07/24/2011 5:29PM

Arlington: How do "they" know?


I liked Seans Silverdancer quite a bit in race 7, an off-the-turf Illinois-bred N2X allowance over nine furlongs, but SS was getting hammered in the win pool (she'd go off at even-money), and I was trying to find a way to play the race. Scanning exacta probables, there was the SS-Love This Kitten combo showing an $18 probable payoff for $2 with about five minutes to post. Love This Kitten was getting bet, too, and was 2-1 at the time. But the $2 SS - Southern Wonder combo, I noticed, was showing just a $20 payoff, and Southern Wonder was a 9-1 shot at the time. I nearly made a straight SS - SW exacta based solely on the betting action, but thought better of such a foolish move and passed the race. So, Sean's Silverdancer runs well and is a clear winner at the sixteenth pole. Love This Kitten presses and fades, and there's a mad three-way scramble for the place hole. At the wire, I can see a dark-bay nose an inch in front of the other two, and of course, it's Southern Wonder.

Really, how do "they" know?