DRF.com Breeders' Cup Chat 10/21/2003 7:00 pm - 8:00 pm
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drumbo:
7:01 pm | Do you think throwing out track bias and using raw finish times for horse comparisons in any of the BC races is a good way to back up your handicapping?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:01 pm | No, a thousand times no. raw times mean zippo and on another level, track bias has nothing to do really with making good speed figures
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Bubbles:
7:02 pm | Forest Music won her six-furlong debut in 1:08 1/5. Can she defeat Halfbridled and Ashado in the Juvenile Fillies?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:02 pm | This is a crazy BC horse
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:02 pm | She certainly ran very fast
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:02 pm | but at the same time, it seems a perfect way to ruin a young filly
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JohnF:
7:03 pm | Steve - I love your writings...one question, you had previously written on Medaglia D`Oro and Congaree`s inabilities to get 1 1/4 miles...how will each fare on Saturday, and whom do you like?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:03 pm | Never wrote that they couldn't get 10 furlongs, fact is I thought Congaree could win at that distance and Medaglia already has
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:03 pm | More
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:04 pm | I think that is not their optimal distance, however. But SA helps carry horses further than most tracks
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:04 pm | forgive my spelling., typing fast. transcript on the web will be cleaned up
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The goer:
7:04 pm | Santos was bemoaning the fact he accepted the mount on Volponi, Julie Krone`s agent gave up the mount on Peace Rules, this to ride Funny Cide. Everything I read says the horse has little chance w/the layoff etc. Thoughts?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:05 pm | Funny Cide is a terrific horse in the wrong race at the wrong time, even his trainer has hinted that it's the owners making the call this time
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:05 pm | mpre
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:05 pm | I think he'll run better than most expect, but I'd be shocked if he won off his last four months
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El Angelo:
7:05 pm | What's your take on Refuse to Bend? No horse has won the Mile without a good prep race, and his was awful, but his mile form is solid, plus he's going to be a nice price.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:06 pm | Refuse To Bend is an interesting longshot in the Mile. His two wins this year were excellent. more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:06 pm | He's an in and out type a yes and no type. Last time was no, this time he just might blow up the tote board, or figure in the tris
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Favorite Trick Ruled:
7:06 pm | With Halfbridled`s sluggish workout, is she vulnerable now? Society Selection is a solid closer, and I think she'll be coming quickly down the lane. Your thoughts?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:07 pm | Halfbrideld has done everything you might want to see of a BC Juv filly winner and she's on her home track. The real dangers is Class Above and possibly Zosima
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classhandicapper:
7:07 pm | What do you make of the 3yos - Dynever and TMW relative to the older horses?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:08 pm | Their both similar in many ways, running style overall body type and ability, natural ability. more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:08 pm | Dynever does not have Ten Most Wanted's experience and natural progression towards a tip top effort. He looks like an exotics possibility to me if the pace is red hot
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classhandicapper:
7:08 pm | Was the West Virginia Derby as fast as it looks on Beyer figures? Other figure makers dispute it
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:09 pm | I have no real opinion and don't think it really matters. what does matter is that Dynever was very close to Soto in the WVA race and Ten Most Wanted beat Soto by a reasonably small, but convincing margin.
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Tommy:
7:10 pm | I like Valid Video in the Sprint. Do you think he has a shot?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:10 pm | Very much so.
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giants causeway:
7:10 pm | What do you think is the track bias of Santa Anita currently (if any)? It seems to me that it is getting increasingly more suited to front runners
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:11 pm | It certainly has been favoring horses that have the lead turning for home and horses that save ground nearer the lead
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NoChalk4Me:
7:11 pm | Should Sightseek`s 3 losses this winter at Santa Anita, 2 of which were around 2 turns, be viewed as a sign of vulnerability, OR, has she matured to the point where those races can be tossed?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:11 pm | Looks to me that she has developed into a serious filly with very few flaws.
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KIRISCLOWN:
7:11 pm | Steve, what are your thoughts on HOLD THAT TIGER? Does he have a legit shot?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:12 pm | A good exotics possiblit5y I think he showed decent overall speed in his comeback race to Mineshaft and he's set up for some improvement
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gnot:
7:12 pm | Great Notion is in my opinion a pretty good colt. If you throw out the Races at Keeneland (some horses don't care for Keeneland) he's never been worst than 2nd in his career. Do you think he has a shot in the Breeders Cup Sprint?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:13 pm | He's a hard horse to figure or to toss. his Saratoga race was huge (to Valid Video). At a big price I'll use in some exotics.
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turnover:
7:13 pm | Hello Mr. Davidowitz - I have a couple of your books and they have proven very valuable. My question is: to what extent do you believe the firmer-than-average condition of the turf course at Santa Anita will effect the European runners Saturday?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:13 pm | again I apologize for my typing. working fast and the copy will be cleaned up on the web site later
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:14 pm | Some like Oasis Dream and Falbrav should love it. Others are hard to know for sure. that's part of the dilemma of figuring the euros. and post position in the mile certainly will be a major factor
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zebra:
7:15 pm | Does it bother you that Perfect Drift's connection never pointed the horse for the BC Classic and the horse has 3 races in 6 weeks
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:15 pm | Yes. More
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:15 pm | He's a terrific horse for sure and he's one of the prime contenders, based on everything he's done. but this is not an easy race.
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Bubbles:
7:15 pm | Can Dessert pull off a minor upset by winning the B.C.W.T.C. Filly and Mare Turf?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:16 pm | It would be a major upset in my opinion. She'll certainly be part of the pace, but there are several very solid contenders with good late punch in the filed
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Ambush:
7:16 pm | What is your take on Pleasantly Perfect in the Classic? I thought he ran wonderful back off the layoff and he can win over the track.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:17 pm | He's a very good horse playing catch up ball and stepping up in company. I was impressed also by his effort, but the effort might have to be overcome too.
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byanoze:
7:17 pm | what about Falbrav and High Chaparral? They just had big races and have now traveled...are they over the top?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:17 pm | Flabrav was rested a bit since late September and didn't run in the Arc. He should be ready. High Chaparral more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:18 pm | High Chaparral won this last year but has had a hard campaign and I really want to see him on the TVG Works show before I make final judgment
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top cat:
7:18 pm | Design for Luck in the Mile with the Euros shut out for the day. What do you think?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:19 pm | Don't think the Euros will be shut out if their milers draw well and the turf and Turf for Fillies ands mares has too much Euro depth for me to feel as confident as you
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classhandicapper:
7:19 pm | Was Great Notions King's Bishop good enough to win considering the pace he cut?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:19 pm | No. more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:20 pm | There will be an absolutely wicked pace in this Sprint. He's a contender, but he'll have to improve a couple of lengths, which is possible, but there are many in the same boat
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canterburyMPLS:
7:20 pm | Heat haze looked amazing until the flower bowl, could that be a sign she is tailing off?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:20 pm | Frankel has a way of recovering horses off one bad race. I would not count her out at all.
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XParrot:
7:20 pm | What Classic entrants stands the best chance of throwing in a bad race?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:21 pm | Pleasantly Perfect is a bounce candidate, as I said and more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:22 pm | It's hard to make that guess without considering the way the pace may knock one or two good horses out of it
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george:
7:22 pm | Does Deeliteful Irving look like a live longshot
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:22 pm | When he graduated in 2001 I thought he would develop into a Graded stakes horse and he has. more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:23 pm | His finish in the Man o War was very good kind of hidden, but this is a world class group and if he finishes on the board it will be great
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turnover:
7:23 pm | Assuming Aldebaran will be the favorite in the sprint, Shake You Down will likely be at a better price than he has been in recent races. Do you think he'll make a go of it?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:23 pm | Absolute contender.
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Krash:
7:24 pm | Krash :I think Volponi could surprise again in the classic! your opinion please
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:24 pm | Last year I wrote here that he really has no chance to win. more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:24 pm | This year he has very little chance to win LOL more
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:25 pm | He's basically the same horse with the hard trying, consistent near miss form that he had last year an exotics possibility only, at least that's the way I'll be betting.
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lakers:
7:25 pm | the Beyers on cuvee look off the final 1/4 of mile in over 25.3, what is your opinion?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:26 pm | I don't think he wants any part of a real route race, but this is 1-1/16 miles on a glib SA track. if they let him get loose, he'll be formidable. I probably will take a couple shots against him though.
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Scaramouche:
7:26 pm | Any comments on Bright Sky's opting for the Turf rather than the Filly & Mare?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:27 pm | I think the connections believe that she prefers 1-1/2 miles and she has run very well against males. (more)
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:27 pm | The other issue is $2 million vs. $1 million and the prestige it would bring them. The Filly and Mare Turf is no picnic by the way
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mingun:
7:27 pm | What do u think of six perfections chances against colts??? remember Miesque!!!!!
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:28 pm | She's another major league contender and another Euro who will need a favorable post draw. fillies beat colts all the time in Europe.
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_ C race:
7:28 pm | What are evening attire's chances in the classic?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:29 pm | I love him as an exotics contender. Even on biased tracks he always closes ground and there will be a legit to hot pace here. he loves 1-1/4 miles.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
7:29 pm | Please do not submit your questions multiple times. All questions are being read, if your question is selected you will see it in the chat window on a delayed basis. Thanks.
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guest1:
7:29 pm | How do you envision the pace scenario for the Classic?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:30 pm | As just stated, legit, to potentially hot. But at the same time, the pones likely to be involved in the pace are not cheap speedballs. they can go at least a mile maybe further.
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giants causeway:
7:30 pm | What do you think of Oasis Dream's mile chance? I think if he draws 1 to 6 he'll take the world of beating
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:31 pm | He will love the turf at SA . . .post position will be important, but at the same time, he's stretching out and the race is very deep with milers, true milers
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exodus3977:
7:31 pm | Who are your biggest play-against this Saturday? Obviously there aren't any odds to go by yet, but early thoughts?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:32 pm | They scratched the one I was feeling strongest about--AZERI, the post draw will help me make up my mind about the Juvenile Cuvee and I think Halfbridled is good, but she i9s no cinch
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inkboy95:
7:32 pm | what's your take on tarlow in the juvenile fillies
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:32 pm | A possible exotics factor in the Juv Fillies.
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BENNY:
7:33 pm | CAN BALTO STAR STEAL THE TURF
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:33 pm | No. (more)
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:33 pm | He will set the pace and hang around for sure and he might hold a top four finishing position, but The Tin Man will keep him honest
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zeke:
7:34 pm | The Tin Man? Still improving? Learning to rate perhaps?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:34 pm | He's a nice horse and like Balto Star will have a lot to say about the pace, but the top horses in here are too strong
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medagpays:
7:34 pm | what should the over/under be on breeders races won by frankel this year?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:34 pm | 2
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bucksboy:
7:34 pm | I think Congaree is the overlooked horse in this year's Classic. Do you like him at all?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:35 pm | Will be a key factor, but I prefer Medaglia d'Oro in a clash of similar styles as the key horse for the mid pack closers to deal with.
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jasper the samoyed:
7:35 pm | Tates Creek chances in the F/M turf? I think her late kick is good enough, is it?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:36 pm | Obviously, she has a chance, but I won't favor her over her stablemate Heat Haze and there are six others in the field with nearly equal ability
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Bubbles:
7:36 pm | Any opinions on Bluesthestandard in the Sprint? He has a shot IMO, but I think 6F is a little short.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:37 pm | He's one of many training superbly who has familiarity with the track and distance. What a scramble this Sprint looks to be
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Lonhro:
7:37 pm | Do you think Yankee Gentlemen can win the BC Sprint?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:38 pm | Don't mean to give same answer to different horses, but anyone looking at the past performances has to know there are very few throwouts in the Sprint
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:38 pm | again I apologize for my typing, working fast and copy will be cleaned up on the site later
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bolt:
7:38 pm | do you still use your Beyer scale pace charts and if so are there any pace standouts to report?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:39 pm | I do, but in races involving international fields and shippers from all over, it is not really practical to rely on that aspect of the handicapping equation.
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bigdog:
7:39 pm | Given a fast pace in the Turf, does Johar have a shot?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:39 pm | I think he is a bomb with a good chance to outrun his odds. He's a natural long distance type who showed more speed than ever last time (more)
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:40 pm | He will be taken back a bit off the pace, is improving and is as I say a bomb with hidden form
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classhandicapper:
7:40 pm | Do you think Get Koko is ready for an all time top?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:41 pm | She is fit, strong and a serious threat, but the scratching of Azeri may hurt her a little bit given that Azeri was sure to be near the pace and Sightseek now has a definite advantage. the horse I'm looking at for exact value is Elloluv
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C:
7:41 pm | how about Victory USA in the fillies
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:42 pm | Fast, needs an inside draw and a b rather away from Class Above to have a true winning chance.
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bucksboy:
7:42 pm | Can we throw out Siphonizer`s last with the breathing thing? How about Consecrate`s?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:42 pm | Don't like either in the Juv right now. loved Siphonizer for Del Mar Futurity, prefer his stablemate Minister Eric from that barn in this race, but there are others to deal with too.
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medagpays:
7:43 pm | can captain squire improve enough from his last race to win the sprint?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:43 pm | Once more, Sprint is wide open and he's one of the logical threats.
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zchalkman:
7:43 pm | Can Chapel Royal win at a 1 1/16 ? I love his last 2 races and think he is ready . What do you think ?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:44 pm | He's a legit con tender at a distance that should not be beyond his powers. He would be helped a great deal if able to stalk Cuvee from a comfortable inner position
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Big Jag:
7:44 pm | Do you think Aldebaran will go off at a decent price in the sprint since many are convinced he needs 7 furlongs to do his best work?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:45 pm | A better price perhaps decent. maybe 3-1, or 5-2. He's up against the track profile and the 6 furlong issue is real, but he was in front at 6 furls in two of his 7 furlong wins and he has only been defeated by top, top horses this year.
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gnot:
7:45 pm | What do you think about Perfect Soul in the Mile...Seems to be rounding into form right now, and its his 3rd race at the distance...Does he have a shot???
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:46 pm | The Mile is like the Sprint, very deep with threats, take your best guess, but wait for the post draw to determine the probable pace scenario
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Lacks74:
7:46 pm | I'm very disappointed Ghostzapper wont be showing up. How much credence do you lend to Frankel's theory about dirt clumps, et al at Santa Anita, opposed to the NY circuit tracks?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:47 pm | I'm wondering if Frankel should submit his theory to Scientific American. I'm sure they'd come up with an answer
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Diamond Dave:
7:47 pm | on paper renaissance lady does not seem to fit. but these are juveniles. is Lukas just taking a shot or does he have a legit chance?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:48 pm | Dismi9ssing Lukas in BNC races has proven costly, but I would dismiss her.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:48 pm | BVC races.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:48 pm | BC races
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nykid:
7:48 pm | Musical Chimes best closer of all in f and m turf?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:48 pm | One of the better closers, but she also closed in her American debut after the race was over. a threat among others.
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bettwice:
7:48 pm | Mandella is going in with a hot hand. Which one do you feel has the best shot?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:49 pm | Halfbridled is an obvious contender probable odds on in fact, although as I said, she's no cinch. Otherwise, Johar as I mentioned may be an overlooked contender in the Turf
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Fofo:
7:49 pm | From what I read Dolasse tried to rate Elloluv in her last. I'd think she'd have a pretty legit shot to get loose here, especially with the defection of Azeri?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:50 pm | I think you will see her close to the pace but not in front. Her race in the Lady's Secret was slightly under the radar.
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The goer:
7:50 pm | Had the farm on Storming Home at ARL the DQ really hurt. Redemption?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:51 pm | You missed your date for redemption, he won the Clement Hirsch at SA Sept. 28. A legit contender here obviously, best of luck and too bad at Arlington. How about that Gary Stevens coming back though!
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:52 pm | copy will be cleaned up on the web site later
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Bob:
7:52 pm | Comparing past Turf winners to this year, I see Sulamani and High Chaparral coming up as standouts, what do you think of Sulamani?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:53 pm | They do not have this raced to themselves. Falbrav is very very dangerous and perhaps a touch better on firm ground. racing luck does play a role in these races too,. so get a fair price
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Dog:
7:53 pm | Do you think Take Charge Lady has a chance to steal the race in the distaff?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:53 pm | No. she'll be on or near the lead, but nobody is stealing anything in any of these races.
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markmydreams:
7:54 pm | Steve, I'm heading to McDonald's ... would you like me to bring you anything???
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:54 pm | Prefer you stop at Piazza Pizza
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timpam:
7:54 pm | What is your opinion of Peace Rules in Mile
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:55 pm | One of the most interesting BC horses from every standpoint. He certainly has improved since he won on the course (more)
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:55 pm | His gritty second in the Travers was a testament to his class. Frankel, frankel frankel. need I say more.
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Joeaveragefan:
7:55 pm | Do you think except when it's really obvious, trainers tell the truth when dealing with the media?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:56 pm | Very rarely, in fact I sometimes think that to get a trainer's license, they have to swear they will lie about what they are doing and when they are doing it. otherwise, it is refreshing to hear people like Wally Dollase speak their mind. the trainer's
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raf:
7:56 pm | From raf: Ethan man has run at 3 different track and won on each of them his only defeat came 11/16 and he came 2nd to Najran last out. Do you like his chances?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:57 pm | I like him as a racehorse and as I said before the Sprint is wide open, very wide.
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davidw:
7:58 pm | Why is Aiden O'Brien even bringing Status of Liberty? It doesn't seem to make sense? Nice horse, but doesn't seem in the same class as the rest.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:58 pm | His Sussex stakes was one of the absolutely best performances of the year. but he's a longshot here because he has seemed off form and been injured since. he might not make the race and wind up in as supporting stakes.
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Kissimmee:
7:59 pm | In the sprint I like Ethan man and have debated Midas Eyes, Midas eyes has had a long absence but J. Bailey is up? Could Midas pull one out of the hat?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:59 pm | Midas Eyes is part of the Sprint pace picture, UI doubt he'll win. But he could help Aldebaran
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:00 pm | Thanks very much for coming, best of luck and good handicapping to all of you.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:00 pm | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup!
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:00 pm | We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later this evening in the DRF.com Breeders' Cup section.
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:00 pm | In case you missed the giant ad to your right, you can bet the Breeders' Cup at Youbet.com! And win $1,000 to bet with!
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DRF_WEBGRP:
8:00 pm | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all.
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