Crist's Wednesday BC diary with selections and analysis
By STEVEN CRIST

BC odds and analysis (Pdf)
By MIKE WATCHMAKER

Expect mix of favorites, bombs on Breeders' Cup Day
By NOEL MICHAELS

Aldebaran, Starine rate upset chance
By GEORGE COTTRELL

DRF handicappers and columnists selections (Pdf)
By DRF STAFF

Subscribers Only: DRF Handicappers' Analysis Features

:: Distaff
:: Juvenile Fillies
:: Mile
:: Sprint
:: Filly & Mare Turf
:: Juvenile
:: Turf
:: Classic

Expect mix of favorites, bombs on Breeders' Cup Day
By NOEL MICHAELS

The Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships will be run for the first time at Arlington Park in my hometown of Chicago. As usual, the eight-race championship card looks amazing, with ample betting opportunities for chalk players and longshot players alike.

Some of this year's Breeders' Cup races, like the Juvenile Fillies and the Mile, seem destined to be ruled by favorites, while others like the Distaff, Juvenile, Classic and most of the rest look like wide open betting races where just about any horse can win. Therefore, it should be safe to expect payoffs ranging from miniscule to monstrous throughout the day at chilly Arlington Park.

Good luck on Breeders' Cup Day. Here are my selections.

BREEDERS' CUP SELECTIONS:

DISTAFF
Arlington - Race 3
Fillies & mares, 1 1/8 miles, purse: $2,000,000
1) Farda Amiga
2) Imperial Gesture
3) Azeri

There is plenty of speed entered in the Distaff, and the expected fast pace should set things up for lightly-raced Farda Amiga, a horse who only shows up on big days and wins more than she loses. Farda Amiga is the leader of the 3-year-old filly division following wins in the G1-Kentucky Oaks and G1-Alabama. Despite those key victories, however, she should offer value odds in the Breeders' Cup, because this will be her first race against older horses. The horses to beat, Imperial Gesture and Azeri are both front-runners and will each need to shake loose of the other if either hopes to win. Azeri probably has already locked up the older filly/mare Eclipse on the strength of six straight wins coming into this race, but the best recent Beyer speed figure in this field belongs to 3-y-o Imperial Gesture, who earned a 112 in the G1-Gazelle Handicap at Belmont.

JUVENILE FILLIES
Arlington - Race 4
2-year-old fillies, 1 1/8 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) Storm Flag Flying
2) Composure
3) Santa Catarina

Undefeated Storm Flag Flying is the clear standout in the Juvenile Fillies, and should be a short-priced winner based on her back-to-back stakes wins in the G1-Matron and G1-Frizette at Belmont Park. Storm Flag Flying keeps improving as the distances get longer, and this year's Juvenile Fillies distance of 1 1/8 miles should be no problem whatsoever for the daughter of My Flag and the granddaughter of Personal Ensign. In the race for second, the top contender is Composure, Bob Baffert's three-length winner of the G2-Oak Leaf at Santa Anita. Composure is already a winner at 1 1/16 miles, and this added distance also should be no problem for her. Santa Catarina shipped from California to New York and lost to Storm Flag Flying on her home track by two lengths. She should be good enough to hit the board in this race.

MILE
Arlington - Race 5
1 mile Turf, purse: $1,000,000
1) Rock Of Gibralter
2) Good Journey
3) Domedriver

The pick six begins with possibly the safest single on the card, with Rock Of Gibralter, the world's best miler and perhaps the world's best horse this year, towering over his 13 rivals. Rock's post position No. 10 is not the best, but he can overcome it based on his record seven straight Group 1 wins in Europe this year. Rock Of Gibralter's winning streak was accomplished at five different tracks on courses ranging from heavy to good (firm), so he should have no trouble at Arlington no matter what the weather. The favorite's top competition should come from Good Journey, a horse who comes into this race with four straight wins capped by a convincing length score in the G1-Atto Mile at Woodbine. Good Journey is a turf mile specialist, and the Breeders' Cup Mile is almost always won by turf mile specialists. This gives Good Journey the edge over other American horses in the Mile like Aldebaran (Good Journey's half brother) and Beat Hollow. Good Journey's sharp current form gives him the edge over Del Mar Show and Forbidden Apple. Try rounding out your trifectas with the second-best European in the race, Domedriver, who was second to Banks Hill two races ago in the G1-Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville.

SPRINT
Arlington - Race 6
6 furlongs, purse: $1,000,000
1) Xtra Heat
2) Orientate
3) Swept Overboard

As always, there is a lot of speed entered in the Sprint, but just like last year, the speed-of-the-speed will be the brilliant filly Xtra Heat, who will try to get a jump on her competition and go wire-to-wire. Xtra Heat settled for second in last year's Sprint, but she should benefit from that experience this year. Xtra Heat is a horse you want to have your money on. She is as game as they come and doesn't know the meaning of the word quit. Best of all, she finally beat males for the first time in her last race, a three-length win in the G3-Phoenix Breeder's Cup at Keeneland when she won despite dueling for the lead through a huge first quarter-mile fraction of :21.1. A repeat of that effort at Arlington makes her a winner. Orientate has been the leader of the sprint division this year and comes into this race fresh and ready to roll for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Lukas tried Orientate at longer distances and even on turf, but he has been absolutely unbeatable since being switched back to sprints four races ago. Orientate's four wins in a row have come by a combined total of 15 lengths, and include a win in the G1-Forego Handicap at Saratoga. If the speed horses totally fall apart, the best closer in the Sprint is Swept Overboard, who will be making his second start off a long layoff in this race. Swept Overboard won the G1-Metropolitan Mile by 4+ lengths with an enormous 122 Beyer, and was fourth beaten only a length in last year's Sprint after spending the whole race inside on a dead rail. Bonapaw is sharp right now and likes Arlington, but he won't get the lead here and that won't help his chances.

FILLY & MARE TURF
Arlington - Race 7
1 1/4 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) Golden Apples
2) Turtle Bow
3) Islington

The Americans' best chance at a Breeders' Cup grass win this year lies with Golden Apples, who was this country's best female turf horse this season. Golden Apples comes into the Filly & Mare Turf off back-to-back Grade 1 wins, including a win in the Beverly D. right here on this turf course at Arlington Park. The longshot special in the Filly & Mare Turf is Turtle Bow, who could win a pay a big price if Golden Apples doesn't show up with her best race. Turtle Bow was catching-up to Kazzia in the G1-Flower Bowl at Belmont last time, but fell a neck short of that foe after her jockey lost the whip in mid-stretch. Turtle Bow has good tactical speed, and seems to run equally well at any distance and on any surface. Islington is Europe's best 3-year-old filly. After two Group 1 wins in a row in Great Britain, Islington took on the boys and finished a close fifth in Europe's most presigeous race, the G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. She's back against fillies-only in this race, but may prefer a more firm turf course in order to do her best running.

JUVENILE
Arlington - Race 8
2-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles, purse: $1,000,000
1) Listen Indy
2) Wando
3) Whywhywhy

The Juvenile is a wide-open race which looks like an ideal spot to shop around for an upset winner. The likely favorite, Vindication, could be overrated, so I'm going with longshot Listen Indy who should love the added distance in the 1 1/8-mile Juvenile. Listen Indy's Beyer figures have improved in every race as the distances have stretched out from six furlongs, to seven furlongs, to a mile, and then to 1 1/16 miles when he was third in the G2-Norfolk at Santa Anita. Listen Indy will be a perfect spot stalking the pace, and should be able to rally past the speed horses down Arlington's long stretch. Another interesting longshot is Wando, who ran a very nice-looking race at Woodbine last time out, winning the G2-Grey Breeders' Cup by 3 3/4-lengths with first-time Lasix. Wando should get this distance with no problem, and he will likely be 20-1 despite the fact that his Beyers stack-up well with the rest of this field. Unlike Belmont where Johannesburg stretched out and won last year's 1 1/16-mile Juvenile, this year's juvenile will be longer and around two turns at Arlington Park. Therefore, I'm tossing out all of Aidan O'Brien's Europeans and zeroing in on Whywhywhy to round-out my top three selections. Whywhywhy has won three graded stakes in a row including the G1-Futurity at Belmont Park in his last start.

TURF
Arlington - Race 9
1 1/2 miles Turf, purse: $2,000,000
1) High Chaparral
2) Falcon Flight
3) Ballingarry

High Chaparral won both the English and Irish Derbies and then proved he's for real last time out with a third-place finish in his first race against older horses in the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in Paris. He is the horse to beat. With the Breeders' Cup at Arlington, we don't have too many opportunities to talk about horses-for-the-course. However, one horse who absolutely loves Arlington's turf course is Falcon Flight, who owns two stakes wins here and would have been the clear winner of this year's G1-Arlington Million if he didn't get bottled up in traffic inside throughout the entire stretch run. Falcon Flight handles firm or soft turf, can handle the 1 1/2-mile distance, and could end up turning the tables on Ballingarry thanks to his affinity for Arlington's turf. Ballingarry finished third behind High Chaparral in the Irish Derby, and then made High Chaparral look good when he came to Canada and scored a big win in the G1-Canadian International at Woodbine.

CLASSIC
Arlington - Race 10
1 1/4 miles, purse: $4,000,000
1) Volponi
2) War Emblem
3) Evening Attire

The Classic division is a mess this year and this race could easily be won by any of its 12 entrants. Therefore, why not roll the dice and take one of the longest shots on the board. Volponi will be 30-1, but he looks just as good as the rest of this field based on his best dirt efforts including a 113 Beyer in last year's G2-Pegasus. After a foot injury kept him out of the Brooklyn Handicap earlier this year, Volponi was kept on grass for much of the summer where he butted heads competitively with the best grass horses in the country. He returned to the dirt with a runner-up finish in the G2-Meadowlands Cup last time out, and should be sitting on a big effort with his speed figures back on the upswing just in time for this race. Volponi will add blinkers for the Classic, and should be sitting in a perfect spot about 2-4 lengths off the lead behind speedy horses like War Emblem, E Dubai, Medaglia d'Oro, and Came Home. Many of his rivals in the Classic may be vulnerable against a good field at 1 1/4 miles, but Volponi should love this distance based on his good effort behind With Anticipation and Denon in the G1-Sword Dancer at 1 1/2 miles on turf at Saratoga. War Emblem won races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Haskell, and Illinois Derby by getting easy leads - even when he wasn't supposed to - and going wire-to-wire. He's going out for the lead again in the Classic, and he could be long gone yet again unless the highly-suspect E Dubai can keep up with him early. No horse comes into the Classic in better form than Evening Attire, who posted back-to-back 1 1/4-mile wins in the G2-Saratoga Breeders' Cup and the G1-Jockey Club Gold Cup. Still, the talent gap between Evening Attire and horses like Volponi looks very small or non-existent this year, so why not take a shot on Volponi or your preferred longshot of choice in this year's Classic.

Aldebaran, Starine rate upset chance
By GEORGE COTTRELL

DISTAFF

1. Azeri
2. Summer Colony
3. Take Charge Lady
4. Starrer

First thing to be aware of about AZERI is that she was geared down late in last one and do know that her west coast wins happened with ridiculous ease. SUMMER COLONY has beaten the top pick and owns an impressive record going 2 turns on dirt while having lost every start in other situations. TAKE CHARGE LADY is a versatile 3yo capable of improving. STARRER, who was dragged through 6 furs. in about 1:10 last time, figures more potent with more pace and added distance and could atone for last year's misfortune in this event.

JUVENILE FILLIES

1. Storm Flag Flying
2. Santa Catarina
3. Composure
4. Ivanavinalot

STORM FLAG FLYING's dam won this event in '95 and the added distance plays right into this one's hand as My Flag was later third in the Belmont Stakes. Clear choice. SANTA CATARINA was recently second to Storm' but BC 2yo's without a prior win in the eastern time zone of the U.S. are 8-for-169 (those 8 combined for just 4 wins during the rest of their careers). COMPOSURE is another western 2yo but her steady improvement and easy adjustment to 2 turns merit contender status. IVANAVINALOT has been beating up on Calder set and gets a class test now.

MILE

1. Aldebaran
2. Rock Of Gibraltar
3. Forbidden Apple
4. Good Journey

ALDEBARAN, a booming winner of only U.S. start at 8 panels on grass and the solid runner-up in many impossible situations since then, rates big shot at a decent number. ROCK OF GIBRALTAR, a much better fit here than in the Classic, is the obvious horse to beat as he guns for 8 Gr. I wins in a row. FORBIDDEN APPLE was a solid second in this race a year ago and has been competitive all year without winning. GOOD JOURNEY guns for fifth straight after winning the most important Canadian event for this set.

SPRINT

1. Kona Gold
2. Orientate
3. Swept Overboard
4. Touch Tone

KONA GOLD is 6-for-7 off the bench in the 00's with a minimum Beyer of 112 in those starts. Sprint is right in his wheelhouse for the first time. Hot pace helps cause. ORIENTATE, the dominant sprinter in the east, hasn't won without first being more than a length clear a furlong out. Steady pressure complicates task. SWEPT OVERBOARD, the only runner to beat the top pick off the bench since the 1990's, benefited from favorable race shape. Love the Ronny Werner success story and TOUCH TONE is his young, lightly-raced improvement candidate who battled with Xtra Heat in prep.

FILLY & MARE TURF

1. Starine
2. Banks Hill
3. Golden Apples
4. Islington

STARINE's worst U.S. performances have all happened at Bel, where the lawn was unkind to speed types in last year's BC. Lightly-raced miss is ready to make amends with a big one today. BANKS HILL was ultra impressive in winning this a year ago and had some trouble in the Yellow Ribbon. The one to beat. Consistent GOLDEN APPLES beat the fave in last one and has traded decisions with top pick. ISLINGTON played watchdog in the Arc and was right there in a clustered finish. She romped in a pair of Group I's vs. her own gender previously.

JUVENILE

1. Sky Mesa
2. Vindication
3. Toccet
4. Whywhywhy

SKY MESA has passed every test with ease and has a pedigree of which we can't get enough, figures tough in the end. Shrewd move by Baffert to send $2.1mil. yearling VINDICATION to eastern proving grounds as exclusive westerners have been disadvantaged in BC 2yo events. TOCCET stepped up his game for third consecutive time in the Champagne. Post complicates his task but few others boast 2 route wins. WHYWHYWHY is another improving colt who does well when fresh and he's had almost 6 weeks to recover from strong Futurity win but there are distance questions.

TURF

1. Golan
2. High Chaparral
3. With Anticipation
4. Denon

GOLAN, the most stoutly-bred runner in this group, is strong off the shelf. At worst he missed third by a length in the Japan Cup and missed second by a length in last year's Arc. HIGH CHAPARRAL was all the European rave midway through the year but we expected more last out, even off the bench. Runners racing 1-2-3 at that first call in the Turf Classic ended up 8-7-6 respectively so WITH ANTICIPATION may be the value horse here. He was compromised by Bel lawn in '01 'Cup. DENON couldn't top third pick over the summer but could threaten.

CLASSIC

1. Medaglia d'Oro
2. Evening Attire
3. Came Home
4. War Emblem

MEDAGLIA D'ORO gets the call off of general consistency, obvious ability, lightly-raced status and sophomore improvement prospects in a wide-open betting race. EVENING ATTIRE's two worst efforts since toppling Street Cry a year ago happened when caught behind a paceless group in the Suburban and when perhaps too fresh off the bench last April. He's in fine form now. Pacific Classic set up nicely for CAME HOME who collared the speedsters before the closers got to him. Soph. improvement possible but stamina questions linger. WAR EMBLEM seems most likely to win on the lead.