08/11/2016 3:48PM

Back-to-back for Frosted

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*As many of you have noticed, the "BLOG" tab on the home page has been removed. You can find this blog every week (usually published on Wednesday and Thursday) at drf.com/blogs or by going to the "NEWS" tab and clicking on the "Blogs" link. 
 
FROSTED backed up his monstrous Metropolitan Mile with a strong winning effort in last Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. Ridden aggressively by Joel Rosario, odds-on Frosted, fresh off that 123-Beyer Met, went right to the front despite early bids from UPSTART and NOBLE BIRD. 
 
The pace was legitimate as Frosted rattled off 23-second quarters in succession (23.11, 46.42, 1:09.65). Noble Bird took his chance entering the far turn and EFFINEX ranged up swinging into the stretch, but they couldn't get to Frosted, who bounded home to score by two lengths under mostly hands-and-heels encouragement. The winner completed the nine furlongs in 1:47.77 and received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. Lightly-raced COMFORT, trained by Todd Pletcher, rallied from the back of the pack to collect runner-up honors over Upstart. 
 
 
"I was cruising the whole way," Rosario remarked to track publicity after the Whitney. "He was very relaxed and I just tried to save something for the end. Sometimes he's a little difficult and you have to let him do what he wants to do, but when I turned for home I knew he had something left."
 
Frosted has been rock-solid from day one for Godolphin Racing and Kiaran McLaughlin. A third-start juvenile winner by all-world stallion Tapit out of Grade 2 Cotillion heroine Fast Cookie (a Deputy Minister half-sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman), Frosted placed second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes when wide from an outside post over an intensely inside, speed-favoring track. 
 
He was a very good 3-year-old lost in the shuffle of American Pharoah's historic 2016 campaign. Frosted chased the Grand Slam winner in vain in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Travers and Breeders' Cup Classic. He gained a minor measure of revenge in the Midsummer Derby when, after a race-long duel with American Pharoah, the champ was softened up long enough to be beaten by Keen Ice. When directed away from American Pharaoh, Frosted scooped up graded wins in both the Wood Memorial and Pennsylvania Derby. 
 
Frosted's main early-season goal was the $10M Dubai World Cup, but he met his match in dual classic winner CALIFORNIA CHROME. Now, with the Metropolitan Handicap and Whitney in his back pocket, Frosted has asserted himself as the East Coast's best handicap horse, primed for a rematch with California Chrome in the Breeders' Cup Classic. 
 
How will he get there?  That's the question McLaughin must answer. One option is to race Frosted in one prep race, either the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga or the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. The other is to train Frosted up to the race. If Godolphin does opt for the latter, Frosted would be off almost three months going into the Classic. 
 
Either way, it's nice to see Frosted, unappreciated somewhat in 2015, grab a major role as a 4-year-old. If he continues in this form, he is obviously a Classic contender. 
 
*Video stakes previews for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos
 
*Mike Beer, Matt Bernier and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis at 4:00 ET on Saturday. You can find us at live.drf.com. This week, we'll cover Saratoga, Del Mar and Arlington Park
 
*You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
 
*Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 8/3/16 - 8/9/16:
 
1. FROSTED - 107 - Whitney Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 6Aug16-10SAR
2. SUMMER REVOLUTION - 104 - Alw 85000N1X - 7 Furlongs - 6Aug16-4SAR
3. SHINING COPPER - 102 - Lure Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Aug16-7SAR
4. ROYAL POSSE - 100 - Alydar Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - 7Aug16-9SAR
5. ARROGATE - 99 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 4Aug16-2DMR
5. MONEY MULTIPLIER - 99 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 5Aug16-7SAR
5. WATCHYOUROWNBOBBER - 99 - West Virginia House of Delegate's Speaker's Cup - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Turf) - 6Aug16-9MNR
8. LADY LARA (IRE) - 98 - De La Rose Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 6Aug16-11SAR
8. SOBRADORA INC (ARG) - 98 - Osunitas Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 7Aug16-7DMR
8. STRAIGHT FIRE - 98 - Md Sp Wt 64k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 6Aug16-8DMR
11. SCHIVARELLI - 97 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs - 8Aug16-8SAR
11. VESTIBULE - 97 - Alw 34605C - 6 Furlongs - 5Aug16-9CBY
13. MONSTER MASH - 96 - Clm 32000 - 6 Furlongs - 3Aug16-6SAR
13. WAVELL AVENUE - 96 - Shine Again Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 3Aug16-8SAR
15. CUPID - 95 - West Virginia Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 6Aug16-8MNR
15. FIRE ROSE - 95 - La Jolla Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Aug16-9DMR
15. HOLDING GOLD - 95 - Quick Call Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Aug16-9SAR
15. TEXAS CHROME - 95 - Prelude Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Aug16-6LAD
15. YOURDREAMSORMINE - 95 - OC 62k/C - 1 Mile - 5Aug16-9GP 
20. FOURSTAR CROOK - 94 - Alw 85000N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 7Aug16-8SAR
20. GLORYZAPPER - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 3Aug16-2DMR
20. GUAPAZA (CHI) - 94 - Waya Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 6Aug16-9SAR
20. HAWAAKOM - 94 - West Virginia Governor's Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Aug16-7MNR
20. RISE UP - 94 - OC 50k/C -N - 1 Mile - 5Aug16-7ELP
20. SO SWEETITIZ - 94 - Daisycutter Handicap - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Aug16-7DMR
20. W. B. SMUDGE - 94 - Senator Robert C. Byrd Memorial Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 6Aug16-6MNR
 
Frosted's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
 
*Congrats to Suheil for winning the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
 
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
Suheil selected Saturday's Fourstardave from Saratoga for this week's exercise. 
 
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
 
 
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
 
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
 
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
 
As an example :
 
HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
 
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Harpo
 
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
 
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

 

AttachmentSize
FROSTED.pdf798.75 KB
Copy of HG 8 6 16 W V Derby.xls56 KB
HG4STARDAVE.pdf192.44 KB