Breeders' Cup Chat with Steven Crist 10/21/2002 6:55 pm - 8:03 pm
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DIBBSNDUBBS:
7:02 pm | Steve...is Sky Mesa the real deal? were you at all impressed by his last race? he seemed to be all out
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Steven Crist:
7:02 pm | First of all, good evening and thanks to all for coming.
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Steven Crist:
7:03 pm | As for Sky Mesa.....
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Steven Crist:
7:03 pm | His last race really left me cold. Beat nothing and came home slowly under a drive....
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Steven Crist:
7:03 pm | He's talente but not unbeatable. I think he's a vulberable favorite.
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trezza:
7:03 pm | Do you think Rock of Gibraltar will go in the Classic?
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Steven Crist:
7:03 pm | I hope he does....
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Steven Crist:
7:03 pm | And I think he will because....
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Steven Crist:
7:04 pm | that's the only way to increase his value significantly....
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Steven Crist:
7:04 pm | If he wins another grass mile. so what? But if he can go 10f on the dirt, it triples his value as a stallion....
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Steven Crist:
7:04 pm | And maybe he's Horse of the Year.
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jim66:
7:04 pm | I think Came Home and Medaglia d`Oro are vulnerable as favorites. Skimming proved that 1 1/4 miles at Delmar is not 1 1/4 miles elsewhere and Medaglia beat 1 quality horse in the 2 Saratoga races. Do you agree?
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Steven Crist:
7:04 pm | I agree that they're vulnerable....
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Steven Crist:
7:05 pm | I don't believe in my heart that Came Home is as good at 10f as he is at 8 or 9.....
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Steven Crist:
7:05 pm | Del Mar can be forgiving and that race kind oif fell into his lap....
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Steven Crist:
7:05 pm | Medaglia has a lot of ability but I can't defend those two fields he beat at Saratoga. They were weak.
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Coach.:
7:05 pm | When Reraise won the Sprint in 1998 at CD, I believe he was the "speed of the speed", and put away the other speed. Do you feel that one horse is the "speed" in this year`s BC Sprint.
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Steven Crist:
7:06 pm | I don't think there's a dominant speed in the race.....
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Steven Crist:
7:06 pm | I would expect a contested pace and an off-the-pace winner....of course, that's what I thought last year and the speeds ran 1-2-3.
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mightynick:
7:07 pm | In the Distaff, Imperial Gesture looks like the pacesetter. Can she hang on?
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Steven Crist:
7:07 pm | I'm going against Imperial Gesture because she hasn't shown she can do it around two turns....
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Steven Crist:
7:08 pm | Some horses really like the one-turn Belmont routes and she looks like that kind of horse to me. And it's not as if Azeri's going to let her lope to the lead.
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javagold:
7:08 pm | steve am i crazy or does WAR EMBLEM look like an easy winner at a nice price
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Steven Crist:
7:08 pm | Well....no opinion in the Classic is crazy (unless it involves Dollar Bill winning)....
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Steven Crist:
7:09 pm | But if War Emblem clears E Dubai and sets a soft pace, why not? It really depends on price....do you like him at 3-1, 6-1 or 8-1?
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Crown.Wood:
7:09 pm | I am a big P4 player and would like to ask what your approach will be in Saturday`s Pick 4?
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Steven Crist:
7:10 pm | My key in the Pick Four will be trying to beat Sky Mesa. He can win but I don't want him at a short price. And I really think the Turf can be narrowed to Goland and High Chapparal so I'm not spreading out there.
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Nick.Mordin:
7:11 pm | Seventeen three year olds have tried to win the BC Turf after running in the Arc. They all lost. Do you think High Chaparral can buck this trend?
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Steven Crist:
7:11 pm | That's an interesting stat....
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Steven Crist:
7:12 pm | But I think this year's American routers are SUCH a weak bunch that HC could win by default I just think he and Golan tower over the Americans.
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seahero:
7:12 pm | Thank God no opinion in the Classic is crazy, because I see another forward move from Perfect Drift putting him in the hunt...
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Steven Crist:
7:13 pm | I need to see more from Perfect Drift -- and his handling -- to trust him. His Belmont was horrendous and he hasn't come back and beaten a good horse. Has he ever beaten a good horse?
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root.boy:
7:13 pm | Steve, does Mandy`s Gold have shot in the Distaff. I thought she was a pure sprinter but her Beldame was better than Summer Colony`s.
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Steven Crist:
7:14 pm | Mandy's Gold may be another one of those I-like-extended-sprints-at-Belmont kind of fillies.....I don;t trust her at all around two turns.
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HARP:
7:14 pm | If Rock of Gilbraltar runs in the Classic, who do you like in the Mile?
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Steven Crist:
7:15 pm | The Mile is a *lot* more open if he skips it. The Euros still have the edge but there are several Americans who could sneak in at a big price. I think Forbidden Apple shouldn't be overlooked. Horrendous ride last time out.
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squeakilee:
7:15 pm | take charge lady just ran a 109 beyer in the spinster, a number she ran back in feb. and apr. as a 3yo, do you think she could now move forward to about a 114-115; good enough to win the distaff?
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Steven Crist:
7:16 pm | She's absolutely good enough and a 109 may well take it. Azeri's not all that fast.
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tvdbc:
7:16 pm | F/M Turf: Banks Hill has a couple of question marks on her. She `appears` as good as last year, and she had a bad trip last time. How bad was that trip, and do you put a negative or positive spin on the shift to Frankel and likely 1st time Lasix?
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Steven Crist:
7:17 pm | She absolutely had a bad trip last time out. I won;t be surprised if she runs as wella s she did last year. All the travel is a little worrisome but these people seem to know what they're doing.
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fastfilly:
7:17 pm | Wando? didn`t beat much, beyers under 90, but last qtr kick in GreyBC, was faster than others, any shot for the Canadian?
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Steven Crist:
7:18 pm | These horses never seem to be good enough. And I'd be careful about that last-quarter stuff. He was close to a super-soft pace.
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apremont75:
7:18 pm | does listen indy`s pp look like a mirror image of anees, and he seems to be improving every start. you give him any chance in the juvenile?
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Steven Crist:
7:19 pm | Good analogy. He's absolutely eligible to move forward and Mandella doesn't run for trhe free lunch. He'll be on my tickets.
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Saarland.Fan:
7:19 pm | Steve, do you think Ballingarry has a shot in the Turf. I think he does based on an easier race than the Arc and he ran a good Beyer despite the slow pace
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Steven Crist:
7:20 pm | I'm suspicious of 111's earned in Canada. He didn't beat much in that race but his performance showed just how much better these Euros are in these races.
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IlikeSARATOGA:
7:20 pm | Why are the "experts" claiming Swept Overboard has no chance?
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Steven Crist:
7:20 pm | Well I must not be an expert because I love him....
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Steven Crist:
7:21 pm | His race before the Met Mile was as dull as his comeback and look what he did there....
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Steven Crist:
7:21 pm | I think he's the best horse in the race and I only wish I could get the 11-1 I did in the Met! I do confess to having a soft spot for this horse.
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seahero:
7:22 pm | Why do you hate Canada so much? It`s OK with me...I`m just curious
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Steven Crist:
7:23 pm | I don't hate Canada! Honest! I've just seen too many big figs at Woodbine translate more like Canadian currency.
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ADAMZF:
7:23 pm | Who will you likely single in the Pick Six?
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Steven Crist:
7:23 pm | Well, I'll be making out over 30 tickets and different tickets single different horses.....
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Steven Crist:
7:24 pm | But the one I'll stand alone with on the most tickets is probably Storm Flag Flying. She may just be a ton better than her field.
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DRBILLYM:
7:24 pm | What per cent of one`s moderate bunch should be spent on the pick six? Or is it better to play 2 pic 3`s instead?
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Steven Crist:
7:25 pm | If your bunch is moderate, you should probably skip the pick six altogether or make a token just-in-case-I'm brilliant ticket for a few bucks.....
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Steven Crist:
7:25 pm | I don;t care how smart you are, $36 does not make you competitive with people putting in $500 and more. Save your money for individual races....don't tie it up.
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RandyI:
7:26 pm | Is Xtra Heat the underlay of the year, after Saarland in the Derby? She`s tailed off and she`ll be bet off last year?
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Steven Crist:
7:27 pm | I hate to knock Xtra Heat because she's such a cool and talented filly...
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Steven Crist:
7:27 pm | But beating Day Trader after he gives up the rail in a five-horse field is not the same as beating 13 males in the Sprint. She'll be prominent in midstretch but I think a few will catch her late.
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fastfilly:
7:28 pm | fyi....storm flag flying is not in P6
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Steven Crist:
7:28 pm | You are correct sir. Juvenile Fillies is NOT part of the Pick Six. Obviously, I'm waiting a few days to zero in on my tickets.
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kasept:
7:29 pm | Jimmy Toner wouldn`t bring Blazing Fury westward if he didn`t think he had a chance to run as well as last year, no? Does he hit the board?
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Steven Crist:
7:29 pm | He's in the hunt for third. I've been a fan of his but he couldn't get up against the Americans so how does he beat Golan and High chapparal?
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collet:
7:30 pm | I like the fact the juvenile is 1 1/8, like the Derby no horse has gone that far, whats your thought?
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Steven Crist:
7:30 pm | I'd prefer that the races be one-turn miles at a track that can't accomodate 1 1/16. Two turns and nine furlongs in October seems to me to be pushing things a bit.
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SOUTHRIVE2:
7:31 pm | What kind of odds will head2head provide? It seems like a good bet for beginners.
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Steven Crist:
7:31 pm | They're proposition bets but they're parimutuel. If both sides are bet evenly, they'll pay $3.60 but the range could be anywhere from $2.80 to $6.00. You can click on my BC Diary for today for more on the Head2Heads.
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RandyI:
7:32 pm | I think both E Dubai and Volponi can make noise in the Classic? Everyone points to E Dubai not wanting the distance, yet his two best Beyers were at 1.25 Miles!!!?
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Steven Crist:
7:33 pm | They also were in races where he either got loose against good horses or was close to a soft pace against bad ones. How can he possibly put awat WE and Medaglia and still win? He's my first throwout.
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Brewer:
7:35 pm | Any thoughts about Harlans Holiday in the Classic
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Steven Crist:
7:35 pm | HH would really have to improve. He was a slow and vulnerable early 3-year-old and I see no great improvement since he's come back.
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Judge.T.C.:
7:35 pm | Kona Gold has been such a solid competitor, throughout the years, but has Bruce Headley gone too far by asking him to run against this type of competion at he age he is now?
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Steven Crist:
7:36 pm | You hate to count out a champion and it's not beyond the realm of possibility but three of his last four races have been his worst and I'd demand a square price to gamble on his rising from the dead.
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collet:
7:36 pm | Vindication looked like Arazi winning at TP, a repeat saturday???
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Steven Crist:
7:37 pm | He wasn't exactly beating a BC-quality field at Turfway but I can't throw him out. I think the whole world saw his move and he'll probably be an underlay.
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boxfordv8:
7:37 pm | steve,will EVENING ATTIRE be a over lay because of bridgmohan?
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Steven Crist:
7:38 pm | I think EA will be an overlay, due to Bridgmohan, Pat Kelly and the anti-JC Gold Cup feelings of many. He'll be a square price and he absolutely can win. And there's nothing wrong with Bridgmohan.
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richn:
7:38 pm | i notice boston harbour has had some success with horses on the turf from a limited number of starters. could boston common surpise, being he looks to be the speed in the mile.
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Steven Crist:
7:39 pm | He's a very fast horse but this is some spot to try out the grass. He also appears unrateable. I'll let him beat me.
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seahero:
7:40 pm | Which is the bigger sucker bet in the Classic...Macho Uno, or Dollar Bill? Does Dollar Bill clunk up for the Super?
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Steven Crist:
7:40 pm | Dollar Bill's a bigger sucker bet. Macho could win on his best day. Dollar Bill would run a troubled third or fourth whetrher it's the 10th at Arlington or the 10th at Turf Paradie.
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collet:
7:41 pm | Do you think Aidan O`Brien would use Hawk Wing as a rabbit for Rock of Gibraltar?
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Steven Crist:
7:41 pm | I don't think the Classic needs a rabbit.Plenty of speed in the field.
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Brewer:
7:42 pm | Is a pick six ticket of $200 too little to hit it this year?
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Steven Crist:
7:42 pm | It is if you go 2x2x2x2x2x3....
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Steven Crist:
7:43 pm | That's a waste of $192. But if you really like three horses, go ahead and go 1x1x1x4x5x5 for $200 if your bankroll can afford a pure shot.
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BOBL:
7:44 pm | DID YOU LOOK AT MY COUSIN MATT? DIRT RACES FAST.
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Steven Crist:
7:44 pm | My Cousin Matt gets the "Rick's Natural star Award" for horse who clearly least deserved to be entered. I don;t know what they were thinking. Fortunately for the horse, he won't get in.
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RandyI:
7:45 pm | Nothing said about Farda Amiga, I was shocked with her Alabama even though it was slow. Can she do it again???
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Steven Crist:
7:45 pm | She's a little on the slow side but she'll be finishing well and clearly her handlers know how to get her ready off a layoff.
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chrystal:
7:46 pm | Which wager offers the best value in the Cup races...exacta or trifecta?
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Steven Crist:
7:47 pm | I think the trifectas are especially attractive because of the full fields. A lot of small players can't afford to hit the "all" button for third the way they would in a 7- or 8-horse field, and a bomb in third and a favorite off the board can create a nice overlay.
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fire2ice:
7:48 pm | Riskaverse ran a strong race.....but Breeder`s Cup material?
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Steven Crist:
7:48 pm | No. Life and death against 3-year-old fillies. No match for the likes of Banks Hill, Golden Apples and Islington.
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Saarland.Fan:
7:49 pm | Do you think Ivanavinalot can make some noise in the exotics at a price??
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Steven Crist:
7:49 pm | I don't know that she'll be that much of a price. All those big wins.....vs. absolutely nothing at Calder.
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Luccman:
7:49 pm | ORIENTATE IN THE SPRINT - EASY STEVE -Take it to the bank kids..remember it came from Canada
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Steven Crist:
7:50 pm | A daring selection of an obvious favorite! Orientate is very solid. He can probably lay just off the speed and get a good trip. He and Swept Overboard are my two in the Sprint.
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richn:
7:50 pm | Summer Colony, over the top?
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Steven Crist:
7:51 pm | I giver her another chance. Her people insist that she hates one turn at Belmont as much as Imperial gesture loves it. Look at her record in two-turn races.
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seahero:
7:51 pm | I think Pat Day`s not the same rider he was 10 yrs ago. Agree? Any jockeys you prefer?
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Steven Crist:
7:52 pm | I'd be happy if he's not the same jockey he was when he was getting Easy Goer, Turkoman and Java Gold beaten.
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mahod:
7:52 pm | How do you use timeform figures in your handicapping?
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Steven Crist:
7:53 pm | The Beyer rule-of-thumb that Timeform minus 12-to-14 equals a Beyer fig is pretty handy.
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Taxman:
7:53 pm | Does Aldebaran have a shot to run them all down in Mile?
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Steven Crist:
7:54 pm | He's interesting but I think he'll be underlaid because of Frankel. His grass win last fall was really good though.
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photofinish:
7:55 pm | How closely do you follow morning workout reports?
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Steven Crist:
7:55 pm | Probably less than most handicappers....unless the horse is doing incredibly good or bad things, I don't pay much attention.
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collet:
7:57 pm | Does Bonapaw have any chance, he`s 2 for 2 at AP with big beyers?
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Steven Crist:
7:57 pm | He likes the track but I question whether he can go head and head with a world-class field and hang on. Hasn't done it yet.
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HAWKEY2:
7:57 pm | If you ignore Milwaukee Brews last run does he have a chance in the Classic ?
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Steven Crist:
7:58 pm | He could be a sleeper. He's got the right running style and his best race is good enough. But you have to throw out his last because it was atrocious.
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chrystal:
7:58 pm | Will the cold temps of Chicago adversely affect any of the horses this year?
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Steven Crist:
7:59 pm | The forecasts I've seen are for 58 degrees. The Euros will probabbly complain that it's too hot!
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Dick:
7:59 pm | Toccet looks real. What`s your opinion
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Steven Crist:
7:59 pm | I have to see more. He kinda clunked up to beat an exhausted Icecoldbeeratreds in the Champagne. But he's allowed to improve.
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smo:
8:00 pm | I was extremely impressed with Carson Hollow in defeat to You at Saratoga. That was 7F and if she can clear the other speed will be tough in the SPrint. What you say?
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Steven Crist:
8:00 pm | I say she has no shot whatsoever. It's really surprising to me to see guys like Dutrow and Lake put in these sprinters who have no chance.
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ONIONS:
8:01 pm | I noticed in your diary that you made a horse to horse wager in the derby. Was if offshore or at Vegas that took the action?
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Steven Crist:
8:01 pm | It was a degenerate poker player of my acquaintance who will bet on anything.
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Steven Crist:
8:02 pm | On that note, thanks to all for coming. Have a great Breeders' Cup.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:02 pm | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup! Be sure to come back tomorrow evening at 5:00 pm Eastern for a Breeders' Cup Euro-chat with DRF international correspondent Alan Shuback. Look for a transcript of tonight's chat in our BC section - posted within the hour.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:02 pm | The Breeders' Cup advance is on sale now online, click the link to the right to purchase online.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:02 pm | Be sure to check out Finished Lines (you didn't miss the giant ad to your right, did you?) - It's a collection of memorable writing on Thoroughbred racing that casual fans and hardcore bettors should all enjoy.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:03 pm | In the words of Stanley Bergstein, good night all.
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