Breeders' Cup Chat with Alan Shuback 10/22/2002 5:02 pm - 6:07 pm
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DIBBSNDUBBS:
5:02 pm | ALAN... what is your impression of VAN NISTLEROOY, and HOLD THAT TIGER.....do you give either of them a legitimate chance in the Juvenile?
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Alan Shuback:
5:03 pm | I think both horses have a decent chance of victory if they can transfer their turf form to dirt. Both have dirt pedigrees, both are by Storm Cat....
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Alan Shuback:
5:05 pm | Hold That Tiger finished full of run going 7 furlongs in his last start. He is a half-brother to Editor's Note, winner of the Belmont Stakes, so 1 and 1/8 miles should not be any problem for him.....
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Alan Shuback:
5:06 pm | Van Nistelrooy finished well after a troubled trip going a mile last time, but will have to overcome some lazy habits he has developed in order to be a factor.
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DIBBSNDUBBS:
5:06 pm | ALAN...In your opinion who is the better horse....HIGH CHAPERRAL, or GOLAN?
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Alan Shuback:
5:08 pm | It is difficult to choose between the two, but I think High Chaparral has a slight edge at this time. He was in need of the race when he finished 3rd in the Arc, and will improve for that effort....
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Alan Shuback:
5:09 pm | Golan has not run since Aug 20th and while he runs well fresh - his victory in the King George off an 8-month layoff is a perfect example - he is coming out of a 2nd in the Juddmonte Int'l, and no horse has ever come directly out of that race to win a BC race.
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Prof:
5:09 pm | Do you really think Rock of Gibralter can win at a mile and quarter on the dirt when he`s never been asked to do either?
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Alan Shuback:
5:10 pm | I think Rock of Gibralter wil be able to handle the dirt....
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Alan Shuback:
5:10 pm | He is by the terrific Danzig stallion Danehill and both of them get winners on dirt....
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Alan Shuback:
5:11 pm | However, I believe that his pedigree suggests that he has distance limitations and may not be able to get much further than a mile.
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Alan Shuback:
5:12 pm | That said, this year's Classic is the weakest in memory and Rock of Gibralter's class may be enough to get him to victory.
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DAVE_K1:
5:12 pm | Do you think Ballingarry improved a lot to win the Can. lnt., or did he run to his form overseas? Because he was a second string horse over there, and beat a pretty good field.
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Alan Shuback:
5:14 pm | I believe that Ballingarry ran much the same race at Woodbine that he did when 2nd in the Italian Derby, 3rd in the Irish Derby, and 3rd in the Irish St. Leger. You are correct when you say that he was one of O'Brien's 2nd stringers that is one of the reasons why the Magniers sold him to the Sidney L. Port Trust.
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Baba.O.Reilly:
5:14 pm | Alan, is Islington poised to be another Euroflop? She looks greats on paper, but top horses coming out of the Arc usually come up lacking in the BC.
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Alan Shuback:
5:15 pm | That is a misconception about horses coming out of the Arc. While no Arc winner has ever won the BC Turf, 3 other horses have come out of the Arc to win the Turf. Islington will be returning to Filly and Mare company in the F&M Turf....
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Alan Shuback:
5:16 pm | She will be very difficult to beat on good to firm ground as she showed when winning the Nassau Stakes and the Yorkshire Oaks by a total of 9 lengths. I also think that a mile and a 1/4 is her best distance. She is my value play of the day, this year's version of Banks Hill.
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SILVERCHARMW:
5:17 pm | Some pundits think Banks Hill is over the top. Your opinion?
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Alan Shuback:
5:17 pm | I do not necessarily think that Banks Hill is over the top, but I do think that she has not improved since last year....
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Alan Shuback:
5:18 pm | She must have firm ground to do her best, and that was not always something that she got in Europe this year. As a result, her races were not staggered to her benefit, I believe that she will give a good account of herself on Saturday...
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Alan Shuback:
5:19 pm | However, Islington will beat her on firm ground, while if the ground comes up soft - she will not run at all.
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cal:
5:19 pm | If the big two from Europe go in the Classic, what chance do you give Dress to Thrill in the Mile?
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Alan Shuback:
5:20 pm | First of all, Hawk Wing is almost certain to go in the Classic if he travels well from Ireland....
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Alan Shuback:
5:20 pm | If Rock of Gibralter goes in the Classic, and it is my personal belief that he will, the Mile looks wide open.
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Alan Shuback:
5:21 pm | I think that Bobby Frankel is making a mistake in running Beat Hollow in the Mile. He is a 10f horse who would be better suited by the mile and 1/2 of the turf....
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Alan Shuback:
5:22 pm | Dressed To Thrill has done nothing wrong this year. She has beaten older fillys and colts on seperate occaisions, is still improving, and stands a good chance at a price if "Rock" goes in the Classic.
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threedee:
5:22 pm | Alan - what do you think of Reach for the Moon?
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Alan Shuback:
5:23 pm | The filly has been withdrawn from the Juvenile Fillies due to a fractured leg. It is hoped that they can save her for racing next year....
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Alan Shuback:
5:24 pm | She is talented and was 2nd after a troubled trip in the Group I Fillies Mile last time. She would have been an interesting proposition in the Juvenile Fillies.
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Favorite.Trick:
5:24 pm | Who has abetter chance in the Mile Gossamer or Medecis - does either of them have a shot to win?
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Alan Shuback:
5:25 pm | Gossamer must have soft ground in order to have a chance. Medecis is a nice horse who appears to be in a bit deeply....
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Alan Shuback:
5:26 pm | Gossamer would stand no chance on good to firm ground, but would have a very good chance on soft ground as long as Rock of Gibraltar, who runs on any kind of turf, goes in the Classic.
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raven:
5:26 pm | Was Kazzia`s English Oaks triumph as good as it looks or did it have to do more with the soft footing?
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Alan Shuback:
5:27 pm | Yes- it was as good as it looks, but I must ask the questioner why he thinks races run on soft ground are somehow less valid. Racing is an outdoor sport and if the ground is soft at Arlington on Saturday, Kazzia and Turtle Bow would both stand better chances of victory than Banks Hill, Islington, or Golden Apples.
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trafficed:
5:28 pm | I miss the days of European Entries in the sprint. Why the void? We got a good price one year!
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Alan Shuback:
5:28 pm | European sprinters have been woeful the last few years....
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Alan Shuback:
5:30 pm | Their performances in the Dubai Golden Shaheen, the BC Sprint and the Hong Kong Sprint have exposed them as second raters when faced with the speed shown by American, Australian, and Asian sprinters....
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Alan Shuback:
5:30 pm | This year's best European sprinters took turns beating each other, a sure sign of their mediocrity. European trainers did the right thing in not entering any sprinters in this year's Sprint.
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cooker:
5:31 pm | What are your thoughts on Domedriver in the Mile?
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Alan Shuback:
5:32 pm | I believe that Domedriver is a nice Group 2 type of miler. He has never faced the type of speedy milers he will face on Saturday...
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Alan Shuback:
5:32 pm | He is a slow starter who will be running late, but will not get there nearly in time.
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KEARNSY1:
5:32 pm | Would you like to see the BC alternate between the U.S and Europe like the ryder cup but on a yearly basis?
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Alan Shuback:
5:34 pm | No I would not. The BC is an American event and belongs in the U.S. Longchamp has its Arc weekend. Nad Al Sheba has its Dubai World Cup night, and Sha Tin has its Hong Kong Int'l Day....
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Alan Shuback:
5:35 pm | No one would suggest that any of those tracks share their big event with a foreign track. Can you imagine American trainers sending 2yo's to run an uphill mile on turf in the Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies? I can't.
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Annie:
5:35 pm | Why would Aidan O`Brien consider running two year olds, Tomahawk and Marino, off only one week`s rest?
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Alan Shuback:
5:36 pm | I am not privy to the inner workings of O'Brien's mind. However, it must be understood that the Coolmore operation is geared primarily to breeding....
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Alan Shuback:
5:37 pm | While it is unconventional to run such good horses in Group 1 races on a weeks notice, O'Brien is trying to maximize his horses' value by running them in races which appeal to breeders. The BC is certainly one of those.
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firm.turf:
5:38 pm | Does Hawk Wing have seconditis or was he beaten by superior horses? Or, both?
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Alan Shuback:
5:39 pm | Hawk Wing has always been considered by O'Brien to be the most talented horse in his stable...
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Alan Shuback:
5:39 pm | However, he has failed to live up to what his trainer sees as his vast potential....
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Alan Shuback:
5:40 pm | When beaten by Rock of Gibraltar, High Chaparral and even Grandera, he was beaten by very good horses indeed. When beaten last time by Where Or When, he was given too much to do, but has still not answered the question as to whether he has the desire to win at the top level.
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Alan Shuback:
5:41 pm | Maybe a switch to dirt for the CLassic might be a cure for his woes.
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powchie:
5:41 pm | Is Golan seeking to win the Breeders Cup or the Japan Cup?
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Alan Shuback:
5:43 pm | On the face of it, given his 8-week layoff since the Juddmonte Int'l, it would appear that he is using the turf as a prep for the Japan Cup, in much the same way in hindsight that High Chaparral can use the Arc as a prep for victory in the Turf....]
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Alan Shuback:
5:44 pm | The Japan Cup has been Golan's ultimate goal since late July. All of this is one of the reasons that I prefer High Chaparral in the Turf.
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susanscooter:
5:44 pm | What do you think of Landseer?
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Alan Shuback:
5:46 pm | Landseer, like Ballingarry, has always been one of O'Brien's 2nd stringers. He was routed to the French 2000 Guineas while Rock of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing ran in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, and (Rock) ran in the Irish....
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Alan Shuback:
5:46 pm | O'Brien tried to retool Landseer into a sprinter, but that didn't quite work out....
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Alan Shuback:
5:47 pm | Still, Landseer was good enough to beat Touch of the Blues and Beat Hollow in the Keeneland Mile....
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Alan Shuback:
5:47 pm | That gives you some idea of just how good Rock of Gibraltar is, as the Rock is at least 4 or 5 lengths better than Landseer.
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Alan Shuback:
5:48 pm | If the Rock defects to the Classic, Landseer stands a very good chance of winning the Mile if he gets good to firm ground.
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Nodouble:
5:48 pm | Is Hold That Tiger`s final time of 1:20-2/5 particularly significant? It seems very fast for a Euro clocking.
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Alan Shuback:
5:49 pm | The 7f course at Longchamp is in fact probably 40 yds short of 7f. Moreover, the first 2f are slightly downhill...
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Alan Shuback:
5:49 pm | This is what accounts for the very fast times on that course, the track record for which is 1:17.90....
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Alan Shuback:
5:50 pm | However, the Longchamp clocker caught the final furlong of the Grand Criterium in 12.50 seconds....
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Alan Shuback:
5:51 pm | As Hold That Tiger was about 7 lengths behind at the eighth pole, we can calculate that he got the final furlong himself in something like 11.25 seconds.
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Matt:
5:51 pm | A direct question. Will Hold That Tiger win the Juvenile?
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Alan Shuback:
5:52 pm | Hold That Tiger can win the Juvenile. He has a dirt pedigree, being by Storm Cat and is a half-brother to Belmont Stakes winner and SuperDerby winner Editor's Note....
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Alan Shuback:
5:53 pm | But, in order for him to win on Saturday he will have lay much closer to the pace than he did in the Grand Criterium.
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jock_talk:
5:53 pm | what do you think of Turtle Bow`s chances? she ran some nice races against bright sky who won impressively on Arc day
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Alan Shuback:
5:54 pm | That is a good point about being close up with Bright Sky. Turtle Bow is admirably consistent and she would have a very good chance of victory in the F&M Turf if the ground is soft....
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Alan Shuback:
5:54 pm | Witness her fast closing 2nd to Kazzia in the Flower Bowl....
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Alan Shuback:
5:55 pm | If the ground were to be good to firm, I think that Turtle Bow would still stand a good chance to finish in the top 4.
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MKinane:
5:55 pm | In your opinion which Euro has the best chance of winning any of the races? In other words: who is your "Euro-lock"
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Alan Shuback:
5:57 pm | As I said earlier, my favorite value play is Islington in the F&M Turf. If Rock of Gibraltar goes in the Mile, he would be my lock but only if he gets a clean trip, something you can never be sure of in the Mile....
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Alan Shuback:
5:57 pm | Therefore, the best bet among the Europeans would be High Chaparral....
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Alan Shuback:
5:58 pm | He seems to have a conditioning edge on Golan. Of the others, the only real danger would appear to be Denon.
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raven:
6:00 pm | Could Zenda possibly compete with the big names in the Filly and Mare Turf?
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Alan Shuback:
6:00 pm | Zenda is the opposite side of the coin to Gossamer....
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Alan Shuback:
6:01 pm | Both have been pre-entered in both the Mile and the F&M Turf, but while Gossamer must have it soft to stand any chance of victory...
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Alan Shuback:
6:01 pm | Zenda must have it firm.
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Alan Shuback:
6:02 pm | I think the distance of the F&M Turf stands in Zenda's way as much as the competition....
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Alan Shuback:
6:02 pm | She might stand a slightly better chance in the Mile if Rock of Gibraltar were out of the way and she was able to get the necessary clean trip...
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Alan Shuback:
6:03 pm | as she is probably better at a mile than at 10f.
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Alan Shuback:
6:03 pm | Thank you all for coming - good luck on Saturday!
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DRF_ADMIN:
6:03 pm | The Breeders' Cup advance is on sale now online, click the link to the right to purchase online.
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DRF_ADMIN:
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DRF_ADMIN:
6:04 pm | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup!
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DRF_ADMIN:
6:05 pm | We'll have a transcript up later tonight.
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6:07 pm | Go into the BC WTC Chat Room for a real-time chat with Brian Pochman, Dan Illman and Paul Malecki. Starting at 6:30 pm.
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