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Klein's Breeders' Cup analysis

With so much talk of all the horses who will not be at this year's Breeders' Cup (Mineshaft, Empire Maker, Candy Ride, Azeri, and too many 2-year-olds to mention), it's easy to overlook the quality of the horses who will be running on Saturday. This year's eight-race card still has everything from short-priced favorites (Halfbridled, Sightseek, Cuvee), to wide-open races (Sprint, Mile, Filly & Mare Turf), to two defending champions (High Chaparral and Volponi), and should not be short on excitement from start to finish.

Temperatures at Santa Anita have been as high as 100 degrees on Breeders' Cup week, but they should dip to more reasonable levels in the low 80s by race day. A fantastic international group of horses has been assembled for the day's three turf races. Hopefully the hot weather will not affect the outcome of those races.

Good luck on Breeders' Cup Day! Here are my selections.

BREEDERS' CUP SELECTIONS:

DISTAFF
Santa Anita - Race 2
Fillies & mares, 1 1/8 miles, purse: $2,000,000
1) Got Koko
2) Sightseek
3) Elloluv

If home track advantage means anything on Saturday, it might mean a lot in the Distaff for Got Koko. Got Koko has won five of her seven starts at Santa Anita including the Lady's Secret BCH over Azeri in her final prep for the Distaff. Got Koko beat Sightseek at this track and distance back in February in the La Canada, and certainly may be able to repeat that feat Saturday back at her favorite track. Sightseek will deservedly be the huge favorite in the Distaff based on her current streak of four straight Grade 1 wins (won by a combined 25 lengths). However, she's lost three times in 2003, and all three races were at Santa Anita, which appears to be her least favorite track. Try an exacta box with Got Koko and Sightseek, and include both horses in your multi-race wagers. If you're playing trifectas, throw in Elloluv based on her huge effort for second (DQ'd to fourth) behind Got Koko last time out in the Lady's Secret.

JUVENILE FILLIES
Santa Anita - Race 3
2-year-old fillies, 1 1/8 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) Halfbridled
2) Class Above
3) Tarlow

Undefeated Halfbridled looks like the clear standout in the Juvenile Fillies based on her dominating wins in the Del Mar Debutante-G1 and the Oak Leaf-G2 stakes. Halfbridled is versatile enough to win from on or off the pace, should have no distance limitations, and has yet to show any signs of vulnerability in any of her three races. She looks like something special, and should be good enough to give jockey Julie Krone her first Breeders' Cup victory. In the race for second, the top contender appears to be Bob Baffert trainee Class Above, who won her maiden at Del Mar and exits a 16-length score in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies-$100k at Turfway Park at a mile around two turns. Another interesting challenger looks like Tarlow who ran second to Halfbridled in the Oak Leaf in her first stakes race and first route. She may not turn the tables on Halfbridled, but still may be good enough for second.

MILE
Santa Anita - Race 4
1 mile Turf, purse: $1,500,000
1) Special Ring
2) Peace Rules
3) Six Perfections

The Mile is a wide-open race, and one horse who may offer a lot of value is Special Ring, a local turf mile specialist who exits a hard-luck fourth-place finish in the Oak Tree Mile when he was taken too far back off he pace. In his second race back from a brief layoff in the Breeders' Cup, Special Ring should turn in a much improved effort from back in his usual spot on or near the lead. His best effort should be enough to win the Mile. If Special Ring doesn't get he job done, then Peace Rules very well may be able to score the upset for trainer Bobby Frankel. Peace Rules has spent most of the year racing against the best 3-year-olds in the country on dirt, but also owns three victories on the grass and really looks like he'll be better at a mile than at the longer distances he's raced at since the spring. Peace Rules won the Grade 3 Generous Stakes at a mile on turf last fall over Lismore Knight, and that horse went on to become one of the best 3-year-old grass horses in the U.S. this year. It would be a major mistake to overlook Peace Rules in this race. If one of the European invaders is able to beat the heat and take the Mile, it is likely to be Six Perfections, who has not been worse than second in five races so far this year. Six Perfections won France's top Mile prep, the Prix Jacques le Marois, in his last start, and has already posted two wins on firmer turf earlier in his career.

SPRINT
Santa Anita - Race 5
6 furlongs, purse: $1,000,000
1) Shake You Down
2) Valid Video
3) Aldebaran

With the exception of just one bad race in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt on a sloppy track at Saratoga, Shake You Down has been the best six-furlong horse in the country since joining the barn of trainer Scott Lake back in March. Shake you Down rebounded from his Vanderbilt defeat last time out with an allowance win at Belmont where he earned a Beyer speed figure of 115. That figure was his fifth Beyer in excess of 112 this year. Three-year-old Valid Video emerged as one of the top sprinters in the country this summer with back-to-back wins in the Carry Back-G3 at Calder (110 Beyer) and the Kings Bishop-G1 at Saratoga (107 Beyer). This will be his first race against older horses, but certainly cannot be counted out given his recent form. The likely favorite in the Sprint will be Aldebaran thanks to his four-length Forego Handicap win where he earned a 122 Beyer. However, not only has Aldebaran never won at six furlongs, he's never even raced at six furlongs once in his 24-race career. He looks like a very shaky favorite.

FILLY & MARE TURF
Santa Anita - Race 6
1 1/4 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) Islington
2) Musical Chimes

The Filly & Mare Turf may be the most difficult and wide-open race on the card, and it's easy to make a case for almost every horse in the field. The most high-profile Euro invader in the race is likely favorite Islington, who finished third last year at Arlington and probably would have won if not for a nightmarish trip. Islington has returned to her best form with a win in the Yorkshire Oaks-G1, and a third behind High Chaparral and Falbrav in the Irish Champion Stakes-G1, and will be very tough to beat with a decent trip. Musical Chimes finished third in the French Oaks-G1 and has already gotten acclimated to Southern California since coming over last month and finishing second in the Yellow Ribbon for trainer Andre Fabre.

JUVENILE
Santa Anita - Race 7
2-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles, purse: $1,500,000
1) Cuvee
2) Race for Glory
3) Tiger Hunt

With so many horses opting to pass this race, Cuvee looks like one of the strongest favorites on the card. Cuvee has been awesome in back-to-back wins in the Saratoga Special-G2 and Belmont Futurity-G1, and he may be able to outrun any possible distance limitations against this watered-down field. It's difficult to count out D. Wayne Lukas with 2-year-olds in the Breeders' Cup, even with a Cal.-bred like Race For Glory, who sprang to life last time out with a seven-length win and a 98 Beyer in a state bred stakes on this track. Tiger Hunt is one of the few horses in the Juvenile who owns a two-turn win, and he therefore must be taken seriously here for trainer Elliott Walden. Tiger Hunt finished second in the Lane's End Futurity at Keeneland in his last race, but the horse that beat him, Eurosilver, would have been one of the favorites in this race if he'd shown up.

TURF
Santa Anita - Race 8
1 1/2 miles Turf, purse: $2,000,000
1) High Chaparral
2) Storming Home
3) Sulamani

Defending Turf champion High Chaparral didn't return to the races until August of this year, but since his return he's won two of his three starts and appears to be back in tip-top form for Aiden O'Brien. High Chaparral's one loss was a third-place finish behind Dalakhani on soggy ground in the Arc de Triomphe, and he should benefit from his return to firm turf in this race. Storming Home has been by far the best turf horse in America this year and will be the most likely winner of this race if the European horses can't take the heat. Storming Home is known best for his DQ in the Arlington Million-G1 which cost him a win and almost killed his jockey Gary Stevens. However, except for that incident yards away from the finish at Arlington, Storming Home has been unbeatable this year with four wins in four races (minus the DQ) including the 1 1/2-mile Murray Memorial at Hollywood and the 1 1/4-mile Clement Hirsch-G1 here at Santa Anita in his final Breeders' Cup prep. He may be better at 1 1/4 miles than at 1 1/2 miles, but if he chooses to behave on Saturday, watch out. Sulamani competed against the best horses in Europe before coming to the U.S. for wins in the Arlington Million (the beneficiary of Storming Home's foul) and the Turf Classic-G1. However, the field Sulamani beat at Belmont wasn't the best, and he may have finished as far back as fourth in the Million if Storming Home hadn't wiped out the field at the finish.

CLASSIC
Santa Anita - Race 9
1 1/4 miles, purse: $4,000,000
1) Volponi
2) Medaglia d'Oro
3) Hold That Tiger

After having picked Volponi first in this column last year and then watching him win at 43-1 odds, you don't think I'm going to go against him this year, do you? The 5-year-old Volponi is still seeking his first win since last year's Breeders' Cup Classic upset after a frustrating season of five second- and two third-place finishes against all sorts of competition ranging from the very best to the not-so-good. However, just like last year, he will no doubt be at his best on Breeders' Cup Day and seems to be sitting on another monster effort for 78-year-old Hall of Fame trainer Phil Johnson. Volponi is one of the few horses in the Classic who is not a major question mark at 1 1/4 miles, and unlike other major contenders in the Classic may be going off at odds in the range of 20 to 30-1. Volponi's last two races, including a Belmont turf race and the Meadowlands Cup in which he was wiped out at the start, can both be completely tossed-out (he lost those same two races last year). Otherwise, his other races this year all look good. Despite the knocks on him, Volponi has always been a top-class competitor on dirt when wearing blinkers (blinkers were off in the Meadowlands Cup but will be back on for the Classic), and he figures to get another good stalking trip from just off the pace. The horse Volponi will have to beat in the Classic is once again Medaglia d'Oro, who was second to Volponi in this race last year before turning the tables this year with a win in the Whitney at Saratoga. Medaglia d'Oro seems to love Santa Anita (2-for-2) and has been amongst the top handicap horses in the country all year, but he may not be at his best at 1 1/4 miles. Also, despite last year's Classic result, trainer Bobby Frankel opted once again not to give Medaglia d'Oro a fall prep race just like he did last year when a better conditioned Volponi was able to beat him by 6 1/2-lengths. The most interesting of all the 3-year-olds in the Classic is Hold That Tiger, who finished a fast-closing third despite a horrible break in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Hold That Tiger returned to the U.S. last month for a prep race in the Woodward, where he broke better and finished second to the best horse in the country, Mineshaft. With another good start on Saturday, the sky could be the limit for Hold That Tiger.