| DAN_ILLMAN: | Hi everybody, thanks for coming out. I think
we're ready to begin |
| Y: | Q: Exactas, Trifectas, Pick 6, Pick 4, Pick 3, etc. - with so many different
ways to wager on BC day, what is your theory on "the best bet" for such an important day of racing? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm a big fan of the Pick 4's, and will be playing them with both fists.
There's going to be a lot of money... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | in the pools, and bettors can take a shot with a medium to good-sized ticket.
That being said, if I really love... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | a horse, I will play that one to win since we've seen many times that there
is value in that wager on big days. |
| MilwaukeeBruce: | Q: How much value should I put on horses that really are
comfortable and run well at Churchill Downs? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Obviously, it's a plus if they've handled the surface in the past, but it's
not something that I'm going to put too much stock in... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | These are the best of the best, and they should be able to translate their
class and ability on any track. |
| goldy: | Q: what is your take on poly? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm all for it if it's safe for the horses. While Woodbine has seen several
breakdowns at their meet, Keeneland seemed safe... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | When I handicap Polytrack, I don't distinguish between turf and dirt form.
I'm only looking for good form... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | As for handicapping off the Poly form to conventional dirt, I'll go with more
of a visual approach than a numbers approach until I'm more comfortable with the par time data. |
| premiumtap: | Q: Who are your singles in the late pick 4? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Well, Bernardini is going to be my single as well as most of the betting
world. I think he's the best horse, and he's going to win. I'm going to also single Pine Island... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think she's a terror, and she's my best bet on the card. She is such a big
filly that it doesn't bother me that she's tackling elders, and she tries hard every time... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Also, that Shug guy knows how to train fillies. So, I'm going to single
Bernardini and Pine Island, and spread in the two turf races. |
| Hillman: | Q: Dan, in the Juvenile fillies there seems to be a ton of early
speed.Can Cash Included rate off the fast fractions and get a dream trip ?? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think so. She was very impressive in the Oak Leaf. She was up close to the
pace on a speed-favoring track, but I think she can rate just off the pace... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Appealing Zophie and Lilly Carson figure to be carving things out, and Cash
Included should be just off the pace. I loved the way she galloped out after the Oak Leaf, and she's my top choice in the
JF |
| TheCheapSpeed: | Q: Do you give Scorpion a shot at a price? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I give him a big shot. I can't separate Scorpion from Hurricane Run, and
Scorpion will go off at much better odds. Remember that Scorpion was off a whole year before his last race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | in Europe so he was likely a short horse that day. I don't love the race, and
will use others, but Scorpion is a true stayer, and has more tactical speed than HR. I'm using him. |
| little_rocker: | Q: Dan, will post positions effect the Sprint outcome. Who's
helped/hurt?? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Perhaps not as much as in recent years as there is a significant run-up
before they start timing. That, in essence, makes the Sprint... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | an About 6f race. I'm not going to penalize the outside horses, and the
inside horses like Thor's Echo and Friendly Island have enough speed to extricate them from a tough spot. I'm visualizing a
clean race. |
| jefferson: | Q: I think Brother Derek has a chance. Do I need to take up
poker? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | What concerns me about Brother Derek is that he looks like Lava Man-lite. He
runs big in California, and flops anywhere else. Fourth in the Juvenile last year, fourth in the Derby, well-beaten by
Bernardini in the Preakness... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He does have a good post, and the third off the layoff line going for him,
but he has to improve many lengths to win. |
| Moshebud: | Q: Who do you like in the Mile which appears to have capable
horses? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | The Euros always look tough. With all the hype surrounding George Washington,
he would have been a heavy favorite in the race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | So why not use Araafa at 9/2 ML after he only got beat 1 1/4 lengths by GW in
the QEII? I'll use Araafa, Plenty of Light (Dettori's choice of the Godolphin duo),... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and Sleeping Indian as my longshot. Sleeping Indian was supposed to be
retired to stud after his last race, but they're going to run him here since GW isn't in the field. I respect Gorella a great
deal, but she's going to get bet, and will need an ideal trip. |
| jkk: | Q: Could lightning strike twice for Lemons Forever? Same track and distance.
OK I'm looking for a longshot. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I can't see it. This is a strong distaff. Besides Pine Island, you have Fleet
Indian off 8 straight victories, and several others with fast back races. How about Round Pond as a longshot in the same
race?... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She's third off the layoff, draws inside, and has run some quick races in the
past. She'll hopefully be more ratable. |
| DerbyDan: | Q: Dan, which race do you think is most likely to yield a HUGE price?
Extra credit... Who springs the upset! |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm thinking either the Juvenile or the Turf. The Juvenile is a deep race,
and a horse like Pegasus Wind may fall through the wagering cracks... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Lukas has been high on this one from day 1, and he'll be up on the pace. I
like that he'll get Lasix for the first time. Although not my top pick in the turf, I think that Red Rocks is an interesting
bomber. The last race was too far for him, and he's very professional. He was only beaten 2 lengths by the Arc winner 3
back. |
| PHILIPM: | Q: How badly do you think it affects Invasor that he missed his prep?
He's certainly thrown numbers that are in the ballpark with both Bernadini and Lava Man -- and I'm wondering if he might be a
"value play"? Your thoughts? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's got a lot of class, but I can't see the layoff helping him any. I'm not
sure that he'll offer the value based on the fact that you mentioned. His numbers are very good... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He'll either be second or third choice. |
| DaveK: | Q: I like Street Sense a lot at 20-1. Do you give him a chance to
win? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has a shot. As I said, the Juvenile is a very deep race, and a longshot
may be the way to go. Street Sense made this huge, premature move in the Breeders' Futurity, and was understandably tired
late. He needs to be held up better by Borel, but he has a strong kick, and has some upside. I'm using in my
exotics. |
| saratoga_slim: | Q: What do we do with Dreaming of Anna? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | That's one of the tough decisions on BC Day. In my opinion, she's been the
most visually impressive of all the JF runners... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Still, you're not supposed to play her at a short price since she's never
gone 2 turns, is returning from a layoff, and will face other speeds. She has a world of talent, but I'm going to try and
beat her. |
| Epic: | Q: Dan, how do you fancy Spun Sugar's chance in the distaff? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'll use her underneath. She was good enough to beat Pool Land and Balletto 2
back with a Beyer that would make her very competitive in this spot. Maybe she just didn't like Polytrack last time. I'm
keying Pine Island, but will use Spun Sugar in exactas. |
| DiceMan: | Q: Hi Dan: How valid and useful are Beyer Numbers in the large fields
and competitive Breeder Cup Races ? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | They're always useful in weeding out the pretenders, and isolating the
contenders. Then, from there, a handicapper should use his/her own process... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Whether it be trip handicapping, trainer angles, form cycle analysis,
etc... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | No matter what, I always start a race off by analyzing the BSF's to narrow
down the field. |
| ddmac: | Q: Dan, what are your thoughts on the West Coast runners coming from the
fast Calif tracks to Churchill Downs??? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I worry about horses like Bordonaro that are used to lightning-fast surfaces,
and are now running on a deeper surface. If the Cal horses have shown a tendency to rate, then I don't worry about it that
much. |
| atthewire: | Q: Will CD's long homestretch and closer-favoring history favor closers
on Saturday? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Chuchill has historically been a fair surface on Breeders' Cup day. I will
look twice at closers in the Sprint because of the run-up causing the "About 6 furlongs" distance. Other than that, I'm not
expecting a bias. |
| atthewire: | Q: Who benefits most from rain and the soft track/off-track it would
produce? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think that Pegasus Wind will move up in the Juvenile, and Kelly's Landing,
War Front, and Pomeroy become more interesting in the Sprint... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Don't laugh, but Flower Alley and Lawyer Ron may move up on an off track in
the Classic. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Of course, they'll need a monsoon. |
| tiz_magee: | Q: Are there any horses that you think could move forward after running
on Polytrack? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Her Majesty is my longshot in the JF behind Cash Included and Octave. She's
gained a lot of fitness by running over the Poly at TP and KEE, and she has shown a good deal of ability. First Lasix and
blinkers don't hurt either. |
| boboo: | Q: Who do you think is the most vulnerable favorite on the card? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Fleet Indian. She's won all those races in a row, and for some reason, I'm
not impressed. |
| aparagon4u: | Q: Dan can any of the following wire their respective fields: Lilly
Carson, Badge of Silver or Dancing Edie? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | No, no, and no. Or for my wagering sake, I hope not. Lilly Carson is going to
face intense pressure from Appealing Zophie, and then if she disposes of her... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | will have to face the second wave of Dreaming of Anna and Cash Included.
Badge of Silver should have a fairly easy lead, but that layoff is tough to ignore, and Dettori on Echo of Light won't let
him get too far away...Dancing Edie has to deal with My Typhoon, and then Wait a While. |
| Longshots: | Q: Do you think that Silverfoot has any chance of hitting the board in
the BC Turf? 4 for 4 on Churchill turf! |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I can see a longshot winning the Turf, and Silverfoot was against a speed
bias over a boggy Kentucky Downs turf course last time out... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Still, I've never been a fan of his, and he beat Ramazutti (a rabbit for most
of the year) by only a neck in the Louisville Handicap. He just doesn't class up to me. |
| cupcakes: | Q: wait awhile has been as dominant this year as any. so why is ouija
board a heavy favorite? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Ouija Board has faced tough older males like Dylan Thomas, Electrocutionist,
and Shirocco, and classy fillies like Alexander Goldrun... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Wait a While beat Dancing Edie in the Yellow Ribbon. Wait a While has
astounding ability, but she's going to face a battle-hardened runner in Ouija Board. |
| Sunday_Silence: | Q: Bordonaro has looked monstrous and drew outside Henny Hughes.
Like his chances? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | On Beyers, he is certainly a contender, and will likely be in front turning
for home. That being said, I'm not sure he's a match for Henny. Barring traffic trouble.. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Henny Hughes is going to sit just off the pace, and will be breathing down
Bordonaro's neck turning for home. Bordonaro is a fragile sort, and I'll be interested to see if he can put 2 big races back
to back without going on the shelf first. |
| baseballman: | Q: Any chance with sun king in the exacta? Aweful luck in past
races |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | His luck continued when he drew the outside post. I am one of Sun King's
biggest fans. He just got beat a nose in both the Met Mile... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and the Whitney, and he'll get some pace to run at in the Classic. I
certainly am going to use him underneath the chalk. |
| boboo: | Q: Dan you said you can see a longshot winning the turf... who do you
like? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | My top three picks in the paper are Scorpion, Hurricane Run, and Cacique. In
my pick fours, I'm going to use Red Rocks. Both Scorpion and Red Rocks are going to go off at good prices. |
| Focus959: | Q: The Distaff has been stolen on the front end in the past. What about
Healthy Addiction? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm a big fan of hers, but I'm worried that Round Pond, Fleet Indian, Pool
Land, and Bushfire will also have a say in the pace... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Also, Sharp Lisa's best races have come on or near the lead, and she'll get
blinkers on to sharpen her speed. If you like Healthy Addiction, she can rate and win. |
| Sunday_Silence: | Q: Thinking Invasor, Sun King, Premuim Tap and Giacomo underneath
Bernardini. Are you throwing any of those out? If so, why? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Giacomo is a pitch. He's the same horse he was when he ran in the Sham last
February. He just doesn't have that burst. I know that he loves the track and distance, and the pace is ideal, but I don't
think he's fast enough to get a piece of this. |
| barbaro_1: | Q: Do you believe siren lure's recent workout indicates that he will
not be his best on Saturday? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm not going to put too much stock in workouts for these older horses. Siren
Lure has been working quickly in California before the show Churchill move. If he gets beat, blame the string of layoff lines
instead of the work. |
| tmclean: | Q: Dan... Can Pomeroy run at any other track than the Spa? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | At 10-1 or better, I'm going to pay to find out. He broke his maiden in the
slop at Belmont, and has won at Monmouth, and pre-poly Turfway (dq'd from the win)... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He obviously loves the Spa. But, he ran well at Calder in his first start for
Wolfson, and he may be one of those intriguing stalker/closers moving on the turn. |
| jefferson: | Q: From a betting standpoint, which race are you looking forward to the
most? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | The Distaff because I love Pine Island. I'll play her to win at 3-1 or
better, and will key her up and down in exotics. Also, I can feel pretty good about singling in multi-race wagers. She's my
make or break horse on the day. |
| kelso31: | Q: What is good value for henny? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I wouldn't bet anyone to win under 2-1 in the Breeders' Cup, but "fair" odds
should have him at about 7/5 or 8/5. |
| PAUL1MC: | Q: In the Mile Rob Roy seems fresh and Librettist seems to have a strong
shot to rebound, any thoughts? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think that Rob Roy is an in-and-outer that got a nice setup in his last
race. I'm no fan of his. When healthy, Librettist is one of the best... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | milers in Europe, but he reportedly came back lame from his last race, and
now Dettori wants nothing to do with him. Of the two, I'd use Librettist, but I'm wary. |
| chub: | Q: Is Mauralakana that up-and-comer who can hit the board or possibly upset
the F&M Turf? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She's certainly solid, but she had every chance to beat Vacare last time out,
and couldn't run her down. She had a good trip that day, and now has to face Ouija and Wait a While. If you really want a
bomb in that race, try Quiet Royal. She's first-time Pletcher... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and had to angle sharply off the rail in the midstretch of her most recent
race. |
| 4stardave: | Q: I know you love Pine Island, but do you think Baletto can get in
there for a piece? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Sure. There's some pace in the race, and Balletto will be running at them
late. She's a nice horse, but she always seems to find one or two better. Consistent enough so I'll throw her in under/over
Pine Island to save. |
| mike_2: | Q: Dan, who had the best "hidden prep" of all BC runners? Good luck on
Sat. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Principle Secret was very impressive in the Norfolk. He did all the running
in his first start off the layoff, and hung in there all the way to the wire. He should be sharper on Saturday... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Also, horses like Street Sense and Her Majesty were hung out wide over the
Polytrack, and figure to have gained needed conditioning from those races. |
| tat4229: | Q: If I play Pletcher all day, will I go home with $$$ in my
pocket? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He should have a good day, but he'll likely be overbet in all of the races.
You may get a price on horses like Octave, Quiet Royal, Spun Sugar, and Pool Land so he's not the worst trainer to key on
) |
| Gary5789: | Q: seems like filmmaker going under the radar your thoughts? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I liked her last race, and she'll appreciate stretching back out to this
distance. I think that if her trip and Honey Ryder's trip was reversed that Film Maker would have won the Flower Bowl. She's
consistent, but will face some very tough foes in the FM Turf. |
| BlinkersOff: | Q: Euro Bomb me Dan. Give me a shot from across the pond on breeding
alone. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | David Junior is by Pleasant Top (second in both the sprint and Classic, and
half-brother to Derby winner Go For Gin)...He worked 1 furlong in 10 and change on the dirt before being sold at the 2yo in
training sale...He'll be a price that's for sure... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Sleeping Indian's dam is a half-sister to Bach (third in the BC Mile in
2003). |
| saratoga_slim: | Q: Who's going to have a better day--you or Carrothers? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Tune in to Blinkers Off tomorrow morning at 10:30 am on TVG to find
out. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Thanks for coming out everybody. Best of luck to all. Pick winners, make
money, have fun. |
