likely favorite breezed the bullet for five-eighths in 1:00.80 over muddy going. 
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in a bullet 59.80 this (Tuesday) morning.

Baffert breezed all three of his prior Kentucky Derby winners four days before the race. Real Quiet worked a bullet five furlongs in 59.20.  Silver Charm breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.60.  War Emblem worked five-eighths in 1:00.40.

I'd guess it's the clocker's Call when the workout begins.

Here's the 2007 Derby:

Download 2007 Derby

 

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Dan, so much focus is put on past Derby winners.  I like to play the trifecta.  Will you please post the pp's for the 2nd and 3rd place Derby finishers from the past 5 years?

Dan, will you please post the Derby pick 4 payouts for the past 5 years along with the Derby trifecta payouts.  This will go a long way in determaning which bet I'll throw most of my money at.  Will you please post the pp's for the winners of the Derby pick 4 races from the past 2 years?  Thanks so much.
Captain Bodgit


Here are the Derby runner-ups over the last five years:

Download CloseNoCigar

Dan's probably swamped and I'm bored so for whoever asked about tri/p4 prices for the past 5 years (couldn't find the post) here goes: (all tris are $2)
09-Tri, 41,500.60
pk4(I think this is a 50cent price) $5806, $10,221 (Remember the Derby is part of 2 pick fours which can really be nice if you have a nice price horse in the derby)
08 (from here on back both p4 and tri prices are $2)
tri: $3445.60
p4-$14,765.60, $594.20
07-Tri-$440.00
p4-$4783.40, $2150.60
06-Tri-$11,418.60
p4 $1543.80, $2493.80
05-Tri-$133,134.80
p4 $164,168.60, $226,979.20
Stephen Taylor

Here are the Pick 4 winners on Derby Day over the past two years (please note that Einstein won the third leg both years):

Download Pick 4 winners

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DAN,
Was the Derby ever won, by a horse out of Storm Cat? I don't think so, but i could be wrong?
tom

The great stallion, Storm Cat, has not sired a Kentucky Derby winner. 

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Can DRF somehow incorporate these old Beyers from the late 80s-early 90s when available into the PPs?  I assume Beyer "owns" them - why wouldn't he want them published?
Alan

Alan, you had lunch with the man and you didn't ask him yourself  :)

It's interesting, but the American Racing Manual sometimes gives pre-1992 Beyers in the "Histories of Graded Stakes Events" section. 

For example, they list winning Breeders' Cup Beyer Speed Figures since 1990. 

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Dan the Omnipotent,
How is it possible that your wealth of knowledge extends to the obscurity of the Orioles bullpen? I'm speechless. Does this mean you're a Yankee fan? If so, I may need to reevaluate my life.
TheVanGogh

I'm more a general fan of sport than of a particular team although I have to admit that I won't root against the Yankees.  It's all the benefits of a Liberal Arts education.  I know philosophy, art, literature, history, sports, just about anything that can't pay me a dime.  The only thing I haven't figured out yet, at least for 2010, is to pick a winner at the track.  The education continues...

***

As I sit here and write this, it occurs to me that it might be worthwhile to look into how often American trainers add blinkers to the European horses they get, especially specialists like Clemente, Mott, Canani, etc., and how well they do when they make the change...  there's always one more project, isn't there?
alanh


Last Five Years, Foreign Shippers, 1st time Blinkers

Bill Mott - 0-0
Julio Canani - 4-11 (36%, $3.29 ROI)

Don't have anything for Clement right now, but I'll post when I get the chance.  Let me know if you have any other trainers you're watching for this stat.

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Dan, would you please post the pp'sfor the tough sprinter "Good and Tough" who I think earned around $900,000.  Also the pp's on theracemare "Rainmom".
Thanks
richie B

Here they are:

Download GoodRain

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Dan,
What's your feeling on Dean's Kitten?  Looking at his running lines, he's not that far off Paddy O'Prado, and will likely get completely overlooked based on the horrid dirt race against Esky.  But his beyers on on an upward swing and he seems to have the ability to close.  I'm wondering what Kitten's Joy's stats are with dirt routers.
NJDerek

His ability to rally from off the pace should work in his favor considering the considerable amount of speed entered for the Derby.  He's also in improving form and the price should be right.  Personally, I don't like him as he seems like more of a turf/synthetic horse than a dirt runner. 
Besides Dean's Kitten, Kitten's Joy has sired route stakes-winners Kera's Kitten (polytrack), Lisa's Kitten (grass), and William's Kitten (dirt).  The sample size is still small but, considering Kitten's Joy's race record and pedigree, he will do better with routers on the grass.

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Dan,
Hello. I went to Saratoga on 2005 and hit a very juicy Late Pick4. I think it was the weekend of August 25th. Is there any way you can recover those PPs, from Thursday to Sunday? It will be great for me to have those as a souvenir.
Thanks.
Ivan

Dan - you will only need give Ivan the Friday August 26 pps, I believe.
p ensign

I don't have access to the past performances, but here are the charts for your nice score:

Download 82605R7

Download 82605R8

Download 82605R9

Download 82605R10

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Old Friends is a terrific charity.  In case you missed it, Michael Blowen is attempting to BUY Zippy Chippy to bring to the NY branch.  He has never bought a horse, but apparently the owner/trainer Felix "Something I can't spell" hates to part with the horse......that blew my mind.
Turnbackthealarm

Mission accomplished...http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=112444&subs=0&arc=1

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Can you post pp's for the following:
Distinguished Gentleman (1991)
Exploding Glass (1993)
Northern Jarrett (1998)
Knight Club (1998)
thank you so much
erin

I don't have past performances for Distinguished Gentleman and Northern Jarrett.  Here are the rest:

Download Oldsters

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Dan,
Would you please post the dosage info on the Derby contenders.  Thanks.
Joe Private

American Lion:
Dosage Profile: 6-3-7-0-0 (16)
Dosage Index: 3.57
Center of Distribution:  0.94

Awesome Act:
Dosage Profile: 15-3-14-0-0 (32)
Dosage Index: 3.57  
Center of Distribution:  1.03

Backtalk:
Dosage Profile: 6-2-7-1-0 (16)
Dosage Index:  2.56
Center of Distribution:  0.81

Conveyance: 
Dosage Profile: 4-1-3-0-0 (8)
Dosage Index: 4.33
Center of Distribution: 1.13

Dean's Kitten:
Dosage Profile: 2-1-9-2-0 (14)
Dosage Index: 1.15  
Center of Distribution:  0.21

Devil May Care
Dosage Profile: 7-6-17-0-0 (30)
Dosage Index: 2.53
Center of Distribution: 0.67

Discreetly Mine:
Dosage Profile: 8-8-15-0-1 (32)
Dosage Index: 2.76
Center of Distribution: 0.69

Dublin:
Dosage Profile: 3-1-6-0-0 (10)
Dosage Index: 2.33
Center of Distribution: 0.70

Endorsement:
Dosage Profile: 7-7-13-0-1 (28)
Dosage Index: 2.73
Center of Distribution: 0.68

Homeboykris:
Dosage Profile: 6-3-4-0-1 (14)
Dosage Index: 3.67
Center of Distribution:  0.93

Ice Box:
Dosage Profile: 7-6-11-0-0 (24)
Dosage Index: 3.36
Center of Distribution: 0.83

Interactif:
Dosage Profile: 12-13-15-2-2 (44)
Dosage Index: 2.83   
Center of Distribution:  0.70

Jackson Bend:
Dosage Profile: 9-4-5-0-0 (18)
Dosage Index: 6.20
Center of Distribution: 1.22

Line of David:
Dosage Profile: 7-1-8-0-0 (16)
Dosage Index: 3.00
Center of Distribution:  0.94

Lookin At Lucky:
Dosage Profile:  10-4-12-0-0 (26)
Dosage Index:  3.33
Center of Distribution:  0.92

Mission Impazible:
Dosage Profile: 7-12-7-0-2 (28)
Dosage Index: 4.09
Center of Distribution: 0.79

Noble's Promise:
Dosage Profile: 11-4-7-2-0 (24)
Dosage Index: 3.36
Center of Distribution: 1.00

Paddy O'Prado:
Dosage Profile: 2-4-12-4-0 (22)
Dosage Index:  1.20
Center of Distribution: 0.18

Sidney's Candy:
Dosage Profile: 2-2-5-1-0 (10)
Dosage Index: 1.86
Center of Distribution: 0.50

Stately Victor:
Dosage Profile: 3-2-11-0-0 (16)
Dosage Index: 1.91  
Center of Distribution:  0.50

Super Saver:
Dosage Profile: 7-7-14-0-0 (28)
Dosage Index: 3.00
Center of Distribution: 0.75

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"An intelligent, warm interacting, layback, HANDSOME, & intellectual type..."
Geeze Dan, I am beginning to wonder if you are the svengali handicapper.
All I ever got was "gee it's fun to steal track with you... Wait, there's Matt Carrothers, MATT, MATT, God is he cute"
Sigh
Steve T.


Carothers isn't in my league.  He has a CI (Cuteness Index) way over 4.00.   :)
He probably picks more winners than I do, however.

***

Dan (and everyone) Just some questions that I kind of wonder what others think about: It seems like a lot of people (especially "experts") put a lot of stock in the trainer as far as angles, etc. There are basically 3 factors in a race: horse, trainer, jockey. What % of significance do you put in each. (I'll start 70% horse, 20% trainer, 10% jock)
Also, regarding Beyers/Brisnet figures, do you put more significance in the beyers or bris numbers. (I know Dan has to say Beyers if he wants to have a job!)

Dan-
On an entirely different (and more public) topic: Have you ever been to the new Arlington Park. I know that Steve Davidowitz and Alan Shuback have been there "hawking" their books and talking racing and handicapping and with the following you have in Chicago, it could be a lot of fun. (And after your double-secret...etc. project, you deserve a vacation!)
Stephen Taylor

I try to live by the old maxim, "It's horse racing, not trainer racing."  If I had to break down percentages, I'd say it's 85% horse, 10% trainer, 5% jockey.

I couldn't compare the two speed figures because I've never used Brisnet.

The Arlington trip sounds like a very, very, very good idea.  I think I'm going to propose it to the powers that be.  Even if they don't endorse it, I may head on over to Chi-Town with my vacation time. 

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Hello all. I wonder if anyone can help me with this question - I'm from the U.K and don't really know how this works in U.S racing. U.K bookies are offering huge odds on Winslow Homer to win the Derby. I know he's been injured and is likely to miss the race, and you DON'T get your money back if he doesn't make it to the gate. He has enough earnings to get in if hes fit though, and I think it may be worth chancing a few quid on. However, last time I looked at the derby entries he wasn't amoungst them. Supposing he made a miraculous recovery, could the trainer do a U-turn and re-enter him, or is he definiteley out of it now? Cheers for reading.
Danny

Danny;
Welcome to FormBlog.  Winslow Homer should have HUGE odds to RUN in the Kentucky Derby (~1000/1) let alone actually win the Kentucky Derby.  Even if he were to run (which of course he won't) he would have virtually no chance to win it.  I hope you save your money for a bet on a colt that will actually be running.  Good luck to you bloke!
Van Savant

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Dan or Anyone
In looking at the PP's for this weekend, the old 2 sprints to a route stat popped up a number of times.  My question-are there any empirical studies that demonstrate the usefullness of this stat.

Not sure how Candy Rides do  first on turf, but I'm probably going to pay to find out.  For a change, a very nice card at GGF tomorrow.
blackstone

I wonder if this stat has as much relevance as it perhaps had in the past.  The thinking, theoretically, would be that a route horse, sometimes returning from a layoff, would be legged up a couple of times in sprint races before being asked to go his best distance.  It seems as if training methods have changed where horses aren't generally "prepping" for other races down the road as much as in years past.  That's just my opinion, I may be totally off-base on that.  The DRF trainer stats will mention two sprints to a route statistics. 

Going into that race, Candy Ride was 8-58 with first-time turf runners.

***

There's been alot of mention of Super Saver lately, but why hasn't he worked since his April 10th race? He should have worked by now, shouldn't he?
Annie

Super Saver finally breezed a half-mile in 48.80 at Churchill Downs on April 24.

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His pedigree as it appears to this completely novice eye suggests that 10 furlongs is within his range, no?  His sire, El Prado, is the sire of Medaglia d’Oro.  El Prado is a Group I winner at 12 furlongs from what I recall

Question for you, though...when you sit down to handicap a race, are you using the "fishwrap" (tabloid-style paper) or printed sheets?  I'm curious, because I find it more difficult to use the wrap, but I have been printing my sheets for many, many years.

El Prado has been a very versatile stallion, but he only won at distances between six furlongs and one mile. 

I use the Formulator Web lifetime past performance printouts. 


***

A couple of friends in London will be attending their first race meet at Kempton Park on May 3 (bank holiday!) and their named race (Yes, another group of Sherlock Holmes fans)goes off at 3 pm.
Can you tell me please where I can find the entries for that course, and do you have any insight as to the horses/jocks/trainers there?
Any that are currently hot?
Any good angles to play?
Katieattherail

Katie, head over to www.racingpost.co.uk and click on "Cards" for racing information and statistics.  In Alan Shuback's excellent work, Global Racing, he describes Kempton Park as a "level, right-handed Polytrack oval 1 1/4 miles in length.  This course is used for races at six furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile, 1 3/8 miles, 1 1/2 miles, and 2 miles.  A six-furlong inner Polytrack course is used for races of five furlongs and 1 1/4 miles.  As a dual-purpose track, Kempton also has a turf course used for hurdle and steeplechase racing.  It is a level, 1 5/8 miles triangular course and lies outside the Polytrack course...Conditioners with experience in America, such as John Gosden and Jeremy Noseda, as well as Clive Brittain, Richard Hannon, Ed Dunlop, Brian Meehan, Barry Hills, and Mark Johnston, do not hesitate to run horses in the better Polytrack maidens and allowances, most of which are run on the southern artificial surfaces at Kempton and Lingfield.  Most of Kempton's races, however, are handicaps of dubious reputation.  In trying to gauge the quality of British imports that have run at Kempton, it is important to remember that handicaps there worth less than $20,000 rate among the weakest races in Britain..."

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 Hi Dan, my first time posting here so I'm not sure if I'm in the right place.I was interested in finding out what happened to a horse named B Trick who ran against the 2005 Derby favorite and the 2nd and 3ed place finishers in the Derby in his first 3 starts. Thank you
ChrisD

B Trick reportedly is standing stud for a $1,000 stud fee at Hilltop Farm in Virginia.

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Dan,
I know sometimes this blog is a giant pain in the Stronach, but YOU are the horse for this course. Here are the stats for the four blogs at DRF for April:
Randy Moss (27) - 1%
Hay Hovdey (143) - 4%
Steve Crist (227) - 7%
Dan Illman (2,787) - 88%
Steve T.

If only I got paid by the post!

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DAN,
Could you give us DEVIL MAY CARE'S PPs. I suppose I will have to look at her now. :)
Annie

Here they are:

Download Devil May Care

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More next time.