Mike Watchmaker

Hansen’s withdrawal this morning (Monday) from the Preakness, following the defection of Trinniberg a couple of days earlier, means that, unless something bizarre happens or we suddenly get a new shooter with lots of early speed, the pace in Saturday’s Preakness will be very different from the scorching pace we saw in the Kentucky Derby.

If you want to start searching for the Preakness winner, the best place to look is the Kentucky Derby. This is not just a feeling or a suspicion. The numbers strongly back this up. In looking back at the last 15 Preaknesses, from 1997 through 2011, only three, or just 20%, were won by horses who did not start in the Kentucky Derby. Those winners were Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000.

Happy Derby Day from Churchill Downs.

Hello from Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day, where it is a sultry morning more befitting August in Miami. Local weather forecasters do think there is a reasonably good chance for afternoon storms, which I guess also means there is a reasonably good chance we might escape a shower. The point is, keep an eye on the weather, especially for the impact it might have on multi-race exotics wagers. Track conditions could change quickly. I’ll be back from time to time during the day with thoughts on the stakes and on how the track might be playing. See you later.

It’s difficult getting a word in about anything other than the Kentucky Derby right now, especially with the big day less than a week away. But To Honor and Serve’s victory in the Westchester at Belmont and Endorsement’s win in the Texas Mile at Lone Star were performances Saturday that shouldn’t be allowed to fall through the cracks.