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12 Grade 1 races!!!
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational:
Much will be made of Proudinsky running three times in five weeks (if he does compete this afternoon), but he ran quite well when second to Big Brown at Monmouth last time out, and he has the stout German breeding necessary to navigate this demanding 12 furlong distance. Plus, he's run very well on wet turf courses in the past, and should benefit from all the rainfall the Belmont green has received over the last couple of days. With Presious Passion likely to dictate a solid pace, Proudinsky can rally from the second flight while getting the jump on confirmed closers like Dancing Forever.
Strike a Deal ran a big race when second in his 2008 debut in the Volponi, but he's disappointed me in his three subsequent starts. His most recent defeat at Woodbine was terrible as the 9-10 chalk as he was a bit eager early, and didn't change leads until late in the stretch. This distance may be a bit far, but he may sit a good spot while closest to Presious Passion.
Dancing Forever made a dramatic stretch move to win the Manhattan as he altered course sharply to the hedge in late stretch. He seemed a bit washed out going to the post of the Sword Dancer last time as the favorite, though, and never got on track. He's been given plenty of time by Shug McGaughey, and his 'A' race is probably more than enough to win this.
Grand Couturier ran into trouble in the upper stretch of the Sword Dancer, but Alan Garcia sat chilly, waited for another hole to materialize, and shot on through. Grand Couturier wouldn't mind a little cut in the ground, but his best efforts have come at Saratoga. Summer Patriot will run all day, but steps up in class.
Selections: Proudinsky, Strike a Deal, Dancing Forever
Jockey Club Gold Cup:
As a fan, I want Curlin to romp by multiple lengths, thus setting up the race of the year with Big Brown and company in the Breeders' Cup Classic. While that seems like the probable scenario on paper, you can't take 2-5 or less on Curlin to Win. You guys and gals know that I'm a big Wanderin Boy supporter, and while he's a cut below the top class handicap horses, he can get brave if you give him a loose lead on a wet track. I think he's making the front at all costs here as he doesn't seem comfortable passing other rivals, and he was only beaten three lengths by Curlin in the Woodward despite failing to make the front. At the least, I get a cheap thrill on the lead. At the most, I pull off a huge upset with limited financial investment.
Curlin is the most likely winner, and the 'A' play on multi-race tickets. While many critics focus on his all-out stretch drive in the Woodward, few remember that he was pin-balled going into the first turn. He's a deserving champion, and is always capable of putting on a dramatic performance.
Mambo in Seattle's photo finish defeat in the Travers broke my heart and bankroll. He's stepping up to face older horses, but this colt has a lot of upside potential, and would benefit greatly if Wanderin Boy faces pressure up front from Merchant Marine and Timber Reserve.
Merchant Marine looks to add Curlin's scalp to the impressive collection cultivated by "Giant-Killer" Allen Jerkens. Timber Reserve's recent optional claiming win at Saratoga was awesome, and it shows what this oft-injured son of Forest Camp can do when he's feeling good.
Selections: Wanderin Boy, Curlin
Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship:
It looks like a three-horse race on paper. Out of Control got hurt after being nosed out in the Manhattan, and then was thrown into the fire against Curlin on dirt in his return to the races. He's back on his best surface here, is reunited with Garrett Gomez, and arguably has more tactical speed than his main rivals.
Red Giant ships West for Pletchazquez, and has been freshened up after scoring over yielding ground in the Fourstardave. He successfully handled this distance in last year's Virginia Derby, and is capable of a breakout performance.
Spring House is a very good turf horse, and he was much the best in the Del Mar Handicap. He likes to come from well off the pace, and it will be interesting to see if Julio Canani has him fully cranked up here with the Breeders' Cup on the horizon.
Transduction Gold made a wide move in the Del Mar 'Cap, but was no match for Spring House in the lane. You Got Me Rocking may try to steal it on the front end.
Selections: Out of Control, Red Giant, Spring House
The match-up of the day pits Hystericalady against Zenyatta, and most 'cappers are siding with the former citing Hystericalady's major pace advantage. While Hystericalady is a top, top filly, and her pace edge is compelling, it's quite possible that Zenyatta is simply a freak of nature. Her win in the Hirsch at Del Mar was amazing. She was off a half-length slowly, and far off the early pace. She angled sharply from the rail to the three path on the turn, and then inhaled the leader without taking a deep breath. It was a masterful effort from a filly that has yet to taste defeat, and I just can't go against her after watching that effort.
It's hard to make a strong case for any of the others. Wake Up Maggie and Super Freaky ran one-two in the Adoration at Del Mar, but this is obviously tougher. Santa Teresita chased Zenyatta in vain at Hollywood.
Selections: Zenyatta, Hystericalady
Don't really have a firm grasp on this race at all so will spread. Street Boss is the horse to beat based on his four race win streak, and favorable pace scenario. He has a powerful stretch kick, and he overcame the inside post to win the Bing Crosby going away.
Cost of Freedom was claimed by John Sadler at Del Mar, and promptly recorded at 110 Beyer Speed Figure in his first start for the new connections. He then was a vet scratch on September 3. You don't know what you're going to get with this horse, but if he goes off at a big price, he's worth a flier.
I'm a big Sailors Sunset fan, and will use him in all sorts of gimmicks. He ran very well in the Bing Crosby as he was embroiled in a four-horse duel while three wide and in between horses, and was the only part of the pace around at the end. He hasn't won in over a year, however, and his most recent start lacked punch. He likes to go to the front, and may be compromised by the other speeds, but that race two back stands out to me.
Delta Storm looks like the latest Mike Mitchell success story. Claimed for $40,000 by Mitchell at Churchill Downs in May, Delta Storm is now two for three in Southern California including a stakes win in at Del Mar. Idiot Proof received a nice prep on the turf at Del Mar, and will be running and gunning here. He wouldn't be a surprise, and looks like a nice sleeper for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. In Summation's career was resurrected by synthetic surfaces, and he can sit just off the expected hot pace.
Selections: Cost of Freedom, Street Boss, Sailors Sunset
Stardom Bound looked like a strong favorite, but she was kicked by a pony yesterday, and her participation is now questionable. I'll give Montana Fields one more try here as I liked her maiden win two back, and she should handle the added distance quite nicely. She was no match for Stardom Bound, but if that one scratches, this race becomes a wide-open affair.
If Stardom Bound runs, she's obviously the one to beat, but this latest injury coupled with her inexperience at this distance, and poor gate habits make her hard to take at short odds. Toro Bonito goes two sprints to a route for Baffert, has enough speed to find a good spot going into the first turn, and may get the jump on the closers. Magic Roberta is a maiden tackling winners, but is bred to go long on the bottom, and she wasn't disgraced when only beaten a length by Toro Bonito at Del Mar. Palacio de Amor looms the speed of the race, but she shook loose in the Del Mar Debutante, and proved no match for Stardom Bound while late to change leads.
Selections: Montana Fields, Stardom Bound, Toro Bonito, Magic Roberta
Wait a While won this race in 2006, and signaled a return to top form with her most recent start in New York. She loves this firm turf course, and has the tactical speed to find a good spot despite her far outside post position. Black Mamba has really turned it up a notch in her last two starts, and looks like the best of the local contingent. I Can See is more of a bridesmaid than a consistent winner, but she has a strong late kick, and can get a piece of this. Vacare appreciate the class relief in her most recent race at Del Mar, but I still wonder if she's lost a step from last year.
Selections: Wait a While, Black Mamba, I Can See
Looked at this race for over an hour, and still have no idea so will spread with little confidence. I'm intrigued with Spirit One despite the fact that his win in the Arlington Million was aided by an easy lead coupled with the cat-and-mouse tactics of the foes that were chasing him. Can he run as well on a synthetic surface? Can he handle tougher pace opposition? Those questions are valid, but they also may keep some money away from him. I'll give him a shot to prove himself if the price is right. Tres Borrachos didn't do anything in the Travers, but he beat Colonel John with a rail-skimming ride in the Swaps, and may receive a similar ground-saving trip here. Well Armed is an extremely consistent runner, and should appreciate turning back in distance. He may be better when on the lead instead of chasing so we'll see what Aaron Gryder does with him coming out of the gate. Zappa may want more ground to work with although he should get a strong pace setup. Surf Cat is a battle-hardened veteran that has overcome his share of injuries. He's another that will likely contest the pace. Slew's Tiznow showed a lot of class in winning the El Cajon in his first start of the year following various physical ailments. Albertus Maximus, Tiago, and Mostacolli Mort should all receive the pace necessary to properly setup their late rallies. While Mast Track stole the Hollywood Gold Cup on the lead, he ran sneaky well in the Pacific Classic, and can't be ignored despite his outside post. What a fun, but extremely difficult race to handicap!
Selections: Spirit One, Tres Borrachos, Well Armed
Sunday's Grade 1 race is for juvenile colts, and they've come from just about everywhere in the country to run here. Regal Ransom was an impressive debut winner at Saratoga over a demanding seven-furlong distance, and may attempt to shake loose stretching out to two turns while breaking from the rail. Street Hero is still a maiden, but he had a terrible, terrible trip two back, and was only beaten three-quarters of a length for all the marbles in the Del Mar Futurity. The addition of blinkers may put him over the hump. Silent Valor, Midshipman, and Azul Leon all boast multiple wins. Silent Valor showed versatility by coming from off the pace to win the Sapling at Monmouth. Midshipman has done everything right going short for Baffert. Azul Leon was forced to the seven path turning for home, and was herded in between horses in the late stages of the Best Pal. Another tough race to handicap featuring some quality runners.
Selections: Regal Ransom, Street Hero, Silent Valor
More importantly, who do you like this weekend? I'd like to know.
Back on Monday evening with the stakes and Beyer recap.
Slew I am on the road. Call me at cell #520-256-7313 if you can get free tomorrow or Monday.Don't worry about what time you call.
Alex, Thanks for your input. I had to go back and review the stamina index outlined by Sir Charles Leicester and the term “AWD” may not have been the best illustration to help one understand the purpose of the stamina index. Here’s the stamina index according to Sir Charles Leicester: “Galton’s Law is commonly used amongst bloodstock breeders to determine the probable staying capacity of an unraced horse or to estimate the probable distance ability of a foal which will result from a certain mating. It is known as the animal’s stamina index.” So the stamina index is not based upon the sire’s progeny AWD but it is based upon the actual known racing distance capabilities of each ancestor in the first four generations of the foals pedigree. The racing distance capabilities of each ancestor is used to determine the stamina index for the unraced foal. For example, Rainstorm’s parents – Hainault was a 12 furlong horse; Stormcloud was a 6 furlong horse. Add those together 12 + 6 = 18 divided by 2 = 9 furlongs for the average racing distance of the first generation. The second generation: Swynford 14 furlongs; Bromus 5 furlongs; The Tetrarch 8 furlongs; Lancaster Lady 8 furlongs. Add those together 14 + 5 + 8 + 8 = 35 divided by 4 = 8.75 furlongs for the average racing distance of the second generation. Repeat that process for the third and fourth generation ancestors and use the formula outlined in the earlier post and the stamina index of Rainstorm is 9.47 furlongs. I hope that helps to clarify the stamina index. It is hard to illustrate and I wish I could show you the book. The term AWD is not the best one to use and I’m sorry for any confusion. The stamina index is determined by calculating the actual known racing distance (not the AWD) of each ancestor in the first four generations of the pedigree.
RE: Contest suggestion for Alan Alan, You certainly have created a well thought out and fun contest and the extensive time that you've put into administering the contest is greatly appreciated by me and I suspect everyone else. I do have one suggestion for the future. I like the net gain/loss feature but I do think that any race not played should reflect a penalty to account for the track take out that those playing the races are up against. My suggestion is a deduction of $1 (25% of $4 wager) per race not played which naturally is just a little higher than the players face as a take out for Win and Place wagers. I think this would make the contest much more fair and at the same time not kill those who come in late or miss some races as they would merely be assessed a penalty just above the actual take out that we're all playing against.
Slew, Your welcome, I think (grin). Overall, the IM did ok this weekend. I had the winner of the KY Cup Fillies Juvenile, the trifecta for the Colts Juvenile, the exacta for the Oak Leaf and the trifecta for the Norfolk. I'll post Iron Maidens analysis of the Pilgrim and Miss Grillo tomorrow.
Okay a quick P6-carry over story for Oak Tree at SA tomorrow: ...Once I GOT FREE to spend time at Uncle Steve's chat room, it had been NO LAUGHING MATTER. So, cocktail in hand I was glad to relax & chat for a bit. Laura was the PERFECT HOSTESS for the late night hours. Until UNUSUAL JANE & UNUSUAL HEATHER showed up...What, you say? Where did they come from? Well, Obviously they were in the wrong chat place & left only after swinging from the ceiling fans, and checking out the fish tank....No, No...you all can ASKQUESTIONSLATER. SR Vegas
Steve T; I have been watching Colonel Jonh's workouts since you first posted the YouTube link of him before the Kentucky Derby. You are correct that his works appear to be different, and while it may be a result of an equipment change (as suggested by C), I believe it is more a consequence of his maturity. To me, his workouts remind me of the races run by his papa. Colonel John's latest did make me take note, and I did go back and re-watch it after your post. I am intrigued. Van Savant
The racing gods giveth and taketh away. Went out to play a handful of races at SA on Sunday. Caught a Lion Heart Maiden ( Lion Heart Victory) who opened the M/L at 7/2, drifted up toward 10 and was 7/1 at race time. No complaints on this end. My good forturne ran out in the closer. (MSW 44k 5 6 1/2 f) I box a Candy Ride (Candy is quicker) with a Unusual Heat (Usual QT). Ride is 24/1 heads to the lead and gets passed at the wire by Usual QT who is 70/1...Unfortunately, they both get passed by Alan Garcia on a 43-1 shot for Mandella. So that scream of anguish you heard was me last night. To his credit, Alan Garcia is riding beautifully these days, If you can, I would recommend watching his ride on the 5th at Belmont from last Thursday (9/25) IIRC, it was 6 on the turf, and he is riding for Linda r. Horse stumbles out of the gate and basically hops for the first four jumps. Somehow alan gets him straight, takes his outside a bit then pulls the trigger, shoots through a ever narrowing gap and hits the wire. Amazing ride.
For the pedigree experts out there. Laura, Calvin, Tinky and others I've missed. What's your opinion of a Curlin/ Zenyatta hookup? I am no pedigree guru (my eyes start glazing over),but I think the offspring might be scary good. Katie, Handigambling 104 is the grass feature at SA on wednesday. I believe it's the 7th.
Calvin Carter - I'm pretty sure that any formula based on AWD isn't going to be particularly useful for making accurate stamina predictions. The problem is that AWD itself is based too much on opportunity and not enough on ability. To make matters worse, some of the biases in AWD are systematic...not just random "noise". For example, if everyone believes that Boundary is a sire of sprinters, then owners of his offspring will tend not to enter them in routes...resulting in a very low AWD for Boundary that may or may not reflect reality. Coming up with a more accurate stamina rating is something I'd like to tackle, but I believe it will only be possible with full past performances for a very large set of horses...something that I don't currently have the budget for.
Annie, Nice job: Cayman01:Agree with you on AaronGryder and TropicStorm, the horse needs a jock change. And AG on the Trf. ALL and Annie:Lots of races to pick from this weekend.