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Aqueduct 11/18/12: Triple Carryover
By Steven Crist
12:37 pm: About 70 minutes to the start of an Aqueduct pick-6 with a triple carryover, though the amount in the kitty to start the day is a little light -- $155,839. Still, worth a try.
It's a robust sequence today -- 11 x 10 x 11 x 9 x 9 x 10, a mere 980,100 possible permutations -- with three dirt sprints alternating with three 8.5f turf races, four of them for maidens. As usual, NYRA arranged the races with absolutely no consideration for multirace players, positioning the most firster-laden race as the 5th, one race into the pick-6. Can anyone give me one good reason the 4th and 5th shouldn't have been switched, making a race with four firsters the first rather than the second leg and a race with 11 maidens who have already run the second rather than first leg? This issue has been raised often, here and elsewhere, and remains ignored by management.
I'll try to get through that firster-filled second leg by leaning on two uncoupled Chad Brown-trained fillies (Wave Theory and Atlantic Dream) who have already run and who are emerging from the Miss Grillo, on the theory that fillies so highly regaded as to be put in graded stakes in their second career starts are probably better than thefirsters, but a look at the board before the pick-6 would have been nice.
I'll be back with tickets in a little while. First leg at 1:47 pm, last at 4:17. Here's the lineup after scratches:
1:20 pm: Here's the play:
Thought there were four possible singles in the sequence. In the opener, Azasecret (#9) has a last-out figure that would crush the field, but she's a chronic stopper wholcoughed up the lead at 1-to-5 at this level last time out, so I also used Thetrainwasgone as an A -- she's dropping from MSW to MC20 for the first time and that's frequently enough to get the money in these statebred maiden claimers.
I leaned on Wave Theory over Atlantic Dream in the 5th and ignored the four firsters. With a bigger investment, I would have used them equally as A's and added the firsters as C's, but you've got to trim somewhere.
Shakeira in the 7th just looks better than these and appears finally to have found a field with no killers. Sean Chai and Geisha Gal look next best and appear to have the most upside. Dreaming of Cara is probably not good enough but her two best turf efforts came at Aqueduct. She's an unlikely winner but may well outrun her 30-1 ML odds.
The finale brims with possibilities but I'll take my chances with Katie Malone and Fast and Strong if I get that far. The latter was a potential lean off a string of superior figures, but her continued losses at short odds, and the stretch back to a route after having been cut back from routes to sprints, made me sufficiently queasy to double up on the A line.
1:52 pm: The drop was enough. Thetrainwasgone (#1-$5.80), in for $20k after four MSW tries, won the early duel and held off 18-1 Tina's Note late to win the first leg as the 9-5 second chooice. Azasecret was a distant third as the slight 9-5 favorite.
Tina's Note, aluminumpad off and trying dirt again after seven straight grass tries, opened 9-1, doubled in price during the betting. The eternal dilemma: Down the stretch, should I have been rooting for the 9-5 A or the 18-1 C? In the first leg, I think you always root for the A.
Unusual to see a race with five horses at 48-1 or higher, but they really did look that bad on paper -- including Caninann, beaten 75 3/4 in her debut at Suffolk Downs but along for fourth at 76-1 today.
2:00 pm: Wave Theory opened 3-to-5 for the second leg with Atlantic Dream the 5-1 second choice. As for those four firsters: Stormy Rhapsody (J Englehart) is 19-1, Trophy Point (Albertrani) is 23-1, Rock Show (Terranova) is 14-1, and I'm a little nervous that My Aly Rae (Nihei) is the third choice at 8-1.
One race before the pick-6 started, Saginaw ($3.20) won the $76k Fourstars Allstar to run his 2012 record to 9 for 12. The race was equally noteworthy for the return of Friend or Foe, who was second by just three-quarters of a length while making his first start since the 2011 Whitney. The 5-year-old by Friends Lake will stay in training and is being pointed for the Donn at Gulfstream this winter.
2:25 pm: In a battle of the Chads, 4-5 Wave Theory (#4-$3.60) was up in the final strides to nail uncoupled entrymate 5-2 Atlantic Dream, with pacesetter Voodoo Tales third and My Aly Rae a belated fourth. Wave Theory was best by more than her one-length margin: She swerved at the start, was rank between horses for the opening half mile and made up an impossible-looking gap in the final furlong, whereas Atlantic Dream had a perfect trip stalking from second.
Lisalisalee, Dubb/Rudy second-timer,opened 6-5 for the 6th with the other 10 at 8-1 or higher. No parimutuel love for $230k McLaughlin firster China Gold, currently 17-1.
2:55 pm: Phew. Graceful Meghan (#11-$12.00) looked like she was done in midstretch after dueling with and turning back 7-5 Lisalisalee, but found just enough to hold off 16-1 Raven Rise to win the 6th. Graceful Meghan was beaten a dozen lengths in the mud in her debut but clearly was more highly-regarded than that as she was bet to 4-1 second choice behind a runaway 7-5 winner that day.
Staying on the A line through the first half of the sequence has kept 6 of the 11 tickets alive (#'s 1,3,4,7,10 and 11 in the array below):
That boils down to three live outcomes:
3:30 pm: Shakeira (#4-$3.80) just up at the wire from far back to nail 1-2-around-the-track Inaugurate and Geisha Gal in the 7th. Lots of live combos (7x2 or 4x4) but with winners at 9-5, 4-5, 5-1 and 4-5, it's not shaping up as a bonanza.
3:40 pm: Per NYRA release, Groupie Doll is "confirmed" to take on the boys in the G1 Cigar Mile next Saturday. Hurrahs to the Bradleys for doing something extra special with an extra-special filly.
3:55 pm: Grrr. Looked like 9-1 Be Bullish might catch 8-5 Rigby in the final yards, but Rigby held on to continue the chalkfest and win the 8th in a snappy 1:09.15. That makes four victories in six starts since Steve Asmussen took him from Dominick Schettino for $17,500.
The understandably mild willpays:
All 10 are covered in the pick-6. I'm alive to 6 of them (1,3,5,7,8,10) but come out on the wrong side of the ledger if favored Fast and Strong wins and it pays $586. (First person to say "Yeah, but it's under the IRS reporting threshhold" is a rotten egg.) Actually pretty unusual to see willpays where longshots are paying 400 and 800 times as much as a favorite when that favorite is 2-1 and not 2-to-5
I would actually do better if three of the four horses I did NOT use wins, as I have saver 50-cent pick-4's to them (the insanity-insurance A/A/A/X play) that would pay more than the pick-6 to the favorite.
4:25 pm: Fast and Strong was neither, chasing and as usual hanging late, and Katie Malone ($12.40) benefitted from the switch to Ramon Dominguez (fifth of the day) to win the nightcap and complete a $2,870 all-A pick-6. Could have been better, could have been worse.
It doesn't matter whether a ticket is over the IRS threshold.... you owe taxes on it either way.
Steve Congrats on your score. Any P-6 hit is a good one, no matter the size. On a more unhappy note, in case to you hadn't heard, Fair Meadows here in Tulsa has been closed. While not unusual news inthis day and age, it was the manner in which it was closed that should be of interest, especially to you and your fellow New Yorkers who have been the subject of poltical mismanagement of racing for lo these many years. Fair Meadows and the simulcast facility are located on the Tulsa County Fairgrounds and as such are subject to the Tulsa County Fair Board jurisdiction. The board is made up of the three Tulsa County Commisioners and two appointees.In addition to the betting revenue generated by both live racing and simulcast betting, Fair Meadows was part of a compact between the Creek, Osage and Cherokee tribes , inwhich they recieved $ 2 million dollars a year for not installing gaming machines at the track. While the live meet was losing approximately $600,000 a year the total handle for the track and simulcast produced a profit for the Fair Board of approximately $ 1.2 to 1.4 million a year. According to the figures provided to the Tulsa World, our local newspaper, Fair Meadows was the largest profit-making enterprise on the entire fairgrounds year after year. Meanwhile, the simulcast facility, once the rival of any that I have been to over thirty years of handicapping, continued to deteriorate, with no support from the board whatsoever. Approximately a year ago, the board announced its intention to "move" the live meet to another track, either Will Rogers Downs or Remington Park. While this would adversely affect the live meet employees, it was certainly a better option than closing down the simulcast, which employs substantially more people on ayear round basis as well as preserving the guaranteed payments from the tribes. Imagine everyone's suprise when the board, without notice to either the horsemen's association or the tribes, announced that effective January 1, 2013 Fair Meadows would close. Further imagine the surprise when Fred Perry, one of the commisioners announced after the decision that he was unaware the the closure was a breach of the tribal agreement, which not only affected the $ 2 million payment to Fair Meadows but an additional $4 million to Remington Park and Will Rogers Downs, thereby affecting their purse structures. To underscore the state-wide effect of this decision, this morning's World reported that a state legislator from a county clear across the state from Tulsa has asked for an investigation into this decision by the Attorney General. As a result, those of us inTulsa, the second-largest city in the state will be left without a way to bet on the horses after the first of the year and, more importantly, the hard-working employess of Fair Meadows are going to be left without jobs, in a time when jobs are hard to come by. Hopefully this might be fodder for your column/blog. If not, at least I got to vent. Chris Grant
bet t two : 1,9/4/9/4/1,5,9/7,8,9 and 1/4/10/9,11/4/5/7,8. I don't care if the morning line is a 50-1 M/L, NEVER LEAVE Ramon off the last leg. thanks to all the help out there.
That's too much work for what essentially amounts to a $1,000 win bet on a 5/2 favorite. But congrats. I didn't have Graceful Meghan else I would have cashed too.
What pisses me off is the Racing Sec should not put .... 2----3------.....12 horse maiden fields in the Pick..it's suppose to be a handicapping contest and you can't handicap first time starters to any degree.. look at Betfair the last couple of weeks $ 80-----90----l30 dollar winners.....................That was not the original intent
Steve, you were upstaged in the local paper; XYZ selected 12 consectutive NFL winners. But you were paid. Good work!
Neat old Aqueduct poster Steve. Picking 6 is pretty decent no matter what it pays. Congrats. The issue with race scheduling is something that continues to amaze me. I'm not a P6 player, but I can't understand why NYRA continues to ignore what is an obvious and legitimate complaint from their multi race players. Is it an attempt to make the sequence that much more difficult?
He swings, he hits !
Steve, as to the "one good reason" (re: races 4 & 5 not being switched)... it is completely simple: Would you rather wager on a poker hand that is face-up? or a poker hand that is face-down? Your edge over the rank and file out here is one of staggering proportion, and that doesn't even take into account your available bankroll for playing these things, or the fact that for you it is always convenient to wager. With that in mind, you could maintain a killer edge over everybody out here in listener land by simply utilizing the breadth of information free at your fingertips. Those firsters opening up with heavy tote action is something you should be anticipating beforehand, ideally three races in advance, for your having studied the depths of who is live and who isn't live much earlier. Switching races 4 and 5 to begin the sequence does you no favors in that it puts all of the cards face-up for everybody to watch while you're all betting against one another. To you, it would be akin to finishing and posting your pick-6 layout here many hours before the first bell sounded. I can't understand why you like to maintain your edge in one way while ignoring your edge in the other way. The rest of us simply cannot match all of your non-financial resources yet it seems upside-down that you should be championing the reduction of your edge when so much of the rest of what you tend to write is based in complete logic.
Steve: Congrats today. I saw how locked in you were with 5 A's to start the sequence that i double keyed your A's with your C's to hit the super. Thanks for providing the horses as always.