09/03/2008 5:24PM

Althea, questions

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jim –" I want to increase the size of my bets but I also want to practice restraint and am afraid to because it may alter the way I handicap and bet. Would appreciate any advice from those of you who have made such a leap to avoid the possible pitfalls."
That's a very good question, and you seem to understand that money management is a crucial variable in successful gambling. A long time ago, when I finally figured out just how important money management was, I came up with a fairly simple system which I still use when necessary. I suspect that some variation of this system could be of use to you (and perhaps others on the forum). Divide your wagers into two categories: action and prime. The way to think of it is that prime bets are the ones in which you have so much confidence, that in the long run they WILL be profitable. Action bets, on the other hand, are certain to create a loss over time. Now, depending on your bankroll size and comfort level, create a maximum wager size for your action bets, and a minimum wager size for your prime bets. There should be a meaningful spread between the two figures (e.g. in my case it is $50 and $500). This will help to insure that a) you don't lose too much when you place action bets (which should, ideally, be kept to a minimum in any case), and b) you will have a high level of confidence when you place a prime bet, as it will hurt if you lose. Many smart people who gamble on horses still lose over the long run because they squander too much money on less than good opportunities. This type of simple system can help to mitigate against that possibility, and at the same time should help the bettor to refine his or her judgment with regards to identifying prime wagering opportunities.

I'm with Tinky here.  The best horseplayers are ones that are patient and wait for great betting opportunities.  Those, of course, don't come along every single day.  It's hard to go to the track day after day, race after race, and sit out.  We're there for fun, and that's where an "action" bankroll will come in handy.  You'll be able to have a rooting interest in the day's races, make some plays, and keep your handicapping sharp.  Then, when the great opportunities arise, you can confidently take the rubber band off the "main" bankroll with confidence.  I prefer to be patient, but I've used a variation of Tinky's two-bankroll strategy for a long time now, and it works for me.

As for playing the picks I post, well, I'd be kind of a sandbagger if I didn't.  Unless there's really an extenuating circumstance (horse throws himself in paddock, etc.), I'll play at least an action bet on my plays.

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tony kelso,
You had to be doing the high 5 when you saw Cribnote blowing the turn coming home. Do you think he was the best colt in the race? I was thinking he may have been.
Steve T,
You have probably pitched your
DRF from yesterday, but, if I understand zig-zag the same way you see it, Causation in the 11th at Ellis Park was a classic example. I hope Dan gets a chance to comment on your query.
new york gerry

I'm usually very leery of horses that are as green as Cribnote.  They have the ability to be stakes-winners, but are often too immature for their own good, and those bad habits are very hard to kick.  Remember Numaany?  His maiden win sent everyone over the moon after he bolted during the stretch run, but he's yet to live up to his potential.  Horses that have a tendency to make their own trouble are often poor bets at short prices. 
It would be great if we could put instructional videos up, but I have absolutely no idea where to begin.

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Speaking of Divine Park -- It seemed to me that he was pretty much eased. That didn't seem like a representative performance, so maybe he'll show up on the DL?
Kyri


It wouldn't surprise me if there was something wrong with him.  I was thumbing through some old papers as I continue to slowly update the DL, and found this from David Grening's column on July 16.

"...Divine Park has only worked once since beating Commentator in the Met. He was sent to the Mid-Atlantic Equine Clinic earlier this week for a bone scan that didn't reveal any abnormalities.
"He's okay," McLaughlin said. "We were being a little cautious. He was taking a little bit of [time to] warm up. He got a clean bill of health..."

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Second of all, can anyone tell me-is the Going Wild that won the Zip Pocket over the weekend the same horse that was on the Derby trail back in '05?
Rogi

It certainly is, and he's found a second wind in New Mexico.

Here are his lifetime past performances:

Download GoingWild.pdf

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Anyone hear how a former 3-year old crush of mine, georgie boy, is progressing? I ani know he's still on the DL but I was wondering if anyone has heard anything with regard to him?
Lawduck07


I just put his most recent workout on the Disabled List.  I'm hoping to be all caught up in a week or two.

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Anyone know what happened to Monastery Scandal or Preachinatthebar(Socal0? Does Baffert still train Sequoyah @ Ellis Park and Steve t. do you play Fairplex and do you think it could be a good meet to watch Tyler and Pedroza hammer it out? Aslo, any angles like you gave on DMR opening day. thanks.
LAne


Preachinatthebar stands at the JEH Stallion Station in Texas.  Here is his page from their website:

http://www.jehstallionstation.com/?id=2&s=34

Monastery Scandal broke down on March 1, 2008 at Santa Anita, and was euthanized. 

Sequoyah just worked at Ellis Park on August 28, but I'm not sure if Baffert is training him. 

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Dan,
Do you have any word on how Colors Flying is progressing? Who is his trainer? When is he scheduled to debut? Any information is appreciated.
Thanks.

Calvin Carter

Colors Flying (A.P. Indy - Storm Flag Flying, by Storm Cat) is a Phipps homebred, and is trained by Shug McGaughey.  He worked a half-mile out of the gate at Saratoga on August 29, and seems to be getting close to his debut.  It looks like the August 29 workout went in company with Conservative (Unbridled's Song - Oh What A Windfall, by Seeking the Gold), another Phipps homebred. 

***

Be back Friday with some weekend stakes analysis and more.

Take care,

Dan

chris lowe More than 1 year ago
Look out for Fire Marshal in the 7th @ Bel.Third off a layoff now, and third career start was a corker!{if they get that far on Saturday}
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Cayman01 LOL! You're GOOD, REAL GOOD! Are you sure you don't do this novella stuff as a side job? SR Vegas
Calvin Carter More than 1 year ago
Alan, Turfway Park Fall Championship - Telling. Woodbine Mile - Ventura.
Ivan More than 1 year ago
For Saturday at Belmont: 1. Sonny's the One, Saumon Fume, Five Card Poker 2. Snuckinsnuckout, Jerry's My Daddy, Open Sleigh 3. Raw Silk, Pure Clan/Ariege, Backseat Rhythm 4. Peleliu, Sorority Sister, Holy Trouble 5. Credit Limit, Who Plays Brahms, Smarty Marty 6. Ide Rejoice, One Starry Nite, Ty's Ridge 7. A Zero Trap, Arrrr, Wolfson 8. Coyoteshighestcall, Cielo Song, Unbridled Danger 9. Indian Blessing, Rite Moment, Little Belle 10. Brazen Action, Head Heart Hoof, Clever Martini BEST BET: Indian Blessing LONGSHOT: Raw Silk Good Luck!!!
Annie More than 1 year ago
Turn Back The Alarm, That's wonderful news about Lava Man. They all deserve this and I only wish they were all taken care of after their careers. Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Cayman, That was great! So funny! Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Justin, Thank you for the input on Mushka. Good luck today! Annie
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
Alan, TP Fall Championship- Delightful Kiss Woodbine Mile- Kip Deville Thanks,
Steveincleveland More than 1 year ago
Alan, Please give me Telling and Kip Deville for the contest. Thank you.
Turn Back The Alarm More than 1 year ago
Did anyone else read at Bloodhorse that Lava Man is on his way to Old Friends? Here is the link: http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46910.htm My mom and I went to visit the last time the Breeder's Cup was in KY. The owner, Mike Blowen is a great guy. He LOVES those horses. I always had a soft spot for Kiri's Clown and Awad and had the good fortune to give them a pat and a carrot. Lava Man will have a great life and lots of fans will get to visit.