| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Breeders' Cup chat ... |
| Steven_Crist: | test |
| Trish_in_Colorado: | Q: Mr. Crist, if you had to single one horse in a Pick 6 on Breeder's Cup Day, who would you pick? |
| Steven_Crist: | First of all, good evening and thanks for coming. |
| Steven_Crist: | As for singling a horse, I hate to be obvious but.... |
| Steven_Crist: | I'll be singling Bernardini on most of my tickets -- not all, but about 75-80 percent of my play. |
| aparagon4u: | Q: Mr. Crist do you have any singles as of right now for the early or late P4? |
| Steven_Crist: | Well, if I'm alive after the first two legs of the pick-six.... |
| Steven_Crist: | Depending on my position I might hedge and play agaist Bernardini in the late pick 4.... |
| Steven_Crist: | As for the early pick 4, I really fon't see a single but I'll probably live and die.... |
| Steven_Crist: | With just Ouija Board and Wait and While in the FM Turf. |
| thematty: | Q: I want to take a stand against Ouija Board in the F&M Turf as I think she looks chalky and past her prime. Want to talk me out of not using her? |
| Steven_Crist: | I would only caution you that that's EXACTLY what people were saying about her a year ago.... |
| Steven_Crist: | And if Intercontinental hadn't gotten loose, OB would have won. I think she's a Hall of Fame quality horse and I;'d be terrified to leave her out. |
| Steven_Crist: | But I do think it's all her and Wait a While. |
| nooch: | Q: do you think the mile favors the european horses or the american horses? |
| Steven_Crist: | In general it favors the Europeans because until very very recently we didn't breed or race horses over here to be good turf milers... |
| Steven_Crist: | I think you lean in their direction the way you lean in our direction with six-furlong dirt horses. |
| Steven_Crist: | I don't see an American freak like a Lure or Steinlen this year. Personally, I'll be playing against aragorn. Nice nice horse but a serious underlay. |
| Peter: | Q: Steven, What are your thoughts on Hurrican Run in the Turf, do his last two sub-par efforts worry you or do you think his European form should translate to an easy victory in the Turf? |
| Steven_Crist: | That's one of the key questions of the day, because he would absolutely trample this field on his best day. |
| Steven_Crist: | My thinking is really split. On the one hand, the owner runs horses in the Cup whether or not they're at their prime. On the other hand, the trainer usually knows what he's doing. It's a gamble either way but I can't leave him out, even off his last two. Fortunately, I think the pecking order |
| Steven_Crist: | is pretty clear among the americans and you probably don't have to go too deep in the field to find the winner. |
| spartacus_goldstein: | Q: The Sprint looks pretty unpredictable. Are you for or against Henny Hughes? |
| Steven_Crist: | I'm against. |
| Steven_Crist: | I may be being pigheaded because I tried to beat him in both the Kings Bishop AND the Vosburgh and obvioously he cruised both times. But it's a little bit like Lost in the Fog last year.... |
| Steven_Crist: | in that he'll go off at a much shorter price than he should a)largely on the basis of races against 3yo's and b)without having faced really world-class early heat. |
| csheran: | Q: how bout dreaming of anna think she can run with these on the dirt |
| Steven_Crist: | That race is so inscrutable I wouldn't want to knock anyone, but I think you're supposed to play against her if she's one of the favorites. It's SO rare for top horses to be equally proficient on both surfaces and you;'re really taking the worst of it price-wise expecting her to transfer her form. |
| chopper: | Q: ow are you factoring the polytrack races, for example, Asi Siempre, the Alcibiades |
| Steven_Crist: | That's one of this year's big questions and it's going to get bigger with each passing year. The asi Siempre race |
| Steven_Crist: | makes absolutely no sense on paper -- world-class horses setting crawling fractions and all stopping badly. It's hard to know what to do except throw it out entirely and look for value on some of those |
| Steven_Crist: | who ran badly over it, l;ike Spun sugar, who I think is an interesting mid-longshot. |
| Steven_Crist: | The other race affected by Poly is the Juvenile fillies, since they saw fit to give every horse who ran in the alcibiades a starting berth. |
| aparagon4u: | Q: Can Badge of Silver go gate to wire in the Mile? |
| Steven_Crist: | If he does I'll be surprised. Then again, I HATED Intercontinental last year. But Badge of silver off a 10-month layoff reminds me more of when Frankel ran peace Rules in this race and I think he was last as the favorite. |
| northen_dancer: | Q: what 's your opinion of Octave in the juv fillies |
| Steven_Crist_2: | test |
| Steven_Crist_2: | Sorry, got disconnected there.... |
| northen_dancer: | Q: what 's your opinion of Octave in the juv fillies |
| Steven_Crist_2: | Octave could be used underneath but I can't get excited about her as a win candidate.... |
| Steven_Crist_2: | I thought she was bad not to win the Matron against Meadow Breeze, who is not a top horse... |
| Steven_Crist_2: | She only won the Adirondack because it collapsed, and she had no excuse at all in the Astoria. |
| Festin: | Q: Whats the best betting strategy for making a big hit. Other than picking 8 winners?. |
| Steven_Crist_2: | I would recommend the pick-fours. |
| Steven_Crist_2: | Personally I find it easier to eliminate horses from win contention than from 4th-place contention, which is why I prefer p4's to superfectas. But then I'm just more of a multirace, horizontal player. |
| warchant1: | Q: Steve, I'm looking for 1 solid single in the pick 6-- maybe two. Is it as easy as Ouija Board and Bernadini? |
| Steven_Crist_2: | I couldn't single Ouija Board because I think Wait a while could be equally special but I'm not going much deeper than those two. |
| Steven_Crist_2: | And much as I love to play against favorites, I just think Bernanardini is better than these horses. |
| Aaron: | Q: Steve...I see the Distaff as an absolute crapshoot...Whats a good way to capitalize on such races? |
| Steven_Crist_2: | If you truly believe it's a crapshoot, then you're supposed to pitch the favorites and try to hit a monster tri or super. Personally, I'd be surprised if Pine Island isn't part of the mix, and while I think Fleet Indian is vulnerable, I'd be a little surprised to see her entirely off the board. |
| Winooski__VT: | Q: I think the Mle is the toughet race to Handicap, do you have any advice? |
| Swale84: | Q: Steve.............. you called Fleet Indian "vulnerable". What do you see ??? |
| DRF_WebGrp_3: | Please be patient -- we're having some technical problems and Steve Crist will return momentarily ... |
| Steven_Crist: | test |
| Steven_Crist: | Sorry about that.....where were we? |
| DRF_WebGrp_2: | I think the Mle is the toughet race to Handicap, do you have any advice? |
| Steven_Crist: | If you're playing that race is vertical wagers, I really think you need a key horse.... |
| Steven_Crist: | It's VERY hard to eliminate horses from the 3/4 positions so you need to surround a key horse with the ones you like. Personally I find it very hard to get Gorella out of the exacta, and Araafa looks tough among the Euros. |
| DRF_WebGrp_2: | Steve.............. you called Fleet Indian "vulnerable". What do you see ??? |
| Steven_Crist: | I see a horse who got ridiculously easy leads up until her last race.... |
| Steven_Crist: | Then she sat just a little bit off a quick pace and now we're all saying she's incredibly versatile and a closer. I'm not entirely convinced that in a big field with more and better speed that she'll stalk and pounce as easily as she did at Belmont. |
| dconlin2: | Q: steven what do you make of obrien with g. washington in the classic |
| Steven_Crist: | To me they're just taking free shotsd at increasing these horses' stud values. |
| Steven_Crist: | If a GW or david Junior can run 1-2-3 in the Classic, suddenly they're worth $10 million more as stallions. It's really a hit or miss kind of a pro0sition. Look how badly Dylan Thomas ran in the JCGC. |
| ray_ro: | Q: who is your pick in the Juvenile |
| Steven_Crist: | Pletcher. |
| Steven_Crist: | Seriously, I think both Scat daddy and circular Quay are pretty decent horses. Scat daddy had interesting trips in his two before the Champagne, and CQ is suddenly three times the price he would have been if he'd won the Breeders' Futurity. |
| boris: | Q: Hi, Steve. What handicapping methods do you rely most upon when handicapping Breeder's Cup races? |
| Steven_Crist: | The same ones you use for Grade 1 stakes races on a regular basis....raw ability and performance against top company. |
| prof: | Q: Has Lava man had any real competition in California? Up until his last he was in short fields. |
| Steven_Crist: | Well, you can say the same about bernardini, who beat the worst field ever assembled for a JCGC. So you go back to the clock, and on anyone's figures, Bernardini is just several lengths faster than Lava Man. Unfortunately in American Grade 1 racing today, the fields tend to be short and uncompetitive until the Breeders cup. |
| HDembski: | Q: Who's your biggest sucker bet? I say Wait a While, who has never run this long & because no domestic 3 year old filly has won the race. |
| Steven_Crist: | I would argue that we simply haven't see a domestic 3yo filly this good in many years. To crisscross the country and wallop all comers the way she has, I think she's really special. Sucker bet? Howe about Perfect drift, who would refuse to go by ME at a mile and a quarter. |
| NobodyPicks6: | Q: Who do like for the Classic Superfecta after Bernardini? |
| Steven_Crist: | Maybe Sun King at a price as an underneath key. He had no chance in the Whitney the way the race was run, he always fires, and he'll be decent value. If Lava man doesn't run well outside of california and maybe Invasor needed that race he missed, a Bernardini-led Classic super could still be decent. |
| MonmouthPark: | Q: WHat do u think about the sprint can bordanaro or henny hughes be upset? |
| Steven_Crist: | They're both beatable Pomeroy's a little interesting and I haven't entirely ruled out Kelly's Landing as a bomb. But I don;t think you have to beat BOTH favorites. Henny's going to be lots shorter than Bordonaro. |
| Tim_Husted: | Q: Does Great Hunter translate to the CD Dirt or was Poly the reason he beat Quay? |
| Steven_Crist: | I'll tell you Saturday night. Seriously, it's hard to tell because we don't know whether everyone's figures decline in Poly races yet. CQ fell off 10 Beyer points from his Hopeful, but the question is whether he hated Poly or the races just finish closer together with no one running giant figs. |
| DEEPATTACK: | Q: My favorite play(and only) is a trifecta wheel, do you feel this an ok strategy for Breeders Cup day or should I adjust? |
| Steven_Crist: | You better bring LOTS of money if you're wheeling tris in 14-horse fields. Pushing the all button is almost never a good "strategy" because you're flat-out gambling. If you think the race is that open and random, why are you even using the favorites at all? |
| aparagon4u: | Q: Quick Little Miss and Cotton Blossom both ran well against the bias in their respective races, thats my exacta in the JF, who do you like? |
| Steven_Crist: | I think that's the toughest race on the card and I'm personally thrilled it's not part of the pick six. It does seem that playing pace-contesting front-runners coming off Poly back to dirt is a reasonable approach. |
| crimson_keys: | Q: Lucas has been bragging about Pegasus Wind for several months now. Do you think the horse can be a factor? |
| Steven_Crist: | I had to try him at 20-1 in the Champagne but the truth is, he got a pretty soft pace (compare the fractions to the Frizette) and wasn't able to hold them off in the stretch. Why exactly should he finish in front of scat daddy this time? |
| u: | Q: With enough pace in the Distaff I like Lemons Forever to repeat at CD. Thoughts on her chances? |
| Steven_Crist: | Even if the race collapses completely, how's her career-best Beyer of 92 going to get the mopney in this field? Pine Island's a closer and she's several lengths better. |
| the_faug: | Q: what about gorella? is the mile too short? |
| Steven_Crist: | No, she's gotten up at a mile. She's a potential victim of traffic, but I think there will be enough pace. |
| derbyboy: | Q: What do you think about C P West in the Juvenile? Underneath only? |
| Steven_Crist: | I like him because he has so much upside making just his third career start. and he seems to be flying below everyone's radar, to borrow a phrase from dan Illman. |
| trace: | Q: how about david junior can he go on dirt? |
| Steven_Crist: | It's a guess -- for them and for us. At least he's by Pleasant Tap, whereas George Washington is by danehill, who's a pretty hopeless dirt sire. |
| ratso: | Q: isn't it a shame that we wont be seeing Discreet Cat run at all this Saturday. Who ends the day with higher win total, Pletcher or the Sheiks? |
| Steven_Crist: | test |
| Steven_Crist: | Yes it's a shame.... |
| Steven_Crist: | Bernardini and DC are obviously the two best dirt horses in the world. DC might be iffy at a mile and a quarter just now though. |
| David_NJ: | Q: How much does Post Position figure into the FM Turf with the short run to the first turn? |
| Steven_Crist: | I can't imagine it's going to be a big deal since both OB and WAW are pretty tractable fillies who can settle in early. It's not like they're all going to be going 22 into the first turn. |
| Winooski__VT: | Q: Is Flower Alley all finished, or does he have one more left in the tank? |
| Steven_Crist: | He's awfully hard to like off two no-excuse dreadful performances and people who watch the workouts hated the way he worked this week. It seems like no one quite knows what's gone wrong with him this year. |
| derbyfritz: | Q: steve ..do you expect to see next years ky derby winner run sat ?? |
| Steven_Crist: | If I HAD to like a horse right now for the Derby it would be Nobiz Like Showbiz. But I also think the Juvenile Jinx is a load of nonsense. |
| aparagon4u: | Q: What are your thoughts on the new "Win and you're in" series? How can they use the Del Mar Mile and not the Kelso? |
| Steven_Crist: | I havn't fully digested their plan yet but will be writing about it for the Sunday paper. But clearly it has some flaws and inconsistencies -- two races for juveniles, none for juvenile fillies, etc. The truth is, though, no recent Grade 1 winner ever gets exclused from a BC race so I think the whole win-and-you're-in thing is kind of a made-for-tv gimmick rather than a real change to how these fields come together. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Breeders' Cup chat. Join us again on Wednesday, November 1, from 7:00-8:00 ET, for a chat with Andrew Beyer. |
| Steven_Crist: | Thanks for your patience everyone and good luck Saturday! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Breeders' Cup past performances will be available on Wednesday! |
