| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for joining us for tonight's Breeders' Cup chat with Andrew Beyer ... |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Hello, everybody; sorry for the delay but we're ready to go. |
| 3dee: | Q: Andy - Would Aragon's descending Beyers and below par mile speed concern you? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Yes, they would. And when you look back on the race where he got the giant figure, he beat a bunch of horses who have not subsequently distinguished themselves. I usually get in trouble when I disregard my own figures, but I'm going against ARagorn Saturday. |
| boboo: | Q: Andy.. who do think is the most vulnerable favorite? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Fleet Indian is near the top of the vulnerability list. From the standpoint of figures, she's no better than a half a dozen other entrants in the Distaff. From the standpoint of trips, she has had one easy setup after another. Of course she's won 8 in a row and she can win again, but at 8-5 I'd definitely play against her. |
| boboo: | Q: Bernardini looks almost too good.. does he have any vulnerabilities? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Yes-- the fact that he's looked so good by winning easily. When horses dominate races where they don't have much competition, they usually look better than they are, and often disappoint when they're subjected to a real test. But I can't make a strong case for any of Bernardini's rivals (except, maybe, Invasor.) |
| Hillman: | Q: In a weak juvenile filly field is Dreaming of Anna the real deal and the one to beat ?? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | We've all got certain rules of handicapping that we're dogmatic about, and one of mine is the follow: Never assume that a horse who runs well on the turf will duplicate his top form on the dirt, and vice versa. Yes, Anna ran well on the grass, but her lone dirt win doesn't prove that she's good enough to win at this level. Until proved otherwise, she's a turf specialist. And I'll go against her. |
| boboo: | Q: What's your take on polytrack form? The Spinster was too slow to be believed. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | My view of Polytrack is that we cannot give horses any special credit for good races on the surface, and we can't hold bad races against horses who flopped on it. After watching the Keeneland meet, the main conclusion about Polytrack is that it is absolutely distinct from dirt, and the form on it is more closely related to turf form. |
| phillyparkwally: | Q: I went with you on Cajun Beat and made a lot of money who are we going to make money with in the sprint! |
| Stevie_the_Wiz: | Q: Pine Islands figures keep improving, will that lead to a win Saturday? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Her figures are about on a par with everybody else's; I have a lot of respect for Shug McGaughey, particularly in the Breeders' Cup, so I guess she is eligible to make a leap forward. But she's done all of her running against lesser 3-year-old fillies, and has never run a race against horses of this quality. She's listed at second choice in the morning line, I believe, and that's too short a price. |
| DEEPATTACK: | Q: Outside positions seem to be very tough to handle in the mile due to the first turn, Gorella and Librettist are 12 and 13, do you feel this all but rules them out as winners and best case may hit the board? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I think Gorella is a terrific filly, and she's going to be dropping to the rear of the field early, so I won't be deterred by her post position. I don't know what to make of Librettist, frankly. |
| prof_2: | Q: Andy..how much do you like, or not, Lava Man? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I could not possibly bet him, and if I can find a good horse-for-horse matchup somewhere, I'd be delighted to bet against him. His races on the dirt this year have been consistently slow. He's never run a race that suggests he can compete with the big guns. Moreover, his dismal prior record in shipping out of California has been well documented. How can he win? |
| MonmouthPark: | Q: What is your take in the juvenile.. Will CQ be to far back to take it |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I think the relevant question is: Is he good enough to take it? My answer is no. I loathe him. His one good figure, in the Hopeful Stakes, came in a race where he got the absolutely perfect setup as the lone closer in a five-horse field with four other speed horses. I don't put any stockin the Polytrack race, but he was beaten at Keeneland even though Great Hunter ran into significant trouble. I think he's a closing sprinter--and not a particularly great one at that. |
| Winooski__VT: | Q: How do you see the Turf unflding? Will Hurricane get beat? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | The Turf is to me the most confusing race on the card, one that offers little betting potential. Hurricane Run is obviously the best horse off his top form, but that form appears to be declining. Moreover, the way they're handling the horse suggests that the Breeders' CUp is almost an afterthought. But if you go against him, whom do you go for? English Channel and Cacique, the logical alternatives, are nothihg special in my opinion; they've haven't shown they can beat the top Euros. |
| cat_thief: | Q: Andy...what's your opinion on Invasor and his layoff time? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | It's the one big knock against him. You don't want a horse coming into the big race of his life with his schedule significantly disrupted. I think he's the only horse in the field capable of beating Bernardini, and I still think he's likely to run second, but you've got to downgrade his chances off pulling an upset because of that layoff. |
| pfacer: | Q: I agree to your views on both Fleet Indian & Pine Island. do you think Pool Land can run back to her earlier numbers? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Her big figure in the spring was a loose-on-the-lead effort from post 1 at Keeneland, and we know how fluky those circumstances are. Her most recent figure, the 99 she earned against a nothing field in the Ruffian, seems more reflective of her ability. |
| TonyTonto: | Q: how do you feel Wait A While's form stacks up with OB? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I don't think anybody can really answer that question. Ouija Board has proved race after race that she can run with the best males in the world. She's tremendous. Wait A While has been dominating much lesser competition, but she looks as if she's got limitless potential. There is no real basis for making a comparison of the two. Fortunately, you don't have to. You used both of them in Pick 4s, Pick 6 etc. and lock up the race. I think it would be foolish for anybody to try to take a stand on one of them. |
| jkk: | Q: The Juvenile Filly looks like the setting for an upset. Does the track surface really matter to Bel Air Beauty? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | We can't know, since she's never raced on dirt, but I would not bet a horse on the basis of Polytrack form. And even her Polytrack race wasn't much; she got a very easy trip, stalking the pace, and earned a mediocre figure of 81. |
| tmclean: | Q: Andy... It's Pomeroy in the Sprint. What do you think? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I think he'll be part of the hot pace, and that won't be a good thing. |
| tmclean: | Q: Andy... Happy Ticket is a hard knocking mare - Can she take the distaff? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I have a lit of respect for her, but she has lost 3 times this year to other fillies and mares in the Distaff field. She had a pretty soft trip when she was beaten at Del Mar by Healthy Addiction. |
| boboo: | Q: What type of bet do you think gives the most bang for the buck for those with a moderate bankroll? |
| Winooski__VT: | Q: I like CP West and Roxy in the Juvi...should I keep looking? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Yes. |
| Big_2na: | Q: Andy, What about Badge of Silver's chances? Frankel has terrible BC record and 10 months since last race seems worrisome. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | There are almost certainly too many negatives connected to the horse, but when you look at the pace of the Mile, he just might get a clear lead. That's how Frankel won with Intercontinental last year. Stranger things have happened. |
| TonyTonto: | Q: could u see Spun Sugar rebouding in the distaff? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Absolutely. I would draw a line through that Polytrack race. The form in the Spinster was crazy. Off her dirt form, with those back figures of 102 and 103, Spun Sugar looks as good as anybody--including her stablemate, Fleet Indian. |
| machead: | Q: give us your opinion of Sutra |
| ANDY_BEYER: | As a figure guy, if I had to name one horse with the least chance of winning Saturday, it would be she. Her win at Belmont (with the aid of a perfect pace set-up) was the lowest figure we can ever remember in a grade I stakes. |
| RW: | Q: do you think Great Hunters big performance at Kee was due to more distance and 2 turns I like him alot |
| ANDY_BEYER: | You could say that if you're trying to build a case for him, but I'd have to think that Polytrack was much more of a factor than anything else. When you look at Great Hunter prior races in sprints, he wasn't finishing in a fashion that suggested he was going to improve going a longer distance. So I conclude that he was a polytrack phenomenon. |
| jcap: | Q: Andy, Stormello's trainer says he is coming into the BC at his best form, can he beat the Principle? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | He certain ran a figure good enough to win the Juvenile. But he did it under very advantageous circumstances. The SA track was very speed favoring, and the three speeds in that field ran 1-2-3 around the track. Nobody gained from the back. Of the 3 speeds, Stormello had the best of trips, stalking the duel in which Principle Secret was involved. I liked Principle Secret's prior efforts in California, too. I think he's the better colt. |
| gary5789: | Q: Do you think balletto has a shot from post 14? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Yes, she's going to be dropping back and making one late run, so I don't think the post would hurt her as it would a speed horse or a stalker. Balletto's been displaying a lot of seconditis, but she runs a good race every time and I certainly wouldn't leave her off my Pick 4/6. She'll be part of my spread in an attempt to beat Fleet Indian. |
| irish: | Q: what do you think about david junior |
| ANDY_BEYER: | He's a good horse on grass, of course, but I'm not going to assume that he can handle the dirt, even with Pleasant Tap as his sire. The Europeans are not necessarily entering turf horses on dirt because they are convinced they can handle dirt. They are doing it as a gamble; if a horse can establish dirt form, he's worth much, much more at stud. That's obviously the reason they're running George Washington in this ridiculous spot. |
| yayankee: | Q: how much weight do you give to horses who have already raced and won at CD? |
| ANDY_BEYER: | I'm not a big believer in horses for couses, though in the past there have been indications that the Churchill turf couse does have a horses-for-courses aspect to it. |
| ANDY_BEYER: | Thanks everybody for joining us. Have a great Breeders' Cup. My complete analysis of the day will be in Saturday's DRF, and I'll be conducting a seminar on Saturday at the Mohegan Sun Casino. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming to tonight's Breeders' Cup chat. Please join us on Thursday, November 2, from 7:00-8:00 ET, for a chat with Dan Illman. |
