| Breeders' Cup Chat with Steve Davidowitz 10/24/2002 7:01 pm - 8:08 pm |
Steve Davidowitz:
7:01 pm | Welcome everyone.
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fish:
7:01 pm | I keep reading that Xtra Heat either hasn`t beat males or hasn`t beat the top male sprinters. But it seems to me that she beat all the top male sprinters last year except one in the top sprint of the year. Why are her chances continually downgraded?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:02 pm | I don't think she is being downgraded at all. I think everyone respects her talent
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Favorite Trick:
7:02 pm | What do you think about Islington? I`ve been reading that she`s not looking too good on the track over the last 2 mornings - think she`s going to be another Petrushka?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:03 pm | Hard to evaluate how much the Arc took out of her. It's one of those guessing games the Foreign horses give us. I personally am going to try to beat her unless she goes off at fair price
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:04 pm | please forgive my spelling, am working on small laptop with two cut fingers/
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Nick Mordin:
7:04 pm | 16 of the last 18 Sprint winners previously ran 11 times or less. Only Crafty CT, Carson Hollow, Touch Tone and Thunderello are that lightly raced. Which do you fancy most?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:05 pm | Don't believe the stat has any real merit. but of the ones you cite, I like Crafty C.T., the most
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:05 pm | he was a thin horse with no recovery capability until Zucker got some weight on him for his last race. He's one of the longshots to fear
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RandyI:
7:05 pm | Steve, what`s your feeling on Listen Indy in the Juvenile. Wants distance and galloped past the 1-2 finishers out West with ease?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:06 pm | Think he's a terrific
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:06 pm | Think he's a terrific Derby prospect. . .,
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:06 pm | believe he has a chance to upset, but I believe there are others more advanced right now
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aristides:
7:07 pm | Will Mandy`s Gold`s lack of two turn experience hurt her in the Distaff?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:07 pm | I believe it will. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:07 pm | She was a one turn sprinter for the longest time. needs the race to fall apart to win
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priz:
7:07 pm | Is the Rock a Lock?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:08 pm | not in my book. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:08 pm | there is some question whether he may have had too hard a campaign and. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:08 pm | I love the way Beat Hollow and Good Journey are coming up to the race
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paj:
7:08 pm | In the 8/25 issue of Simulcast Weekly, you made a strong case for Came Home to buck his apparent dist. limitations to win the Pacific Classic-Can he do it again in the BC?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:09 pm | I have no doubt that Came Home can run a judicious 1-1/4 miles, but this race is going to be a lot tougher. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:10 pm | There is going to be as healthier War Emblem and Medaglia d'Oro to deal with on the pace and several others who need to be handled. the pacific classic was a weaker race
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Stivman:
7:10 pm | Steve, please offer your opinion of Ballingary in the turf. Is this horse an inflated fig pretender or should we be concerned about him?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:10 pm | Hard to make a good case for him under new management against better Europeans
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Vgallop:
7:10 pm | Can anyone beat Storm Flag Flying other than herself?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:11 pm | She's good, but I like BOTH Bafferts, the one she beast in NY and Composure. She's a nervous
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:11 pm | horse who has great talent, but this is a much deeper group than many realize.
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isitingood:
7:11 pm | Last year there was an enormous amount of talk about the how the closers would run down the speed in the sprint, but it didn`t happen. Do you think that this year the speed will once again hold on or will the pace set up for a late run?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:12 pm | Good question. . .Last year's Sprint was won by a speed horse that took slightly off the pace--Squirtle Squirt. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:13 pm | This year's winner could, should be one of the horses with tractable speed and a good finish. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:13 pm | I don't rule out Swept Overboard, if he really is 100 percent and he has looked good lately in training gallops, but Kona Gold could be in the best spot along with one or two surprises
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REBRIDGE:
7:14 pm | Would you consider the Whitney a key race for Macho Uno, that was a tough field, 20-1 ml, could he pull off another upset as 2 years ago
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:14 pm | I don't like Macho Uno's overall training pattern or racing history. if he wins, god bless him, but I doubt I'll use him for anything other than fourth on a superfecta play
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Mongo:
7:14 pm | If With Anticipation is able to relax, will he be able to withstand the Europeans?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:15 pm | He's developed beautifully and seems to b e galloping well. guess he should run well, can win n . . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:16 pm | I bet him to win in the JC Gold Cup but believe he is only one of a few legit win threats in a wide open race.
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TOOCOOL505:
7:16 pm | Any thoughts on Milwaukee Brew, for a nice longshot play???
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:16 pm | If you like third or fourth.
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jojo:
7:16 pm | Distaff- Do you think Imperial Gesture stays around two turns ?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:17 pm | I believe she'll handle two turns just fine, I am not sure she will handle AZERI or TAKE CHARGE LADY or even FARDA AMIGA
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barshoes:
7:17 pm | Steve, are you aware of any track bias at Arlington? It sounds like the track plays pretty fair under most conditions.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:18 pm | The track does play fair . I would not expect any kind of severe bias
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Rick_Belanski:
7:18 pm | I love the way Disturbingthepeace has been managed this year -- six straight wins vs. progressively tougher company seems hard to ignore, then a nice two month freshener. Any shot in first G1 try?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:18 pm | I thought he beat up on depleted fields in so cal this summer and now he meets the varsity
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IongshotIover:
7:18 pm | Steve I love longshots, please give me your opinion on Van Mistelrooy.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:19 pm | He's the third stringer for now in O'Brien
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:19 pm | barn but he has a big future. I personally like Tomahawk out of that trio, he's bred more for the dirt
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priz:
7:19 pm | How about Hawk Wing in the Classic.....after years of Euros knocking....does he bust the door down?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:20 pm | he has to have a chance on class alone, given his good performances against top notchers. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:20 pm | but, as I said earlier, the Classic is wide, wide open
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NBENOIT1:
7:20 pm | Forbidden Apple has not won this year, but he is always very close. Does he have a chance in BC Mile? He could complete a healthy trifecta or exacta, no?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:21 pm | He is a very game horse as you say and he always seems to be in the thick of it, especially in important races.. .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:21 pm | it would not surprise me if he hit the board, or even figured in the exacta, but this is a tough, tough group.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:22 pm | please forgive again the spelling. I am writing fast on a small laptop with two cut fingers
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susanscooter:
7:22 pm | do you have an opinion about sea jewel in the juvenile fillies?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:22 pm | won't win.
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moreorles:
7:22 pm | Betting Thoroughbreds is a fantastic book. I refer to it often... What will your pick 6 ticket look like?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:23 pm | Can't spell it out here. . .Right now, I have no singles and plan to wager close to $3,000
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barshoes:
7:23 pm | Any thoughts on Summer Colony in the Distaff? I think he has a chance at a good price
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:24 pm | I would have liked to have seen a more aggressive training drill to convince me that she really is going to step up big time with the switch back to two turns. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:25 pm | Azeri is , I believe faster than she has shown to date. Take Charge Lady is in perfect position to deliver a serious race too
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Deo:
7:25 pm | what are the chances of E Dubai in the Classic
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:25 pm | I make him about 40-1
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thecollet:
7:25 pm | Is Orientate just another east coast sprinter not fast enough for the west coast?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:26 pm | He is faster than nest of the west coast sprinters I saw in action this year. his big question is his true fitness. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:26 pm | and there is so much speed in the field, even though he withstood the Squirtle Squirt first 1/4 in the forego, it knocked him out for a month
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joey:
7:26 pm | why did ward ease off on Sky Mesa .This seems to me to be an error in training a good horse.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:27 pm | He did the same with MONARCHOS in the Wood Memorial, which everyone knocked as they knocked the light training pattern going into the Derby. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:28 pm | I believe he knows this large bodied horse who looks like a mature 4 yr old is a derby horse, I believe all his decisions. .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:28 pm | are predicated on getting him into his 3 year old season, not necessarily to the winner's circle of the BC Juvenile, although he is a live contender
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darreneblue:
7:28 pm | Does Evening Attire`s Jockey Gold Cup win at Belmont bode well for the BC?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:29 pm | I think it was a target race all by itself and the only thing not keeping me from throwing him out and including him amongst serious contenders is that he seems to be in such good health with such good spirits with a favorable pace scenario
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Philly Gambler:
7:29 pm | What do you think of a guy whose wife makes him go to a wedding and won`t let him bet the Breeders Cup? Divorce her or SHOOT HER?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:30 pm | I'd opt for divorce, don't know what the penalty for murder is in Pennsylvania
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MONARCHO1:
7:30 pm | I`ve been reading that Swept Overboard and DTP haven`t been handling the track do you think they`ll be o.k. B.C. day?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:31 pm | Didn't see anything wrong with Swept Overboard's gallop. Disturbingthepeace is OK, but I do not believe he is fast enough to win this race
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lotto:
7:31 pm | Steve, what is your take on Golden Apples. Since the jock switch to P Val she has been much more consistent. If P Val puts her in a position to make the first jump on the front-runners, do you think anyone can catch her? I don`t.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:31 pm | She is a very serious contender in any distance race on the grass.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:32 pm | Pat Val is moving up horses at all distances on all surfaces. he is in the zone, and doing well with his personal issues.
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malika:
7:32 pm | I`m really intrigued by Toccet. Does post 14 kill his chances
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:32 pm | Kill, no, hurt, I believe he was badly hurt by the draw.
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CHRISMC5:
7:32 pm | suppose I don`t have $3000 for the pick six-any advice on a $24 tri and $24 super?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:33 pm | Bet to win and place
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MONARCHO1:
7:33 pm | Does Volponi have a chance a big price?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:33 pm | Not with my money or the previous questioner' $24 either
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markh:
7:33 pm | Vindication looked visually impressive in his last, but the Beyer fig is low - what do you think of his chances?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:34 pm | Another Derby prospect. . .Baffert has sure trained him hard for this though, not sure if he's mature enough, but he does have talent, the figs are only part of the story
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milkman:
7:34 pm | I like wando`s closing style..is he the real thing?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:35 pm | The post my not have hurt him so much (#13) as a closer, but an inside draw would have saved him some ground before his late launching move. if you like a horse, no matter what anyone says, you should go to the windows.
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Railbird:
7:35 pm | Steve, any crushing victories or terrible defeats you`ve suffered in past Breeders Cups that help how you attack this year`s program?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:36 pm | I left Brocco off my Pick Seven Ticket and had 133-1 shot Arcanges and would have had THE WHOLE THING. thanks for bringing it up:)
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Rama:
7:36 pm | hi, what do you think about thunderello and carson hallow in the sprint?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:37 pm | Will go 44 or so and be looking for an oxygen mask somewhere inside the final 3/16
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Crown Wood:
7:37 pm | I heard that the owners of Kalookan Queen are forcing Headley to run her in the sprint against his wishes, what is you opinion of her?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:37 pm | Force? Not force. . .Just twisted his arm a little. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:38 pm | Frankly I think she is a very good filly who will get in the mix, but like all the other speed types, it is the one who can take back a little and still fire who will be the one to fear.
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junket:
7:38 pm | What is your take on the euro bounce?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:38 pm | It is not automatic. some trainers have worked around it, some never have figured it out.
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shoaly:
7:39 pm | I read today that Golan had some real problems with working on the Arlington Turf Course. What have you heard? Might this seriously impair his chances?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:40 pm | Conflicting views about Golan. Not sure what to make of it or whom to trust. my suggestion is use him in multi race bets and perhaps decide between him and High Chaparral for the win play
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eprado:
7:40 pm | is "buffy" a centerfold or strictly back page?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:41 pm | She's in pretty deep here and I think an in the money finish would be a major score
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priz:
7:41 pm | No one is talking about Bonapaw in the sprint....he is at home, he has been training well....and the price will be right....
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:42 pm | He is a serious candidate to lay right behind the pace and be that horse I've been talking about. he's worked fast, albeit sparingly by design. . .in the manner of a quarterhorse trainer and he has a number of very fast races in his resume, I'm using him
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dash42:
7:42 pm | is Kona Gold over the hill -or- aging like a fine wine??
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:43 pm | I believe he is sitting on a very very good effort and is a dangerous win threat in a field designed to help any really classy horse with tactical speed
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NickyB:
7:43 pm | Perfect Drift seems to have been handled poorly this year. do you agree?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:44 pm | I think Johnson's hand was forced by injury but if he really wanted to prepare for the winter he would not be in this race. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:44 pm | he was a talented Derby /Belmont prospect before he got hurt. he's recovered quite a lot pretty fast, but this is very tough spot for next step
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homerj:
7:44 pm | will you bet any head2head?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:45 pm | I might, but I'll probably wait till Sunday when I'll take the Jets - 3 against Cleve.
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A EC E:
7:45 pm | What do you think of Take Charge Lady in the Distaff?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:46 pm | She is classy, should get a great trip and is the one Azeri has to beat.
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Brian:
7:46 pm | What`s your opinion on Harlan`s Holiday?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:47 pm | Improving, with good stronger looking body, eligible to make an impact in this race at a fancy price, but a win would be a bit much so soon.
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repent:
7:47 pm | What are Falcon Flight`s chances?? He`s run his best races over thus turf and has been around know a few years!! Pat V. up, isn`t he a supplement also??
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:48 pm | I am not a big fan of Falcon Flight, who WOULD NOT HAVE BEATEN Beat Hollow despite his traffic problems in the Ark. Million. ..
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:48 pm | Believe he is going to run well enough, might crack the trifectas, but against the field is very, very strong. good luck to you though and as I say Pat Val is in the zone
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EJBABIN3:
7:49 pm | Can any US horses "Steal" the mile or turf on the front end? This seems like the only way to beat them. If, Who has the best chance of the US horses?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:50 pm | You probably came in late, but I like Beat Hollow and Good Journey in the Mile quite a bit to upset Rock of Gibraltar and I also like Golden Apples to give a good showing in the F and M Turf and there are other contenders for in the money slots on the grass with US profiles,. . .
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:50 pm | I don't think wire to wire is the answer, though.
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woody:
7:51 pm | Any opinion on Landseer in the Mile? Seems overlooked. I like his outside position on the turf.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:51 pm | Liked him to win the shadwell and believe he is a good horse with a chance, but the post hurts him and Beat Hollow will be tougher this time around and of course there is THE ROCK too
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ONEATATIM1:
7:51 pm | Steve, with Ivanavinalot scratching out of the juv fil do you think santa catarina will be able to run a pace that will challenge storm flag flying.
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:53 pm | Humorous Lady is going to be wingining on the lead. Santa Catarina is going to improve off her loss to Storm Flag. She is a win threat along with Composure.
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psix:
7:53 pm | In your opinion which are the toughest pick six races where you need to go deep?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:54 pm | The Classic for sure.
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IongshotIover:
7:54 pm | I like Medaglia d`Oro in the Classic, do you Steve?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:55 pm | I think he is well prepared for a very hard race which he will get and in fact, Frankel has done a better job preparing all of his BC horses this year. He learned a lot from Aptitide last year. This is one of the hardest races for me to have a firm conviction
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VETBOY22:
7:55 pm | Steve, they are all doubting Farda Amigas ability to be in this class of race, but I feel she can very easily beat this field. She already has beaten Take Charge Lady once and has proven she can win off a layoff
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:56 pm | I don't doubt her ability or the ability of her trainer, but this is not the Alabama when Take Charge Lady was not the same Take charge Lady we see now and there was no Azeri, a 4 yr old in the field. She should run well and could win, but might be best used in exactas and trfiectas, I think
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THEMOGE1:
7:57 pm | it looks like most of the invaders will be 1st lasix do you think that makes them even more superior
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:57 pm | Whenever a European gets first Lasix I sit up and take notice. I've seen a lot of bomb winners and juicy priced second place finishers with first L from Europe.
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vanguard:
7:57 pm | does the 1 1/8 mile distance for juvies this year offer a special opportunity for those players with a good knowledge of breeding?
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Steve Davidowitz:
7:58 pm | Yes. . .But we have no real idea how many of these horses are going to mature next spring rather than be fit enough to win 1-1/8 in late Oct of their 2 year old season.
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Ray:
7:59 pm | Banks Hill was very impressive last year. Do you think the move to Frankel will help or hurt her chances?
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:00 pm | I think she has made too many moves in recent weeks, as in to NY, scratch because of wet conditions, to So Cal and a moderate race compromised by traffic, to Chicago. Don't have the same confidence in her as I had last year when she was a generous 5-1 to win. Think she is vulnerable le.
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CHRISMC5:
8:00 pm | Steve, I like attire/medalia/came home in the classic-please tell me war emblem will not hit the board, is finished and ready 4 sushi
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:01 pm | How am I going to answer that other than to repeat what you want me to say. just go bet your selections and laugh all the way to the bank
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GLENNZASTROW:
8:01 pm | Steve...you mentioned Tomahawk, what about the short rest (ran 10/19)?
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:02 pm | It's a question, but if O'Brien believes the horse is sharp and ready, I have to trust that. I am not picking Tomy to win but I prefer him of the three O'Brien's because he is better bred for the dirt
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JimW:
8:02 pm | I like affluent Saturday, Can we light the board at a price?
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:03 pm | Bad news. Affluent is not running in the BC this year. best of luck to you.
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ceejay:
8:03 pm | What's your take on Grade 1`s run at WO ?
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:04 pm | They are closer to Grade-2's in NY and So Cal, sometimes Grade-3. although the Atto Mile is a legit G-1
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eaflorida:
8:04 pm | What do you think about whywhywhy
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:04 pm | I love him as a serious win threat. he's been training superbly.
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redowl:
8:05 pm | Do you like dollar bill I think he will win
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:07 pm | To some, Dollar bill is counterfeit. To me, I think he is the most reliable excuse horse in the game. . .but think his connections care. they've got a lot of good PR and about $1 million or so in second, third and fourth place checks to go along with his La Derby win last year. Seems in fine fettle, another third, and another 4th?
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Steve Davidowitz:
8:07 pm | Thanks very much for all the good questions, best of luck and good handicapping to everyone.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:07 pm | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup!
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:07 pm | The 2002 American Racing Manual - Thoroughbred racing's most complete statistical resource. Available from DRF Press - Click the link for DRF Bookstore in the upper left.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:07 pm | Pick up this week's DRF Simulcast Weekly, featuring Breeders' Cup articles from six of the Bet with the Best authors.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:07 pm | Be sure to check out Finished Lines (you didn't miss the giant ad to your right, did you?) - It's a collection of memorable writing on Thoroughbred racing that casual fans and hardcore bettors should all enjoy.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:08 pm | The Arlington Park Breeders' Cup day past performances are on sale now online, click on "Buy PPs & More" link in the upper left. Only $2.50 for the card!
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:08 pm | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup!
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:08 pm | In the words of Stanley Bergstein, good night all.
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