| DRF.com Breeders' Cup Chat 10/17/2003 5:00 pm - 6:36 pm |
DRF_WEBGRP:
5:03 pm | We are having a few problems getting Andy logged in. We should be getting started shortly. Thanks.
|
DRF_WEBGRP:
5:14 pm | We are still having a few problems getting Andy logged in. We should be getting started shortly. Thanks.
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:25 pm | Hello, everybody. Sorry about the technical problems.
|
Suedehead:
5:27 pm | Azeri: over the top?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:28 pm | I was never a great Azeri fan even when she was on top. She basically kept beating the same six-horse fields in California. I would have been against her even if her winning streak were still alive. So I'm definitely trying to beat her now.
|
speedball:
5:28 pm | Team Valor thinks they have a champion filly in Forest Music. Can she win off just one lifetime race?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:30 pm | This is a Michael Gill horse--not Team Valor, unless they've bought her in the last day or two. Regardless, I think it's a terrific mistake to run her. She has no chance going from a 6f maiden race into a field of this quality. She's obviously got superior talent, based on that figure of 105, but they should take their time with her.
|
KIRISCLOWN:
5:30 pm | Andy, any opinion on HOLD THAT TIGER?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:31 pm | I thought, after last year's Breeders' Cup, that he was good enough to win the Ky. Derby, but he's been a disappointment since, and he didn't do enough against Mineshaft to suggest that he can with the Classic.
|
TC:
5:31 pm | Do you really think Funny Cide has any chance at all in BCC?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:32 pm | None whatsoever. He hasn't run a good race since May, and even his best form isn't good enough to beat this field. I have the greatest respect for Barclay Tagg, but I'm really surprised that he decided to run.
|
smit:
5:32 pm | Is 6f a problem for Aldebaran?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:33 pm | Yes. He's really a 7-furlong horse. With his lack of early speed, and the nature of the Santa Anita track, I have to bet against him--even with that fig of 122 in his last start.
|
seattleallstar:
5:33 pm | what do you think of Dynevers chances of putting it all together next saturday
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:35 pm | I am a charter member of the Dynever fan club, and none of his defeats in his last few starts has completely discouraged me. I took him in the BC future book so I'm already committed, and I hope that all the speed in the Classic will finally give him a chance to unleash that big kick he has.
|
unitas:
5:35 pm | Mr. Beyer, do you believe that Mr. Frankel has erred again in not getting a race into Medaglia d`Oro before the Classic, just like he did last year, when the horse looked a little short in unning second to Volponi?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:36 pm | Frankel has had so much success getting maximum performances out of horses with a layoff like this that I would certainly hesitate to second-guess his strategy. But it didn't work last year, did it? As good as he is, Medaglia has disappointed a lot of times in the big races.
|
churchillguy:
5:36 pm | Do you feel Halfbrildled is really much stronger then the 2 Baffert fillies?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:38 pm | I am not as convinced that Halfbridled is a big standout as most of the world seems to be. Her figures are a little better than her competition (except for Forest Music, who isn't going to come close to that 105) but she's had pretty favorable trips to earn them. She benefited from being on the lead in a slow pace in the Oak Leaf, and she had a perfect rail trip at Del Mar. I can't see her ...
|
threedee:
5:38 pm | Is Class Above another Vindication or a sucker horse in your view?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:39 pm | I don't think anybody can be sure. I thought she looked pretty impressive visually in the Turfway race, and the fig of 93 was certainly respectable, but romps against mediocre fields can often be deceptive. I don't know what to do with her.
|
PYLONDUDE:
5:40 pm | Andy, the Filly and Mare Turf appears to be stacked to me, tough race to call, what do you know about Islington?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:41 pm | Obviously, she's a strong contender after losing a photo to High Chapparal in her last start. But the US-based fillies and mares on grass are a pretty tough group. Remember last year: both Islington and Banks Hill came into the race showing excellent recent form against top males in Europe, and yet the US-based Starine beat them. This race is a toughie.
|
Jim:
5:42 pm | Pleasantly Perfect had to work hard in his comeback race & then went too fast in a workout. Bad signs?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:43 pm | I can't assess the work, but his figure in the comeback race--a 105--is too weak for me to consider him a strong contender.
|
jimmyob:
5:43 pm | Give me your opinion of High Chapparel. He was a monster last year.
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:44 pm | On paper he certainly looks solid again--you have to forgive that third-place finish over a very deep track in the Arc. But the English bookmakers' lines rate Falbrav clearly above him; I'm not sure what they know.
|
oscar:
5:44 pm | Ten Most Wanted may not be the fastest horse out there, but I think the Classic sets up for either him or Perfect Drift with Congaree (if he goes), and Funny Cide setting a very fast pace. What are your thoughts please?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:46 pm | I agree that the pace of the Classic may well favor a come-from-behind runner. Besides the horses you mention, Medaglia d'Oro will be right in the mix as well. I'm just not certain how good Ten Most Wanted is in relation to the established older horses. He got a perfect setup in the Travers and he won the Super Derby as the 1-2 favorite in a 6-horse field. I'm not convinced by him.
|
baggs:
5:46 pm | Andy, does Peace Rules have any chance in the races he`s entered?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:47 pm | He's definitely got a shot in the Mile. Earlier in his career he was thought to be a turf specialist. He may fit very well in this field, but it's certainly a wide-open race.
|
Empire.Maker:
5:47 pm | I think that Evening Attire could be a live longshot with many of his races being given a 110 or above - how do you feel abouthim
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:48 pm | If there's a fast pace he might pick up the pieces and get into the superfecta, but I don't think his form is strong enough to suggest that he can win.
|
horse.doc:
5:49 pm | Can I single storming home? and hold my breath in the stretch?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:50 pm | That would be a very risky single. I don't think you can argue that he's any better than Sulamani, based on the evidence of the trouble-filled arlington million. And both High Chaparral and Falbrav would seem to have credentials that are as strong as his.
|
echoeddie:
5:50 pm | Do you give Midas Eyes any shot in the sprint ?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:50 pm | Even for a Frankel horse, the layoff is a little too long for me.
|
railbird:
5:51 pm | Is Musical Chimes as good as Gary Stevens claims?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:52 pm | Her race in the Yellow Ribbon was sensational, I thought. The last half mile went in :45 4/5 and she was gaining on everybody. Her closing fractions were even better than Storming Home's over the same course. So she looks pretty good.
|
zebra:
5:53 pm | How well do you think Perfect Drift will be prepared for the Classic since he was pointed for the race?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:54 pm | That's the big question about him--I don't like to see a horse coming into a race like this as an afterthought.
|
texasrailbird:
5:54 pm | how do you compare beyer figures to timeform figures ?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:56 pm | My rough rule of thumb is to subtract 14 points from the Timeform number, and it works out remarkably well. Timeform superstars get a rating around 140, and the best Beyer figures in recent years have been 126s. The 14-point difference works with lesser horses as well. If this is correct, then Falbrav may be the horse in the Turf, with a Timeform rating of 131+.
|
phred:
5:57 pm | is it smart to pass JUv if you have a talented 2yr old as so many have done this year ?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:59 pm | I think the connections of these 2-year-olds are making a mistake. Plenty of horses have run in the Juvenile and come back to win Triple Crown races, even if nobody has yet pulled off the Juvenile-Derby double. The defection that's the most incomprehensible is Ruler's Court. He was based at Santa Anita, won the Norfolk and would have been the favorite; a win would have made him the Eclipse ...
|
ANDY_BEYER:
5:59 pm | winner. No matter what their apologists say about them, the sheikhs aren't all that smart.
|
KIRISCLOWN:
6:00 pm | Andy what are your thoughts on CUVEE? can he handle the 2 turns?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:00 pm | We won't know for sure till he tries it, but with his breeding, and the expected short price, I'd be inclined to get against him.
|
StarHandicapper:
6:01 pm | What is more important when determining if a 3-year old can be competitive with older horses this "late" in the year, experience (many races) or trainer
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:01 pm | I'd look first and foremost at the horses
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:02 pm | speed figures. Also, this is the time of year when 3-year-olds are often on the upgrade while some of the older horses are getting a little battle weary, so an improving 3-year-old might be able to overcome slightly inferior numbers.
|
jason:
6:02 pm | Andy what is the average winnging Beyer for the classic and does Volponi have a shot?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:03 pm | I don't have it at my fingertips, but I think it's about 116. I can't see Volponi this year off his recent form. Of course, I couldn't see him last year, either.
|
Tiznowfan:
6:03 pm | Could you envision a Breeders Cup Championship day ever being staged at Saratoga? If not, why?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:04 pm | The weather, that's why. I personally wish they would run the Cup at warm-weather sites all the time.
|
speed2spare:
6:05 pm | Azeri or Sightseek? Yankees or Marlins?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:05 pm | Sightseek and Yankees. Of the two underdogs, I think the Marlins have a better chance.
|
whitey1961:
6:06 pm | Does the Santa Anita track favor greatly the horses that have run in races rather than who have only trained on the track surface
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:07 pm | I don't know that Santa Anita experience is necessarily relevant. What is important, at Santa Anita and the other California tracks, is that a horse possess enough quickness to get into reasonable early contention. The Aldebaran types are always going to be at a disadvantage.
|
GMan:
6:08 pm | What a solid “Cup”. The fields appear very competitive. This is best day for wagering on long shots on the racing calendar. Are you looking at any specific long shots to win or hit the board?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:09 pm | I agree with you that this is a day to look for prices--particularly because a lot of short-price horses look very beatable (Azeri Halfbridled, Aldebaran, Cuvee, etc.) As I mentioned early, I think Dynever has a chance at a big price in the Classic. Cajun Beat is an interesting proposition in the Sprint.
|
Oaktown57:
6:10 pm | How do you think the European contingent will do in the BC races, considering that they`ll be held this year at a warm-weather location?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:10 pm | I suppose it's not as good for them as the East, but good Europeans have done well enough in California in the past, and they seem to have solid contenders in all the grass races.
|
wgh13:
6:11 pm | Could you please explain how Shake You Down earned Beyer rating of 121 in the Smile Sprint running 6F in 1:10.03 while Valid Video earned a Beyer fig of 110 running 6F in 1:10.15 on the same day in the Carry Back?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:13 pm | My partner Mark Hopkins, who does the Calder figures, agonized over that day and concluded that the track had gotten slower when Shake You Down ran. Obviously, he ran a blockbuster race winning by 8 over that field. There's no way Valid Video could have run in the 120 range, however.
|
alanmc:
6:14 pm | Andy, can we throw out Siphonizer`s last out?
|
ANDY_BEYER:
6:14 pm | Even if you do, his career best figure is an 86 and that's not going to be good enough.
|
