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9/11/13: $137k Double Carry at Belmont
By Steven Crist
1:15 pm: It's a hot and humid Wednesday at Belmont Park, where nobody picked six opening weekend, creating a $137, 011 pick-6 carryover for the third day of the meeting. Time to jump in the pool.
It's a tough sequence, spanning the 4th through 9th races and starting at 2:38 pm ET. It begins with 11 2-year-old statebred fillies, seven of them making their debuts, going 7f on the Widener turf. The second leg features a heavy favorite who hasn't raced since being vanned off the track July 6. The third leg is for older maiden fillies and 5 of the 10 are making their belated first starts. And that's just the first half of it.
Still, with NYRA dark 6 of the last 8 days and a nice free ante in the pick-6 pool, I'll take a whack, and in the course of the afternoon maybe we can all get caught up on opening weekend (which I spent in Toronto) and the new pick-5 bet that started Saturday.
1:25 pm: Here the pick-6 lineup after scratches:
Very impressive performance in the opener by stakes-bound 3-year-old filly Wedding Toast, who demolished a couple of stakes-place N1x opponents by 14 3/4 lengths. In her third career start, the Darley homebred by Street Sense led all the way, running her first 6f in 1:10.59 and then turning in a final quarter of 23.47 for a sensational final time of 1:34.06 for the mile.
1:55 pm: Goodlooking 2yo turf debut in the second by Klaravich/Chad Brown firster Shadow Banking ($4.80). Off slowly, the Harlan's Holiday colt, a $250k auction purchase in March and a half-brother to Stormy Len, rallied to loop the field and draw off by 6 1/4 lengths.
2:15 pm: Here's the pick-6 play. At least I'll be alive after the opening leg:
Clement firster Easy Living (#2) opened the 2-1 favorite in the 4th and is the second choice to second-timer Star Grazing (#1, 3-1ML, 8-1 now) in doubles and pick-3's.
2:55 pm: Summerdale, 27-1 Jeremiah Englehart firster, won early duel and just lasted over 5-2 Easy Living despite final furlong in 13.82 to win the 4th and raise the spectre of a triple carryover to Thursday.The Robert Hahn homebred by More Than Ready ran the 7f in 1:24.82.
Here are the willpays into the 5th, the last leg of the new pick-5:
I tried a little 2x2x2xallx4 (352 combos @ $0.50)=$176) as a hedge against a chaotic race-4 result, and it would have been a swell outcome in that respect had my 2x2x2 start included the winner of the 3rd, but it didn't.
This was only the third day of the NYRA pick-5, which features both a 50-cent minimum and a takeout rate of just 15 percent. I have not given it enough time and thought yet but am inclined to do so pretty quickly, because the first month or two of these bets when they're new tend to be the most lucrative while everyone's figuring out how to play them.
Here's what happened the first two days of the pick-5:
Saturday 9/7: Chalky results, with the first five winners paying $7.40, $7.10, $2.90, $5.80 and $5.60. The return was $780 for $2 from a gross pool of $238,514.
Sunday 9/8: A couple of prices led to a very different outcome: $16.80, $6.40, $6.90, $2.80 and $34.60 combined for a payout of $34,384 for $2, and the pool was $212,466.
3:00 pm: Non Stop, co-second choice at 7-1 behind 4-5 He's So Chic in upcoming 5th, was just scratched with 9 MTP.
3:20 pm: Not enough pace (45.99) for 4-5 He's Too Chic, as Chasing Moonlight drew off at 9-2 with 9-year-olds Real Estate and He's Too Chic second and third behind him. Pick-5 paid $9,539 for $2, nearly three times return of $3,392 pick-4 for adding $3.30 winner in first to winners of 2nd through 5th. Today's pick-5 pool was $165,628.
3:55 pm: My Place, fast-working Mott firster, came back at rail to edge 14-1 Sylvia T as the 5-2 fave in the 7th. The 3-year-old Elusive Quality filly, an $85k yearling two Septembers ago, ran the 6.5f in 1:18.10 under Castellano.
4:20 pm: Princess Adelyn, 9-1 McLaughlin firster, chased 8-5 So Royal from the start and ran her down in the stretch to become the fourth first-timer to win today in five maiden races.
Triple carry? If so, here's the Thursday pick-6 sequence -- two statebred maiden races, three conditioned claimers and a starter allowance:
5:00 pm: Cheyenne Nation, desperate winner for $35k last time, stepped up to N2x/$62k level and held off Tiz Gianni to win the 8th for Dubb/Rodriguez and yield the following willpays into the 9th and final race of the day. Four of the eight are covered in the finale, each with one live combo that would return $423,424. The NYRA Rewards screen is missing the red asterisks, but the track feed says the other payoffs (on the #'s 2,6,7,8) are for 5 of 6.
It appears that the person alive to those four horses would have the only four consos if the #6, 7 or 8 wins, since there would only be four consos total. A few more people would back into consos if #2, who appears the likeliest winner among the uncovered horses, wins.
5:25 pm: Whoever was alive to the 1,4,5 and 10 completed an extraordinary day of handicapping by running 1-2-3-4 (it finished 10-5-4-1) in the finale to take down the $423,424 grand prize. So no triple-carry, but if you're playing tomorrow, be aware that there's a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms, rising to 80 percent by early evening.
Can't afford reaching after 5 or 6 horizontal hurdles (4's my limit) but I was curious to see if the P5 would generate similar added winnings versus the P4 as the P4 did to the P3. Was no reason do believe it wouldn't, but the early numbers are a lot more than I expected. I wonder how much money today's P6 casher put in to their score, and what % of players were dead and buried after the first leg? Ouch.
Steve, What are your thoughts on NYRA showing how many live tickets are left in the Pk6 after each race like some other tracks do? I think it makes it more appealing to those looking for the lottery type pay out... [I like it. More info can only educate all of us about the bet and how it works, and I see no downside. -SC]
Steve, Finally got my iPad working properly and was able to read your blog above. FWIW, if my math is right, the pick five on 09-08-13 paid a 586% overlay compared to the parlay. So, I can see why you are going to take advantage of this new bet. Have a great evening!
Steve, why is it when a horse hits the ground, whether it be dirt or turf, in the publics eye, is that horse NOT scratched? I used to race harness horses and if that happened, the horse was scratched and not allowed to run. Very tramatic to the animal when this happens and really not fair to the betting public.
Steve: Thanks for clarifying the will pays and the missing asterisks.
Considering the size of the willpays on live tickets hoping some hedge wagers make faves here into overlays. If this carries, hope to see you back here tomorrow, Steve
Steve, why is NYRA not publishing where the winning ticket was purchased and how much it cost on these near impossible looking days with large carryovers? [They often do, especially when there's just one winning ticket. Don't think anyone's trying to conceal anything. -SC] [Update 6 pm: NYRA just announced that the lone winning ticket was in fact purchased through NYRA Rewards. -SC]
Steve, i have a question. Why offer a Bet if you don't promote, or at least expose it, to customers? The GrandSlam, which i admit at first thought was the result of Bill Nadar having to much time on his hands while at NYRA, is a FUN diversion from standard wagers. Knocking a 1/5 out of One Leg early can often turn a $9 Winner into a $144 Win. BUT NYRA does nothing with it. Last year, when the new website started, they removed total Grand Slam pool size along with the will-pays. NOW, you can't even get Will-Pays from the NYRA toteboard! Can you find out if they're just trying to kill it off? Thanks. [I don't think there are any plans to discontinue it, but after nearly a decade, it's still struggling to handle $50k a day and thus gets the same minimal promotional attention as the 2nd and 4th race quinellas. -SC]
Hi Steve, Did you notice that the pick 5 paid almost triple the amount of the pick 4 ($9,539 versus $3,3392). Quite a difference considering the 1st race was a heavy favorite thta paid $3.30. Any thoughts? TIA [Yes, I wrote exactly that at 3:20 pm. -SC] P.S. Glad to see you posting the blog today and good luck on the pick 6.
as a regular player of the p5 here in So Cal, it is basically a p4 with 1/2 the takeout. You will see payoffs with 1-2 favorites of 8/5 or less and no bombs pay over $5k, it's an excellent bet, my wonder is will they do as we did in So Cal and CANCEL the p4 from races 2-5, it's nice if you lose race 1 in p5 as a saver but does cannibalize the p5. Enjoy it's a very profitable wager.
- 1.Posted 12/02/2013 02:02PM
- 2.Posted 12/02/2013 12:25PM
- 3.Posted 12/01/2013 06:53PM
- 4.Posted 12/01/2013 08:25PM
- 5.Posted 11/30/2013 05:05PM