Crist's BC Diary - Wednesday, Oct. 23
By STEVEN CRIST
My 1-2-3 Breeders' Cup picks for Saturday's newspaper were due at 6 p.m. Wednesday, and newsprint costing what it does, I supplied 24 names without accompanying rationalizations of my selections. Thanks to the miracle of the Internet, however, on-line readers who dare to continue can have that dubious pleasure here in cyberspace.
Fortunately for all of us, I make a full card of public-handicapper-style selections but once a year, and doing so always fills me with renewed admiration for the DRF handicappers who do it every day. Every race raises classic dilemmas - do you pick the most likely winner regardless of price or the likeliest overlay? If you're planning to try beating a favorite who you nonetheless acknowledge can win, do you put him third as a sign of respect or toss him completely? The answer to these and most related questions is an unsatisfying "It depends."
In that spirit, here's where I came out:
Distaff
1. Summer Colony
2. Take Charge Lady
3. Farda Amiga
Obviously, I'm trying to beat Azeri. It's not that she isn't an admirable filly, and if she can beat this spectacular field to run her record to 10 for 11, my hat is off to her. But to my mind she is a horrendous underlay at 6-5 on the morning line. She's a) no faster than half the field and b) liable to get hooked up with Imperial Gesture early.
At 5-1, I'll take my chances with Summer Colony. She beat the favorite in their only meeting, she's just as fast on her best day, and I can forgive her last race because she really does seem much better going two turns than one. Take Charge Lady is solid and eligible to get even better. Farda Amiga is a little slow, but if I'm right about the pace she'll be flying at the end and is perfectly playable at anything close to her 12-1 morning-line price.
Juvenile Fillies
1. Storm Flag Flying
2. Ivanavinalot
3. Composure
I'm not trying to beat this favorite. I'll admit I'm prejudicially fond of Phipps/McGaughey horses in general and ones with Easy Goer and Personal Ensign in their pedigrees in particular, but this filly just plain looks to be in a league of her own after powerful victories in the Matron and Frizette. She's a bit of a head case, she hasn't run outside New York, and she hasn't been two turns, but she looks to have a margin of error here.
Ivanavinalot has been earning big figures drowning overmatched fields at Calder. I'd hate her as the second choice but at 15-1 she may just be second best. Composure merits respect off her Oak Leaf. No one else seems all that compelling.
Mile
1. Rock of Gibraltar
2. Beat Hollow
3. Forbidden Apple
I'm surprised and a little disappointed that Rock of Gibraltar wasn't entered in the Classic because winning this race will only confirm his strengths, whereas a good showing in the Classic would have added new dimension to him and made both that race and this one more interesting. I suppose the good news is that I've now got my single on most of my Ultra Pick Six tickets. Rock of Gibraltar is clearly Europe's best miler and his usual race simply lays over this field. He's eligible, as is any European, to throw in a bad one, but he has only himself to beat here.
Both Beat Hollow and Forbidden Apple moved too soon and came up short in their final Breeders' Cup preps. They're the best of the Americans and may offer a tiny bit of value here as most will dismiss their last races as signs of tailing off rather than poor rides.
Sprint
1. Swept Overboard
2. Orientate
3. Kona Gold
I'll be using my top two choices in equal strength in multirace wagers. I loved Swept Overboard in this race last year and actually thought he turned in a huge effort to be a rallying close fourth on a bad rail against three front-runners who went relatively slowly early. I think there's even more one-way speed in this year's field, and Swept Overboard's "A" race gets the job done.
Orientate has run nothing but one good race after another this summer and won them all without a clear early lead. If he can lay just off the speed in here, he can get a dream trip.
I just can't make anyone else win the race without speed-popping the field and there's enough heat in here to make that unlikely. The only horse who can rate and is as good as the top two on his best day is Kona Gold. His recent form and fitness are suspect but if he's got a top effort left in him, he could do it one more time.
Filly and Mare Turf
1. Islington
2. Banks Hill
3. Starine
After the way Banks Hill destroyed last year's similar-looking field in this race, I have to like either her or this year's version of her - Islington, who has had an even better 3-year-old campaign than Banks Hill did coming into the race a year ago. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Golden Apples, but she'll be an underlay and may simply be the third best horse in the race. Why didn't I pick her third? Because she's 5-2 on the morning line and Starine - who had a deceptively good comeback prep for this and is occasionally explosive - is 12-1.
Juvenile
1. Whywhywhy
2. Toccet
3. Zavata
Obviously I'm trying to beat Sky Mesa. His Saratoga debut was scintillating, his Hopeful was flawless, and he won the Breeders' Futurity by daylight. I just wasn't crazy about the way he stretched out in that race and I think he's vulnerable. I won't be shocked if he wins, and I'll use him as a multirace backup, but I'm willing to stand against him at a short price.
The other three fastest horses in the race will all be overlaid with Sky Mesa and the flashy but figure-challenged Vindication taking so much money. Whywhywhy has done nothing wrong, is as fast as anyone, and 6-1 is a square price that he's more than a closing sprinter. Toccet won a weak Champagne but has improved sharply from race to race and has handled himself well at two turns. Zavata is a stretch and may be a pure sprinter, but there's not much early speed in this race and he was brilliant this summer. At 20-1, he's worth a War Emblem-in-the-Derby kind of flier.
Turf
1. Golan
2. High Chapparal
3. With Anticipation
The European grass horses are simply better than the locals and Golan and High Chapparal stand out. They look even on their best day so my nod went to Golan at the higher price. Of the stateside group, With Anticipation is a few inches better than Denon but will probably be a bigger price after throwing in a clunker on soft turf last time.
Classic
1. Evening Attire
2. Milwaukee Brew
3. Hawk Wing
A trio of American 3-year-olds are the favorites here - War Emblem at 3-1, Medaglia d'Oro at 7-2 and Came Home at 4-1 - and I'm going to try to get them all out of the money. War Emblem and Medaglia d'Oro are extremely impressive when they get things their way, but both are going to be fresh and eager coming off long layoffs and could cancel each other out early. As for Came Home, I remain unconvinced that 10 furlongs is his best game on a less forgiving track than Del Mar's.
Evening Attire couldn't handle the best of the handicap division earlier this year but he has improved since then and has the right running style to capitalize if the race falls apart. Milwaukee Brew is erratic, but his best effort puts him right there and he's a good gamble at 15-1. Hawk Wing is a pure guess, but if the 3-year-olds are indeed vulnerable and the older horses less than vintage, it's a good spot for a stranger to surprise. If I had a fourth pick, I would toss Macho Uno into the mix at 20-1.
Whew. I'm glad I don't do this every day.
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