08/11/2016 3:48PM

Back-to-back for Frosted

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*As many of you have noticed, the "BLOG" tab on the home page has been removed. You can find this blog every week (usually published on Wednesday and Thursday) at drf.com/blogs or by going to the "NEWS" tab and clicking on the "Blogs" link. 
 
FROSTED backed up his monstrous Metropolitan Mile with a strong winning effort in last Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. Ridden aggressively by Joel Rosario, odds-on Frosted, fresh off that 123-Beyer Met, went right to the front despite early bids from UPSTART and NOBLE BIRD. 
 
The pace was legitimate as Frosted rattled off 23-second quarters in succession (23.11, 46.42, 1:09.65). Noble Bird took his chance entering the far turn and EFFINEX ranged up swinging into the stretch, but they couldn't get to Frosted, who bounded home to score by two lengths under mostly hands-and-heels encouragement. The winner completed the nine furlongs in 1:47.77 and received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. Lightly-raced COMFORT, trained by Todd Pletcher, rallied from the back of the pack to collect runner-up honors over Upstart. 
 
 
"I was cruising the whole way," Rosario remarked to track publicity after the Whitney. "He was very relaxed and I just tried to save something for the end. Sometimes he's a little difficult and you have to let him do what he wants to do, but when I turned for home I knew he had something left."
 
Frosted has been rock-solid from day one for Godolphin Racing and Kiaran McLaughlin. A third-start juvenile winner by all-world stallion Tapit out of Grade 2 Cotillion heroine Fast Cookie (a Deputy Minister half-sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman), Frosted placed second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes when wide from an outside post over an intensely inside, speed-favoring track. 
 
He was a very good 3-year-old lost in the shuffle of American Pharoah's historic 2016 campaign. Frosted chased the Grand Slam winner in vain in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Travers and Breeders' Cup Classic. He gained a minor measure of revenge in the Midsummer Derby when, after a race-long duel with American Pharoah, the champ was softened up long enough to be beaten by Keen Ice. When directed away from American Pharaoh, Frosted scooped up graded wins in both the Wood Memorial and Pennsylvania Derby. 
 
Frosted's main early-season goal was the $10M Dubai World Cup, but he met his match in dual classic winner CALIFORNIA CHROME. Now, with the Metropolitan Handicap and Whitney in his back pocket, Frosted has asserted himself as the East Coast's best handicap horse, primed for a rematch with California Chrome in the Breeders' Cup Classic. 
 
How will he get there?  That's the question McLaughin must answer. One option is to race Frosted in one prep race, either the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga or the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. The other is to train Frosted up to the race. If Godolphin does opt for the latter, Frosted would be off almost three months going into the Classic. 
 
Either way, it's nice to see Frosted, unappreciated somewhat in 2015, grab a major role as a 4-year-old. If he continues in this form, he is obviously a Classic contender. 
 
*Video stakes previews for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos
 
*Mike Beer, Matt Bernier and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis at 4:00 ET on Saturday. You can find us at live.drf.com. This week, we'll cover Saratoga, Del Mar and Arlington Park
 
*You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
 
*Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 8/3/16 - 8/9/16:
 
1. FROSTED - 107 - Whitney Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 6Aug16-10SAR
2. SUMMER REVOLUTION - 104 - Alw 85000N1X - 7 Furlongs - 6Aug16-4SAR
3. SHINING COPPER - 102 - Lure Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Aug16-7SAR
4. ROYAL POSSE - 100 - Alydar Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - 7Aug16-9SAR
5. ARROGATE - 99 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 4Aug16-2DMR
5. MONEY MULTIPLIER - 99 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 5Aug16-7SAR
5. WATCHYOUROWNBOBBER - 99 - West Virginia House of Delegate's Speaker's Cup - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Turf) - 6Aug16-9MNR
8. LADY LARA (IRE) - 98 - De La Rose Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 6Aug16-11SAR
8. SOBRADORA INC (ARG) - 98 - Osunitas Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 7Aug16-7DMR
8. STRAIGHT FIRE - 98 - Md Sp Wt 64k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 6Aug16-8DMR
11. SCHIVARELLI - 97 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs - 8Aug16-8SAR
11. VESTIBULE - 97 - Alw 34605C - 6 Furlongs - 5Aug16-9CBY
13. MONSTER MASH - 96 - Clm 32000 - 6 Furlongs - 3Aug16-6SAR
13. WAVELL AVENUE - 96 - Shine Again Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 3Aug16-8SAR
15. CUPID - 95 - West Virginia Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 6Aug16-8MNR
15. FIRE ROSE - 95 - La Jolla Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Aug16-9DMR
15. HOLDING GOLD - 95 - Quick Call Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Aug16-9SAR
15. TEXAS CHROME - 95 - Prelude Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Aug16-6LAD
15. YOURDREAMSORMINE - 95 - OC 62k/C - 1 Mile - 5Aug16-9GP 
20. FOURSTAR CROOK - 94 - Alw 85000N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 7Aug16-8SAR
20. GLORYZAPPER - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 3Aug16-2DMR
20. GUAPAZA (CHI) - 94 - Waya Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 6Aug16-9SAR
20. HAWAAKOM - 94 - West Virginia Governor's Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Aug16-7MNR
20. RISE UP - 94 - OC 50k/C -N - 1 Mile - 5Aug16-7ELP
20. SO SWEETITIZ - 94 - Daisycutter Handicap - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Aug16-7DMR
20. W. B. SMUDGE - 94 - Senator Robert C. Byrd Memorial Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 6Aug16-6MNR
 
Frosted's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
 
*Congrats to Suheil for winning the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
 
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
Suheil selected Saturday's Fourstardave from Saratoga for this week's exercise. 
 
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
 
 
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
 
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
 
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
 
As an example :
 
HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
 
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Harpo
 
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
 
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

 

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FROSTED.pdf798.75 KB
Copy of HG 8 6 16 W V Derby.xls56 KB
HG4STARDAVE.pdf192.44 KB
SR Vegas 9 months ago
HG

SWEDE   HG Recalculate ,  you are looking at the pps, from LAST weeks Fourstardave.

New pps and post positions  are on Dan's  NEW thread. 

SR Vegas
pat 9 months ago

Two Turn Back Rants in one week. How lucky are we? Horse racing has never been anything but a slush fund for politicians. NONE of them understand it. It is so simple to classify those that OWN horses as EVIL one percenters(far from the truth)....and those that PLAY as degenerates. What easy targets to screw over again and again. "Business Friendly" only means those that pay to play. I would think that most PAY but the relationship is so parasitic...I often can give the track owners a bit of a pass in some of their actions.....but not entirely.  They don't know the score either. I recently had a lengthy talk with a MD race track semi big wig. He is IN the business and he has little clue of what his fan base is...or what it could be. My biggest gripe is that the tracks have an obligation to make people feel safe.....I am an A****** so I can tell people to back off and move away from me. If I were a shrinking violet they would have chased me away years ago. IT is the little things that track personnel DON'T DO that drives away the crowds.


MD has gone the opposite way of Arlington. THEY NEVER CHARGE to get in. Just like the child catcher in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang "ALL FREE TODAY"...too bad the cage they put you in is pretty bad...because of who they let in. How in the heck can you let in over 400 people/day who have no money? Stoopers and beggars make up about a 1/3rd of the crowd. I pre-handicap, I get my money together and make a plan......I also have to "brace up" to combat the nut jobs who are sure to bother me and my companion.


Easiest change and cheapest one to boot. HAVE your workers be nice and have lots of ambassadors in the crowd...doing thank you's  and 'what can I do for you".  How silly they are.

Anonymous 9 months ago
TBTA,

Not for the first time I must commend your passion and your ability to demonstrate it so clearly here on the Blog.  
Isn't it a shame that politicians and big-wigs in general find ways to interfere with horse racing and the way that general admission fans wish to see it operate.


Pat,

That "Fancy Clancy" man seems a great addition to watching a ball game.


Whacky,

Great picking.  Are you going to spend it wisely, or splashing out on something special?


Ned Daly,

I really enjoyed my only ever visit to Boston.  Great drinking until they closed (around 2 am?).  A tremendous food market.  And an exciting day out whale watching.



Best Regards - Bernard Downes


ed 9 months ago
Cathy.
Two rants in one week! Who says two rants don't make a right? Spot on with both subjects. My Gov. does not get horse racing as a business. He does give his buddies BIG breaks and finally realized he will not be the next president. Monmouth would be a wise investment. Wonderful track and some good racing. It generates money. Atlantic City is a lost cause and there is no need to continue the monopoly. He foolishly tried to get sports betting at what cost? I have lost Garden State Park years ago and AC last year ( 5 racing dates). I am not a big fan of Parx. Big take out and the track has no feel. The casino is nice though. So my live racing career is pretty much over. I do miss being able to watch the horses in the paddock and warming up. It is a great angle of betting which can lead to some nice prices. Betting on my computer or even at my OTB is reduced to just running over the pps. No watching to see if the owner is dressed up or sending someone to make his bets. Small signs  that can be seen. I do miss my simple pleasures.
As for the gouging, I hope CDI and NYRA get hit by lightning. Is that too harsh? They have great products and can do so much more for the sport and those involved with it. They are just in the game for their profit. I also play CD on Oaks and Derby day only. I cannot watch  any Arlington and FG races, so I will not play them. I am scared we will lose Monmouth and even Aqueduct.  $30 admission is a joke. It would be okay if they gave you a $20 betting voucher. At least give you a bang for your bucks. When AP was going for the TC, they limited the crowd to 90,000. Now that  is how you grow your business. They would do better if they hired Pat G and similar bettors to tour their facilities and give them recommendations to improve their operations. Better bring a pad, there is lots to be done. Sorry for my long and winding road. We are in this together.
Bernard,
Cheers. Thank you sir, I will have another. May your glass never be empty.   edb
Anonymous 9 months ago

Whacky,


No, I'm afraid I didn't play yesterday. :( Wish I had though. It's very rare that a Pick 5 with 5 "A" winners will pay that much. I think a lot of people must have singled TOURNY in the 3rd (ran 2nd) and that eliminated the majority of players. Again congrats for playing it just right. :)


Annie

God Bless Longshots 9 months ago
Recent Workout Talk

Saratoga Today Race 6

#8 MIRAI (2/1)

Andy Serling and Andy Munick just talked about the horse's workouts and showed the video of one of his work in which he worked 2F in 20 and change (I think it was at Ocala).  Now, even the G1 sprinters don't run two furlongs that fast. His workouts are atypical of Chad who work his horses slow. 

Not a play of course because of already low ML odds which are expected to drop even more but from the perspective of recent workout talk, he look like a good case (although its a sprint).

GBL
pat 9 months ago

People often wonder why Maiden Claimers are often the best source for value in racing.

In the discussion thread to follow up on David's interpretation of the works.....I and ProMo offered our thoughts about how horses are prepared.


I pointed out the 10th race at Saratoga yesterday. TAP had a horse in for 20,000 that was a 625K yearling...had been with the string in Florida, had some workouts, had some gaps, and to me it was an obvious DUMP and move on job. Another factor that I failed to mention is the "costume party" that the groom will put on a horse in this situation. I am positive that the Pletcher looked fantastic. They wanted out of the horse. ONE of the main reasons that MD Claimers can pay so well is that an OBVIOUS throw out took a ton of dough. So all other odds went up. The crowd looked at the only angle.....Pletcher had one in and he wins with first time starters. Sometimes the game is easy in one respect.......throwing out non contenders who have lots of human connection STAR POWER.

Take advantage of foolish money. The Ramsey's claimed the horse. I will put on my watch list to keep track of this one.


Watched the LA Downs replay. How come I was reminded of the "Easy Money" race track scene? If I owned the horse and wasn't in on the "plan" I would have jumped over the rail and pulled a Nicky Cerone(Joe Pesci) and  ripped the guy off the horse. My old race track friend "Swami" would have gone NUTTY. Years ago I was at the track with my friend, the late great Dale Austin of the Baltimore Sun. We were walking around Pimlico and went into the security office. There was a picture of my buddy Swami.....and underneath the photo was his reason for his banning. "KNOWN JOCKEY BAITER".

Dick Wright 9 months ago
Whacky

Congrats on nailing that juicy Del Mar pick 5 !!!

Dick W
Okiesharp 9 months ago
David of 9's, Pat, Professor 

Maybe I missed it but is there some rule of thumb on how many furlongs a horse 
should work over any given period of time?

Okiesharp
Cathy 9 months ago
Way to go Whacky Macky!!!   I hope that score made your heart sing and the diabetes sting a little less.

DavidM999,

I love Paulick Report too.  However, if you want to see a less than investigative piece of journalism, read his cringeworthy cream puff interview of G Watts Humphrey. Ray completely let him slide on his statement that CDI cares about racing and horses.  Never mentioned the Fairgrounds turf course, the dismal state of Calder or the fact that Arlington is one of the most beautiful racetracks in the US and except for maybe three days, it has racing that is equal to Finger Lakes...............the comments below the article were absolutely scathing with special props to our old Formblog friend, Tinky, for pointing out the obvious holes in his statements.  

Probably the most galling to me, having just paid $30 for a general admission ticket on Saturday, was his stated strategy that CDI was not really interested in getting more bodies into the track, but raising the prices and providing "value" to the members of the public who are willing to come and spend more money on admission, food and drink.  I just don't get that.  With racing, more bodies usually means more handle.  After the Millions, my husband and I stayed for the "get out" race.  Left behind were not the pretty people in hats and fancy outfits. (Except me, I wore my special hat that I bought at Gulfstream because the designer of it was at AP on Saturday, and I promised her I'd wear it.)  Anyway, there were tons of people who obviously worked around horses  who also had their families with.  I like to think that many of them had charges in the earlier races and were finishing out their day enjoying the last race, a stakes race no less, of the day.

Anyway, I couldn't believe the amounts, in cash, I saw these guys push through the windows on that last race.  I don't spend that much over six or seven races.  Yet, G Watts Humphrey thinks I am the kind of person he wants at the track.  Just silly and quite a bit elitist in my book.   And because of the way CDI treats it's customers, I won't bet it's product on any day unless it the Oaks/Derby Day or when I am on track at Arlington.  So, it's a double loss.

In my opinion, if you want to focus on the affluent customer, fine, just set up some fancy rooms and restaurants and have a special viewing section of the paddock for these high payers in case they want to actually view the horses instead of each other.  However, have a reasonable general admission to keep out Pat's broken shoe people, so families and the middle class can also come out and enjoy a day outdoors with our equine athletes.  That is how we grow the sport.  With the increasing focus on only the affluent across all sections of entertainment, I keep wondering when a sport is going to go after the broad swath of US population that makes less than $100K a year, because they are the group that sure seems to be neglected in the marketing plans.

Whoops, another TBTA rant.  Sorry.