| Breeders' Cup Chat with Andy Beyer 10/17/2002 7:00 pm - 8:05 pm |
Punter:
7:02 pm | Andy, in your opinion, who is the US` best shot on the grass....or should we just run up a white flag?
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Andy Beyer:
7:03 pm | I think we can pretty much run up the white flag in the races for males; Golden Apples is obviously very strong in the F&M Turf, if we can consider her a US horse now.
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michael:
7:04 pm | which breeders cup race will you bet the most on and why?
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Andy Beyer:
7:06 pm | I've just started studying them today in depth, and obviously want to wait until we see who's in what race. (Rock of Gibbraltar's status will affect twp races enormously.) But based on my first go-around, this Breeders Cup looks very tough. There are so many foreign horses that we have to guess about; plus there are an unusually large number of horses coming off long layoffs into the Cup, a...
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Andy Beyer:
7:06 pm | and it's hard to assess their current sharpness
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Mick:
7:06 pm | Andy: Hi. Mick from Ireland here. I`m interested to hear what your opinion is on the Breeders Cup Distaff. My fancy is Farda Amiga. Who`s your pick and why?
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Andy Beyer:
7:07 pm | Well, I'm not sold on Azeri, that's for sure. And the race seems to set up for a closer like Farda Amiga. I'm looking at her, too; but I'm just not sure that her wins over 3yos prove she's good enough.
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Cantrunatall:
7:08 pm | Any thoughts on some on the favs training straight up to the Classic?
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Andy Beyer:
7:10 pm | If it's somebody like Bobby Frankel doing the training, I woudln't worry about the layoff: I'm sure Medaglia d'Oro will run well. I wish I knew if Paco Gonzalez will be able to get Came Home ready to fire his best shot at 10 furlongs after a 2 month layoff. I think Came Home, on paper, is the best of the group. I know so little about Farda Amiga's trainer that I couldn't venture a guess, bu...
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Andy Beyer:
7:10 pm | but he certainly got her ready for the Alabama.
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prizboy:
7:10 pm | Even though Sky Mesa will go favored.....isn`t he the most vulnerable favorite all day?
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Andy Beyer:
7:11 pm | He's certainly vulnerable, since his last winning figure wasn't exactly a blockbuster. Based on their numbers and overall form, I think Whywhywhy looks just as good as Sky Mesa. And as for all the Europeans trying dirt for the first time... your guess is as good as mine.
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BENSELL1:
7:11 pm | Do you think Evening Attire has a chance in the Classic? Are there any longshots that stand out on the card?
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Andy Beyer:
7:12 pm | I thought Evening Attire had a pretty soft trip winning in New York; he's basically a Grade II type horse. If he wins the Classic, it's really not a very good field.
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Intrepid:
7:12 pm | Does Bank`s Hill loss in California make you question how good Rock of Gibralter may be since she narrowly lost to him.
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Andy Beyer:
7:13 pm | Banks Hill was stopped cold on the turn at Santa Anita, and I wouldn't hold that race against her. And after watching a couple of Rock of Gibraltar's races on film, I wouldn't be misled by the narrowness of his victories. The jock turns him loose late, and he motors past everybody.e
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Freen:
7:14 pm | Is Orientate good enough to win the Sprint?
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Andy Beyer:
7:15 pm | Absoultely. I was skeptical of him for a long time, but he showed at Saratoga that he could hook real tough speed horses and still win. But there is so much speed in the Sprint, he'll be under a lot of pressure. I wish I saw a really credible closer in the field.
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tact65:
7:15 pm | Did Toccet look good in the Champagne or did the rest of the field flounder?
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Andy Beyer:
7:15 pm | The Champagne was a sub-par field.
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Cantrunatall:
7:16 pm | What track bias are common at Arlington?
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Andy Beyer:
7:17 pm | I don't follow Arlington, but I do ready the track bias reports in the DRF Simulcast Weekly (and the guy who comments on Arlington is very judicious.) Based on the charts, the track seems to be a fair track most of the time. I'm not going to be approaching these races with the thought that the track might play a major role in determining winners--as I might, say, at Belmont Park.
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prizboy:
7:17 pm | What do you think of Bull Market.....isn`t he the type that is improving so much that he can be dangerous at a price.....sort of reminds me of Point Given
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Andy Beyer:
7:19 pm | Prizboy, Bull Market is no Point Given, no way. He looks like a speed type, probably just a sprinter. I thought both of those colts were staggering at the end of the Norfolk. And the speed figure of 92 is not nearly good enough for the Juvenile.
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Matt:
7:19 pm | Xtra Heat`s numbers don`t compare to the ones she ran at the end of last year. Do you think she was better as a 3-year-old and do you considered her over-rated in the Sprint?
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Andy Beyer:
7:21 pm | Well, she's been toying with weak opposition in a lot of her races, just as she was last year before she surprised a lot of us with that big race in the Sprint. But the fact remains that she hasn't been able to beat top males, and she's going to be under as much early pressure in this year's race as she was last. I think she'll run respectably, but I don't see her winning.
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chispires:
7:21 pm | What`s up w/ War Emblem - last (3) races he`s on he`s off , will he be on again come BC day at AP
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Andy Beyer:
7:23 pm | I don't think there's any mystery about War Emblem; he needs the lead to be effective. After breaking a little tardily the jock rated him off the lead in the Pacific Classic, just as he did in the Belmont, and the results were dismal. They've got to gun for the lead in the Classic to have a chance--but what's he going to do with E Dubai in the field? Even Baffert today expressed a lot of wo...
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Andy Beyer:
7:24 pm | worry about E Debai's presence. I don't see how War Emblem can win.
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superfan:
7:24 pm | Is the failure to allow Pleasantly Perfect to run in the Classic legitimate and should we applaud Arlington for protecting the horse?
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Andy Beyer:
7:26 pm | I think it's silly to run a world championship event under widely differing state regulations each year. Ideally, the Breeders Cup would set a medication policy that is fairly restrictive and insist that host track follow its rules. But you know that the drug-happy horsemen in Kentucky would never stand for that.
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flyer:
7:26 pm | Andy: Any probable favorite you`re looking forward to betting against?
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Andy Beyer:
7:28 pm | I think Azeri is going to be a significant underlay. She's been winning races on the lead as the 1-5 favorite against fields of six in California, and now has to cope against an equally tough speedster, Imperial Gesture, who has been terrific in her last two wins. Besides, there's some talk that she could be a horse of the year candidate, and I think that should be quashed.
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DRF_ADMIN:
7:28 pm | You may submit your questions to Andy Beyer now. Remember, this is a moderated chat - we'll get to as many questions as we can in the hour. Thanks for participating.
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tigers1901:
7:28 pm | Do you believe Juveline races should have been carded at a mile?
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Andy Beyer:
7:30 pm | I think the races with big fields are a lot fairer when they're run out of a chute around one turn. You draw post 14 with a short run to the first turn and you're screwed. I think that's more of an issue than the difference between 8 and 9 furlongs.
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Arcangues:
7:30 pm | Storm Flag Flying is the only horse I consider a lock. Do you see any any fillies that can beat Storm Flag Flying?
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Andy Beyer:
7:30 pm | No.
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losingticket:
7:30 pm | Yesterday there was snow at AP. How would cold weather affect the BC races. Obviously, quality horses like these don`t run in the winter at Aqueduct
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Andy Beyer:
7:31 pm | I don't think the horses will be affected, but I'll be unhappy going to a track in my parka. I personally wish they would forget this business of shifting the Cup all around the country and alternate it between California and Florida.
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dnarain:
7:31 pm | what do u think of macho uno`s chances in the Classic?
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Andy Beyer:
7:32 pm | Absoutely nil. After that last effort, I thought they'd retire him.
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LES:
7:32 pm | I have had some success in singling long shot closers in the bottom of my tri`s. Do you think Two Item Limit or Dollar Bill fit that mold?
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Andy Beyer:
7:33 pm | I question whether either of them is good enough, though the Distaff does look like a race that could fall apart, and maybe Two Item Limit could get into the superfecta, if not the tri.
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Poorsport:
7:34 pm | I have Kazzia @ 13-1 in the BC Future Bet Pool 2; How do you like her chances?
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Andy Beyer:
7:35 pm | She's running into three really tough customers--Golden Apples, Banks Hill and Islington--who all look better on paper than she does, in my opinion. That field she beat in the Flower Bowl wasn't so great.
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zebra:
7:35 pm | Do you think Kona Gold at 8 and Swept Overboard can win running their A races. They both seem to be training very wel
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Andy Beyer:
7:37 pm | The race sets up for them. But Swept Overboard was so terrible in his last race that I could not bet him--even with his great back figures. And even though Kona Gold does run well fresh, it's been quite a while since he's delivered an effort good enough to win agaginst this kind of competition.
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Celt.Pony:
7:38 pm | What do you make of the effort that Harlan`s Holday put in at the Jockey Club? Was the impressive 3rd a good sign?
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Andy Beyer:
7:39 pm | It was not a bad race, but I don't think Harlan's Holiday has ever run a race good enough to beat this bunch. His last race was his lifetime best fig, 109, and that's not going to do the job.
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ktmd:
7:39 pm | any thoughts on vindication
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Andy Beyer:
7:40 pm | Visually, he was very impressive in the Turfway race, but it's a lot easier to look impressive when everybody else is running slow. His figs are just too weak. I think he's going to be a big underlay.
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kasept:
7:40 pm | Andy, is there enough pace in the Turf to give Blazing Fury a shot? I know Jimmy Toner has had a hard time with horse all year, but he seemed to wake up at BEL in the Turf Classic...?
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Andy Beyer:
7:42 pm | The pace is the least of his problems. The American turf horses seem inferior in general to the Europeans. How is he going to outfinish horses like High Chapparal if he can't beat Denon?
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Beazer:
7:42 pm | Do you have a formula to use in order to convert Timeform Ratings to Speed Figures ?
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Andy Beyer:
7:44 pm | My rule of thumb is to subtract 14 points from the Timeform Rating to get a rough equvalent. Usually I would reject any such comparison--American racing is so different from European and the Timeform methodology is nothing like ours, I'm sure--but this conversion actually works pretty well. A superstar in Europe might get a Timeform in the upper 130s, which would translate to a Beyer in the ...
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Andy Beyer:
7:44 pm | mid 120s.
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red.obrien:
7:44 pm | How do you feel about BEAT HOLLOW in the Mile?
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Andy Beyer:
7:45 pm | I haven't understood why Beat Hollow has gotten so much hype this season, and he certainly got beat fair and square in the Keeneland race.
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zebra:
7:46 pm | Do you think Obrien wil go with Both Hawk Wing and Rock of Gibralter because of the $4m purse
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Andy Beyer:
7:48 pm | I would guess that they'll run in the Classic, even though at first glance it would seem to contradict common sense, particuarly in the case of Rock of Gibraltar, who would be a short price to complete a perfect season in the Mile. The reason is less the purse money than the future stud value. If Rock of Gibraltar wins the Mile, he's not going to enhance his reputation more than it is now.
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Andy Beyer:
7:48 pm | But if he wins on the dirt and wins at 1 1/4 miles, he's proved himself in a whole new dimension and sent his stud value into the stratosphere.
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sakhee:
7:49 pm | what`s your view on the Bc alternating between europe and america like the ryder cup
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Andy Beyer:
7:49 pm | screw the europeans. it's our money and our race.
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tjd29:
7:49 pm | What about Denon in the Turf? This guy fires every time and I believe the Euros are in for a shock. Will his odds be decently long?
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Andy Beyer:
7:50 pm | His odds will be solid. You'll get a price if you can beat the Euroopeans.
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geffery:
7:50 pm | What do you think of 2/3 rds of the patrons not having access to the main bldg or paddock area at AP?
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Andy Beyer:
7:51 pm | If it's 40 degrees, I certainly wouldn't want to be out there in Siberia. But I guess the BC people and Arlington understand the lmitations of the facilities and are doing what they have to do.
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Beazer:
7:51 pm | Which do you fancy more, Golan or High Chapparal in the Turf ?
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Andy Beyer:
7:52 pm | I wish I knew the Europeans well enough to give you an informed answer. But the Coolmore people are certainly getting the hang of sending horses over here to win, so I guess I'd lean to High Chapparal.
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Johann.Quatz:
7:53 pm | Perfect Drift looked a bit short in the Indiana Derby, but ran great and was able to stalk the pace.....do you think he han handle the jump to elders?
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Andy Beyer:
7:54 pm | The Indiana Derby-to-Breeders' Cup move doesn't exactly have a lot of history behind it. He'd shock me--and everybody else.
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chipboy:
7:54 pm | Will Bonapaw make the Sprint lead or do you think one of the fillies will make the pace?
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Andy Beyer:
7:55 pm | There's so much speed in the field that I don't see anybody getting loose. But nobody ever outruns Xtra Heat.
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multi.card:
7:55 pm | any reason for bobby frankel and bob baffert `s lack of success in these races
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Andy Beyer:
7:56 pm | I could offer some sinister theories, but I won't. You might say that their horses have historically peaked earlier in the season--Aptitude for example.
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Carborundum:
7:56 pm | Is Milwaukee Brew a legitimate deep closer in the Classic? His last two races were so bad...
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Andy Beyer:
7:58 pm | He was certainly a disappointment in the Gold Cup, and I couldn't bet him off that race, but he's got the right style and the back numbers, so I guess it wouldn't be a total shock if he pulled an upset.
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ThoroughbredCorp:
7:58 pm | Does Thunderello, if he gets in, have a chance in the Sprint? He`s done nothing wrong so far since the return..
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Andy Beyer:
7:59 pm | He was really impressive in that last win, but this is pushing him too fast too soon. Scott Lake should have picked one more soft spot for him and then pointed him for the De Francis Dash after these horses knock each other out.
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Brook:
7:59 pm | What about Zenda????????
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Andy Beyer:
8:00 pm | If she was good enough to win this, she should have won the Keeneland race. The F&M Turf Field looks awfully tough.
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Steve:
8:00 pm | Ballingarry`s 111...Legitimate fig or the result of him following a slow pace set by a 10-year-old who spit it and let him take over with ease? Additionally, in light of your analysis of Ballingary, what is your opinion on Falcon Flight?
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Andy Beyer:
8:03 pm | The fig was a legitimate number, but it was earned on such a soft course with such a low pace that I don't know if he'll duplicate it under such different conditions at Arlington. Falcon Flight has just had too many excuses and too many disapointemnts. He hasn't won anything more than a G III race in the last two years.
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Andy Beyer:
8:03 pm | Thanks, everybody, for joining us. Good luck at the Cup.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:04 pm | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup!
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:04 pm | The Breeders' Cup advance is on sale online, click the link to the right to purchase online. It will be on the newsstand tomorrow morning.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:04 pm | Be sure to check out Finished Lines (you didn't miss the giant ad to your right, did you?) - It's a collection of memorable writing on Thoroughbred racing that casual fans and hardcore bettors should all enjoy.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:04 pm | Thanks again for coming! Good luck to everyone!
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:05 pm | Oh yeah, we'll be posting a transcript in the BC section on DRF.com tonight or tomorrow.
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DRF_ADMIN:
8:05 pm | Good night.
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