06/22/2011 3:37PM

Arlington: Bet the inside speed

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Somehow I managed to get shut out of a race 4 win/place bet on Gray, a horse I liked not one bit going into today's action, but who looked like great value at 3-1 after watching the first three races today. See, Gray was breaking from post 1 and figured to make the lead, and right now, that's a potent combination on Arlington Polytrack. Gray was harassed through an opening quarter-mile in 22.73 seconds, which should have completely compromised his chances in a one-turn mile for $5K N1Y claimers, but didn't, of course, because the main track is crazily carrying inside horses, especially on the front end. Runner-up was Smokealongthetrack, who spent most of the race tracking the pace while hugging the rail. If you can figure out who's going to make an inside lead in any of the races left on this card, give that handicapping factor far more weight than any other until the racing surface tells us otherwise.